Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVIII: The Play’s The Thing…

[Boromir88]

So, does that implicate Boro? Might it implicate Nilp? I am not so sure, because I remain fairly comfortable about both of them (although I don't like the sound of you sloping off to the sidelines Boro - your input is most certainly needed at this grave time).

I didn't mean it as in I won't be posting and doing what I can. It is my duty as magistrate.

Sauce, if you find lmp pulling a wolfish blind over our eyes I will put my trust in you. But, being able to know where lmp is coming from I'm inclined to believe he is telling the truth. Of course, I would not put it pas lmp trying to trick us...but falling under heavy suspicion, when you know you are innocent, but everyone is attacking you...you just have the feeling of giving it up and not caring what happens to you. You just get the, ok go ahead and lynch me, you will all see your flawed ways when I'm innocent...I hope you get what I'm trying to say. Coming from lmp's situation before, you just get a sense of giving it up. So, that's I now find it hard to pull the platform from under him. It could very well be a clever wolvish trick, one I would not put past him of doing, but I certainly understand where he is coming from.

Which brings us to the feud between LmP and Boromir... I am not convinced that they are at odds with eachother. This again could be some wolvish tactic.

Wolves have two allies. I have one ally...myself, so to put it bluntly you're wrong.

Also note that Boromir eased the pressure off of me on day two. If I had been lynched he could have vindicated himself.

Umm yeah if I have no reason to be suspicious of you then I typically don't suspect you. I suspected you on Day 1 due to your vote for me which seemed you pretty much just going with whatever the popular belief was at the time...People started suspecting me, you suspected me, people started suspecting lhuna, you suspected lhuna. You said lhuna was more suspicious, then say I was more suspicious. That was my reason I suspected you. But, I admitted, and was told by others, that you one could be an innocent that likes to put your trust in other people, or you could be a bandwagonning wolf that is trying to go with the flow, I believe the former. I also found it odd that you received 3 votes yesterday when I surely thought that it would be tar-ancalime who would be facing death, which I am fully planning to be looking into.

Who I am suspicious of right now...

Aiwendil: Farael has made some intriguing posts and I keep on coming back to the same thing I've noticed and others have noticed...Aiwendil's been cleverly getting us to look at lmp, without making a full commitment saying he's a wolf.

Spawn and Eomer: When the game progresses and innocents are dying I suspect those that take a semi-vocal/leader role. You know they just seem so insightful, and willing to help, it's hard to suspect them, but it's hard not to when it's innocents getting lynched instead of wolves.

The quiet ones are also falling into my suspiciouns. Glirdan, Kath, and Formendacil, anytime we start getting to where the quiet ones slip out of discussion and aren't mentioned I get worried. There is likely a wolf that is low key and is sort of cast-aside/forgotten about.

The no-vote of Kath I have a hard time figuring out too. Yes, I know she wasn't around for a lot of the day, and she didn't want to make a random vote (perhaps she's got a different philosophy then me, but I always think everyone should vote).

It looks wolfish because:
1. By staying out of voting she doesn't get her hands dirty in the lynching of an innocent.

It looks innocent because:

1. Lhuna's fate was already sealed, so her vote wouldn't hold any difference in the outcome.

2. Wanting to make a logical vote, and not pull a name out of the air and vote, because of her absense.

So if for my list right now:
Aiwendil
Spawn
Eomer
Kath

[The Saucepan Man]

Day 1 Lhuna voters (in order)

The Saucepan Man
Eomer of the Rohirrim
dancing spawn of ungoliant

Well, I was wrong about Lhuna obviously. But she did look the most likely to be a Wolf to me at the time.

Eomer drew her level on 2 votes with Gil-Galad, Glirdan and Boro. An understandable vote, perhaps, given that it was sensible to keep the voting tight, so as to make it difficult for the Wolves. But it could also have been a Wolfish attempt to put four innocents (assuming Glirdan and Boro are innocent) ahead in the voting.

Dancing spawn put her on 3 votes, ahead of Boro, Glirdan and tar-ancalime (on 2 votes each), at a time when Gil was on 4 votes. Not sure what that tells us, but it could again have been aimed at promoting innocents as the main candidates for lynching.

Day 2 Lhuna voters (in order)

Glirdan
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Anguirel
mormegil
littlemanpoet

I still think Glirdan's early first vote for Lhuna on Day 2 looks un-Wolfish. Lhuna attracted the third highest number of votes on Day 1 and was therefore a possible contender for lynching on Day 2 at the time Glirdan voted for her. An early vote can attract suspicion. An early vote for someone who is later lynched and proved innocent moreso. Conversely, therefore, I think that Glirdan's vote speaks in his favour.

Eomer is the only villager to have voted twice for Lhuna and one of only three villagers to have voted twice for known innocents (Glirdan and morm are the others). So that immediately makes him look suspicious to me. Which makes me wonder whether a Wolf would have voted so riskily two Days running. Then again, an Eomer-Wolf would surely be a bold Wolf. Dancing spawn brought up some good points concerning Eomer yesterday and I think that it may be worth looking back over his posts and spawn's analysis of him.

Anguirel was innocent although his vote, putting Lhuna ahead as it did, would otherwise have looked suspicious today.

Now mormegil, like Eomer, has voted twice for known innocents and his vote for Lhuna put her 2 votes ahead of anyone else. So that all makes him look quite suspicious. However, there's not much else to go on at the moment on morm and I still have the feeling that, if lmp is a Wolf, morm is probably innocent.

Littlemanpoet's vote was the one that sealed Lhuna's fate. Or was it? No, it wasn't. He voted last, at a time when Lhuna was on 4 votes and he was on 3. So Lhuna was already facing the gallows when he voted. Now, if lmp is a Wolf, why would he vote for an innocent who was guaranteed to be lynched? Why not place a "safe" vote elsewhere, or even a Wolf-on-Wolf vote?

Originally Posted by lmp

Gotta vote, and I want to survive.

He claimed that he was voting to save himself. When in fact he wasn't at all, as he surely would have known (even if he cross-posted with Boro, who voted for him). A "safe" vote at that stage might have looked suspicious, but his vote for Lhuna allows him to claim that he was forced into it (or, at least, that he thought he was).

So lmp remains my prime suspect. But, if there were two Wolves among the Lhuna votes, I have a feeling that Eomer might fit the bill.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

But, being able to know where lmp is coming from I'm inclined to believe he is telling the truth.

Your understanding does you credit. But I have a feeling that you are having a Woolly Wolfskin pulled over your eyes. Call me a cynic, but lmp's lament just seems far too self-serving and convenient to me, at a time when he looked likely to come under suspicion. And I was struck by his wallowing (whether in self-pity or remorse) when, if he is innocent, his time here would be better served actually trying to find a Wolf. Sorry, but I just don't buy it.

I realise that, in my analysis of lmp's vote for Lhuna, I did not take account of the fact that Kath could yet have voted. however, it would have made no difference. Lhuna's fate was sealed by the time lmp voted for her.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Aiwendil: Farael has made some intriguing posts and I keep on coming back to the same thing I've noticed and others have noticed...Aiwendil's been cleverly getting us to look at lmp, without making a full commitment saying he's a wolf.

Yes, I thought so too. So I took the liberty of looking back over Aiwendil's contributions over Days 1 and 2. And I can really see nothing in them to concern me. He has seemed sensible and willing to help find these fiends throughout. Which might, I suppose, be regarded as suspicous in itself. But I don't think that it's nearly enough to go on. There are others looking far more suspicious at the moment, to my mind. Farael's case, as far as I can see, boils down to an observation that Aiwendil has continually put forward ideas (whether strategies or suspects) and then backed off from them. I don't think that this fully characterises Aiwendil's contribution but, to the extent that there is any merit in it, I think that is Aiwendil's way - a tendency to over-analyse and see both sides of an argument. I can sympathise because I sometimes have the same problem. As for his supposed "flip-flopping" on lmp, given that I think that lmp is a Wolf I don't see any force in this at all. If they are fellow Wolves, Aiwendil has not exactly been doing his companion many favours.

And while Farael's posts may be intriguing as far as Aiwendil is concerned, they have not exactly been helpful in many other respects. He has focussed almost entirely on one villager. There are (currently) 13 other villagers, and three Wolves on the loose. It seems to me that he would better serve the village by looking for all of them, not just the one that he thinks he has found.

Indeed, the more I think about it, the more I think that it would be a fairly sensible Wolfish tactic to concentrate on one target, for that way he does not risk incriminating his Wolfish colleagues and avoids incriminating himself when innocents are lynched. His single-minded pursuit of Aiwendil has enabled him to avoid much suspicion to date and seemingly rather given him a cloak of innocence. Of course, he will look bad if Aiwendil is lynched and found to be innocent, but perhaps it is intended that he will then serve as a sacrifice to cover his fellows.

Now, I need to take a look at Eomer. I am not going to be around much tomorrow, so I want to collect my thoughts tonight as much as I can.

[tar-ancalime]

And while Farael's posts may be intriguing as far as Aiwendil is concerned, they have not exactly been helpful in many other respects. He has focussed almost entirely on one villager. There are (currently) 13 other villagers, and three Wolves on the loose. It seems to me that he would better serve the village by looking for all of them, not just the one that he thinks he has found.

All right, watch me pull an lmp:

That's what I've thought since Day 1. (Really! What, you don't believe me?
)

Farael's accusations are either based on a refusal to understand Aiwendil's sometimes subtle reasoning and willingness to consider several viewpoints and shades of gray (which style, as I have found to my own detriment, can be taken as a refusal to commit to one line of thinking), or they are totally unfounded. Nothing about Aiwendil's posts has made me think "Wolf!"

This is not to say, though, that I want to write off Aiwendil as innocent. He has me stymied; but Farael's crusade against him reflects much more poorly on the accuser than on the accused.

Now, to dancing spawn. Remember Day 1? When I thought that long post was a little suspicious? I backed off, both because of her calm response and because it didn't bother anyone else. But now? Now? I'm starting to look back at it. She's successfully set up a little feud with Eomer, which led Boromir to post this:

Spawn and Eomer: When the game progresses and innocents are dying I suspect those that take a semi-vocal/leader role. You know they just seem so insightful, and willing to help, it's hard to suspect them, but it's hard not to when it's innocents getting lynched instead of wolves.

If you ask me, they both look a little squidgy in their "argument," which strikes me as a little contrived.

I also don't want to overlook mormegil. He's been flying under the radar for the entire game. I have nothing more concrete than that, but he's making me nervous.

I"m not ready to let up on Garin yet, either--he could easily be hiding behind his personality, hoping to slide by on "Oh, he's just being Garin."

Where does this leave me? To be honest I'm at a loss. I haven't got any likely innocents at all--perhaps I'm becoming a little paranoid. I'm going to wait and see, while watching Farael, Eomer, and spawn very carefully. I'm going to think hard about lmp's sacrificial stance today (sacrificial la--er, wolf?) I'm going to continue to suspect Garin.

And all of this while trying hard not to forget the rest of the village--as I said, I haven't seen anyhting that screams "innocent."

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

One other point that occurs to me: there is one villager who has so far been more or less exempt from suspicion. I speak of The Saucepan Man. Of course, he's seemed helpful. That's as one would expect. I suppose this is a question that inevitably comes up at about this point in the game, but why is he still alive? I think it would be wise to review his posts carefully.

Because even though he's most likely innocent, he's doing the werewolves' job for them and gunning hard for an innocent (I have been no help in this regard), thus taking attention away from them.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by SPM

Indeed, the more I think about it, the more I think that it would be a fairly sensible Wolfish tactic to concentrate on one target, for that way he does not risk incriminating his Wolfish colleagues and avoids incriminating himself when innocents are lynched. His single-minded pursuit of Aiwendil has enabled him to avoid much suspicion to date and seemingly rather given him a cloak of innocence. Of course, he will look bad if Aiwendil is lynched and found to be innocent, but perhaps it is intended that he will then serve as a sacrifice to cover his fellows.

Alright, I'll come clean now... no, I'm not a wolf by a long shot, but on Day 1 I was just having fun. I chose the villager who looked most suspicious to my eyes and made a case against him. The problem is, as I went through my 'case' I started finding some things that made me feel uneasy. On Day 2, I was rather convinced that there's something fishy with Aiwendil, but toDay I have a different idea.

I have exposed my doubts on the Aiwendil-LMP situation. Aiwendil is quick to raise some suspicions and even quicker to exonerate him... which has me thinking is likely a well thought-out wolfish plan. What I find most intriguing is that he actually has some suspects (other than LMP) from which he demands answers... and yet any comments from LMP seem to erase his thoughts. Of course, we could be dealing with a very empathic innocent villager, but I think I have a plan to put forward

It is still early and we are many innocents. Now is the time to take on risks, because the more we wait, the more difficult and costly it will be should we make a mistake. Now, I assume we all agree that LMP's behaviour has been far from easy to gauge. He will continue to be a distraction as days go on. I will leave it to others who have been paying closer attention to LMP to dig up information against him, if they feel like it, as I don't have time to do it myself right now. But given that my suspicions of Aiwendil are based mostly on his 'relationship' with LMP, today I would be in favour of lynching LMP. That would give me some information on Aiwendil and worst case scenario, we get rid of the most controversial villager so far.

Yet I'm not saying let's condemn LMP just yet, I would appreciate it if someone (other than me) analised his behaviour. I dont have time to do it right now and I doubit I will have time tomorrow

I realize you could think this as a response on those criticizing me for going after Aiwendil only but.... if you think about it, this would be an excelent way of digging up even more information about Aiwendil

[tar-ancalime]

from Farael:

today I would be in favour of lynching LMP. That would give me some information on Aiwendil and worst case scenario, we get rid of the most controversial villager so far.

If it's information on Aiwendil you want, then it's Aiwendil you should vote for. It's an unfortunate fact of the game that the only accurate information comes from death.

But the second half of your statement is, while a little cold-blooded, intriguing. Get rid of those people who are muddying things. Back on Day 1 lmp told me that too much clarity could only help the wolves to hide. I couldn't disagree with this more. I think that smokescreens and side arguments are perfect wolf hiding places. You're absolutely right that if we're going to take any risks (i.e. lynch someone we're not sure is a wolf), it's got to be today. I think the only defensible reason for doing something like this is to eliminate someone who's not contributing, who's generating confusion, or who seems to be obscuring things deliberately. Someone who's making it more difficult to find the wolves. The test wouldn't be "wolvish/non-wolvish;" it would be "useful/non-useful." I'm not sure I like this idea (is it yours or mine at this point?) enough to run with it all Day, still less if I like it enough to try to organize a lynching around it, but I'd like to put it out there:

Is there anyone whose absence would make our job easier, regardless of whether or not they turn out to be innocent?

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Farael

It is still early and we are many innocents. Now is the time to take on risks, because the more we wait, the more difficult and costly it will be should we make a mistake. Now, I assume we all agree that LMP's behaviour has been far from easy to gauge. He will continue to be a distraction as days go on. I will leave it to others who have been paying closer attention to LMP to dig up information against him, if they feel like it, as I don't have time to do it myself right now. But given that my suspicions of Aiwendil are based mostly on his 'relationship' with LMP, today I would be in favour of lynching LMP. That would give me some information on Aiwendil and worst case scenario, we get rid of the most controversial villager so far.

This seems quite reasonable to me. I'm not opposed to this plan.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

This seems quite reasonable to me. I'm not opposed to this plan.

LMP, you are smart... I'll concede that. What ever happens, you have earned my respect. Still, I think your death will benefit us all more than your life. I apologise if you are an Ordo and I might be in trouble if you happen to be the Hunter, but I still think you have got to go.

tar-ancalime,
You started from my idea and moved a little in your own direction. Not that there is anything wrong with that. I don't think we should make it a policy to go after the useless folk, specially because as I argued before, wolves would just have to appear useful and they'd save their foul skins. Yet this time I think that LMP's death would be more useful than his life. If anything, he is mudding up the water, while it's almost heart-breaking to see him post the way he has, and almost giving up his own life for the sake of the village... I don't buy it. He might be a villager resigned to his fate(Eru knows it has happened to.... my soul in other incarnations) but his behaviour is very troublesome. From what I hear, he has the potential to be a very good contributor to the village and so far, he has only created controversy. I'm sorry LMP, but your death will clear the waters some

And Tar-ancalime, I can't get Aiwendil lynched today, I haven't gained enough support... that's why I'm trying other tactics. Sort of like politics if you think about it. I can't get away with what I want so I'll compromise, support other ideologies if in turn it will help me gain support for mine. And if we find LMP to be one of those fiends, who will look at me in the eye and say Aiwendil is not?

[The Saucepan Man]

I thought that dancing spawn had made some fine points about Eomer, and I was right. I addressed Eomer's votes above. Here's what else struck me on looking through his contributions.

Originally Posted by Eomer@#42

I believe (and please debate this with me) that on Day One, wolves are going to be mostly timid: not too keen on offering big ideas, convoluted strategies, or hardline accusations.

I'm not sure that I like the suggestion that Wolves will act in a particular way, as it risks narrowing the scope of our search for them too much. I think it was Anguirel who said that the Wolves will play to their strengths and act accordingly, and I rather agree with our poor deceased banker. Having said, that, Eomer did not offer any big ideas, convoluted strategies or hardline accusations himself on Day 1, so (as dancing spawn pointed out) he fits his own pattern. A bluff?

Originally Posted by Eomer@#55

I suppose that at least one and probably more are going to be extremely 'friendly', if you understand me

The same point applies, I think.

Originally Posted by Eomer@#72

Saucepan Man, you have also commented on tar's vote. Do you think there could possibly be unity between tar and dancing spawn, and that they tried to insert a little bit of early animosity between them?

I don't think I ever responded to this. Well, since you ask, it's possible, given that they have both voted for you on alternate days but I don't see anything stronger than that. I'm still viewing tar as an unlikely Wolf because of Holby's Day 1 vote and dancing spawn has done nothing to arouse my suspicion.

But why did you address that question specifically to me? Spawn noted that it seemed odd, and I am inclined to agree.

Originally Posted by Eomer@#72

I'm not accusing you Morm; I just find the post to be rather strange and would appreciate an explanation.

Eomer does not seem too keen on making accusations. Merely raising suspicions, without really pressing them home. He does the same thing with Formendacil in #78: "It could be nothing, but ...", and again on Day 2, when he calls Form "tricksy" then appears to back off and then reconsiders (#171).

To be fair, he does accuse Farael (#178). And, while I agree with what he says, Farael was a fairly safe target, having largely been deemed innocent for his attack on Aiwendil.

When spawn makes her case (#190), Eomer responds rather defensively (#193), pointing out the ways in which he claims to have helped the village. In fact, he has offered very little in the way of substance so far. He also tries to defuse her argument by drawing a difference between "suspicion" and "accusation", and later claims that he has suspected people (#200). Actually, Eomer, I would say that you have raised suspicions without really driving them home.

All in all, Eomer is certainly beginning to look suspicious in my mind. And now tar-ancalime is seeing collusion between spawn and Eomer. Hmm, I'll have to think about that. But tomorrow. Right now, I'm whacked.

PS I agree, Farael, that lynching lmp could be quite revealing. Quite possibly about Aiwendil, but also about mormegil, Boro (who has backed off from him today - I'm not discounting that possible Wolf-on-Wolf vote), and now quite possibly you too. I have already gone back over his posts myself and he looks pretty suspicious to me, but I don't have any time now to do a full analysis. I might have a chance tomorrow, but I can't promise anything. Or perhaps, given that I might otherwise be accused of trying to "influence" the village ( ), people should look back themselves and make up their own minds.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by lmp

This seems quite reasonable to me. I'm not opposed to this plan.

Hmm, another thing to consider. Could be a bluff ...?

[Boromir88]

Aiwendil, I think we always have to consider why someone like Sauce is still alive. The way I've always seen things (and debate with me if you like) why would the wolves kill someone who can be a big influence over the village if that person hasn't caught on to a wolf? Understand what I'm saying?

There's no reason for the wolves to kill someone like Sauce if he hasn't lynched a wolf yet. Once a wolf goes down then I would expect Sauce (or someone like him) to be a prime wolf kill at night. But, there's no reason for the wolves to kill an influential player, that knows innocents will be willing to trust his judgement if he/she hasn't found a wolf.

Of course someone like Sauce who can be so influential (whether he intends to be or not) makes a scary wolf player.

This seems quite reasonable to me. I'm not opposed to this plan.

If you're not opposed would you be in favor of sacrificing yourself for the benefit of the village? If it comes down to it.

One thing I will make clear though, before I depart again...Let's not turn this day into a lmp bandwagon voting (I'm speaking to you innocents out there). It tells us nothing if we have lmp accumulating a wide majority of the votes. By jumping onto the lmp train will only help the wolves and gives us no insight into today's voting.

[Aiwendil]

Farael wrote:

I have exposed my doubts on the Aiwendil-LMP situation. Aiwendil is quick to raise some suspicions and even quicker to exonerate him... which has me thinking is likely a well thought-out wolfish plan.

"Exonerate"? You continue to (wilfully?) misconstrue me. Yesterday, my top suspects were Garin and Formendacil. As I mentioned several times, I also suspected LMP and, to some extent, Tar; I simply didn't think them as likely to be wolves as the former two. At that point, the only thing that looked particularly suspicious about LMP to me was his vote for Boromir.

Matters are a bit different toDAY. For again on DAY 2 LMP had a sudden change of heart near the end of the DAY - and one that brought him more into line with public opinion. Perhaps he's simply being suggestible. But LMP is clever, and I doubt that he would be so easily swayed.

So toDAY, LMP is certainly one of my top suspects. I think that lynching him toDAY might not be a bad idea at all. (I suppose now you'll accuse me of flip-flopping . . .)

Call me stubborn if you must, but Garin also still looks distinctly wolvish to me. He's voted for Boromir twice now, but with little apparent reason. The only clear charge against Boromir that I can gather from Garin's posts is that Boromir defended himself when Anguirel attacked him. Garin looks to me like a wolf trying to play it safe by going after a single victim.

. . . which brings me to Farael. SPM has made a good point about him - namely, that what he's doing looks like an excellent tactic for a wolf. Pick a single target and go after him relentlessly. It would have several advantages for a wolf: 1. it's unexpected; 2. it will probably be deemed "bold" and perhaps "over-bold" (but is it really?); 3. the wolf thereby avoids getting engaged in any discussion outside his specific, chosen topic. Of course, Farael has backed off a bit toDAY and is now discussing other villagers. A "flip flop"? I would certainly be well within my rights to make the same charge against him that he made against me. But of course I don't think it's unreasonable to change your mind from time to time. I'll be interested to watch Farael now, though, and see how he fares when he's not just attacking me.

My other suspect from yesterday was Formendacil. He still looks suspicious to me. He's been fairly quiet, which may mean he's trying to "fly under the radar". I do understand and sympathize, though, that he's not feeling well. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for the moment.

The Saucepan Man wrote:

Obviously, I cannot say why the Wolves have chosen not to kill me. But I could ask the same question about a number of other villagers - including you, Master Cook.

All right, point taken. Nonetheless, I have come under suspicion. Unless I'm much mistaken, you have not. The closest I can find is LMP's statement early on that he found something "off" with you. Much as LMP is looking lupine to me right now, I can't help but think that maybe he was right. Actually, there are two fairly curious things to note here. One is the fact that the wolves haven't killed you yet, despite the fact that you've been under no suspicion - which, I'll grant, may not be all that strange. It is only DAY 3, after all. What worries me more is the fact itself that you haven't come under any real suspicion. Are we all simply so accustomed to SPM being innocent that we cannot conceive the possibility that he's a wolf? I'm not saying that SPM is a chief suspect at the moment, but I do think that he's been granted "innocent" status - if only de facto - far too easily.

As for everyone else - I'm afraid I've spent far too much time examining the few that I suspect and far too little looking at everyone else. In particular, I want to go back and take a closer look at Spawn, Eomer, and Kath - about whom others have made some interesting points.

To summarize, then, I'd say that my top suspects at this point are:
LMP
Garin

And my not-so-top suspects (but suspects nonetheless) are:
Formendacil
Farael
SPM

Edit: crossed with Boromir

[Garin]

Sauce said: Actually, I rather think that I am ever destined to be an ordinary villager

I agree. What I was trying to say say is that at one point you have to be wolf instead of the perrenial ordo. Statistically it must happen sometime soon.

I'm inclined to always think you are an ordinary villager, but that could be a dangerous assumption.

[Garin]

Aiwendil: Garin looks to me like a wolf trying to play it safe by going after a single victim.

It looks like Garin is just being consistent. I don't take my votes lightly and at least I haven't killed an innocent, unlike others.
If Boro ends up being innocent you are allowed to condemn me.
Our dearly departed Anguirel suspected Boro on both days and only voted for Lhuna because Boro hadn't a chance of being lynched that day.
You reasoning is very specious.
If I was a wolf I wouldn't vote so early against someone who seems to have turned his gaze onto someone else and thusly raise his ire.

Edit: I'm starting to regret I already voted, by the way. I just need to help someone move to a new apartment real-time tomorrow so I am not sure If I could get back at a later date. This might be the last you hear from me although I hope to put up a substantial post before then ... no promises. Moving is a very unpredictable thing. I know this is a strange edit but I might need to triple post if I can find the strength to stay up a little longer.

[littlemanpoet]

I see SPM's post #250 addresses some of the same things I've been finding.

After having read through many, many posts, I've arrived at the following conclusions. The following individuals are clearly innocent based on their thoroughgoing contributions:

Innocent:
SPM
Boromir
Tar-ancalime
Spawn
Aiwendil


The following individuals are probably innocent, based on their less than thoroughgoing contributions.

Probably innocent:
Celuien (reasoned and helpful - the seer issue is a red herring)
Farael (forthright and trying to do his part)
Formendacil (harder to say, but his defense for Day 1 voting seemed reasonable and persuasive)
Glirdan (started to seem suspicious at first, but began to seem more helpful and contributing)
Kath (on the strength of believing in me)
Mormegil (I would have him on the 'clearly' list except that he accused for one person then voted for another on Day 2)

That leaves three individuals about whom I have not been able to conclude clear or probable innocence:

Suspicious:
Garin
Eomer
Nilpaurion Felagund

1. Whom have the known innocents suspected besides each other?

Lhunardawen: Garin, Tar-ancalime (2)
Anguirel: Boromir (2)
Holbytlas: Tar-ancalime (1)

This was not as helpful as I had hoped.

2. Who has defended whom? ....are there any patterns?

Celuien gives a reasoned defense of Aiwendil against Farael. The defenses are all reasoned. Not much help here.

3. Who has accused whom? .... are there any patterns?

Yes. The primary pattern is that the werewolves have been able to avoid the spotlight because of all the accusations flying. The werewolves, I believe, have not accused anybody. Except for in one case: Spawn's post # 190, in which she sifts through Eomer's words, revealing a lot of dicey stuff. See point 9 below.

4. Who has voted for whom? .... any patterns?

-Eomer's Day 1 vote for Lhuna came 2nd after the trusted SPM's; safe - meanwhile his reasoning is, shall we say, dubious. Eomer's Day 2 vote for Lhuna also came 2nd, after Glirdan's.
-Garin's vote for Boromir was 3rd out of 4; as suspicious as possible, if anything can actually be told from such votes; by itself, it means little. Taken with other evidence, it helps to reveal Garin's possible furriness.
-Nilp voted for Farael on Day 1. It is likely that one of the werewolves did cast the first and only vote for someone. On Day 2 Nilp voted for the innocent and now killed Anguirel. Having voted during the Day for the man you decide to kill that Night is perhaps a potentially costly mistake.

5. Who has suspected someone then backed off? Why?

SPM is declaring in no uncertain terms that I'm a werewolf. If he fails to vote for me, he should be suspected.

6. Who has built up a case against someone then switched to vote for another?

Mormegil built up a case against me on Day 2 then voted for the known innocent Lhuna. However, he has otherwise shown himself to be a helpful villager, contributing in his usual in depth fashion.

7. Who has tried to appear helpful without being?

Eomer. See point 9.

8. Who is riding others' waves?

No one enough, not even my three suspects, except perhaps in voting.

9. Who is playing both sides against the middle?

-Garin, as I have described earlier.
-Eomer: "I guess anything can be construed as wolvish." "Formy but probably not Formy." "Morm but probably not Morm; please explain, sir." See Spawn's post #190.

10. Who's choices for innocent and suspicious seem dubious?

-SPM's and Celuien's suspicion of Tar's vote of Eomer seems a bit dubious.
-Eomer's suspicions of Spawn, Tar, and Morm seem dubious ... to me; for those individuals seem reasonable, helpful, and innocent.
-Glirdan's post #
130 looks rather suspicious, especially in retrospect. Lhuna is "Definitely at the top of my list." .... to lynch? That is my only suspicion against Glirdan.

11. Who asks questions the answers of which help the werewolves?

Aiwendil in post # 7, question #1; answers to this question aid the werewolves in knowing what not to do. On the other hand, his other 2 points are good ones.

12. Who defends self too much?

-Celuien's "joking" defense against Morm's random accusations, placing the eye of suspicion on tar & Ang (who is innocent)
-Me.
-Eomer's defense (in post # 205) against Spawn's accusation (#190) seems rather shrill.

General observations.

1. Nilp is not suicidal; that in itself is suspicious!

2. Eomer's assertion that werewolves are going to be timid is mildly suspicious, and effectively countered by the innocent Anguirel.

3. SPM: "Nilpaurion Felagund: Most likely innocent, in my view. He knows why." What is this supposed to mean?

4. SPM's litmus test against "seer talk" is looking more and more arbitrary the further we get into this holocaust. (EDIT: sorry, just noticed this is duplicated by point # 8)

5. When people are accused/suspected by more than one fellow villager, the likelihood of "getting defensive" seems to increase exponentially with each additional suspector. This is human nature. We should be more suspicious of someone who is too smooth.

6. Aiwendil's suspicions of tar-ancalime call into question my general sense that she's trying to do her part as an innocent. I still think he's reading too much into her posts, because she has contributed solid discussion.

7. Boromir's post #113 is solid, very solid. We all would do well to 'textbook' it for the rest of this holocaust....except for his suspicions of me, of course.

8. It's looking clearer and clearer to me that the "seer" discussion as a litmus test is a red herring and should be treated as such, especially since I find those in Boro's post #116 list as the top suspects in that regard, not to be very suspicious at all.

9. Nilp's post # 123 analysis of Day 1 vote looks reasonable on the surface, but seems flimsy upon retrospect.

10. I have never found the voting record by itself to be a persuasive tool for judging guilt or innocence, at least not until very late in the game, because there are simply too many possible variables and reasons for a person to vote for someone else, especially those "most incriminating" votes. Frankly, it seems that SPM's public service to the rest of us is more a mind-game he does for the fun of it than being useful; how many times as he been accurate in his resulting suspicions based on those voting record deductions?

11. Why does Glirdan answer Aiwendil's questions on how to catch a werewolf so late? I think it was Spawn who suggested (rightly) that such a question (#1) is more help to the werewolves than the innocents.

In Conclusion: I believe that the three who fall under my suspicious category are very likely our three werewolves. This has been by process of elimination, after reading all the way through to post #138, by which time I had arrived at my working hypothesis as to who was either clearly or probably innocent. That left three individuals unaccounted for. I was already rather familiar with Garin's posts, and Nilp's, but not Eomer's; so I went back and read his, and discovered a lot of the same points Spawn made.

[Garin]

Garin's vote for Boromir was 3rd out of 4; as suspicious as possible, if anything can actually be told from such votes; by itself, it means little. Taken with other evidence, it helps to reveal Garin's possible furriness.

What is with the "people" who find a vote for Boromir suspicious when he fails to be a proven innocent?

I respect that Boromir has taken me off his suspicious list but that will definitely suit him when I am lynched and proven ordinary.

I really want to give LpM benefit of the doubt but turning on someone who is definitely not going to vote for him today is rather transparent,

Nice try Wolfie.

I don't want to cast around anymore pronouncements without the proper documentation, I just know that one or two of my detractors is a wolf. I also know one or two of those ignoring me is a wolf--they don't want to get entwined if their wolf friends can rally the village against me.

I suggest the village lynch littlemanpoet who seemed anti-Boromir until the bluff failed.

I might be awake a liitle bit more, we'll see.

[tar-ancalime]

from lmp:

After having read through many, many posts, I've arrived at the following conclusions. The following individuals are clearly innocent based on their thoroughgoing contributions:

Innocent:
SPM
Boromir
Tar-ancalime
Spawn
Aiwendil

from Boromir:

Sauce, if you find lmp pulling a wolfish blind over our eyes I will put my trust in you. But, being able to know where lmp is coming from I'm inclined to believe he is telling the truth.

Am I the only one who finds this sudden Boromir/lmp love fest a little disconcerting?

[Garin]

Tar sez:
Am I the only one who finds this sudden Boromir/lmp love fest a little disconcerting?

Agreed Tar, especially since they seemed to be at each other's furry throats earlier on....

EDIT: spelling

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Garin

Littlemanpoet's quick post after the poor Anguirel's death seems almost too egregious.

Could a wolf be so bold as to appear so apologetic and hence so guilty? He offers no explanation, just remorse. Yes, this could be a clumsy lupine ploy.

Which brings us to the feud between LmP and Boromir... I am not convinced that they are at odds with each other. This again could be some wolfish tactic.

I was never was convinced at Lhuna's guilt, I mentioned voting for her on the first day to simply even up the votes but was seriously cross-posted. Nonetheless, I have voted for no proven innocents and so I will post my personal list of fools...

Celuin
Tar-ancalime
Aiwendil

One of you is a wolf. I can nearly envision those night-time PMs. "Let's not kill Garin because he will manage to get himself lynched."

I think that, despite the early success of taking away our blessed True Seer, this will be a very quick game and the werewolves will soon be defeated.

I think I have it figured out, though this will most likely be written off as another 'crazy mormegil plan' that is naught but rubbish. Anyway, notice in this post how Garin begins to attack LMP but backs off and twists it to continue his assault on Boromir, who as many others feel seems more or less innocent. Later on we see Garin bring up more talk of LMP that falls short.

Originally Posted by LMP

I really want to give LpM benefit of the doubt but turning on someone who is definitely not going to vote for him today is rather transparent,

Nice try Wolfie.

I don't want to cast around anymore pronouncements without the proper documentation, I just know that one or two of my detractors is a wolf. I also know one or two of those ignoring me is a wolf--they don't want to get entwined if their wolf friends can rally the village against me.

I suggest the village lynch littlemanpoet who seemed anti-Boromir until the bluff failed.

I think the wolves agreed last night that LMP was going to be dead today, so they better maneuver in a way that when he dies it won't implicate his comrades. Let me quote LMP. The whole post is pertinent but I will only quote a part.

Originally Posted by LMP

In Conclusion: I believe that the three who fall under my suspicious category are very likely our three werewolves. This has been by process of elimination, after reading all the way through to post #138, by which time I had arrived at my working hypothesis as to who was either clearly or probably innocent. That left three individuals unaccounted for. I was already rather familiar with Garin's posts, and Nilp's, but not Eomer's; so I went back and read his, and discovered a lot of the same points Spawn made.

I really think that Eomer, Garin, and LMP are the most suspicious today and LMP being the most likely to die. When we discover, as I believe we will, that he is indeed a wolf we will look back on his post and discover that his most recent posts contain his indication that Eomer and Garin are wolves, we will assume that no wolf would be so foolish and therefore right them off as innocents. I say this is madness to do this! I think we have our trio here and I suggest a full lynching without pause of LMP. I want to do it quickly before my compassion kicks in and I begin believing, again, his 'poor me' story. I said again because I have 'flip-flopped' on his guilt and innocence today and yesterday. I'm thinking that the plan would be to have Eomer come out and at least implicate on of the two fellow wolves today so the triangle would be complete. Now that I have said this it will be interesting to see what he says.

Now having said that I would like to address the ridiculous question of 'why is SpM still here'. Realize old friend that what I say I do so with the highest respect to you. But what makes SpM so great? Why should the wolves kill him so soon? He's intelligent, yes but is he infallible? No of course not. He is often wrong, as am I. He's a mover and shaker, if you'll forgive the expression, but I weary of the tedious question of why he and some others make it past night 1. Could he be a wolf, yes of course but just because he has survived doesn't make him one. There are many that are equally intelligent but aren't questioned as to why they are still alive. I believe, that wolves might leave him around knowing that this insane question will inevitably be asked. Now if we have no actual evidence against SpM let's drop it.

Disclaimer I am not defending SpM, per se, what I am doing is trying to dispel the tired notion that any longevity in SpM equals Lupinity (is that a word?) But honestly I've seen nothing out of the ordinary from him at all.

Originally Posted by LMP

3. SPM: "Nilpaurion Felagund: Most likely innocent, in my view. He knows why." What is this supposed to mean?

This one goes back a ways and I know what is being said and question Nilp's integrity on his proclamations as Nilp may have noted.

Now of course I could be wrong but I think I've nailed at least two wolves in this scheme and will not back down today.

Originally Posted by Tar-a

I also don't want to overlook mormegil. He's been flying under the radar for the entire game. I have nothing more concrete than that, but he's making me nervous.

HA! Even when I try or am forced to be quiet I never fly under the radar. My posts tend to be very accusatory and straight forward, never beating around the bush for me.

++LMP

While I suspect him to be a wolf I think that if he is innocent, which is improbable, his death will tell us much more. Remember that if there is a tie it better be LMP who reaches the vote count first.

[tar-ancalime]

from mormegil:

Quote:

This one goes back a ways and I know what is being said and question Nilp's integrity on his proclamations as Nilp may have noted.

So, is this a reference to past lives? I noticed it when SPM first posted it but decided to keep quiet because I was afraid it might be one of those ill-advised early Gifted hints--indicating a Hunter/Ranger duo. But since others have noticed it, I'll pipe up and say that that's what it sounded like to me. Either a too-risky hint or a wolf throwing out hint-flavored bait.

Care to comment, either SPM or Nilpaurion?

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

I'm in a haste, so I'll say only a few things now.

1) No summary today. You talk so much that I have hard time keeping up anyway, and I can't be around toDay as much as I had hoped. Yes, pretty convenient, you think, for me to disappear just when people are getting suspicious of me, but my weekends just are like that.

2) Nilp is innocent.

3) The way Eomer responded to my accusations (or is it suspicions?) looked even more wolvish to me, and I shall come back to analyse that as soon as I can.

4) I think it's generally a good idea to look at those toDay, who have avoided the spotlight thus far.

[Glirdan]

Oh dear!! Ang is dead! Everyone who enjoys my music is being killed off one by one.

I must answer one short thing that Lmp has asked abaout me already:

11. Why does Glirdan answer Aiwendil's questions on how to catch a werewolf so late? I think it was Spawn who suggested (rightly) that such a question (#1) is more help to the werewolves than the innocents

I would have answered them on Day 1 but I had very little time. You'd know this if you checked the village's bulletine board.

All I have to say is that I am greatly confused at the moment. I shall be back later after a more thorough analysis of the posts toDay.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Eomer is still looking wolvish to me, and because my time is rather limited toDay, I must just complete my case against him instead of taking a wider look at the village which is a pity. Well, anyway:

#193 - Eomer's first reactions to my case. He's appearing friendly...

"Thanks for the analysis, spawn, because it makes me look pretty good! "

... and seems to be trying to disregard the points I made of him.

"I don't think I've been the least helpful person here, as has been reinforced by a couple of other villagers (whom I thank)."

If some other villagers think that Eomer is helpful, it means that I can't suspect him of being a werewolf? Then he asks me to check out the differences between suspecting and accusing.

"Anyway, a good post nonetheless; and I certainly won't ask people to stop asking questions of me. It's about time someone queried me. " ~Eomer

Well, looks more like a fake smile to me, because this is what happens when I go on and say that I might vote for him:

#200 - "To put it bluntly: I have suspected people, so to suspect me on the basis of not suspecting is totally contrived and false."

Eomer is taking attention away from the essence of my theory by clinging to his belief that I've confused the words 'suspect' and 'accuse'. Just because of that, he tries to say that my whole theory is totally contrived and false.

#205 - "I'm very confident I could insert the names of many other villagers in place of Eomer in her analysis and end up with a similar result."

Actually, I can't think of any and that's why I wanted to analyse him in the first place. Can you, Eomer, give me an example?

"I hope to quiz you on that tomorrow, Spawn, because I think there's a bit of selectivity in your choice of target today."

What's this, then? Something that begins with the word 'knee' and ends with the word 'jerk'? I thought I was welcome to question you... my mistake.

"Has anyone investigated you yet?"

Not much, really. I remember you saying earlier that maybe tar-a and I might be worth keeping an eye on, but you left it at that.


I'm also concerned of tar-ancalime. As Nilp said, her vote for Eomer might have been a wolf voting for another. She is excellent at wiggling herself out of tricky situations (like the flip-flop accusation) and that's why I'm still worried. I also disagree with Sauce on the significance of Holby's vote in this matter. If tar-a is a wolf, maybe she got scared that Holby was the Seer and had dreamed of her and the wolves wanted to take her out before she could dream more. Nightly kills aren't always frame-ups. However, I don't have time for analysing her toDay, so that's it about her.

I'll be back at least to vote (most likely for Eomer), but I try to come to talk with you before that if I only can.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I'm surprised. I really am. I will do my best to respond to the suspicion placed on me today. I will say that it's funny how only one person really suspected me in the first two days and then — overnight — many villagers are mentioning my name.

About Lhuna: I was wrong. I thought there was a good chance that she was a wolf, and I was wrong. The whole Oh Glirdan! You're probably innocent but what can I do? act appeared very wolvish to me. I was just as wrong as several villagers; it just so happens that my target's identity was revealed before theirs.


SPM follows Spawn's lead and makes a case against me (I wonder if this was arranged last night). He mentions that my suggestion that wolves will be slightly 'timid' and 'extremely friendly' was worrying, as it's problematic to assume wolf-categories. I agree with this, but neither Spawn nor SPM point out that I said Please debate with me in that post. Day One — let's get talking, please! It was hardly the cleverest post but I don't think it's worth all this bother.

Re. Addressing the question of unity between Tar and Spawn to SPM: SPM had previously said that Tar's random vote for me was odd, especially considering her suspicion of Spawn. I addressed it to SPM because I thought he'd be the villager most likely to care and respond (which he did, eventually).

About my supposed 'mild suspicions' of Formendacil and Mormegil: I was (and I know I'll be jeered for saying this) trying to be helpful. Yes, that's right. I was trying to be a help to the village. You see, while a lot of people are going crazy and throwing around rash accusations hither and thither around LMP, Boromir88, Garin, etc. I've been staying out of that mess and looking at the slightly less obvious villagers.

I do see how that can be seen as wolvish, think that if you will; but I will absolutely not apologise for not screaming accusations. I raise suspicion without 'pressing it home'? I'm sorry but I do not understand what's being asked of me here. My main target for the first two days was Lhuna. I was content with my target then, and happy enough to question others.

Today, though, I do have a new target. Oh yes, I wonder if you can guess who it is...

Farael was a safe target? Blimey. You suggest a new way of looking at things and you get people jumping at your throat. I guess that's Werewolf for you.


The most wolvish thing about me was indeed my shrill defence at Spawn's accusation. That's just the way I am, though. I can't help but come across as a bit of a *insert obscenity here* when playing this game.

One more point, and this is something I resent highly. This continued allegation that I am being unhelpful. What exactly can I say to that? Have I caught a wolf? No. So, in that way, I guess you could say that I haven't offered great help to this poor village. So, at the risk of sounding sarcastic, I urge all villagers to flock to the exceedingly helpful dancing spawn of ungoliant and trust to her judgment; considering how very helpful she has been to you all.


Again, I can't help but come across as annoying, pedantic and exasperated when I defend myself. But this wave of suspicion has me somewhat perplexed.

More soon.

[The Saucepan Man]

I haven't got a lot of time, so just a quick response to some points that have been raised for now.

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

I'm not saying that SPM is a chief suspect at the moment, but I do think that he's been granted "innocent" status - if only de facto - far too easily.

I do not expect "innocent" status, as you call it, and as far as I am aware I haven't been granted it. I expect my contributions to be examined and analysed, just as all villagers' contributions should be. But I think that it is rather unfair of you to make me accountable for how others react to me. Indeed, your whole case against me (if it can be called that) relies on what others have done - the Wolves have not killed me and I seem to be low in some people's suspicions.

Originally Posted by Garin

What I was trying to say say is that at one point you have to be wolf instead of the perrenial ordo. Statistically it must happen sometime soon.

Yes, and statistically you are unlikely to be a Wolf. But statistics can be wrong. Please, judge me on my actions in this village, not my past lives.

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

SPM is declaring in no uncertain terms that I'm a werewolf. If he fails to vote for me, he should be suspected.

I find that rather curious, and indeed this applies to much of this "flip-flopping" debate. There seems to be a general feeling in this village that changing one's mind as time goes on and more material comes to light is suspicious behaviour. I think it will be more instructive to look at why people have changed their mind, not just the simple fact of it. As it happens, I have not changed my mind about you and will still probably be voting for you.

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

SPM's litmus test against "seer talk" is looking more and more arbitrary the further we get into this holocaust.

Not arbitrary, but less decisive. All that Seer talk, and the encouragement of it, was one of the few things that we had to go on on Day 1, and it was a factor in my mind on Day 2 too. But, as time wears on, more factors are coming to light which makes it less important as an indicator of possible guilt. It remains one of my reasons for suspecting you, though.

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

SPM: "Nilpaurion Felagund: Most likely innocent, in my view. He knows why." What is this supposed to mean?

Originally Posted by tar-ancalime

Care to comment, either SPM or Nilpaurion?

Well, it looks like I have to now. In a previous life, Nilp and I exchanged coded messages confirming our status as oridnary innocents. We did so on Day 1 in this village by anagrams, as indeed did Lhuna (royal invader girl = ordinary villager). That's one of the reasons that I believe Nilp to be innocent, because I trust him on this. Others have followed suit subsequently, but I am less trusting of their jumping on the bandwaggon in this regard (and indeed it was one of the reasons that I had a bad feeling about Lhuna). Does that help clarify?

Back later with my thoughts on everyone.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

All you have, Spawn, is the 'feel' of my posts, and I can hardly argue against that. However:

Trying to disregard your points? No: I have answered them all (I think).

'If other villagers think Eomer is helpful it means I can't suspect him?' Um, what? What are you talking about? Classic example of taking anything I say and twisting it to make me look bad. Other villagers have said that I've made a couple of good points: that's fact. Why are you trying to make this look as if I'm shoving you away? I welcomed your questioning.

Fake smile? Whatever. I'm one of the more excessive smiley users on the Barrowdowns.

Difference between suspicion and accusation, does this block the essence of your theory? The 'essence of your theory' Spawn, is that I haven't really suspected anyone. I answer this by saying that I have only accused one person (Lhuna) but have suspected others. This is the entire crux of the matter. Your theory rests on that point because it is the major point — the essence of the theory, if you will. That is why it is contrived and false. Yes it has a couple of attractive whistles and bells, but the theory itself is contrived.

About saying that there was 'selectivity in your choice of target', that was a clumsy way of saying that you could have made such accusations about a number of villagers. Which I hold to, and I will post evidence later today.

Spawn, how's this for knee-jerk? I think I'll be voting for you today. Hopefully we can at least dispell this theory that you and I are working together. Why will I vote for you? Think of the word 'hypocrisy', and also consider what effect your rather weak case against me has had today.

Oh my Lord, he's so shrill.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Well, it looks like I have to now. In a previous life, Nilp and I exchanged coded messages confirming our status as oridnary innocents. We did so on Day 1 in this village by anagrams, as indeed did Lhuna (royal invader girl = ordinary villager). That's one of the reasons that I believe Nilp to be innocent, because I trust him on this. Others have followed suit subsequently, but I am less trusting of their jumping on the bandwaggon in this regard (and indeed it was one of the reasons that I had a bad feeling about Lhuna). Does that help clarify?

Yes. I'm angered. This offends the spirit of the game. Such interior messaging should not be allowed.

This game is cooked. I want out. Please vote for me.

++littlemanpoet

[Boromir88]

I find that rather curious, and indeed this applies to much of this "flip-flopping" debate. There seems to be a general feeling in this village that changing one's mind as time goes on and more material comes to light is suspicious behaviour. I think it will be more instructive to look at why people have changed their mind, not just the simple fact of it. As it happens, I have not changed my mind about you and will still probably be voting for you.

I regret using the term . I think everybody is seeing somebody "backing down" from their suspicions and terming it flip-flop. (Which I have to see who's doing it and think that such loose use of the word is rather wolfish).

Backing away from suspicions from someone isn't a flip-flop here, you're bound to go back and forth through Werewolf. It's the reversals of going a long with public opinion that I think is flip-flopping and most suspicious. Not because you are able to understand the reasoning of your "suspected/accused" person(s) and therefor don't see them as suspicious as you at first did. Being tunnel-visioned (:ahem: Garin ) and going after a soul person until he is lynched is something that I've never embraced....But I guess we all bring our own ways of doing things, which makes it of course interesting.

Garin, I will say, with your suspiciouns, you are way off track and it will only hurt the village if you are indeed an innocent villager because if I'm lynched (not saying I particularly feel I will) you will probably be lynched the day after.

[Boromir88]

Your understanding does you credit. But I have a feeling that you are having a Woolly Wolfskin pulled over your eyes.

Which I will take into full consideration when having to vote today. It's possible that lmp believes there will be enough sympathetic type (:cough: me :cough: ) that will see his mood today as he's likely innocent and so he plays to it. Hoping of course there are enough of me's and not more cynics like Sauce , to spare him from the noose.

Edit:

I've come to the conclusion that either Spawn or Eomer are probably another wolf in crime. The wolves yesterday would have to know that lmp would be facing death today. I doubt Eomer and Spawn are both wolves, playing this team of just accusing eachother back and forth, but there may be one wolf in there playing a long to get attention away from lmp. (IF lmp turns out to be a wolf I will certainly be taking this into deeper consideration).

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Yes, that's right: thy noble ancestor, forever beloved by the house of Eomer, would be ashamed of you.


#41- Big long list of what's happened so far. Mildly suspects Celuien. *Spawn suspected Eomer on basis of his mild suspicion*

#57- Midly suspects Lhuna. *Spawn suspected Eomer on basis of his mild suspicion*

#85- Thinks there are good points against Aiwendil and tar-ancalime....but they don't look very suspicious. *Spawn suspected Eomer on basis of his mild suspicion and then taking it back*

#94 (and #41)- She puts on the helpful villager cloak, expresses her disdain for all the Seer talk, and urges her fellows to find the wolves. *Spawn suspected Eomer for appearing helpful*

-She votes for Lhuna. (Funnily enough, like Eomer.)

#177- Mildly suspects Glirdan. *Spawn suspected Eomer on basis of his mild suspicion.

#179- Laments the wasted Seer talk. Let's find wolves= be helpful! *Spawn suspected Eomer for appearing helpful*

-Begins suspicion of Eomer.



That's pretty much what her game was up until she began to suspect me. It is quite funny how similarly we were playing, Spawn. Now, and here's the important bit, there's nothing suspicious in what Spawn did there! Her very strong attack on me for doing something very similar to what she was doing is positively laced with hypocrisy.




Now, from the One yesterday, we have: Saucepan Man and littlemanpoet channeling her thoughts, and Mormegil. Actually, Mormegil I am less worried about because I merely seem to fit into his scheme. However, it is the other two I am concerned about.

I believe that littlemanpoet is a wolf, regardless. I have been following all discussion though I haven't commented on all of it. Actually, I might have to vote for him today anyway to save my own neck. Lucky Spawn. Without a vote for you today I'm not sure many other villagers will give my arguments against you time. But there are a few days left in this village yet.

There's a distinct possibility that Spawn is not a wolf; but her hypocrisy and SPM's repetition of her points has me worried.

[littlemanpoet]

I'm a werewolf. Lynch me.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Ok, I might not be back later.

LMP supposedly wants to die, and the village does not want him around. I had thought he was a likely wolf especially after that first post today but his last post with his vote for himself has me doubting somewhat. This would turn out to be the greatest bluff in Werewolf history if he's let off. He won't be though.

In any case, I fear receiving a few votes today and I certainly don't want to die.

++LITTLEMANPOET

Even if he is a wolf it appears that I'll be suspected for that vote.

Spawn, you still have a chance to avoid my vote tomorrow but you are going to have to meet that charge of hypocrisy, which I think is very pertinent.

[Glirdan]

Grrrr!!! I'm such a confused villager!!! I really don't know what to think of that vote. It seems awfully Nilpish, yet I don't think Lmp would do something that drastic. It's just not his style. Mind you, it could very well be that he's a Wolf and by him telling us he's a Wolf, he thought that he could pull it off and make us not vote for him or he's a Wolf and very suicidal. I don't know what to do....

[Kath]

Quite honestly I think lmp voted for himself because, whether he is a wolf or an innocent, he is thoroughly disgusted with the way SPM and Nilp, and to some extent Lhuna, behaved at the beginning of the game, and I'm not sure that I disagree.

Basically that is cheating.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Grrrr!!! I'm such a confused villager!!! ... I don't know what to do....

Just please vote for me and let me out of this cooked , rigged, cheaty game.

And thank you, Eomer.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

Yes. I'm angered. This offends the spirit of the game. Such interior messaging should not be allowed.

This game is cooked. I want out. Please vote for me.

It's not interior messaging, so to speak, it's out in the open for everybody to read. However I'm inclined to agree and disagree simultaneously. I'm not a fan of cryptic messages but at the same time we do like occasional hints from our seer or cobbler, if you are a wolf. You'll notice my anagram simply asks Nilp why should I trust him? That's the problem, anybody can say they are innocent, either in anagrams, cryptic clues or out right declaring themselves...will I believe them I don't know, you've declared yourself innocent before LMP did I believe it...no I didn't. I read Lhuna's anagram and didn't believe her, obviously.

As for me I wouldn't recommend doing it but...Meh.

[Boromir88]

Quite honestly I think lmp voted for himself because, whether he is a wolf or an innocent, he is thoroughly disgusted with the way SPM and Nilp, and to some extent Lhuna, behaved at the beginning of the game, and I'm not sure that I disagree.

Basically that is cheating.

I'm not a hard enough "looker" to find such clues and never noticed such a thing. I think that's cause for lmp's frustration (among other things) and I can certainly agree with him. But now is not the time to discuss such things as what is wrong/right. Let's keep focused and I think any feelings about the cryptic clues should be posted in the Town Hall Bulletin board (aka Main Tol-in-Gaurhoth thread).

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by mormegil

It's not interior messaging, so to speak, it's out in the open for everybody to read. However I'm inclined to agree and disagree simultaneously. I'm not a fan of cryptic messages but at the same time we do like occasional hints from our seer or cobbler, if you are a wolf. You'll notice my anagram simply asks Nilp why should I trust him? That's the problem, anybody can say they are innocent, either in anagrams, cryptic clues or out right declaring themselves...will I believe them I don't know, you've declared yourself innocent before LMP did I believe it...no I didn't. I read Lhuna's anagram and didn't believe her, obviously.

As for me I wouldn't recommend doing it but...Meh.

I understand you. But it creates an unlevel playing field. Those who play in so many games, or at least those who read every game have an unfair advantage over the rest of us. I have other things I do besides play werewolf.

And it also happens to generate extracurricular discussions like this, which I could be doing after the game on the main thread. But I'm angry enough at this that I'm posting here anyway. And thanks for voting for me, Morm. If I had been privy to Nilp's, Lhuna's, and SPM's (and your) secret veteran code, I'd have played the game differently. There. That's the real issue. Not a level playing field.

Lynch me.

[Glirdan]

Well, now that I reread your previous post Lmp (I think it was post #268), I'm inclined to agree. However, this does not mean that you should quit, no matter how crooked this is. However, it was right out in the open for all of us to see so it's not really cheating. But now I'm not sure what to do...

However, if you want out, I'll help you.

++Littlemanpoet