WWJ V: The Broken Souls

[Roa_Aoife]

Gil, substance please. And the wolf won't be able to kill anyone if we lynch him/her today.

[JennyHallu]

Gee, Gil, I thought the wolf was knocking off the wolves...

Me, Gil, and Valesse, huh?

Ang suspects Valesse, but I still insist I think the wolf is Gil. He's only voted once, and that with no reasoning. He continues to give no reasoning. He's been completely useless to the village. I think it's a bold strategy for a wolf, but apparently a totally successful one...

EDIT: Xposted with Roa

[Anguirel]

Wait. Hang on Roa-could you clarify...I'm a little confused...

Are you saying that Jenny, Valesse and Gil are unknowns and the Gifteds are in the list you've declared innocent?

I think you probably are, as that makes most sense.

What luck! Since you've dreamt of the Hunter and Ranger, their abilities needn't be revealed. I'd forgotten to consider that side of the overlap angle.

Well...that proves my suspicions almost entirely correct.

I propose a double-lynch including Gil-Galad and one of the others. I don't think he's a wolf, but I'd like to see him punished for his lack of effort, to be honest...

As for the other two...Jenny is the more subtle of the two solutions, Valesse the more comprehensible.

For the three hours that remain, we must debate which of these two seems more likely.

[Nogrod]

Thank's Roa!

I hope you Anguirel will once more see the reasons behind my arguments now, as the seer has being of the same opinion? (It's not any more only "the innocent dupe, playing into the wolf's paws" thinking thatwise... - and you people call me aggressive and having a bad attitude! )

I just couldn't see the reason, why the ranger or the hunter should reveal themselves for the wolf to: catch immediately (ranger), and to willingly avoid to the end (hunter).

But now, we have wolf-hunting to do. So let's stick to it. I surely will start it right now.

PS. I think Thinlómien is right: Ang, you are quite persuasive! It took me some strength to voice my doubts. Happily the ranger or the hunter didn't reveal themselves...

EDIT: X-posted with quite a lot of stuff...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

I propose a double-lynch including Gil-Galad and one of the others. I don't think he's a wolf, but I'd like to see him punished for his lack of effort, to be honest...

As for the other two...Jenny is the more subtle of the two solutions, Valesse the more comprehensible.

For the three hours that remain, we must debate which of these two seems more likely.

That sounds pretty good to my ears. Having the moral hand in double-lynching by sayin it's a punishment. I like your rhetorics!

[Roa_Aoife]

I don't think Val would be foolish enough to bandwagon an innocent with her fellow wolf. I wouldn't be opposed to the double lynch idea though. Best case, we get a wolf. Worst case, we lynch two innocents, and we know who the last wolf is. However, if we want as many innocents to survive as possible, then I just dream of whoever we don't kill and reveal tomorrow, provided I am protected by the ranger.

If it comes to one person to kill, my vote will be for Jenny. I don't trust her. I have to go for a bit, but I should be back before voting closes.

[JennyHallu]

Well, my input here is probably, since I'm an unknown, minimally helpful.

I am going, offering no surprises or new insight whatsoever, to urge voting for Valesse. I think Gil's the Wolf, so if we have a double vote, I guess it doesn't really matter, but...well, it's my second game, and I'd like to be able to say I survived to the end.

So...in a spirit of absolute vanity, I think we should lynch Valesse and Gil.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

I wouldn't be opposed to the double lynch idea though. Best case, we get a wolf. Worst case, we lynch two innocents, and we know who the last wolf is. However, if we want as many innocents to survive as possible, then I just dream of whoever we don't kill and reveal tomorrow, provided I am protected by the ranger.

I'm kind of keen on Roa's idea. Double lynch is tactics to kill the wolf with maximum efficiency, and with the minimal effort by us. One lynch is a way to save innocents and have some grace in the ending.

[Anguirel]

Originally Posted by JennyHallu

Apparently, Sleepy will set up the wolves in obvious ways. While his hint about Ka required some insider information, it didn't require much.

I'm sorry Jenny-lately you've been rather a stalwart ally-but I recognise this emotion. It is frustration.

[JennyHallu]

I'm afraid I can be totally innocent and still think this game seems rather weighted. I have been your ally, Ang, and I am an innocent...but I still am allowed to feel rather sorry for the wolves.

[Anguirel]

Your defence is noted. But that sentiment will still be formidable evidence for the prosecution. On which note, a joke I read this morning:

PRISONER: As God is my judge I'm not guilty.

JUDGE: He's not, I am, you are.

[Valesse]

Clarification:
Now hang on Ang, I didn't say that I believed you to be the wolf, I just was trying to express how we need to be careful incase our remaining wolf decided to seem inventive. I could have done a much better job at wording it, but seeing as the basic impression seems to have been communicated, I'll leave it alone. I might be slippery, but after all the grief I had last game without being accused until the last Day, it's quite a bit more comfortable. I don't feel like a near-invisable chicken with it's head cut off.

Curve Ball:
I'd like to mention something that might make me look a little more guilty of these crimes, because it doesn't settle well with me that you're all using it as proof:

Originally Posted by Seery McSeererson

I don't think Val would be foolish enough to bandwagon an innocent with her fellow wolf.

I voted before Enca did yesterDay, and I'm quite sure she just voted for her life. Thank you, Roa for the support. I had a feeling you were the seer since... well I voiced it in #238

Originally Posted by Me

Roa brought it up, and seeing as I'm not exactly wary of her I'm very keen on looking in to it

So where are we now in the game? When the wolf starts to panic? By the sudden shortening of posts, and desperation in tone it sure looks like it.

[Nogrod]

One thing to consider:

Valesse was reserved against all-out mass-revelation, Jenny supported it, little by little ever more.

Now as Roa's dreams have been really succesful (no dead-ones in them), we have the win in our hand tomorrow the latest. But it might have been worse. In that case I think refraining fron mass-revelation (leaving it to the seer to judge, whethwer the situation was good enough for her to reveal herself - as it seems to have been) is the more sensible idea, and would then talk for Valesse and against Jenny?

X-posted with Valesse

[Nogrod]

...or against Gil...

[JennyHallu]

If my accusers (except for you, Valesse, that's sheer self-preservation, and I really do think you're innocent) would take a look, it will be noticed that I advocated leaving it to the seer to decide, and leaving the matter alone.

And my posts are short, dear fellow lynch-candidate, because the phone won't stop ringing. Any desperation you feel from my posts is probably the effect of a deep rooted desire to take a hammer to the telephone.

[Anguirel]

The discussion of mass-revelation is now galling to my ears. Nogrod, must you rub in that you were insufferably right?

Retrospectively examining Day 1, I note that my supposition that there was one Ka-voting wolf and one lone wolf was apparently incorrect.

The choices are-

Either two Ka-voting wolves, Enca and Jenny

Or one on each main bandwagon, Enca for Ka and Valesse for Nogrod

I'm just about to inspect exactly how instrumental Valesse was in the case against Nogrod.

As for this snippet I identified earlier...

Originally Posted by JennyHallu

Apparently, Sleepy will set up the wolves in obvious ways. While his hint about Ka required some insider information, it didn't require much.

...at the time I semi-agreed with it, saying it would be bad luck on the predators if more were set up. Interestingly, I was accused of fraternising with the enemy for this statement by none other than Enca.

Hurrying to her comrade's aid? Or accusing both Jenny and I?

[JennyHallu]

Or Gil could be a wolf, Ang, in which case your lone wolf theory would still be correct.

[Valesse]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

I'm just about to inspect exactly how instrumental Valesse was in the case against Nogrod.

It is rather funny how fast I went from voting for Nogrod's lynch to backing his ideas, isn't it? I was about to comment about it myself last night (IRL..in game it would have been 'this morning'), but it would have been quite a small comment and so offset from the rest of what I had said that it got editted out. I started the case against Nogrod, and kept it kicking and screaming until Holby's death. I knew that if the seers, who would have obviously dreamed for the subject of the second bandwagon felt I was wrong, then I was definitely wrong.

As I said Days ago, I'll take a the seers' word against my hunch anyDay.

As for Jenny's comment: My only notion that Gil-Galad might be the wolf is if, for some reason, no one was killed over Night. Since that didn't happen the only likelyhood left would be a very patient player silently sliding through the Day time. I'm more apt to trust him to be a sleepy villager than anything else, however.

[Thinlómien]

This is just a hunch, but in my opinion the remaining wolf is Gil or Valesse.

I did an analysis on Jenny yesterday, but didn't find anything wolfish in her. She might, of course, be a clever wolf.

[JennyHallu]

I'm not sure exactly how to take that. Thank you for the support...but I hope you don't mean that I'm not a clever villager.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by JennyHallu

I'm not sure exactly how to take that. Thank you for the support...but I hope you don't mean that I'm not a clever villager.

You are a medicore-brained villager or a clever wolf.

[JennyHallu]

Mediocre...what a terrible salvation...

I like to think of myself as clever. Oh well, probably good for me to have my vanity knocked down a peg or two every so often...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

The discussion of mass-revelation is now galling to my ears. Nogrod, must you rub in that you were insufferably right?

Well, after your flaming rhetorics that included all possible expressions for stupid and simple idiots & dopes not thinking like you, I couldn't resist the temptation to mention it one more time...

But in all earnest, I think, the attitude of our candidates towards your idea is worth noting.

Here's Jenny's day with the mass-reveal -tactics:

277
As for the Gifted-reveal, I'm not sure if that's the way to go or not. I'll wait until more have chimed in to see what's going on.

280
And as for the mass reveal, it seemed to me that we have only one wolf, but three gifteds, all hidden from that wolf. This is my second game, dear Ang-with-all-the-reincarnations. My immediate assumption was that keeping them hidden was a better plan. I am willing to admit being wrong, but a single person saying so, no matter the experience, does not, in my mind, an irrefutable argument make. I cannot defend myself against you if a disagreement makes me wolvish.

284
I'm beginning (after a half-hour's drive home from work, with nothing to do but listen to the radio and think) to understand the benefits of your revelation scheme.

292
Gah! I'm so confused. Are we revealing, or not? And where's Roa?

305
Ang, it sounds like you're right, that mass revelation is a good idea. However, if the seer hasn't dreamed about you, I could see you making him/her very very paranoid. At this point, it's the seer's choice whether or not to reveal, and I can't see anything anyone says making one whit of difference.

Read it as you will. One could read there the gradual realization of the wolf for "that's MY best plan" with afterthougts (not to be seen too enthusiastic about it) or then just a lost mind wondering, what really should be the best...

I'll look at Valesse's reactions in a minute...

[Nogrod]

Well. Here is Valesse thinking about this mass-revelation:

290
This "Great Reveal" seems a little too risky to me.

Nogrod pointed out the math (post #283) but with such stylish phrases as:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ang
If you consider the situation, it will become clear to you that only a desperate and cornered werewolf would shun its advantages.

I don't blame him for the foggy post ending. I can see the advantages to this plan, but frankly I believe we should not be so hasty as to give out our roles quite yet. Lets not just take an idea and run with it... after all I remember one wolf that tricked me into playing his little game which I survived, but only just.

That isn't to say I feel that our honorable Anguriel is a wolf for forging this, but that there is still a possiblity, and we have to remember that we're offering our trust in what may just be a devious plan. Perhaps Ang did not see the math when he thought this up, but the wolf definitely has now. Its a matter of odds, and those might still be far too wide.

If it is the village's want to go through with it, and they have faith in it, I'll do my part, but as for now until I am reassured, it just doesn't seem fool-proof yet.

So a beautiful defence by a clever wolf or a reasoned "let's not hurry" from a dutiful villager brave enough to counter Ang's very aggressive rhetorics? Or was the rhetorics so strong that it would take a wolf to stand against it?

And a remainder: these both collections are from the time before Roa revealed herself! I've not considered the one's following the revelation, because everything after that is highly suspicious as an evidence...

[Anguirel]

Had Roa not been lucky and skilful with her dreaming, though, (which a wolf was not to know) mass-revelation would not have been a wolf's best plan...

[Valesse]

Okay, well I am almost out of time before class starts, so unless I act now- which for some reason feels very early- I can't post my vote. It seems like the general public wants to double lynch either Jenny or myself with Gil, so I'll be productive in my absence. I hope Jenny follows in my example and votes as I have done.

++ Gil-Galad

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by JennyHallu

Mediocre...what a terrible salvation...

I like to think of myself as clever. Oh well, probably good for me to have my vanity knocked down a peg or two every so often...

If you admit that you're a wolf, I admit that you're a clever one...

EDIT: cross-posted with Valesse

[Thinlómien]

We must be very careful with this double-lynch. We must plan it so, that Gil or Jenny can't destroy the balance with his/her vote.

[JennyHallu]

As it is, I will probably accept Val's reasoning and vote Gil, but I won't vote for a while yet in case anyone has any other instructions. Please don't ask me to make a vote that will definitively spell my doom, that wouldn't be nice.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

Had Roa not been lucky and skilful with her dreaming, though, (which a wolf was not to know) mass-revelation would not have been a wolf's best plan...

Well just this question was the one that took my mind over all the spare time I had today - which wasn't much.

I think seer-revelation was up to the seer, according to how well the dreams had gone. But with a poor result on the part of the seer, it would be better not to reveal our other gifteds. It should have to be seen, as the time of the vote would approach...

But anyhow. What I find disturbing right now, is the real possibility of Gil being the wolf - and playing a very lousy game indeed! I think both Valesse and Jenny could be granted the benefit of doubt - or accused as clever wolves... on the basis of these thoughts.

But Gil has posted twice today, once some seeming substance (289), another time kind of nonsense (320). And he still haven't clarified his Jenny vote, even though he promised it, as an excuse to bear with him! I find that action truly suspicious - and unfair on any standards...

X-postin with Valesse onwards

[Nogrod]

Suggestion!

Let's vote for Gil alone, if we don't have an overwhelming suspicion over either Jenny or Valesse.

If we are not sure of our vote, we may kill an innocent. So why not take Gil out as a bad sport - as suspicious as any one of the two?

So no double votes. Let's save one innocent life being killed by us? Someone will be dead next night or then not. But that life is killed by the villain, not by our own hands...

Reason: grace!

PS. We as a village win this one anyhow, why not to do it in style?

[Thinlómien]

The main question stands Jenny or Valesse?

I'd go for Valesse, but as this is a rather serious moment, I think I have to reread their posting to be able to say anything clever.

If I find anything, I inform you.

EDIT: cross-posted with the Touché-man

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Suggestion!

Let's vote for Gil alone, if we don't have an overwhelming suspicion over either Jenny or Valesse.

If we are not sure of our vote, we may kill an innocent. So why not take Gil out as a bad sport - as suspicious as any one of the two?

So no double votes. Let's save one innocent life being killed by us? Someone will be dead next night or then not. But that life is killed by the villain, not by our own hands...

Reason: grace!

PS. We as a village win this one anyhow, why not to do it in style?

If you think "style" is as many of us innocents dead as it's possible...

But your suggestion needs some thought.

[Anguirel]

No, Nogrod. I promise you that voting for Gil alone might feel terribly righteous, but it is an intellectually dead, and fatally easy, approach.

You say yourself that Gil is not behaving properly. As a result, he does not deserve proper attention. The way to solve the problem, and to teach him that his technique does not work, is to lynch him casually, in passing, as if he were not a potential murderer but a petty thief.

Single-lynching Gil would almost certainly delight the heart of the hidden wolf.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If we are not sure of our vote, we may kill an innocent.

If we are sure about our vote, we can still kill an innocent.

[Thinlómien]

The question, in other words, is: is it more important that we have clean consciences or that Gil gets a lesson?

[Thinlómien]

Or rather: does Gil deserve a lesson that might cost us more lynched innocents?

[Thinlómien]

If we lynch only Gil the vote has bigger chances to go according to our plan.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

No, Nogrod. I promise you that voting for Gil alone might feel terribly righteous, but it is an intellectually dead, and fatally easy, approach.

You say yourself that Gil is not behaving properly. As a result, he does not deserve proper attention. The way to solve the problem, and to teach him that his technique does not work, is to lynch him casually, in passing, as if he were not a potential murderer but a petty thief.

Single-lynching Gil would almost certainly delight the heart of the hidden wolf.

Well. The game is to be over tomorrow, now isn't it? Roa will be safe etc... It's just from which side you do look at it.

Not bloodying our hands any more is a case in point.

So is, what you say. Although, I don't know, how casual that last butchering might be, if Gil turned out a wolf?

But it would feel quite bad to just lynch two, by our hope to secure our own personal necks? One of us would die honourably in the hands of a WW if we get it wrong from 1/3! But we would have done it beautifully!

And just for the chance of it, that both Valesse and Jenny might be innocents and played well - or as an recognition of one of them's good game as a wolf (against Gil's bad one)?

Well, I'm not sure, but it would seem right...

[Thinlómien]

Whatever we decide, it should be done soon. We have only half an hour.

Sleepy's texts said that people despised Gil and that Valesse was a strange woman and about Jenny not anything wolvish. But I doubt those texts are good evidence.