Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[satansaloser2005]

As a RL note, I'll be painting the interior of my house today, but I've set an alarm so I remember to come back and vote. I'm hoping I can stick around long enough (before my fabulous helper friends get here) to see the dead thread vote and react to it.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Eönwë - I did consider it very likely that there isn't much wolf-on-wolf in the Huinewagon, but I wasn't as adamant about it as you claim. And if you read my subsequent post where I analysed the votes, I actually do point out which Huine votes look the most wolf-on-wolf to me (Brinn and especially Lalaith). That being said, I absolutely stand with my assesment that when we have evidence of people having voted in way that prevents a wolf lynch (again, slightly dependent on Mac's role though), I don't think we should focus on those who did the opposite. I'm not for giving the Huine voters a pass idefinitely, but I am giving them a pass for toDay. And those whose vote was particularly unwolfily placed, probably for a few more Days than that. I would advise you to do the same. There are a lot of people in this village and to a degree, you've got to pick who you focus on.

Maybe I made it sounds slightly stronger than it was, but this does seem pretty strong:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I don't really see basically any reason for a wolf to vote Huin (except possibly something like the second vote if it looked like it wouldn't gain momentum? I need to have a better look how did it actually go) - I mean it would have been an absolutely unnecessary sacrifice from their pov. Even if Mac is a wolf too, he was surely the more expendable one out of the two with the amount of suspicion he'd garnered, while Huin had largely slipped unnoticed until the last minute bandwagon.

And my point wasn't that you never considered the others, only that in your first post of the Day you made it sound very unlikely. And your post was the third of the Day, so it has a strong impact on the direction of the Day's conversation.

[Nogrod]

The Quarantine Thread has voted. They vote...

++ Brinniel



Votes thus far (two hours before the DL)

THE Ka -> Sally
QT -> Brinn

[satansaloser2005]

I don't know what I expected.

That makes me want us to leave Brinn alone for toDay, not that I was keen to vote her right now anyway.

[Loslote]

Huh. QT votes for Brinn again. Do they actually want Brinn lynched, or are they repeating yesterDay's vote as a way to refuse to give us anything from Huin to guess about?

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Sally

I enjoy how people are saying, "So if I have to choose between Dun and Sally...."

You realize it's pretty likely neither of us are wolves, right?

Likely how? Do you mean just in terms of statistics and wolf-villager ratio, or do you mean that you and Inzil in particular are likely innocents? If so, it's fair enough that you say this of yourself, but I'd like to hear why Inzil is an unlikely wolf.

Originally Posted by Lottie

I would be willing to vote for either of you toDay - just based on the timing of your votes yesterDay, I think you have to consider it - but I would almost rather vote Boro. His vote was very similar, timing wise, to yours, and I have a bad feeling about him in general. Also, I think he has more ties to other players than Sally, and I think Zil has been so suspected for so long that, if he is a wolf, his packmates aren't going to allow themselves to be tied to him, so I think we would learn more from quarantining Boro. Boro would be my first choice, followed closely by Zil, then Sally third.

I wouldn't mind any of these three. Initially I'd have said Inzil or Sally, but I've realised I haven't looked at Boro nearly closely enough. I was hoping to have time to reread him today, but I'm running out of time. So I'd say same trio but reverse order?

[satansaloser2005]

For Greenie: I just mean mathematically speaking. I honestly don't know how I feel about Dun.

I must paint! Back soon.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Hi just letting you know that I am around, but I am not yet caught up with events. I have about 63 posts to go through.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Lottie

Huh. QT votes for Brinn again. Do they actually want Brinn lynched, or are they repeating yesterDay's vote as a way to refuse to give us anything from Huin to guess about?

Possible - this is certainly about as little new content as they could have given us. I don't think we can deduce anything regarding Brinn's role from this though, as this would have been a fairly smart move from Huin and G55 regardless of whether Brinn is on their side or not.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Sally feels scrambly here.

I also don't get why people keep bringing up talking about Kit being the Ranger as a reason to call someone evil. It doesn't make sense - if you're a wolf, and you think someone's the Ranger, you just kill them in the night. If you're an innocent, and you think someone's the Ranger, you don't talk about it either. You only do it if you're the Cobbler wanting to point it out to the wolves, and the Cobbler is dead.

[Pitchwife]

Ka, I'm sorry for your loss.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The Quarantine Thread has voted. They vote...

++ Brinniel

Are they going to do that for the rest of the game? Boring.


I find it hard to reconcile Lottie's backing off of Mac and adding a fourth wheel to the Huiwagon with wolvishness. Also, would Hui have soft-suspected two of his packmates explicitly in connection with each other? I don't think so. I'm still leaning more towards Zil.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I also don't get why people keep bringing up talking about Kit being the Ranger as a reason to call someone evil. It doesn't make sense - if you're a wolf, and you think someone's the Ranger, you just kill them in the night. If you're an innocent, and you think someone's the Ranger, you don't talk about it either. You only do it if you're the Cobbler wanting to point it out to the wolves, and the Cobbler is dead.

YES. THANK YOU.

I mean, it's super not ideal, but there are other things that imply guilt, so quit focusing on the one thing almost everyone did wrong.


x'd with Pitch

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

That makes me want us to leave Brinn alone for toDay, not that I was keen to vote her right now anyway.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Huh. QT votes for Brinn again. Do they actually want Brinn lynched, or are they repeating yesterDay's vote as a way to refuse to give us anything from Huin to guess about?

There's no way to know. Brinn could easily be a wolf they're voting for just because they know we won't trust the QT.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

There's no way to know. Brinn could easily be a wolf they're voting for just because they know we won't trust the QT.

Then again, they would only do that if they were pretty certain Brinn wouldn't be a viable candidate. That's why the QT DL really blunts their power.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Then again, they would only do that if they were pretty certain Brinn wouldn't be a viable candidate. That's why the QT DL really blunts their power.

It's also an even split over there right now, so who knows who chose Brinn as a candidate.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Then again, they would only do that if they were pretty certain Brinn wouldn't be a viable candidate. That's why the QT DL really blunts their power.

Right. Even if they use the vote to mess with us, they still need to take into account that it counts in the tally and can get the target lynched.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I also don't get why people keep bringing up talking about Kit being the Ranger as a reason to call someone evil. It doesn't make sense - if you're a wolf, and you think someone's the Ranger, you just kill them in the night. If you're an innocent, and you think someone's the Ranger, you don't talk about it either. You only do it if you're the Cobbler wanting to point it out to the wolves, and the Cobbler is dead.

For my part, I think bringing it up yesterDay while Kit was still alive was based wolfy logic - if you're a wolf, you know who your packmates are, so you know that Kit either is a Ranger or an innocent who said something weird/is planning for a potential fake-reveal for some complicated plan. If you're an innocent, you're more suspicious of everyone and thus you might be less inclined to accept it as 100% truth.

So if you're a wolf, looking at those who are avoiding what seems obvious to you is low-hanging fruit for manufacturing suspicion. But there is no reason for an innocent to suspect that a wolf that believes that Kit is the Ranger is going have her as suspicious if they're just going to kill her in the Night, especially given that (IIRC) no-one had Kit as their main suspect, so it didn't look like they were going for a lynch either.

To summarise: it makes sense for innocents to not want to just immediately (and definitely not publicly) accept Kit as the Ranger, so I'm wary of those that suspected people for not doing so yesterDay, especially since I think wolves are more likely to have the thought process that leads to that seeming like something that could be suspicious (and therefore good for manufacturing fake suspicions).

[Eönwë]

My suspicions haven't changed since my last list, so Zil, Boro, and Sally are my top choices, followed by Lommy and Lalaith.

Since I have to go now, I worry that if I leave, there might be a bandwaggon for someone I don't think is evil, so, let's make this a thing:

++Sally

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Boro (because I'll never trust him again after the last game and I just remembered this last night )

No worries, I get it. I don't radiate trust that often. I've learned to live with it. I'm surprised Shasta still talks to me.



Non Mac/Huey voters

Kath ---> Inzil

Doesn't strike me as suspicious. Said she had to vote early and gave the reason in #427. Checks out.

Lhuna ---> Lommy

Seemed like a throw away. I still can't find the reasons for her suspicions and vote. Other than Lommy saying, if the wolves were trying to orchestrate an innocent lynch Day 1, it could have very well been for G55, because wolves would know she's not one of them. Lhuna calls it:

You would know, wouldn't you. Wicked. Tricksy. False.

And then in her vote for Lommy, doesn't give us anything except the weird parting shot. As far as "throw away" votes. Highly suspicious.


Mac ----> Lommy (2)

Mac sort of admits it's a throw away, but just because it was him who voted for Lommy, which ensures no one else would. He adds that he voted early because he was annoyed by people talking like he was going to hold his vote to save himself.

He made that vote before any one voted for Huey, or really even brought up voting for Huey. Mac was yesterday's news (no offense) and a lot of those questions, for myself, have been adequately answered. Are you glad we didn't have to autopsy you to find the answers? If you're upset I still have the butter.

Rune ----> Lottie

Can't get a good read on this vote. Looks like he's following his suspicions. At one point, before it became Huey's, it could have been Lottie's name alongside Mac's so I don't sense that Rune was throwing away his vote to avoid and keep away from Mac/Huey. Overall, I like the fact that he's asking people about their own suspicions. Could be a wolf-tactic, but he's being very direct and open about it.

There's more suspicious looking votes.

THE Ka----> Lottie (2)

Ka's vote made it Mac - 3, Huey - 2, Lottie - 2. It does look like a prime spot for a wolf to put in her vote to try to help Huey. Her suspicion of Lottie didn't come from nowhere, but just on general comments from other people (sally and Inzil who wound up voting for Mac) Lottie's name could have been there next to Mac's, instead of Huey's.

Vote placement is suspicious and looks like an attempt to help Huey. I haven't really been looking at Ka, beyond her posts feeling reasonable. I shall do so now.

After Ka's vote, everyone was either Huey or Mac.

Edit: crossed with everyone since the QT Vote. Shocker. *rollseyes*

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Back!

Originally Posted by Loslote

Huh. QT votes for Brinn again. Do they actually want Brinn lynched, or are they repeating yesterDay's vote as a way to refuse to give us anything from Huin to guess about?

I think they are doing this to give us no info, plus potentially even discourage us from it (depending what Brinn is). Anyway, clearly messing with us in some way, that's for sure.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I don't know what I expected.

That makes me want us to leave Brinn alone for toDay, not that I was keen to vote her right now anyway.

Breeeeep. Disagreed. I'd almost be tempted to shove it in the QT's face and vote her. But let's think about this for a sec.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

There's no way to know. Brinn could easily be a wolf they're voting for just because they know we won't trust the QT.

Yes, this is one, fairly plausible, option, in my opinion.

EDIT: x-ed since what I quoted

[Kath]

I won't be back now until deadline, and I still find Inzil the most suspicious based on what I said in my earlier post so:

++INZIL

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Also a quick list I made for myself just before I came back here:

Wary of:
Greenie
Lhuna
Inzil
Boro
Brinniel
Eönwë

Thought guilty earlier but think better now:
Lottie

Flip-floppy about:

Thinlómien
Sally
Lalaith
Macalaure

Nothing particular on:
Pitchwife
THE Ka

Feeling good about:
Kath
Shasta
Rune

[A Little Green]

Past bedtime for me I'm afraid.

As mentioned before, debating between Inzil and Sally - finding out Inzil's role would tell us more, but I'm slightly more certain about Sally whose behaviour today has looked, to use Shasta's word, much too scrambly for an innocent Sally with an unfortunate but accidental vote placement the Day before. Wouldn't be averse to lynching Boro either but haven't really had a good enough look at him to be sure, and also curious about Lhuna and Lommy and still not discounting Mac or Brinn but leaving them alone for now as there are stronger cases against the aforementioned others. At the time of writing this the tally looks like 1 for Sally and 1 for Brinn from the Cuties. Might as well go with -

++ Sally

Goodnight!

[Thinlómien]

Ka, I'm so sorry <3 Please do what feels best for you, don't worry about us. Whatever your role, it's not more important than real life. We will survive without you or without your super involved participation. Sending lots of hugs your way.

~*~

Not buying Sally's theatrics.

Originally Posted by Sally

You realize it's pretty likely neither of us are wolves, right?

It is possible but why is it *likely*, Sally? Even if you were innocent yourself, you should have no idea about Zil. Addendum: oh, so this is just about maths? Not a very strong argument, given that maths doesn't take into account that you both voted to save a known wolf.

I suggest we ignore the QT vote. I think voting Brinn is a way to mislead us - by voting the same person as before a wolf joined their ranks, they're doing their best to refuse to give us new information.

Originally Posted by Shasta

I also don't get why people keep bringing up talking about Kit being the Ranger as a reason to call someone evil. It doesn't make sense - if you're a wolf, and you think someone's the Ranger, you just kill them in the night. If you're an innocent, and you think someone's the Ranger, you don't talk about it either. You only do it if you're the Cobbler wanting to point it out to the wolves, and the Cobbler is dead.

Thank you, this is what I've been trying to say. Probably the Kit discussion was abunch of innocents and wolves who weren't thinking through their actions and it. would. once. again. make. more. sense. to. look. at. yesterDay's. lynch. which. involved. a. known. wolf. thnx.

I'm not sure why Boro calls the votes against me throwaway. Might I remind you I was the first one to get two votes? It could have developed into a bandwagon. It didn't. Some food for thought, if I may say so myself.


edit: xed with Greenie

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

It's also an even split over there right now, so who knows who chose Brinn as a candidate.

That's also a good point.

As for my vote, I would perhaps prefer something like either Brinn, Boro or Eönwë. Kinda switching between reasons for each.

EDIT: x-ed with Greenie and Lommy

[Thinlómien]

++Sally

THE Ka -> Sally
QT -> Brinn
Eönwë -> Sally 2
Kath -> Inzil
Greenie -> Sally 3
Lommy -> Sally 4

I'm 90% sure she's a wolf after the latest drama she tried to pull, so why not give her a headstart when I'm not half as convinced about anyone else.

[Pitchwife]

I'm looking through Lottie's posts of toDay and just read this:

Originally Posted by Loslote #598 replying to Zil #591

What an opening post. I am a little surprised that with all those quoted posts, your only actual comments are that Pitch and I are still suspicious...despite voting for a wolf at a pivotal moment...with no mention of the people whose votes might have worked to save Huin, which in my opinion, is a far more suspicious group of people. And which happens to include you.

So Zil explains why he didn't want to vote Hui because he mistrusted Lottie and me, and Lottie all but goes up in flames saying "How dare you still suspect us when we lynched a wolf?" When he actually hadn't said anything about whether he still suspected us or not. Then follows it up with this:

Originally Posted by Loslote #598

I broke yesterDay's voters into six groups, as follows, and I personally think those groups say a lot. Could there have been wolf on wolf? Absolutely, but I think you can still say that the people who really swung the vote Huin's way look pretty good.

Voted Huin early
Legate
Kitanna
Pitchwife
Lottie

I would say this group looks pretty decent. Why start up a whole bandwagon and encourage it if you don't have to?

Now this kind of self-gratulation irks me. If you help lynch a wolf and people think you look good for it, you gratefully accept that, but you don't use your vote to exonerate yourself and say you look good for it, because that makes it seem that the vote was, well, calculated to be used this way.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I'm not sure why Boro calls the votes against me throwaway. Might I remind you I was the first one to get two votes? It could have developed into a bandwagon. It didn't. Some food for thought, if I may say so myself.

It was me being sarcastic with Mac saying, no one else would follow because it came from him:

Lommy makes more sense at this point for obvious reasons. The mere fact that I voted for her probably makes it unlikely for her to gather any additional votes.~Mac

And well he was correct.

Edit: And now I read Ka's post. So, sorry to hear that . Hope you got some joy from being able to come back, but don't feel bad. We'll manage.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, one thing is (nearly?) for sure - the votes in Sallywagon can't all come from Wolves. (I mean technically... that would be super bold... but probably they wouldn't yet do something like that! Besides if it was these four, then they'd have no reason to.)

[Lalaith]

also don't get why people keep bringing up talking about Kit being the Ranger as a reason to call someone evil. It doesn't make sense - if you're a wolf, and you think someone's the Ranger, you just kill them in the night. If you're an innocent, and you think someone's the Ranger, you don't talk about it either. You only do it if you're the Cobbler wanting to point it out to the wolves, and the Cobbler is dead.

Wolves like confusing the village just as much as cobblers do.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Ka, I'm sorry for your loss.

Same from me. Having recently dealt with the same thing, I know it's doubly hard these days.
************************************************** ************

I don't really suspect Sally at this point, mainly because it seems the main point against her is the vote yesterDay, for which I can hardly cast stones.

x/d with Lal

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Possible - this is certainly about as little new content as they could have given us. I don't think we can deduce anything regarding Brinn's role from this though, as this would have been a fairly smart move from Huin and G55 regardless of whether Brinn is on their side or not.

I agree. I believe this votes is designed to mess with us more than anything else, and it is certainly working on me.

Anyways I am caught up, but my quick read-through has not yielded any new suspicions. I am impressed with how much information (non-verified) this village can deduct from voting patterns, no really you guys are awesome at this.

I am still feeling uneasy about Eonwe and Lottie.
Lottie's arbitrary and flexible rules for when a bandwagon starts bothers me a great deal, but I am willing to admit that the timing of her vote yesterday makes her look good (I am sorry if this is too non commital Brinn).
And for Eonwe it is the whole Kitanna thing.

I will go back and have a look at Inzil and Sally, as votes seem to center on them at the moment.

[Lalaith]

[RL] The Ka - I'm so sorry for your loss. My condolences to you and yours - I wish you all strength and courage in having to cope with this sad event at a time which is already difficult. [/RL]

[Inziladun]

You know what?
I'm not going to hold out to try to save myself.

++Brinn

For being Rikae's Day 1 vote, for getting by since, and because the QT baddies are daring us.

Do the same, vote for someone else, or me,

[Lalaith]

It's also an even split over there right now, so who knows who chose Brinn as a candidate.

Calling Nogs! Actually I'd like clarification from the Mod on this. What is the QT rule about a split vote? Is it the most recent arrival that has the casting vote?

[Brinniel]

Most Concerned About:
Inzil
Sally
Lhuna

Somewhat Worried About:
Boro
Rune
Lalaith
Eonwe

Not Sure About:
Kath
Ka
Shasta
Greenie
Lottie

Feeling Okay About:
Pitch
Lommy
Legate
Mac

I'm torn between voting Inzil and Sally. I think that at least of them are wolves, but I'm not sure if both of them are. And I'd like to hear more from Lhuna since she hasn't really been around toDay.

[satansaloser2005]

Hey, don't lynch your hunter!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Having recently dealt with the same thing, I know it's doubly hard these days.

<3
---------------------------------------------------------------


Looking at this sallywagon, I'm almost tempted to quote Zil's words about the Huiwagon yesterDay (as in, I don't trust half the people in there).


Btw what I just said about self-exoneration and calculated votes also applies to Eönwë's reaction to me this morning. "I drove the last nail into Huiwolf's coffin, how dare you suspect me?" But you had to vote at a point when your vote would likely be decisive, and if you knew that Mac would come up innocent if lynched, voting Hui was your only viable option. 'looks like it's going to have to be...' = 'I don't like it, but I have no choice'?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Calling Nogs! Actually I'd like clarification from the Mod on this. What is the QT rule about a split vote? Is it the most recent arrival that has the casting vote?

Most recent Day-lynched person would decide if they have a tie, so it would be the Wolf. But it could be that they didn't have a tie.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Hey, don't lynch your hunter!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Been wondering whether that remark before was just a remark or how hard you'd go on that. Okay. Now how do we deal with this situation, huh? Well, who are you hunting, or who do you claim you are hunting? Might help to take into account?

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Looking at this sallywagon, I'm almost tempted to quote Zil's words about the Huiwagon yesterDay (as in, I don't trust half the people in there).

Out of curiosity, which ones?

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Hey, don't lynch your hunter!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Will try not to (and I got you earlier).


Right now I'd prefer Lottie or maybe Eönwë, but I can get behind Brinn if need be.