Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

QT contains:

G55 (Cobbler), Rikae (Innocent), Huey (Infector), Kit (Ranger), Sally (Hunter), Legate (Innocent), Lhuna (Infector), and Lal (Innocent).

Five Innocents against three baddies.

x/d with previous four

Don't forget Mac.

[Loslote]

At this point, I would be willing to vote Rune, Ka, or maybe Eonwe. I don't want to vote Zil right now - I don't know how much I believe that both he and Lhuna were involved in the Kit thing in the same way.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Hi I am reading through the thread right now, but thought I would comment on Shastas long posts (don't know if my own quotes are included)

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Re: Rune - here's the flip-flop in its entirety.



Underlining mine. Exactly ten minutes later:



This whole series has nothing to do with Eonwe - Rune barely mentions him as someone he might vote. To postulate that as a pattern of behavior, as Ka does here -

I guess I can see how arrive at that conclusion, if of course you don't understand the context of the posts.

Anyways, let me explain. The first post is me reacting to the events of the day as I read through the thread. It might be a short post, but it was actually put together over the course of 45 minutes or so.

My post 10 minutes later is a summarization of my top suspects.
You see when I decide who to cast my vote for, i normally take into account what has happened through out the game, and not just during the last day.

So put simply the posts wasn't intended to align 1:1 or be a continuation of one another, as they did not deal with the same issues.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Now that you mention it, I guess you could read me and Lhuna's exchange as Lhuna trying to look good by pointing out a flaw in my reasoning, while it didn't really work because it didn't look like a flaw to anyone who didn't know Rune is a wolf?

If Rune is a wolf, I would hazard a guess that THE Ka is too. Remember how she compared me and Lhuna's arguments (in a manner that I can't call anything but weird) and came to the conclusion that mine is better? How convenient if Rune was her packmate and she was basically saying "shh Lhuna, let the innocents faultily conclude our packmate is innocent".


edit: xed with everyone

Hum. Could it be as easy as Rune/Ka/Eonwe?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by loslote

at this point, i would be willing to vote rune, ka, or maybe eonwe. I don't want to vote zil right now - i don't know how much i believe that both he and lhuna were involved in the kit thing in the same way.

:d

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Hum. Could it be as easy as Rune/Ka/Eonwe?

That seems too easy, but I think we have to lynch one of them toDay, it makes too much sense to not give it a try.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

What happened to that post of mine? All the letters have become lowercase and I can't edit any of them to be uppercase.

[Boromir88]

So this might go completely opposite of what I've been championing for with the QT for days. But I do want to put a reminder that we still have the living seer, so while this is an unexpected choice for the QT, they have no known evidence to Rune's guilt or innocence. Same applied to Lhuna yesterday.

It might turn up beneficial/we find out more from it tomorrow, but for today, it's too much of a turnaround to make in 2 hours.

[A Little Green]

I'm sorry for my lousy participation toDay, I still feel awful and can't stick around. I've skim-read the thread but that's about it, and don't have the brain capacity to think about Rune, so I'll go with -

++ Inziladun

Mainly because of his compatibility with both known wolves (see below). Also his reactions to being implicated by the possible attempt to save Huin on D2 - paranoia/defensiveness re: how bad it made him look, then after Sally had come under a significant amount of fire for similar behaviour, he essentially changes tack and tells people to lynch him if they like. Then comes in minutes into the next Day with a ready-made case against Lommy for her involvement in lynching Sally. None of this sits right with me.

Originally Posted by moi

Inzil
Very possible packmate for both. I’m trying very hard to avoid my earlier tunnel vision problem here (sorry Mac ) and expected to find something between Inzil and Lhuna that would make him look less suspicious, but – nope. His interactions with Huin were, as previously discussed, mutual suspicion without votes either way, and Inzil voting for Mac on D2 in a way that could have been an attempt to save Huin. Meanwhile he and Lhuna barely mention each other; on D4 Inzil says the QT pick is "interesting" but Lhuna isn't his first choice, and votes for Lommy in the same post. This is certainly consistent with his crusade against Lommy that started pretty much the minute D4 began and that I’m still not comfortable with; but as pretty much the only time either of them expresses an opinion about the other, it looks pretty bad.

Apologies again, I really hope to be able to contribute more toMorrow (in whichever thread).

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

What happened to that post of mine? All the letters have become lowercase and I can't edit any of them to be uppercase.

It must have read : D as an all uppercase post. During the Sally deadline, I responded to a post where she said she was going to hunt me with "DON'T." and it autocorrected it to "don't.", so I think all caps isn't allowed.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I can't see them splitting their votes. Surely there was a bloc against the evil contingent.

All it would have taken is an early innocent vote for Rune, three baddies pile on that, votes are tied, Lhuna breaks it. It's possible.
But assuming the innocents voted wolf!Rune conventiently happens to work in your favour, doesn't it?


Then again, I wonder whether calling him Rune Son of Bjarne, Son of Marx might indicate that the final vote was Legate's, as he has referred to Rune and Kath as Marx and Kant a few times. Though I guess it might also be a joke from Nog.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Loslote

That seems too easy, but I think we have to lynch one of them toDay, it makes too much sense to not give it a try.

For one thing, it means innocent-Zil. Hmm.

Thought exercise - who's the most likely to be innocent in Rune/Ka/Eonwe?

I think Rune - I wasn't really considering him until the QT vote.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

For one thing, it means innocent-Zil. Hmm.

Thought exercise - who's the most likely to be innocent in Rune/Ka/Eonwe?

I think Rune - I wasn't really considering him until the QT vote.

I think Eonwe. I've been interpreting Ka's latest posts as trying to tie you and Eonwe together to implicate you, but she could plausibly be doing that even if *both* you and Eonwe are innocent, just to try to get at least one of you lynched.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Don't forget Mac.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

All it would have taken is an early innocent vote for Rune, three baddies pile on that, votes are tied, Lhuna breaks it. It's possible.
But assuming the innocents voted wolf!Rune conventiently happens to work in your favour, doesn't it?


Then again, I wonder whether calling him Rune Son of Bjarne, Son of Marx might indicate that the final vote was Legate's, as he has referred to Rune and Kath as Marx and Kant a few times. Though I guess it might also be a joke from Nog.

I don't think that's how the math works.

Innocent (Rikae, for example) votes Rune.

Huin/Lhuna/G55 all jump on and vote Rune.

Mac/Sally/Kit/Legate/Lalaith can vote someone else as a bloc of 5.

Now, if they didn't do that, I guess it's possible, but still, they must have known many of us were taking the QT vote as innocent-based.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I think Eonwe. I've been interpreting Ka's latest posts as trying to tie you and Eonwe together to implicate you, but she could plausibly be doing that even if *both* you and Eonwe are innocent, just to try to get at least one of you lynched.

Hmm. Maybe. I think Ka's lack of talking much about Eonwe is telling, though.

Although I haven't looked specifically to see how much Ka said about Rune either.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I don't think that's how the math works.

Innocent (Rikae, for example) votes Rune.

Huin/Lhuna/G55 all jump on and vote Rune.

Mac/Sally/Kit/Legate/Lalaith can vote someone else as a bloc of 5.

Now, if they didn't do that, I guess it's possible, but still, they must have known many of us were taking the QT vote as innocent-based.

They managed to vote for Lhuna yesterDay, I think we have to assume they're working together fairly well and are sending us very deliberate signals.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Now, if they didn't do that, I guess it's possible, but still, they must have known many of us were taking the QT vote as innocent-based.

Especially after their advice was taken yesterDay, with dramatic results.

x/d with Lottie, who makes the same point

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Could lightning strike two Days in a row? There are some sharp people over there, no question. It isn't the way I would have voted toDay, but then I seem to recall saying that yesterDay....

x/d with Lottie

You know it doesn't.

But I get why you would say that.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The Quarantine Thread has given its vote.


++ Rune Son of Bjarne (Son of Marx)

I expected to get a bit of attention today, but honestly I thought it would have regarding the timing of my vote yesterday (considering Lhuna turned out being an infector). Really surprised as both Legate and Lalaith to be reasonably convinced of my innocence.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm going to make Lommy happy and ++Ka - I don't see myself going much of anywhere else after the events of the last couple hours.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I don't think that's how the math works.

Innocent (Rikae, for example) votes Rune.

Huin/Lhuna/G55 all jump on and vote Rune.

Mac/Sally/Kit/Legate/Lalaith can vote someone else as a bloc of 5.

Now, if they didn't do that, I guess it's possible, but still, they must have known many of us were taking the QT vote as innocent-based.

Right, I was working with the wrong number (omitting Mac).


I'm not ready to vote Rune quite yet, but I could go with either of Ka or Eönwë (duly noted about Morgoth's Breath).

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

I expected to get a bit of attention today, but honestly I thought it would have regarding the timing of my vote yesterday (considering Lhuna turned out being an infector). Really surprised as both Legate and Lalaith to be reasonably convinced of my innocence.

That's a good point, but probably not in the way you meant. If Legate and Lalaith were convinced to vote for you, they must know something in the QT that we don't in the living thread.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Loslote

That's a good point, but probably not in the way you meant. If Legate and Lalaith were convinced to vote for you, they must know something in the QT that we don't in the living thread.

Such as?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

That's an honest question, by the way, because I can't see what they could know that we don't. They were right on Lhuna yesterday, sure, but they aren't - can't be - infallible.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Such as?

A slip by Huinwolf seems the most likely.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

That's an honest question, by the way, because I can't see what they could know that we don't. They were right on Lhuna yesterday, sure, but they aren't - can't be - infallible.

Indeed. Unless Huey and Lhuna have been careless, the QT mainly has to work with what we have here.

x/d with Lottie

[Eönwë]

Just skimmed and wanted to check in for a moment (will be back properly in about half an hour). I've been suspecting Rune for Days.

++ Rune

I'm also very suspicious of anyone trying to immediately discredit/minimize what the QT has said - obviously, the innocents don't know anything, so reasonable doubt is merited, but I don't like these two reactions:

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Dang. How likely is it that Lhuna decided this vote?

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I am also very surprised.

I'm taking this as "stop taking Rune's innocence for granted" at the very least.

But enough reason to do a legate180 and vote him?

Ehhhhhh.........

I need to think this over. Possibly look at Rune's posts if I have the time (there aren't that many and they aren't that long).

[Inziladun]

So we currently have:

Kath--> Inzil
Greenie--> Inzil (2)
Shasta--> TheKa
Steve--> Rune

[Shastanis Althreduin]

That's a consistent reaction from those two, for what that's worth:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

This, and Lommy's post as well, rub me the wrong way. Smacks of trying to get us to mistrust the QT vote as not coming from a good place - while the dead innocents don't have any extra knowledge, I think there's slim-to-no chance they mess up, split 3/3, and give the evil deaders control (because that's literally the only scenario in which evil gets control.)

While sure, it's not impossible, I think there's a tiny enough chance of it occurring that I plan to fully trust the QT vote as coming from an innocent perspective, and casting pre-emptive doubt on it strikes me as shady.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Loslote

A slip by Huinwolf seems the most likely.

In the hands of the innocent dead, I can't see any of the evil-doers being careless. I don't know Huey that well, but G55 and Lhuna are probably having a blast posting nonsense, not at all related to anything that's going on here.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

I'm also very suspicious of anyone trying to immediately discredit/minimize what the QT has said - obviously, the innocents don't know anything, so reasonable doubt is merited, but I don't like these two reactions:

I don't think it's such an outlandish reaction when they vote somebody you felt very much was innocent.

[Boromir88]

Eonwe's vote looks very easy and bad. That sort of solidifies my choice.

I'll still be here posting some nonsense for tomorrow.

++Eonwe

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

A couple of comments on stuff that has been said today.

Originally Posted by Lommy #1122

And by the way, I still maintain that them dropping off the Brinn vote as soon as the innocent majority took over is a point in Brinn's favour. The innocents in the qt thread have read what lead to Huine and Gal picking Brinn for the second Day in a row, and they're in a much better position to judge Brinn's connection to Huine than we are.

I have long maintained my suspicion of Brinn, but Lommy makes a good point here. Though taking recent events into consideration I would like to stress that an innocent QT thread is clearly quite capable of mistakes.

Originally Posted by Kath #1120

Quote:

Except that Lhuna, one of the key people involved in that discussion has just turned out to be a wolf. So if you're thinking Inzil could be a wolf trying to lure people out, and then there's Lhuna who was a wolf, then that discussion is absolutely a source of suspicion.

I love this bit from Kath. Eönwë is once again taking a weird stance regarding Kitana, and she rightly points out the flaw in his argument. This and his continued suspicion of her is very peculiar indeed.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Pitch

Then again, I wonder whether calling him Rune Son of Bjarne, Son of Marx might indicate that the final vote was Legate's, as he has referred to Rune and Kath as Marx and Kant a few times. Though I guess it might also be a joke from Nog.

I very much doubt the mod would intentionally give us clues like that.

Hm. Is it just me or has Pitchwife's posting generally been kinda... scrambled toDay compared to usual? Like a wolf feeling the tide is turning against his pack? I mean, I still consider him likely innocent for the crucial Huine vote, but being unlikely wolf-on-wolf isn't the same as being impossible wolf-on-wolf

Originally Posted by Shasta

I'm going to make Lommy happy and ++Ka - I don't see myself going much of anywhere else after the events of the last couple hours.

Why does this make me happy?

Originally Posted by Shasta

Thought exercise - who's the most likely to be innocent in Rune/Ka/Eonwe?

Before the QT vote toDay I would have said "Rune" without a doubt. Now I need to reconsider what I'm basing my trust of Rune on. Personally I feel it's a bit of a coin toss between Ka and Eönwë. Eönwë could be my classic type of kneejerkily misinterpreting someone innocent as suspicious in ww, Ka on the other hand could still be eccentric good instead of eccentric evil. But that being said, I'm still more suspicious of both of them (and of Zil) than I am of Rune.

Also I don't "distrust" the QT vote. I just don't think they know so much more than us that we should follow them without a question, or that their vote couldn't be tampered with by the evil side (even though that's quite unlikely). There's a difference.


edit: xed with the last three

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Because I didn't hold my vote to the end, Lommy.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Because I didn't hold my vote to the end, Lommy.

Awwwwww how tragic I didn't even realise that! Good boy!

Gonna have a quick look at Rune's posts, but currently would still feel better about Zil, Ka or Eönwë.

[THE Ka]

(Back, sorry, trying to plan and coordinate with family stuff.)

Originally Posted by Pitch

I get where the suspicion of Ka comes from, but I wouldn't want to vote her after she just defended me against Shasta, because it would feel mean.

That's thoughtful, but if I look suspicious and you have evidence to identify so, then go for it. I'm not holding it against anyone for going ahead and playing the game.

Honestly, part of me is really still curious about the QT (as much as some of you wish I'd stop talking about mechanics... Sorry!), so if I end up there so be it.

Originally Posted by Shasta

but I also kinda want to hold my vote until the end on general principle.

Gotta keep the tradition alive friend.

Originally Posted by Boro88

I don't feel like I'm walking into a trap with her questions. So yeah, not sure, but feel good.

... Hmmm.


As for the QT vote... not expecting that and I don't really see why Rune.

Originally Posted by Zil

I can't see them splitting their votes. Surely there was a bloc against the evil contingent.

I'd certainly hope so, the innocent should hold majority and be suspicious of anything the other three say. To be zany, considering the two wolves can PM each other, they could have decided to push some other choice than Rune knowing the rest besides G55 would do the complete opposite, but that's a reach. I'd hope the majority would have considered that factor, because three shouldn't be able to overthrow that much of a majority.

I'd also assume that if anything, the innocents are going to trust any past insights their two gifteds could have, which might mean either Kit and Sally voted elsewhere, or at least one of them suspects Rune. Neither of them is the Seer, so at the end of it, whatever information they have isn't sure proof on roles. It would be down to the feeling of trust that innocents are going to want to back their gifteds.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by THE Ka

I'd certainly hope so, the innocent should hold majority and be suspicious of anything the other three say. To be zany, considering the two wolves can PM each other, they could have decided to push some other choice than Rune knowing the rest besides G55 would do the complete opposite, but that's a reach. I'd hope the majority would have considered that factor, because three shouldn't be able to overthrow that much of a majority.

I'd also assume that if anything, the innocents are going to trust any past insights their two gifteds could have, which might mean either Kit and Sally voted elsewhere, or at least one of them suspects Rune. Neither of them is the Seer, so at the end of it, whatever information they have isn't sure proof on roles. It would be down to the feeling of trust that innocents are going to want to back their gifteds.

This makes very little sense to me. How do you determine which players are "opposite" choices in a way that you can manipulate with? And why would any ordo trust a known hunter/ranger's word any more than a known fellow ordo's?

[Boromir88]

Not really a Ka-alysis, but just a point...on her vote yesterday.

Strongly agree with Lottie's take about Ka's vote for Lhuna yesterday. Technically there could be a wolf-on-wolf vote anywhere to a pack bold enough. I prefer to not look at the wolf-on-wolf votes as the most suspicious, but agree that Ka's vote has that look of wolf-on-wolf. She waffles a bit on on Lhuna doesn't bring up any more suspicions against her, and votes based on trust of the QT.

It was an early vote and what makes it look a good spot for wolf-on-wolf is that she vote Lhuna, but doesn't give really any more information to use against Lhuna.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Hum. Could it be as easy as Rune/Ka/Eonwe?

Unfortunately not. But could it be as easy as Rune/Ka/Shasta? Maybe. If both of you are trying to pin each other to me and I turn out to be innocent, doesn't that make your suspicion unfounded, thereby giving yourself a way out of suspecting each other?