WWJ IV: Let the insanity ensue

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

There were two others in that group. Don't spend all your time attacking one person and not look at the others, we can't afford that.

I also think it's a tad unfair to attack me when you know I won't be on for sometime to defend myself, really. I extend to time constraints courtesy to my fellow players, and I expect the same from them.

Well. We can lynch only one wolf at the time, and I do believe, your case is the most obvious. The others haven't made your mistakes. At least yet... So what we can't afford now, is wasting time on sidetracks. I'm still all ears for any better candidates... I just myself can't see a case built over anyone else as good as on you. You too are free to suggest one.

As I said earlier: we need grounded suspicions now, not whitewashing, for we have to decide tonight. You could try to build one on me, for instance, and see how believable you can make it. Many good claims to be compared is better than total confusion of nine either/or -cases...

I do think, that one should give the chance to fellow players according to time limits, but one has his own timelimits too. And I have acted in good faith, believing, that there will be people discussing here while I myself am at sleep: and at the worst scenario, voting before I can make my point.

I must admit, that I'm very disapointed about the way things have turned out. No-one has been here exept for you, Firefoot and Valier. This really looks grim.

[Roa_Aoife]

Well, if you've made it up in your mind that I'm a wolf, you might as well look for the other two. I can't exactly runaway you know. As for me, I'm going to be looking for three wolves, though I'm beginning to belive that I'm conversing with one.

To attack so viciously an easy target.... that doesn't look good for you Nogrod.

And easy for you to say make a case- you have all my posts for today to go on. Now I could go on your posts, but that would be retailiation, and I could go on Firefoot's post's but he's done nothing suspicious. I notice you haven't looked at my posts from the previous days. Why not?

I daresay a case against you could be made, but you've tied my hands, for to retaliate is death. But to not retaliate is death. Bravo, Nogrod.

[Firefoot]

Okay, this is a style of analysis that I have found helpful in the past - by briefly summarizing and commenting on each post, nothing is taken out of context and patterns become more evident. The problem is that it is only really helpful if there is real substance and amount to people's posts; it didn't reveal much about Eonwe or Elu, but Valier's turned up some interesting things.

Eonwe:

Post 13
Nothing very helpful, nothing particularly wolvish. He scorns Day 1 strategies.

Post 27
Repetition that Day 1 sucks. Once more, nothing here.

Post 49
Votes Jenny on what he calls gut instinct, but at least not randomly. He says she feels like a new wolf to him.

Post 57
He clarifies his vote for Jenny, says that she changes her opinion around too much to fit others’ ideas and suspicions. A repetition that Day 1 won’t be very useful. Okay, I can’t really blame him here since these are similar feelings to what I was feeling about Jenny.

Post 60
One line post, nothing there again.

Post 78
Explains that he had a feeling Lommy would die during the night. Hm…

Post 88
Agrees that Lommy made a lot of sense for the wolves to go after. Says that his suspicions were turning toward Roa and Jenny as they had voted for Wilwa.

Post 96
Continues his reasoning for his suspicions of Jenny, says he intends to vote for her. Says that Folwren, Mith, and myself all look pretty good to him.

Post 99
Explains to Jenny that his suspicion of her is not based on her silence.

Objectively looking at these posts… there really doesn’t seem to be that much there. Nothing to support my suspicions of him anyway. The real founder of my suspicions of him and Nogrod was a possibility of some kind of wolvish alliance, and I haven’t entirely given that up – especially since Nogrod seemed so suspicious of him on into Day 2, but all of a sudden that seems to have gone out the window without any indication of an in-between stage. But other than that, there really isn’t very much there, and what is there seems supportive of his innocence. For the time being, Eonwe is on my emerging in-between list.

Elu:

Post 9
Jokes about were-birds.

[Has computer troubles, does not post again till Day 2]

Post 81
Starts to comment about how he thought Lommy was behaving oddly, then descends into more speculation about were-birds.

Post 84
Says he appreciated my analysis, but that we had to be careful in discriminating fact from bias.

Post 86
Regrets Valier’s inconsistency and frothiness.

Post 90
Although he says that he wouldn’t outright accuse Jenny, he votes for her, mostly for her silence that day, despite her warning. This is irritating but not exactly suspicious.

Once again, there really isn’t anything here. Nothing to prove his innocence or guilt. He’s just sort of all over the place, and Roa’s description in Post 144 is sticking with me.

Valier:

Post 4
“I can’t believe Kitanna is dead!!” pretty well sums up this post.

Post 8
Says we should focus on catching wolves and that people should speak up (but with lots more exclamation points).

Post 34
Says that people who post lengthy analyses tend to get lynched faster and that’s why she doesn’t. This would be extremely harmful to us, and definitely raises warning bells in my head, or it would if it wasn’t accompanied by so many exclamation points and big grin smilies.

Post 39
Says that other people are better communicators than she is, advises against bandwagoning.

Post 41
Votes randomly for Elu because “his music stinks.”

Post 87
See post 4… plus a comment that it’s time to get down to business.

Post 100-101
Analysis: Jenny – probably innocent, maybe cunning wolf; Eonwe – probably innocent, she agrees with most of his posts; Sleepy – she wants to see more of him; Roa – no real opinion, apologizes for frothiness; Nogrod – no real verdict; Elu – she says his posts are weird; Gandalf – she wonders if we shouldn’t just lynch him to be on the safe side in case he’s trying to slip under the radar; Folwren – Valier was rather insulted by her wondering if it was her first time playing, she seems to be getting frustrated at others’ frustrations for her frothiness – I quote: “IT WAS THE FIRST DAY!!!”; Mithalwen – again, no real verdict, says she has nothing to hide. This post sort of has me wondering. It seems innocent enough but what catches my eye is that she only makes a judgment about the people who are not suspicious of her. Also, perhaps by oversight, her list is not complete – I for one am not on it.

Post 103
Complains about how little of substance there is, says she will be voting soon.

Post 106
Says the key players are Mithalwen, Folwren, Roa, and myself. Votes Mithalwen for no apparent reason except that she thinks she is a clever wolf. This seems strange to me, that you would identify key players and then vote for one of them. The loudest people aren’t necessarily the wolves.

Post 116 & 119
Begs us not to kill her. Promises to do a dance if we don’t. This, I think, is a little over the top…

Post 122
“Ok kill me then you will see! I may be a bit "Frothy" but I have no hidden fur!” Maybe, maybe not.

Post 138
Thinks Gandalf should be penalized for not voting two nights in a row. Now she claims that the key players are most often loud innocents – so why the heck did she vote for Mithalwen?? She thinks it’s odd that Mithalwen hasn’t defended herself, even though she has made no real accusations against her except voting randomly. She says it’s important not to make a mistake so we should vote for someone who has posted a fair bit – didn’t she just say that the loud ones were often innocent? Now this is what I would call contradicting. Essentially she seems to be proposing that we lynch the louder ones because they are loud. It reminds me nothing so much as the little story here: http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpos...62&postcount=1 Sorry if that’s slightly irrelevant.

Post 149
Thinks Jenny, Nogrod, me, Elu, and Gandalf are innocent while Eonwe, Mithalwen, and Roa are not. Is very vague about why. In fact, I would really like to know why she finds Mithalwen so suspicious – I have yet to see a reason other than that Mithalwen was the first to call her frothy.

After doing this, I have become quite suspicious of Valier. I can’t really tell if she’s a sloppy wolf or just frothy and rather… inept? It seems entirely possible to me that if she’s a wolf she wants to attack the loudmouths because the other two wolves are both quiet ones.

I'm not even going to bother doing this for Gandalf - he only has about three insubstantial posts. It may be useful to do with Jenny though.

Oh, and Roa, I'm a she. Also, I'm agreeing very much with what you're saying... Nogrod seems pretty determined right now to paint you as a wolf.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Well, if you've made it up in your mind that I'm a wolf, you might as well look for the other two. I can't exactly runaway you know. As for me, I'm going to be looking for three wolves, though I'm beginning to belive that I'm conversing with one.

To attack so viciously an easy target.... that doesn't look good for you Nogrod.

I'm looking at them all the time - and do have some suspicions. But not good enough to go on expressing them publicly as yet. We need one today, as I said. One. The turn for the others is tomorrow.

Although I guess I have to be a bit more vocal about my other suspicions later on, as we see how this day settles. For I really do think I'm writing my own death-sentence all the time. I'll be awake the next night, but propably won't be a match to a werewolf.

Well. Someone furiously defending his family, quite all alone, against silver-tongued werewolves doesn't exactly look good. He isn't supposed to. He would lose without the attack - and the village would do so too.

As you yourself readily to admit being an easy target, you at the same time reveal your fear of the case being there.

Remember: all I want, is a better theory. You, or anyone produce it, and I'll vote for it...

[Firefoot]

Nogrod - the trouble with finding a better theory is that in order to make a theory, there needs to be something to make a theory from! You, me, and Roa are the only people who have really posted extensively today. Mithalwen has been active, but there isn't anything very recent. Most of the rest of the people, there just isn't enough to make a theory out of. So unless I chose to pick on either Roa, you, or Mith, there isn't going to be any kind of really substantial theory. What I've picked out on Valier is going to be about as good as it gets, through no fault of mine or anyone else's except the people who don't post. If the villagers lose, it won't be the fault (not wholly) of those who are posting, but of those who are not. It's easy for me to rank the three of you in suspiciousness, but just because Roa might make the best case for a wolf doesn't make her one - the trouble is that a good case can't really be made for those people that I am more suspicious of.

/rant

Anyhow, I'm going to be leaving shortly - in less than a half hour - and probably won't be home for about three hours, unless we decide to go out for lunch like my family was talking about yesterday. So I'm not exactly sure when I'll be back - but I will be back in plenty of time to vote.

Just for clarification - Kitanna, the Day will run a full 24 hours, even though it started about an hour late, correct? Will that extra hour ever get made up somewhere (during a night, I would assume), or will the game just continue running an hour later than it started?

[Roa_Aoife]

As you yourself readily to admit being an easy target, you at the same time reveal your fear of the case being there.

What? I'm an easy target because my brain was fried before. But you have ignored all of my defenses since you started on my case, so I don't know why you would listen to that one. Why is that? Is it because you know that I am innocent and can't risk acknowledging my own evidence to the case?

You also seem sure that no one will bring a case against you. Why? Because to do that would look like a team-play to everyone else. You have covered your tracks well today.

Edit: Cross post with Firefoot. Sorry for the gender confusion! As I said, my brain is fried.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

After doing this, I have become quite suspicious of Valier. I can’t really tell if she’s a sloppy wolf or just frothy and rather… inept? It seems entirely possible to me that if she’s a wolf she wants to attack the loudmouths because the other two wolves are both quiet ones.

Well, I agree with you somewhat. She's on my shared third place of suspects. That third is a pair, and I'm really having trouble to wrench over which one. But as I appreciate your analysis, I can't see it more damning that the case of Roa. Indeed, if we look at the style of her writing, she seems more like a quite young and unsure person - what you call ineptness. Look at all those exclamation marks and smiles around... And what comes to her clumsiness, they seem to be differences between first ideas and later opinions. Not actual discrepancies done later in the game, which would count - as I'm counting them on Roa.

But thanks Firefoot. That is exactly what I would like to see more today!

EDIT: Cross-posting with both Firefoot & ROa

[Roa_Aoife]

Will you stop ignoring me!

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Will you stop ignoring me!

Was that meant for me? How am I ignoring you: I would think the situation would be on the contrary!

Remember: I cross-posted with your last one!

First we need accusations, then defences. If you think you have a good cover, then you should trust it. If not, don't show your jumpiness in front of the popular verdict...

Sorry about that last one. Just fighting alone makes one desperate!

BTW. I'm really looking forward for Valier to come up with some comments over Firefoot's analysis.

[Roa_Aoife]

then defences. If you think you have a good cover, then you should trust it.

Then why won't you acknowledge the defense I have given? You seem to be rather determined to ignore the proof of my innocense. I think I have more than answered your case, but you don't seem to think so, and I want to know why.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

But you have ignored all of my defenses since you started on my case, so I don't know why you would listen to that one. Why is that? Is it because you know that I am innocent and can't risk acknowledging my own evidence to the case?

You also seem sure that no one will bring a case against you. Why? Because to do that would look like a team-play to everyone else. You have covered your tracks well today.

To the first one: No. I'm getting more and more confident about your guilt, almost post after post. But it is not my task to prove your innocense, its yours. And then, it's the thing all the villagers have to consider with their one vote each. If I see other villagers' seeing the things under evil-interpretations, I'll surely try to correct it, then. Now I have other things to do: trying f.ex. get some RL things done (but I'll be checking every now and then)

But really about your jumpiness. It's not looking good. The guilt is shining out from your reactions. Sorry: even this is nothing definitive, just one more piece to the pile...

EDIT: seem to have been cross-posting all the time, but this I think answeres your later question too.

For the second one. I'm not at all sure, that no-one would bring a case against me. Quite on the contrary. I do doubt me being alive tomorrow morning, and just hope the innocent villagers don't go killing one innocent this evening, for the next night it definitively will be an innocent one to go.

What you call "covering the tracks" is just having a pure mind and clean tracks to begin with - and then using some brain not to play totally idiotic way to the hands of the wolves. But I am afraid, I do confess this. This looks very, very bad now. And not the least because of us three being the only ones at sight.

[Roa_Aoife]

*frustrated sigh* Now I understand how Shelob felt...

I am afraid I have to go, and I won't be back on till after this day is over. Having nothing else to go on:

++Valier

The information provided by Firefoot was very helpful and non-circumstantial. It seems to be the only case that isn't at the moment. I would vote Nogrod, but I don't like being retalitory, and no analysis of him has been presented. I would do it myself, but that goes back to being retalitory.

I wish the village luck, because if I die, you'll be down another innocent, which is exactly what the wolves want. We kill an innocent, and it will be 4-3 by morning. Remember: if there's an even number of wolves and villagers, they win.

[Nogrod]

Just to come forwards with you. I surely underdstand your jumpiness, because your hands are quite tied now. You know who the innocents are, but can't exactly bring forwards any real accusations, because if they would lead to a conclusion, and that innocent would die, there would be one more nail in your coffin...

So let's see, how far will your mates be ready to support you, and when they abandon your ship to save their own skins.

And please, don't accuse me of being unfair. I haven't been the one to make your mistakes...

PS. Still waiting for better theories, although I think this one getting to hold.

EDIT: Crossposted with Roa

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

I am afraid I have to go, and I won't be back on till after this day is over. Having nothing else to go on:

++Valier

OH, how stupid of me!

Now one innocent is having the first vote (that holds, if the wolves are not so cunning as to vote for one of their own kind to uplift the suspicion: I think wolves could do that to reach their goal, maybe?)! In the case of a draw, we'll be losing her!

I kind of thought of rushing a vote on Roa just to prevent this scenario taking place, but wanted to see first how the discussion goes on. I should have checked her early morning post where she told, when she would have to vote... You can blame my inalertness on this one.

We can't afford ill-opinioned votes any more!

Make your opinions count in this!

[Nogrod]

Having nothing else to go on:

++Valier

The information provided by Firefoot was very helpful and non-circumstantial. It seems to be the only case that isn't at the moment.

Note this with my earlier claim that:

I surely understand your jumpiness, because your hands are quite tied now. You know who the innocents are, but can't exactly bring forwards any real accusations, because if they would lead to a conclusion, and that innocent would die, there would be one more nail in your coffin...

So there's the "with nothing else to go on" etc. You cleverly took Firefoot's claim to cover you - well it was about the only option you had... It would have been a miracle, had you voted otherwise...

[Mithalwen]

Wow .... lots to read for once ....

I am sorry I cannot be around more but I don't have the internet at home so I have had to drive to a cyber cafe (20 mile trip) to get in now. It is just the best I can do...

[Mithalwen]

BLimey .. I really am going to have to read carefully - since has been pointed out this is desperate. We have so few active players and those that are are in incompatible timezones. I have a horrible feeling that it will be another repeat of the Sleepy Ranger thing.... Is there any point in commenting more... I feel like I will be talking to myself again and so might aswell keep my own counsel ....

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Is there any point in commenting more... I feel like I will be talking to myself again and so might aswell keep my own counsel ....

You know as well as I do, that we need everyone's comments here. So don't refrain from this! We have a wolf to catch tonight.

[Mithalwen]

The quietness bugs me.... the wolves could all be quiet and just feeding off our ideas... I am not sure I made a good call with sleepy but I really didn't think Jenny was guilty. Anyway it is too late too worry about that now. With the ranger gone we have even less margin for error.

I will do my best - but my record on spotting wolves is not great. Other than the first game I have only managed to vote for one when I only had a choice of 2!

So the only vote so far is for Valier ....... Well she has never exactly figured on my probable innocents lists due to the frothy insubstantial posts on the first 2 days. She still thinks I am a clever wolf despite the fact that if I were a wolf I would have wasted two opportunities to dispose of the one person who had accused me. Thinlomien and Folwren both had suspicions of Valier so she profits more by their deaths.

Nogrod, you seem very confident about Roa and I need more than a backwards skim read to understand exactly why so bear with me.


I also want to look at what little, our absentees have left us. Eonwe and Elu as well as Jenny and Gandalf... though some are less absent than others...! At this stage I can't continue to take Jenny's innocence for granted ... so I'll be back... sorry this has taken so long... but I have had to retype

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Nogrod, you seem very confident about Roa and I need more than a backwards skim read to understand exactly why so bear with me.

I also want to look at what little, our absentees have left us. Eonwe and Elu as well as Jenny and Gandalf... though some are less absent than others...! At this stage I can't continue to take Jenny's innocence for granted ... so I'll be back... sorry this has taken so long... but I have had to retype

I am confident about it, and you should be too, if you follow her fall during this day's discussion: error after error, and then panic. Wulfish, not ordo-like.

If you read Jenny's post onthe discussion thread, you would have noted, that her absence could continue up to Monday (RL-time). So maybe that is no reason to jump on her. I kind of remember, that it was you, who made quite an emotional speech for her RL in a less critical situation - for a cause, I agree! But now you are ready to turn your back, when the wolves could be caught?

Are you also starting to slip? I hope you aren't. Wouldn't like to see you as the last WW nominee...

[Valier]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

The problem is that it is only really helpful if there is real substance and amount to people's posts; it didn't reveal much about Eonwe or Elu, but Valier's turned up some interesting things

.

I don't see what you found interesting in my posting.If you would care to elaborate.

After doing this, I have become quite suspicious of Valier. I can’t really tell if she’s a sloppy wolf or just frothy and rather… inept? It seems entirely possible to me that if she’s a wolf she wants to attack the loudmouths because the other two wolves are both quiet ones

.

I don't know how else to put this so you will get it. I am not "Frothy" are you insinuating that I have rabies? Am I foaming at the mouth? I just don't get this. Yes I am getting defensive! I don't know how else to defend myself to you. Anyone can find wolfish behavior in any post they read.

I don't want to be killed just because you think I'm inept. That is how I post! I am trying to be as helpful as I can.

I believe I know who the seer is and I am pretty sure they would have dreamt of me last night.We need to kill a WOLF today not another Ordo or worse yet our Seer.

I don't like that Roa just followed Firefoots analysis of me today and voted for me again.Like I said yesterday there are key players and YES I did say they are normally loud innocents and YES I still voted for Mith. As for my vote for her it was because I really was confused and voted for someone who I really felt at the time could be a wolf. Firefoot has been pretty much concentrating on me and Roa. I think Roa is an Ordo because if she is a wolf I don't think she would have voted for me again today after I declared my innocence yesterday.

I think today Firefoot has swayed enough people towards killing me, but to me this sounds kind of like what a cobbler would do and since we don't have a cobbler I lean towards him being a wolf. But with all the people not contributing I find this game the hardest to play so far. I could be wrong about Firefoot, but then again maybe not. I have played fairly well in other games even with my "Frothyness" and have still managed to lynch a few wolves here and there. So maybe we should not look badly at me because of the way I post.

[Mithalwen]

[QUOTE=Nogrod]

If you read Jenny's post onthe discussion thread, you would have noted, that her absence could continue up to Monday (RL-time). So maybe that is no reason to jump on her. I kind of remember, that it was you, who made quite an emotional speech for her RL in a less critical situation - for a cause, I agree! But now you are ready to turn your back, when the wolves could be caught?

QUOTE]


No, I am aware that she won't have posted, in my hasty retype I omitted a qualifying phrase... and I still think that she is genuinely innocent but in my last game I was happily saying that i was sure a wolf was innocent until I had a choice of 2 and it became relatively obvious I had been wrong. You will understand that in these dire circumstances, it is sensible to check everything. And so I will ...but I have been distracted by other matters so I am a bit behind.

I do stand by my speech on principle but I doubt my own judgement. It was nasty to accuse Jenny of using her RL as cover... but that doesn't automatically mean she is innocent. I believe her innocent but it isn't proof. But she is certainly not high up my list ..quite the reverse.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

OH, how stupid of me!

Now one innocent is having the first vote (that holds, if the wolves are not so cunning as to vote for one of their own kind to uplift the suspicion: I think wolves could do that to reach their goal, maybe?)! In the case of a draw, we'll be losing her!

Could you explain why you are sure that Valier is innocent? Given that it was a hairs breadth decison for me last night, I would like your reasoning...

[Valier]

Originally Posted by Mith

Thinlomien and Folwren both had suspicions of Valier so she profits more by their deaths.

I don't see how I would profit from their deaths. Don't you see what the Wolves are doing? They are using me like a pawn, they didn't kill me last night because alot of you suspect me. They would be stupid to kill an Ordo everyone suspects, it takes the heat away from them. They want you to think I killed the people who suspected me. I'm not that "Frothy"

I find that there is usually a "Loud" wolf who uses the quiet Wolves at their disposal. The quiet ones will eventually bite the dust because of their quietness. But the "loud" wolf almost always sticks out their neck early on and makes it to the end, because they have "proven" their "innocence", by voting for their fellow wolves.Take this as you will, but I assure you I have seen this before. If we don't get the louder wolf first they will surely win.

[Nogrod]

=Valier
Firefoot has been pretty much concentrating on me and Roa. I think Roa is an Ordo because if she is a wolf I don't think she would have voted for me again today after I declared my innocence yesterday.

What kind of an argument is that??? Would you please elaborate a little? I'm taking this as a highly susceptible one. How on Middle Earth would anyone's plead about his/her innocence lead straightly to certain reactions on part of the others?

Mithalwen
You will understand that in these dire circumstances, it is sensible to check everything.

I'm beginning to feel quite the contrary. We need to have suspects with some real backing now, not those "there is a possibility of X being something or another, but really couldn't say". Let's not waste our time (1½ hours), but bring forth good cases!

EDIT: Cross-posted with Mith & Valier

[Mithalwen]

Well there was a lot more time when I started trying to post ..... and I am one of those people who takes about half an hour to leave the house because they have to check several times that they haven't left the gas on and doors unlocked...

[Nogrod]

=Mith
Could you explain why you are sure that Valier is innocent? Given that it was a hairs breadth decison for me last night, I would like your reasoning...

I have not claimed her innocence as a fact. Read my post carefully. I'm just worried about all this nonsense distracting us from killing a very believable wolf. There sure is more case over Roa than Valier, so let's just concentrate on the essentials. Meaning also, that if you can come up with real evidence over Valier that would out-do my evidence over Roa, I might be ready to change my mind...

[Valier]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

What kind of an argument is that??? Would you please elaborate a little? I'm taking this as a highly susceptible one. How on Middle Earth would anyone's plead about his/her innocence lead straightly to certain reactions on part of the others?

I think it would be a big mistake on her part if she was a wolf, voting for me after I stated my innocence making it two days in a row she's voted for me. I have learned from past games that a Wolf will not do this unless they are really bold. She seems easily swayed by an empty analisis from Firefoot. To me Firefoot could be the wolf brains and there for try to sway others away from himself with "Wise" words.Wolves usually do not vote first or start a bandwagon, because it makes everyone look at them more closly. But by just swaying the vote in their favor it is much less bold.

[Firefoot]

I think that Mith is sensible to be considering all her options - it would not do to plunge blindly into the voting just following what everyone else had said. We need people to make informed decisions based on what they think.

Valier - I would still like to know why you think Mithalwen is suspicious. You have provided us with no reasons or evidence.

I'm glad to see that we at least have a couple more people contributing to the discussion.

I'm still confused about when this day is ending. Do I have a little more than one hour or a little more than two?

I'm going to try and get in one of those analyses on Jenny now. If I have time, I'll try and do a couple more people as well - Nogrod would probably be next on the list.

Oh, and may I repeat: I am a she.

[Nogrod]

=Mith
Thinlomien and Folwren both had suspicions of Valier so she profits more by their deaths.

What kind of an accusation is this? We all know, that those were first day's wild guesses or "hunches". There's no reason for anyone to act on them!

I'm beginning to have doubts on you Mith... if you can't come up with some explanations.

[Elu Ancalime]

I leave for one day, and another gifted is killed. And quite brutalily, reminds me of Hannibal Lecter. It must have been a lucky guess though, because I dont remember Folwren doing anything ranger-esq, if there would be something he could do. So now its open pickins i guess....crap. This is really bad.

But im glad Firefoot and Nogrod are still here, they seem to be making the most helpful suggestions and rational judgement....

But before I begin self-analysis, I would like to extend an apology to JennyHallu.

I realize that I voted for her, And I beleive I would like to rephrase what I 'meant' to say: I even remembered in my Mind that she posted she would be gone, and it simply must have slipped. However, that is not all of it. It may have sounded paradoxal that i said id didnt think she was a wolf, and then voted for her anyway. What I was trying to say was that of all of us, she was acting the most wolvish to me. Per se, on a scale of one to ten (1 being most innocent and 10 being an wolf with linking proof) i would say the majority of the villagers were a 4 and Jenny seemed to be a 5 or 6 to me. Sorry about any mixups.

I will back later to present more thoughts once I have read today's posts...
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Extreme q vaporizer

[Mithalwen]

Ok - I guess having found Valier, to use the phrase she hates though it be apt, for two days I have to get over my instincts in order to support yours. Also she is rather sensitive about Firefoot's comments and I am rather inclined to trust Firefoot who has overcome my initial qualms and has been solidly provoking and making discussion throughout. But whatever you say I do want to make sure that early day prejudices don't cloud my choice. That reluctance perhaps tipped the balance for me last time and an innocent Sleepy died. Maybe if I had gone for Valier another innocent would have died - I don't know.

"One innocent having the first vote" did seem to imply confidence in Valier's innocence. btw

[Valier]

Firefoot please read post 181 for my reason on voting for Mith. And no I will not go into it anymore It really was like a first day vote! This game is hard with all the people gone.

Nogrod you are making more sense with every passing post!

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

I'm still confused about when this day is ending. Do I have a little more than one hour or a little more than two?

I'm going to try and get in one of those analyses on Jenny now. If I have time, I'll try and do a couple more people as well - Nogrod would probably be next on the list.

Has anyone PM'd Kitanna about it? I'm also worried about that.

Don't waste your time on her, for with these minutes we have better usage. There have been substantial discussion only today and maybe yesterday late evening. There is nothing new there.

But please go analyzing me instead. That would make even a little sense. Although I would like to see you looking at Roa's messages from today and see for yourselves!

Only a wolf would like us to be confused and search tiny bits and pieces from everywhere (there really is nothing new there!) and not concentrate on essentials.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

"One innocent having the first vote" did seem to imply confidence in Valier's innocence. btw

It's quite misleading to quote other people intentionally in a wrong light!!! Read the quote please... (#174)

=Nogrod
OH, how stupid of me!

Now one innocent is having the first vote (that holds, if the wolves are not so cunning as to vote for one of their own kind to uplift the suspicion: I think wolves could do that to reach their goal, maybe?)!

Sorry...

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

What kind of an accusation is this? We all know, that those were first day's wild guesses or "hunches". There's no reason for anyone to act on them!

I'm beginning to have doubts on you Mith... if you can't come up with some explanations.

It was a comment in response to an accusation not an accusation in itself. If you read the preceding sentence..

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

It's quite misleading to quote other people intentionally in a wrong light!!! Read the quote please... (#174)



Sorry...

I am not trying to put anyone in a wrong light I am just trying to understand and I am now more confused than ever. I can't help what you think but I genuinely thought you were certain of Valier's innocence and since I wasn't, I really wanted to know why. Or am I meant to do what you want unquestioningly?

[Elu Ancalime]

Hmm...well, I think I kinda have an idea of whats going on....in context, anyway...
So it sounds like Nogrod and Roa have been going back in forth exchanging theories...and Mith and Valier have been more solid (which is more tha I can say about my self, I regret to admit), and it looks like Mith will have something on Jenny soon. Firefoot seems to be normal-rational, patient.

I can formulate my own suspicoins of what is going on right now, but they are not concrete and I need to read over again, just to clarify what's been said and the 'feelings' i guess.

So, um, would anybody like to make a quick summary of whats happened so far today? (since we have......2/3 hours depending on Kitanna's timeframe, and I want to put in a reasonable vote; its dangerously risky now.) My vote is (equally important with the other villagers) crucial today, and I dont want to be a random/gut feeling/flimsy accusation/wrong comprehension. Thank you....
________
Extreme q

[Mithalwen]

Sorry Nogrod, I think I understand now..... I find "tone of voice" hard online .. and i might be getting a bit oversensitive... I thought you meant I was trying to put someone in a bad light deliberately.

If the time has moved, I can't stay to the end. Too late with work tomorrow....

[Firefoot]

This would have taken much less time if I had not been called away from my computer... urgh...

Jenny:

Post 5
Randomly accuses Sleepy, Elu, and Roa. To foster discussion?

Post 10
Randomly accuses Eonwe. Asks Mithalwen for a biscuit (still don’t know how much there is to this).

Post 12
Suggests lynching the last person to contribute to the discussion.

Post 16
An analysis apparently based largely on occupation. Lommy, Sleepy, Roa, Nogrod, Elu and Folwren are suspicious, Gandalf, Wilwa, and Valier are in between, me, Jenny, and Mithalwen are innocent in this list.

Post 26
She advises spreading out the vote, making sure we understand our information, and looking closely at anyone who talks a lot. She comments about my contradictiveness, a point that she has “stolen” from Mithalwen, who she seems to mention a lot. A wolf using an innocent? I don’t think it is a wolf relying too much on a fellow wolf anymore, as I am thinking Mithalwen is innocent.

Post 30
She seems to go back on some of her statements in the previous post, revising them a little bit to make them seem more acceptable to people. This quote is rather… interesting: “I mean, really, if I were a wolf, it seems obvious that it would be stupid to be quite so vociferous. It certainly seems to bring suspicion immediately on my head, which is not at all my intention, as I am innocent.” Well, a wolf wouldn’t want to bring suspicion on themselves either. In fact, this quote seems to suggest strongly to me that perhaps she is a wolf saying how she could be doing things differently. Perhaps strategy A seemed not to be working?

Post 36
Advises Sleepy to be more careful in ascribing quotes to the wrong people. Defends herself to Folwren. Generally, she seems pretty defensive – because she has something to hide?

Post 40
Gratitude to Folwren for elaborating.

Post 44
Advises Sleepy not to give up as if he would be innocent then lynching him would not be in the best interest of the village. If she is a wolf, this would be a good thing to say to make her look innocent, but since this is her first game… it seems to speak in her favor.

Post 47
Apologizes for mixing up Lommy’s gender

Post 51
States voting thus far. Repetition of how good Mithalwen’s muffins are. (Is it just me who finds this really odd?)

Post 61
Request for clarification on some people’s points.

Post 66
Votes Wilwa to save herself and for her quietness. Fair enough, I suppose.

Post 70 & 72
Both one-liners about the status of the voting.

Post 98
An explanation of her absence and the previous day’s vote. Seems pretty fair to me.

Hm... I'm still not really sure. Some things seem to point to her guilt, others to her innocence. She's not nearly as suspicious as some others.

Okay, I'm going to start on Nogrod but it will take a while... he's posted a lot. So you may get it in halves depending on how long it takes.

Valier - I still do not see why Mithalwen is suspicious to you. All you said about Mith in that post was this:

Like I said yesterday there are key players and YES I did say they are normally loud innocents and YES I still voted for Mith. As for my vote for her it was because I really was confused and voted for someone who I really felt at the time could be a wolf.

That tells me nothing about why.