Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXIV – The Evil Breath of Morgoth in Dor-lómin, game thread

[Lalaith]

Legate

They may just be a bit less reluctant to Wolf-on-Wolf vote than they would otherwise be. But nothing more, nothing less. It definitely does not mean that they would be eager to do so.

Yes, that was basically my point.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

So if Huin and Mac were both wolves, I would have expected more of a push towards another candidate from their unknown packmates since there were other options on the table too.

This is a good point. I or Lottie could have been better candidates. Maybe I should reconsider about Mac.

x/d with Lal

[Thinlómien]

Not exhibiting visible symptoms

Legate - he gives me a bad vibe every now and then, but he's overall looked quite innocent and his role in the Huine lynch makes me 90% certain he's innocent. I think he's too nice to bus a packmate that brutally.

Pitchwife - very innocent vote placement yesterDay, has given me an increasingly innocent vibe as the game has gone on. Not very worried about him at the moment.


Bear watching

Lottie - I can't shake the shady vibe I have from her, but her Huine vote looks very innocent. I repeat: if she was merely aiming for self preservation, she could have picked Mac over Huine, and Mac is either innocent or a more heavily suspected wolf than Huine was.

Kath - seriously flying under my radar. Can't give her a free pass on merely "not having done anything suspicious" anymore.

Lhuna - I like her cheerful tone and the way she seems to be going against the flow quite often, but I don't have any actual reasons to consider her innocent. I keep lowkey suspecting her mostly because she could easily be packmates with my other suspects or even with Huine.

Boro - oscillating between weird Boro and normal Boro in this game. The glimpses of normal Boro I have seen have been mostly very reassuring to me, but his yesterDay's vote makes me more wary of him again.

Rune - seriously under my radar. I used to lean innocent on him, but now I don't think I have enough grounds to think so. YesterDay's vote doesn't say much.


Bear even more watching (trying to differentiate here because I realised I put like 80% of the village in the same category)

Greenie - my brain is lowkey fixated on the idea that she's a wolf slipping under my radar. I don't have any great reasons to think so, and I do agree with a lot of her points and suspicions. (Well, I always do. After all, given that she's my sister so is it weird if our brains work similarly? ) That being said, it's however very interesting to me where she and I disagree, and I still think it lowkey dodgy how she avoided the whole Huinescussion yesterDay and instead kept discussing Mac and Brinn.

Lalaith - possibly the least innocent looking Huine voter - she's callously sacrificed packmates before, and associating herself with the ranger was a pretty safe move in general. But mostly I don't really have much on her either way, and she could as well be a wolf flying under the radar or an innocent flying under the radar...

Brinn - also not a glaringly innocent vote as far as the Huine votes go. Has been consistently suspicious all game, which paradoxically makes me slightly less worried about her. If anyone, innocent!Brinn would be a very easy suspicion target for the wolves. But that doesn't mean she's innocent of course. Also, Hui's defence of her makes me very confused. I originlly thought it looks quite wolf-on-wolf, but someone pointed out it looks almost like Hui slipping up that he knows Brinn is innocent. I'm quite torn about Brinn.

Eönwë - sealed Huine's fate, which makes me feel a little better about him. Otherwise I find him somewhat fishy and opportunistic (see: for instance the way he blames Shasta for holding onto his vote until things were resolved when he himself all but did the same) and he's also someone I consider a likely "fellow wolf" to a lot of people.

THE Ka - also "used to consider innocent on very little evidence, don't want to do so anymore". In fact, I've become slightly suspicious of her. The way she seems to play in her own little bubble, steering clear of controversy while "being helpful" very much reminds me of the "Fellowship of Saruman" ww game where she was rp'ing Radagast so endearingly in her own bubble with the birds and other cute animals that she flew under everybody's radar while she was actually a wolf. Also, her vote yesterDay is a little dodgy to me, as well as her staying away from the Huinescussion.

Shasta - pros: looks like he was shielding Kit. Cons: the way he hovered around yesterDay during the whole lynch without sticking his neck out. Also seemed reluctant to take part in the Huinescussion until he was forced to.


Would seriously consider quarantining

Zil - I used to think him quite innocent, and also was reluctant to join the chorus of lowkey Zil suspicion which seemed to be based on nothing more than the usual kneejerk "suspicious vibe" that always surrounds him - as I said, he's generally someone who's quite easy to get lynched so it makes sense for wolves to keep him on a suspicion list. But he's making me very uneasy now with his dodgy vote yesterDay, his fatalistic attitude about getting lynched toDay, and being fixated only on a few villagers (as someone said, convenient if he's a wolf thinking he's getting the axe).

Mac - okay, I hate to say this, but he has started to seem a lot more innocent to me. Like, my gut feeling is a lot better, but my logic still cannot fathom why innocent Mac would have acted the way he did yesterDay. Greenie summarised this quite well in her #666.

Sally - Eeevil cupcake. Eeeevil. Has been suspiciously safe in her choices since the beginning, tried to save Huine yesterDay, toDay first seemed to have given up and now is trying to convince people she'd have bussed a fellow!Huine. There's nothing innocent in this mix. Certainly my main suspect at the moment.


edit: xed with #674 and onwards

[Lalaith]

One more thing and then I really must go out into the sunshine. (kudos to all players who are able to post stuff on their phones - don't know how you do it. I need two tabs open on a pc to cope at all)
Greenie could you explain what you mean here? It might just be me being old and slow but the second part of your argument seems to contradict the first? Ie you start by saying Mac doesn't seem more innocent, but your last statement seems to imply he was, because if he was a wolf something else would have happened?

2) Not necessarily in my opinion - as I recall, it already looked like it was going to be between the two of them, and it's possible he decided to turn wolf-on-wolf to make whoever survived look better. I still think there's some merit to Lottie's point about it being somewhat unlikely that both of our major bandwagons yesterDay were against wolves, as we still had five wolves in play and at least some of them probably would rather have voted for an innocent than a packmate. Even given how last-minute the Huinwagon was, Inzil, Lommy and Lottie had also been voted, and Brinn was discussed. So if Huin and Mac were both wolves, I would have expected more of a push towards another candidate from their unknown packmates since there were other options on the table too

[Kath]

Well, swings and roundabouts there. Yay for a wolf for the lynch but boo for the loss of the Ranger.

For me, the conversation around Kit remains one of the most suspicious things to have come from yesterDay. If something suggests a player is Gifted, which Kit's reaction to G55's reveal so did, I can't see the sense in drawing attention to it for any other reason than to sow doubt and confusion.

That's why I voted Inzil yesterDay and a close second would have been Lhuna as they seemed to be the ringleaders in the discussion.

I've gone back and looked at it in a bit more detail today and a few other names popped up amidst the discussion.

Inzil is the first to mention it and does so very early on, it's why he stuck out at the ringleader to me. Everybody ignores it. It's doesn't come up again until the next page when Shasta appears.

Originally Posted by Shasta

I think perhaps Kitanna is my best read at the moment. I had fundamentally the same reaction to G55's eleventh-hour Ranger claim as she did.

Saw it, nodded, moved on. Assumed everyone was in the same boat here. No alarm bells rang for me at this as it felt like he was brushing past it. On the flip side, you could argue that this is actually a way of bringing it back up while seeming not to. It was the only thing in the post so it stuck out on its own. It didn't read that way to me though.

Originally Posted by Eonwe

I can't help wondering if Shasta and Kitanna aren't an Infector duo being too obvious and just messing with us (though whether this would make Brinn more likely to be an Infector or someone they're trying to frame is up in the air).

This then brings the subject up again. I didn't really see this yesterDay, or at least I saw this and just sort of dismissed it because I was assuming Kit was a Gifted and hadn't seen anything from Shasta that made me worry. Interesting that its almost said to force a focus on Brinn rather than the two people he's actually suggesting might be wolves though.

Originally Posted by Lhuna

Ditto. I'm kind of wondering how she's still alive. My reasoning goes round in circles but hovers more over somewhere unsettling.

This was in reply to Inzil and I really didn't like this either.

Originally Posted by Pitch

I third this. [Zil, my eyebrow raised at you earlier was me doubting you should have drawn attention to it, but it's out in the open now anyway.] It would have been very bold of a wolf to react this way to a gifted reveal, but it would have been very bold of an innocent too.

This was my thinking on the matter. Given Inzil and Lhuna had picked up conversation at this point, Pitch adding on to it wasn't great, but he was giving an opposing side to the argument.

Originally Posted by Inzil

It could hardly have stayed hidden. Thing is, the only way she could have known G55 wasn't who she claimed was if she was the Ranger herself. If that's the case, why on Arda would Rikae have been a better target over Kit (unless the Wolves indeed were antsy Rikae might be the Seer)?

This was the post that really made me suspicious. Because yes it could. In pages of analysis at this point, only 5 posts had mentioned it, one of which was Inzil's first one bringing it up and two more were in response to that.

Originally Posted by Kit

Second, I was just going to ignore Inzil and hope no one else brought it up. But I knew G55 was a Liar McLiarFace with her pants set ablaze.

Kit responds.

Originally Posted by Pitch

But seriously, Kit, if that is so, how are you alive? Another framing attempt?

Hmm. I suppose Kit had brought it up herself by now so conversation about it was going to happen. Is Pitch saying here that he does think she's telling the truth?

Originally Posted by Lhuna

How? As an ordo your certainty can only be asymptotic to 100% AT BEST. But I didn't think you would be so careless? flippant? bold? as to post that if you 100% knew for sure, if you get my meaning. Hence my reasoning in circles.

Edit: Or as a wolf, for that matter

This is what put Lhuna a very close second for my vote yesterDay. Kit had explained the reason for her admittedly not sensible outburst and this was unnecessary.

Originally Posted by Inzil

That's what I can't fathom. Does it give Rikae-as-possible-Seer more weight? Or could it point to a very bold Kitwolf?

Now honestly if Kit had been a wolf and had chosen to post herself laughing at G55 pretending to be the Ranger at a point when G55 could actually still have been saved from the lynch by the last few people voting elsewhere ... well quite frankly she'd have deserved a medal.

Originally Posted by Lhuna

Not so much pressing her for information as loudly wondering how she's alive and if she has anything to say about it.

Which she did. It should have been dropped before this point.

Originally Posted by Pitch

OK, I must say this kind of makes sense, or at least I'm inclined to believe Kit for now. It would really make no sense for a wolf to stick their neck out like that, because
if G55 died as the Ranger, she would come under fire the next Day, and
if G55 died as an ordo (or cobbler), we'd question how Kit could have known that, as we do now.
Why would she needlessly put herself into this predicament?

Anyway, I move we leave Kit alone for now. Let's see how long the wolves can afford to let a Ranger live.

Let's leave Kit alone now that everyone's helpfully had a chat about exactly which Gifted she might be.

Originally Posted by Inzil

I brought it up because I wanted to know why she would say that, and I thought it impossible the Wolves had not already been well aware of it.

Originally Posted by Lhuna

My thinking was more along the lines of she might either know who the Ranger is, or be unable to commit suicide at Night. But I agree with moving on for now.

And this is why I really didn't like these two yesterDay. They KEPT bringing it back up.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Also, IF Kit is the genuine ranger and the wolves left her alive in order to frame her (and because they prioritised possibly-seerish Rikae), they would want to make sure to bring the topic up, right? So I think my eyebrow actually stands.

Pitch's responses are always in reply to something else, and so they feel less like trying to keep the subject going, but they do actually manage to do just that.

Originally Posted by Legate

Sorry guys. But you are both suspicious as Morgoth wearing a tutu under the Two Trees. When you mentioned it first, fine. When you clarified that you wouldn't have talked about it if it didn't seem clear that it was "out in the open" anyway, fine. But when you continued battering it even after Kit answered you, I was like, what in the name of all the sons of Fëanor?!?

This is in regards to Inzil and Pitch. I agree, but I would have had Lhuna's name in there as well.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Also, if Kit is NOT the Ranger and the wolves decided to sacrifice her in order to draw out the real Ranger, I would implore the real Ranger to NOT come out just to expose her. I agree that I am hugely suspicious of Zil and, to a lesser degree, Lhuna and Pitch for continuing to talk about it. Drawing attention to it doesn't help the village at all.

Now on first glance this seems sensible, but I don't like this plea to the Real Ranger. Just ... obviously they wouldn't come forward.

Originally Posted by Inzil

I had (and have) no intention of voting for her. It just made no sense that Wolves would have let her alone.

If you don't actually think she's suspicious I do think that the conversation could have been avoided then. If she had still been alive toDay I'd have maybe understood it.

Originally Posted by Eonwe

I know last time I said that it is possible that they are both wolves being cheeky, but it does seem more likely that he was, at least in that instance, trying to bury this discussion by pointing to Kit's post as something anyone might say. Again, it is possible that they are being very bold wolves, but generally, it seems risky to attach so closely to another wolf especially when you've voted in the same way. So whoever Shasta thinks the Ranger is, I think he is trying to protect them here by trying to suppress this discussion that has just been blown open (luckily not enough for any reveals to occur). Thus doesn't necessarily say anything about Kit's role, or even what Shasta thinks about Kit's role - whether he believes/believed that she is a gifted, ordo, or wolf, discussion of the Ranger is dangerous for the real Ranger.

Interesting backtrack on his post from earlier. While also being incredibly non-commital.

A post of Rune's pointed out something I'd then missed from Eonwe:

Originally Posted by Eonwe

Kitanna - Not sure what to think of her now, but I haven't taken her off the hook completely.

He had her down as a possible vote candidate.

Then the voting/end of Day happened and wow that was a whirlwind. I only saw it all after the fact and it looked like posts were coming every few seconds! Eonwe or Shasta were down as the deciding vote. Ended up being Eonwe.

So Inzil I still don't like for the same reasons as yesterDay, Lhuna as well, and Eonwe is worrying me now that I've had more time to look at what was going on.

I will have crossed since 682 if there are more posts as I went bolding.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Greenie could you explain what you mean here? It might just be me being old and slow but the second part of your argument seems to contradict the first? Ie you start by saying Mac doesn't seem more innocent, but your last statement seems to imply he was, because if he was a wolf something else would have happened?

Ah, this is me being unclear - I think there's a "but" or "however" missing halfway through that quote! To clarify, I don't think Huin's vote for Mac makes Mac look more innocent, but there was another argument against them being fellow wolves that I found quite plausible.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Another thing: I have, like a lot of people, been thinking about wolf-on-wolf voting, and with two specific questions in mind:
1. Does Legate's first vote for Hui mean that I was wrong to suspect him yesterDay?
2. Does Hui's 3rd vote for Mac point to his (Mac's) innocence?

Another thing then crossed my mind. Would the fact that a dead wolf ensures that the baddie vote now dominates the QT, make wolves less reluctant to lynch each other? After all, this means the packmate can continue to be useful and push their agenda elsewhere...

My two cents: 1. Likely yes. 2. Likely no (Hui had laid the grounds for voting Mac earlier, and it might have looked weird to back out of it. Besides, their vote was also self-preservation.) "3". I don't think so. The qt has just one vote. One (publicly known!) wolf vote is not much of a consolation prize for a dead fellow, I'd say.

I did not like the Kit discussion yesterDay and I think everyone involved in it is low key stupid (including Legate who said like five times "please shut up about Kit" which is, paradoxically, a very loud way to address the situation). But really, can we tell if there were wolves involved or if it was just innocents who didn't necessairly think things through? I don't think the Kitscussion is more informative than the Huinelynch - which makes me a little wary of anyone who chooses to pay attention to it primarily (looking at Kath here).

[Lalaith]

Originally Posted by Kath

Now honestly if Kit had been a wolf and had chosen to post herself laughing at G55 pretending to be the Ranger at a point when G55 could actually still have been saved from the lynch by the last few people voting elsewhere ... well quite frankly she'd have deserved a medal.


Which she did. It should have been dropped before this point.


Let's leave Kit alone now that everyone's helpfully had a chat about exactly which Gifted she might be.




And this is why I really didn't like these two yesterDay. They KEPT bringing it back up.


Pitch's responses are always in reply to something else, and so they feel less like trying to keep the subject going, but they do actually manage to do just that.


This is in regards to Inzil and Pitch. I agree, but I would have had Lhuna's name in there as well.


Now on first glance this seems sensible, but I don't like this plea to the Real Ranger. Just ... obviously they wouldn't come forward.


If you don't actually think she's suspicious I do think that the conversation could have been avoided then. If she had still been alive toDay I'd have maybe understood it.


Interesting backtrack on his post from earlier. While also being incredibly non-commital.

A post of Rune's pointed out something I'd then missed from Eonwe:

He had her down as a possible vote candidate.

Then the voting/end of Day happened and wow that was a whirlwind. I only saw it all after the fact and it looked like posts were coming every few seconds! Eonwe or Shasta were down as the deciding vote. Ended up being Eonwe.

So Inzil I still don't like for the same reasons as yesterDay, Lhuna as well, and Eonwe is worrying me now that I've had more time to look at what was going on.

I will have crossed since 682 if there are more posts as I went bolding.

Kath this is all very interesting. Did you see my post #680? We seem to be on similar trains of thought.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I have to agree with Legate here – I don’t get how an evil-majority QT means we should try pre-voting again. Boro, can you explain?

I don't pass up an opportunity to bluff wolves. We know the QT vote cannot be trusted. So I want to see what name they put out there when given what they think I, and the collective, might do. If the last 2 DLs prove anything it's anything can happen in the final hour. I want to try to force the hands of the evil QT vote.

It won't go so far to determine anything with today's lynch, but can be used in hindsight tomorrow. In general the more information the better, even if that information is attractive bait. If we don't offer them any information, they can use the QT vote for any reason and there would be no way to learn anything from it. So much for those arguments about needing information? It's a battle of wits, trying to out-fox the foxes, to the death.

There's no point in it now. I mean if I'm the only one who does it, they'll just ignore me anyway. So, I consider the matter closed.

I don't want to beat a dead horse with all the Mac-voters. My reasoning for not Huey is I generally don't like joining a bandwagon on someone not present to defend himself. Mac was present had ample opportunity to defend himself, Huey wasn't and I had not given him much thought. I'm not going to feel upset over a bandwagonned wolf, but I'm also not going to throw a self-pity party that I was wrong not to join it. I move on to the next day.

I am definitely suspicious of the Mac-voters who have come out insisting to look at wolf-on-wolf voters, or the possibility that Mac is also a wolf. (Sally and Inzil). That would be something if the top 2 lynch possibilities were both wolves. Taking into account what I've seen so far from the pack, I find that unlikely Mac-wolf planned at night to go suicidal.

I have to get going for the next several hours. I was hoping to take a good look at the non Mac/Huey voters, but I won't have time until I'm back around 3 hours before DL. I may be able to sneak some time in to keep up on the activity.

Do you start seeing the difference now? I didn't focus on the "throw away" voters in Day 1 because a cobbler was lynched and there were votes that struck me as more productive to spend my time with. Yesterday a wolf was lynched, and the "throw away" voters look more suspicious than the people who voted Huey.

Of those, the one that stood out to me, but I'll take a look at all of them, was Lhuna's. I still don't know why she voted Lommy. Unless I missed it there was almost no reasoning there. Granted, her time zone avoids her from being present when the most activity happens, but that looks like a 2nd throw away vote. Her first was her own, Day 1 fine. I completely missed Huey's "slip" and Lhuna's response. If someone can be so kind to point me in the right direction to that.

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Kath this is all very interesting. Did you see my post #680? We seem to be on similar trains of thought.

I was looking more at things from yesterDay as I wanted to be clear on it so I'm afraid I skimmed past it at the time. But looking at it now yes I can see we have ended up with the same ideas about Eonwe.

[Macalaure]

Eonwe is ready to lynch half the village in a pinch. How comforting.

Originally Posted by Lommie

Like, my gut feeling is a lot better, but my logic still cannot fathom why innocent Mac would have acted the way he did yesterDay.

Logic, schmogic.

Originally Posted by Legate

I wasn't really worried about Zil until he said this.

Reminds me a bit of me late yesterDay, as some said, an innocent who's aware the village is out to get him, but you know you've dug your own hole and you're kind of accepting it. If I squint and tilt my head, I can see an innocent Inzil, but the hard evidence is against him. Right now, I'd prefer Sally and Greeny to him, though.

Speaking of which, I'm a little saddened by the scant amount of suspicion Greenie is getting. I'm going to put an analysis together, trying my best to approach it with a fresh mind.

[Macalaure]

There isn't much in her first few posts, aside from some general musing. I pointed out her defense of Huin in #135 before. Knowing he was evil and I am not, I cannot see this as not suspicious. Right after that, she casts some suspicious light on him and Lommy. In her big list in #164 she keeps the spotlight on Lommy, but gets fluffy on Huin:

Originally Posted by Greeny

Huinesoron – Doesn’t follow the herd and brings up points others haven’t. Suspected Lommy, defended Mac. I get a good vibe so far, though worth keeping an eye on.

Later she talks some about the things surrounding Gala and looked at Kitanna and found her mostly innocent. All good and well. In #206 she turns on me and then shortly after votes for me.

Originally Posted by Greeney

Maybe flimsy, but that post (#196) where he says he doesn't know who to vote for, lists a few people he feels good about, comes up with a decent argument against Brinniel and finishes with calling an earlier post by her "wolfie", is the single most suspicious thing I've seen toDay.

I'm biased here, obviously, but I really don't think my post had the merit of "the single most suspicious thing". Also, "the single most suspicious thing" clashes quite a bit with "maybe flimsy". If what I did was so suspicious, then why call the suspicion flimsy in the same sentence??


Starts Day2 with solid contributions, then goes off on me and Brinn. A key point in her suspicion is that she's under the assumption that we both mean the wolves killed Rikae only to frame one of us. This is fair enough, as at this point neither of us explicitly stated that that's not the only thing to it, I think.

The way she focuses as we get closer to the deadline worries me. Yes, innocents can make up their mind stubbornly and single-mindedly push for their candidates once it gets to voting, but the vibe I get is just sinister. She repeats the same things without taking in anything new. Greenie and Lommy made very similar cases against me, put compare Greenie's handling of it to Lommy's. Then again, I do understand how lack of time can make one act like this. Unfortunately, that's what lack of time does to wolves, too.

Her vote comes when the rising suspicion against Huin was in the air, but the first vote had not been cast yet, so her vote by itself is not too problematic.


ToDay she admits to her tunnel-vision. Fair enough. She backs off of me and Brinn, largely because she over-committed before. I could see both an innocent or a wolf doing this.

Originally Posted by Greenie

later lists Huin under “very bad” along with me, but this is after he had already voted so couldn’t act on it.

Incorrect. This is by the time I got to make that list. I turned on him right after he made his post linking me and Inzil. He made several posts, acknowledging my suspicion in one, between that and his vote.

Greenie's main suspects in her list (outside of Brinn and me) are Sally and Inzil, who are pretty much universally suspected by everyone, it seems, so that's a fairly safe thing to do.

The rest of her posts toDay all seem fair and helpful, though the explanation of her vote to Legate seems a bit wolfish. Wolves pre-think how their votes can be made to sound all reasonable before the Day starts, and I get a bit of that vibe there.


In conclusion, much of my suspicion of her is based on her behavior towards me, so at any rate I understand why others wouldn't be picking up the same vibe. She's not as glaringly evil as I thought, but she still gives me major heebie-jeebies.


(Boro has been odd all game, and if nothing else, his vote alone warrants a closer look, so that's where I'm headed next.)

[THE Ka]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Both of you please explain what you're referring to (ie what aspect of "what happened with Mac yesterDay" are you referring to - quite a lot happened with Mac yesterday. )

Zil's playful '-if I'm the main topic of conversation' quip reminded me of what we saw of Mac repeatedly yesterDay referring to himself as being the main target of suspicion based on bias from Rikae's bait post and then trying to jokingly/nervously skirt from it. Then we see Sally do similarly toDay, but to most if not all of her interactions with suspicion from other players.
I know Sally has acted this way in the past, but I haven't seen this from Zil over the past two Days at all. Not typical of their responses, so it seemed as if they were trying to remind and stoke suspicion and I didn't understand why.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

2. Does Hui's 3rd vote for Mac point to his (Mac's) innocence?

A valid thought to consider.

Legate votes Hui - first vote

(Mac posts twice during this time span of 13 minutes between Legate and Hui's individual posts - reading over Hui's posts while he read his raises his blood pressure and a final thoughts list with Hui in danger)

Hui votes Mac - Third vote

In their vote-post, we get that they are aware of scrutiny based upon them flip-flopping, generalizations, etc. Acceptance of scrutiny and a promise to follow up toMorrow to respond to accusations.

They conclude with this:

Originally Posted by Hui

Checking for cross-posts... okay, I got a vote, and I'm bad for Mac's blood pressure, but ultimately I don't see anything to change my stated intention (specifically including, nothing in Mac's post (last second edit: posts)

Tone wise, it comes across that Hui was aware that suspicion against him was beginning to roll, but they choose to try and play calm and collected to see how it goes (almost like an insurance plan in case it doesn't and Hui assumes when players wonder why the next Day, they'll have a fairly safe leg to stand on).

Hui's closing words sound like a soft defense, but ultimately non-committal. He won't bite back, doesn't want to appear indignant or that his Mac vote is out of spite towards Mac's frustration with him. Yet, being Mac's 3rd vote, it's pretty safe in the line up and does come across as exactly orchestrated to be out of spite.

If Hui was a more experienced wolf, I'd begin to wonder why they joined a forming bandwagon at a fairly safe point with that tone in their post, but looking back I don't see it being one out of experience more of they knew they were caught and based on their previous statements and 'hunches' Mac was the only vote they had to appear somewhat expected and possibly nudge the Macwagon if they survived that day.

Does it absolutely point at Mac's innocence? Not entirely, Hui could still be going in step as the back-up plan if others weren't working out. It does however point that Hui was playing rather typical to his 'hedging all bets' in previous posts and was tone-wise more unsure of themselves. No one wants to be voted off, even if they're a wolf and the reluctance shows.

[Inziladun]

Mac is still looking better to me. Maybe it's because they seem to understand where I was coming from earlier.

Lommy is worrying. Despite having voted the same was I did yesterDay (granted, with different timing) they seem to be ready to climb on a wagon against me.
Coupled with the non-committal "suspicion" from Huey against them, it merits consideration.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Greenie's main suspects in her list (outside of Brinn and me) are Sally and Inzil, who are pretty much universally suspected by everyone, it seems, so that's a fairly safe thing to do.

The thing that struck me as weird was that Greenie put Sally and Zil as her top suspects, but didn't include Boro in that group - she put him two groups up, suspicion-wise, saying:

Boro - oscillating between weird Boro and normal Boro in this game. The glimpses of normal Boro I have seen have been mostly very reassuring to me, but his yesterDay's vote makes me more wary of him again.

Now obviously you can trust or suspect people for different reasons, you don't have to lump people together just because they voted similarly, but I do think it's eyebrow-raising to suspect two people for doing something but not really suspect the third person to do that same thing. She mentions that the vote makes her 'wary', but doesn't really suspect him, which could be soft wolf-on-wolf. I could see them being a wolf pair - if one of them ends up being guilty, I would definitely want to look at the other, as well.

Note: Quoted post is Lommy's, NOT Greenie's.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

If the wolves thought Kit was the Ranger from her disbelief of G55 they'd just kill her. No reason to bring it up in thread. I don't find Inzil suspicious for that - it's a Cobbler move, but we've already dealt with that problem.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm very likely going to vote a Mac voter today. Is it likely Huin was bussed? Sure. But by how many wolves? I flat refuse to believe Huin was hung completely out to dry with not a single ally attempting to save him with a vote for Mac.

[Thinlómien]

Lottie, you're talking about Greenie and quoting my suspicion list. No wonder it's inconsistent.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Sally springs to mind immediately. Her attitude of "you're wrong but fair enough" strikes me as... I dunno, "hail fellow well met?" Too easy.

Lommy is back on my radar for reasons unrelated to her vote - I don't like her classification of me during QT yesterday as "not sticking my neck out" when in fact up until the Eonwe vote, second to last, I was making my vote more and more important by not using it, with the vote as tied as it was. Feels like intentional misrepresentation.

Eonwe would be a cold wolf indeed to put the final nail in Huin's coffin when he could have done the same to Mac, although it's worth a look to see if he could have plausibly done so with regard to his previous suspicions. Not off my radar completely, but I have no interest in going there today.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Lottie, you're talking about Greenie and quoting my suspicion list. No wonder it's inconsistent.

Whoooops! I could have sworn I saw a list from Greenie, but then, I haven't had coffee yet this morning... I'm going to add a note to my previous post mentioning that it was actually Lommy's list so I don't try to quote myself later and get mixed up.

[THE Ka]

Originally Posted by Boro88

In general the more information the better, even if that information is attractive bait. If we don't offer them any information, they can use the QT vote for any reason and there would be no way to learn anything from it.

Wolves could have thought the same thing though, whether we sit on our hands or not. If we 'offer' them a bulk of information they can still decide to throw out a vote that goes against any conclusive reasoning we've made for the sake of just chaos.
I just don't see us gleaning any major pearls of wisdom by waiting for the QT vote.

Are you trying to suggest that we go the 'fake-vote' route, throw a lot of information around our choices early on when their DL comes and then at DL vote completely different as some 'gotcha'?
A reminder that who started the fake-vote thing is sitting in the QT and is aware of it.

If so, then my hat's off to you for playing rather in character to your namesake by suggesting we try to use their tools against them.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Your own vote for Hui cross-posted, I think, with mine. If Eonwe and I (and possibly Lottie) are slightly suspicious Hui voters in your mind, what about your vote?

Well, I know I'm innocent, so I can't say that my own vote is suspicious. I had also been wary of Hui throughout the Day as I wondered if his strong defense of me on Day 1 was a wolf trying to appear in a better light should I be lynched.

Combined with timing, I thought hiding behind Kit for your reason to vote him could possibly be wolf-on-wolf. I think Eonwe's vote could be more likely wolf-on-wolf - he put the nail in the coffin, but if he had voted Mac instead, his vote would look very suspicious indeed should Mac be innocent and Hui later revealed as a wolf.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Lommy is worrying. Despite having voted the same was I did yesterDay (granted, with different timing) they seem to be ready to climb on a wagon against me.
Coupled with the non-committal "suspicion" from Huey against them, it merits consideration.

"You don't get to suspect me if you voted the same not-the-known-wolf as I did yesterDay"? Let's face it, your vote could have been an attempt to save Huin, mine wasn't. That (plus your conviction of getting lynched) is why I suspect you.

But if it comforts you, I still suspect Sally more and I'm not sure two wolves would have done the same fishy packmate-saving move with similarly incriminating timing.

So just as a statement: I'd prefer to lynch Sally toDay because the evidence against her is pretty overwhelming, but I'm not opposed to Zil or Mac.

Originally Posted by Shasta

I'm very likely going to vote a Mac voter today. Is it likely Huin was bussed? Sure. But by how many wolves? I flat refuse to believe Huin was hung completely out to dry with not a single ally attempting to save him with a vote for Mac.

Hear, hear. I don't understand why this isn't a more universal sentiment. Is it because the wolves are not feeling it?

Originally Posted by Lottie

Whoooops! I could have sworn I saw a list from Greenie,

Here: #628 and for reasonings #621.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

"You don't get to suspect me if you voted the same not-the-known-wolf as I did yesterDay"? Let's face it, your vote could have been an attempt to save Huin, mine wasn't. That (plus your conviction of getting lynched) is why I suspect you.

But if it comforts you, I still suspect Sally more and I'm not sure two wolves would have done the same fishy packmate-saving move with similarly incriminating timing.

So just as a statement: I'd prefer to lynch Sally toDay because the evidence against her is pretty overwhelming, but I'm not opposed to Zil or Mac.

Hear, hear. I don't understand why this isn't a more universal sentiment. Is it because the wolves are not feeling it?

Here: #628 and for reasonings #621.

Lommy, stop sounding sensible after I just figured out why you were pinging me, thanks. :P

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Here: #628 and for reasonings #621.

Thanks! I somehow got that one and your list all mixed up. I've taken a look at both, and you both do suspect Sally and Zil more than Boro, but I think it caught my attention more because I noticed it a couple of times without realizing it was different people saying it. Still something to take a look at if Boro ends up being an Infector, but less significant, since I don't know that two wolves would both decide to try to soften the suspicion on Boro in the same way.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Back, a few remarks...

I liked Kath's post (#685) where she analysed the whole "let's talk about Kit" stuff yesterDay, and kinda find myself agreeing with most of the stuff she says there. It makes me think - was it that there was a Zilwolf (or others, but him being the first starter) desperate because they'd spared Kit on the hope that it will cause a debate in the village, and it didn't, so he had to start it himself?

Also agree that Lhuna looks worse in that discussion and Pitch looks a tiny bit better (but I also have overall a bit better feeling about him. It is true that he DID keep the discussion going). And:

Originally Posted by Kath

Hmm. I suppose Kit had brought it up herself by now so conversation about it was going to happen. Is Pitch saying here that he does think she's telling the truth?

Could you perhaps elaborate, Pitch, what were you thinking?

Otherwise, Boro's posting continues to puzzle me.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I don't pass up an opportunity to bluff wolves. We know the QT vote cannot be trusted. So I want to see what name they put out there when given what they think I, and the collective, might do. If the last 2 DLs prove anything it's anything can happen in the final hour. I want to try to force the hands of the evil QT vote.

That's just a really weird reasoning to me, but it can hardly be argued with as suspicious if it's genuine - however, if not, then it was an attempt to communicate with the QT. Anyways, that can't be decided now, but my previously raised eyebrow remains raised.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

My reasoning for not Huey is I generally don't like joining a bandwagon on someone not present to defend himself. Mac was present had ample opportunity to defend himself, Huey wasn't and I had not given him much thought. I'm not going to feel upset over a bandwagonned wolf, but I'm also not going to throw a self-pity party that I was wrong not to join it. I move on to the next day.

Horrible excuses. I mean yes, I see the sentiment, but... Huey had been around during the Day, and there were enough posts. A quiet player might make two posts per Day. Would you hesitate to lynch them? It's excuses.

On another note, I am glad that someone also looked at Greenie, among other things. She is often a very good Wolf who can well slide under the radar. I think Mac brought up two good points here:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Greenie's main suspects in her list (outside of Brinn and me) are Sally and Inzil, who are pretty much universally suspected by everyone, it seems, so that's a fairly safe thing to do.

The rest of her posts toDay all seem fair and helpful, though the explanation of her vote to Legate seems a bit wolfish. Wolves pre-think how their votes can be made to sound all reasonable before the Day starts, and I get a bit of that vibe there.

That's what I thought too. Lots of Greenie's posts have been "safe" that way.

There are a couple of new posts that I haven't finished reading by the time I'm posting this, but I wanted to get this out of the way and again not create an infinite scroll. I'll see if there's anything I would like to remark on. (I saw Shasta making some generally good points, just on the first glance.)

[Brinniel]

A look at Lhuna:

On Day 1, she self-votes which doesn't point innocence or guilt. Either way, I'm not a fan of it because it avoids tracing. This is where she also points out Hui's slip, in which I'd like to echo Lommy and Greenie's comments from toDay:

Originally Posted by Greenie

Hm. I find Lhuna somewhat concerning so this is a definite possibility - in a way, a fellow wolf would be more sensitive to noticing wolf slips or thinking them obviously noticeable to everyone given that she'd know it was a slip.

...because I completely agree.

In the same post she writes:

Originally Posted by Lhuna

Brinn - just enough input to be visible, but feels careful. Noncommittal. Slippery.

Zil - if he's a wolf, he'll just hide under a cover of making sense.

Kitanna - jumpy, but maybe just an anxious ordo

Mac - scary. Yep, despite having only one post (I think) so far.

Boro - I don't know, I just don't trust him. And with 59 games under his belt, he seems like he's capable of unfathomable depths of deceit.

It was still early in the Day, but still she seems to draw up some suspicion without committing to it.

Day 2: She replies to Inzil's comment on Kit with

Originally Posted by Lhuna

Ditto. I'm kind of wondering how she's still alive. My reasoning goes round in circles but hovers more over somewhere unsettling.

I believe some others have mentioned that her involvement in this discussion is worrisome and I concur. Her second sentence seems like she's setting Kit up for suspicion, which could be the reason why the wolves risked not killing her the previous Night. After Kit says she knew G55 was lying, she continues to push:

Originally Posted by Lhuna

How? As an ordo your certainty can only be asymptotic to 100% AT BEST. But I didn't think you would be so careless? flippant? bold? as to post that if you 100% k3new for sure, if you get my meaning. Hence my reasoning in circles.

Edit: Or as a wolf, for that matter

Response to Hui:

Originally Posted by Lhuna

Not so much pressing her for information as loudly wondering how she's alive and if she has anything to say about it.

Her next comment on the matter:

Originally Posted by Lhuna

My thinking was more along the lines of she might either know who the Ranger is, or be unable to commit suicide at Night. But I agree with moving on for now.

But if Kit knew who the ranger was that could indicate that she's the seer...so why bring it up?

In post #394, she decides to focus on analyzing the G55 voters since it was still technically a vote for an innocent. In summary:
Kath: Finds her vote fishy since she didn't say much about G55 until the last couple posts.
Inzil: Calls his vote suspiciously bandwagonny.
Lottie: Leaning innocent for sincerity.
Lommy: Says of her:

Originally Posted by Lhuna

Said "Quite a bold statement for Day1 and pretty much out of nowhere??" to Lottie over something the latter had said a couple of times throughout the Day. Then her posts at the end of yesterDay. Prefaced her vote with "let's make this interesting."

Then proceeds to point out Lommy's posts after the fake ranger reveal. Calls her "Wicked. Tricksy. False."
Hui: Says

Originally Posted by Lhuna

If he voted Pitch as he preferred, he would have nearly contributed to a three-way tie, although I'm not sure if anyone else (other than Lottie, who at that point had already voted) would also vote for Pitch. Huin-Brinn wolf pair? Can it be that blatant?

Seems inconclusive about him.
Brinn: Finds my vote reasonable being self-preservation, but my behavior suspicious.

In post #425, she again questions my Day1 behavior and finds Eonwe somewhat suspicious for his Day 1 vote and current posting. Says she might vote Brinn, Lommy, or to a lesser extent, Mac (for his strange behavior, but she's not convinced it's wolfish). She ends up voting Lommy and adds this comment:

Originally Posted by Lhuna

Parting shot: Friendly reminder, a bandwagon does not start with the first vote.

ToDay she noted my response and says she stands corrected, but it doesn't remove the uneasiness I have from it. Her vote for Lommy feels weak - I don't think there's strong reasoning behind it.

Okay, I had some concerns about Lhuna's posts from yesterDay, and after really reviewing them, I do find her suspicious. For her involvement in the ranger discussion, the way she encouraged suspicion against me in a subtle way, her vote yesterDay, and her bringing up Hui's slip.

--

Okay, I was considering looking at Kath toDay, but I'm running short on time for another long analysis. And I'm actually feeling okay about her for now because I agree with several of her points in post #685.

[satansaloser2005]

Off to run some errands, but I wanted to drop in to say I am here and mostly awake.

Also, lynching me would either be a bad idea or a Very Bad Idea, depending on how my suspicions play out. Either way, you're not lynching a wolf, so maybe look elsewhere? Just saying.

Back in a bit, hopefully with more to say!

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

It makes me think - was it that there was a Zilwolf (or others, but him being the first starter) desperate because they'd spared Kit on the hope that it will cause a debate in the village, and it didn't, so he had to start it himself?

That was my thought yesterDay.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Could you perhaps elaborate, Pitch, what were you thinking?

At that point I was still struggling to make heads or tails of the situation. I was quite baffled to see Kit alive in the Morning after her outburst to G55, so I wondered whether she could possibly be a wolf preparing a fake reveal (but why would she, at this early point?). When I asked this question I was mostly ready to believe her but also trying to see if, on the off-chance she was fake, I could provoke a slip (like, I dunno, claiming she had protected herself when the rules say she can't, something like that).

I still find it hard to believe that none of the five wolves added up 1+1 about Kit in N2 - I've got to give this to Zil and disagree with Shasta here. I mean, but for Hui and deceased Urwen all in this village are WW veterans, so whoever the wolves are, they would know to look for this kind of thing. So I keep asking myself, why was killing Rikae so important that they'd let a probable Ranger live?

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Mac

I'm biased here, obviously, but I really don't think my post had the merit of "the single most suspicious thing". Also, "the single most suspicious thing" clashes quite a bit with "maybe flimsy". If what I did was so suspicious, then why call the suspicion flimsy in the same sentence??

You’re forgetting it was Day 1. I don’t know about you, but at least for me, it’s entirely possible for a lead to be relatively flimsy but still the single most suspicious thing you see during Day 1.

Originally Posted by Mac

Incorrect. This is by the time I got to make that list. I turned on him right after he made his post linking me and Inzil. He made several posts, acknowledging my suspicion in one, between that and his vote.

If I understand you right, and remember right, I think this is down to me not writing clearly – the “he” in that quote referred to you, not Huin. As in, your suspicion of Huin came after you had already voted for Lommy so you couldn’t act on it whether you’d have wanted to or not. (Please poke me again if that’s wrong too though!)

Originally Posted by Legate

That's what I thought too. Lots of Greenie's posts have been "safe" that way.

What can I say? Sally and Inzil both cast votes that look like they could have been motivated by trying to save Huin, both bring this up themselves in a fairly shifty way, and neither of their interactions with Huin contradicts a read of them as fellow wolves. Sally didn’t interact with Huin at all and has played generally safe and uncontroversial, while Inzil brought up an obvious Ranger slip, and was suspected by Huin on both days in a way that would just pass for safe wolf-on-wolf. I’d say both have fairly strong cases against them, so I’m not surprised if they are “pretty much universally suspected”.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Whoooops! I could have sworn I saw a list from Greenie, but then, I haven't had coffee yet this morning... I'm going to add a note to my previous post mentioning that it was actually Lommy's list so I don't try to quote myself later and get mixed up.

The best part about this was, I sat there reading and rereading that quote trying to figure out when I wrote it. Like, I didn't immediately realise I hadn't. Should I be worried?

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Rikae

So, just putting this here because I think this could be important later. This Brinn-wagon everyone's talking about is two votes at this point, mine and Pitch's.

And the people who expressed concern about it are Huey, Lottie and Inzil, in that order (let me know if I missed someone).

Now, I found Pitch suspicious from the beginning, although just for vibes really, and Brinn could have started looking like a convenient vote. On the other hand, three people pushing back on a wagon for coming out of nowhere after two reasoned votes (by day 1 standards) is odd, too, especially if Brinn turns out wolfish or the trolley is redirected toward an innocent. Lottie's and Inzil's positions in the anti-Brinnwagon-wagon are, that is - Huey's is pretty bold.

Edit: X'd with everything since Shasta #233

It can't be as simple as a pack of Hui + Brinn + Zil + Lottie + X, can it? But seriously, since we already know Hui was a wolf, if one or more of the other people Rikae mentions here are his packmates this post alone could explain the wolves' eagerness to off them without the need of assuming a plan to frame Mac or anybody.

And if I'm right with this, the pack would also have preferred us to discuss the lack of a Kit-kill yesterDay rather than alternative reasons for the Rikae-kill beyond their suspicions of Mac and Brinn.

[Loslote]

It's so quiet today. Like, we are three hours away from the deadline on a weekend, and there just isn't that much going on. I feel like a lot of the wolves might be trying to keep a bit of a low profile toDay - there's enough consensus that they can probably get away with just focusing on the obvious, or maybe try to mislead a little if they're in trouble or think they can maybe save a packmate. I like seeing Pitch, Brinn, and Legate all talking about non-obvious players. I feel like Kath and Lalaith tried to start up a little sidebar conversation, but people didn't really bite. That also feels more innocent in my eyes. I got a bit of a "staying on safe topics" vibe from Ka, Lommy, and Greenie, but I don't know that I'd say that's a huge red flag, necessarily, since I get the feeling most people in the village are on similar pages, suspicion-wise.

[THE Ka]

[RL] Apologise in advance if this is rushed, at 8:30 this morning we got a call that a family member had passed early in the morning. Given many of the quarantine in place rules for where we live and restricted air travel, we’re at a loss for what to do. My mind isn’t in a great place right now, but I will still finish today. Just may not be as involved the next few days. I have let Nogrod know and I will try not to hinder this game for anyone.[/RL]

If just by repeated mention that it’s now lodged in my mind, I now have a suspicion of Zil. If I’m going to examine Zil I need to admit that I haven’t looked at Sally much at all. Which could be from timing differences and just play style. Regardless, just for this reason I want to examine her more.


Day one vote – late to DL due to RL needs (understandable)

Originally Posted by Sally

Because I can't catch up in time and I'll do anything to save the maybe ranger.

Believes G55’s claim? Kit had just given a massive hint to villagers about her role and thrown a lot of proof onto the G55-cobbler fire.

Zil later gives similar speculation on the claim, even speaks with Kit about it Day 2. Is along with others asked why they keep bringing it up despite the risk.

Originally Posted by Zil

I feel for this poor beaten horse, but one last thing. On the last summa, ask what benefit a wolfly me would get from putting Kit on the spot? I would know she wasn't a wolf. She would probably be the Ranger or Seer. Why not sit back and wait for someone else to bring it up, and get suspected for it (worked splendidly).

Compared to what I’m seeing with Sally, this arguably more truth to Zil’s actions. As others had pointed out, I had even interacted with Zil about their single-mindedness about Kit’s role. Also as I’d stated before yesterday to Lottie, I was baffled why you’d bring it up with such interest. Especially to the one who keeps trying to bring it to the spotlight, if they were a wolf this is an insane level of risk. Casually point it out once? Sure, just to show face and participate. Repeatedly? It’s more believable to me that a worried and over-analytical villager would fall for bringing it up a lot than a wolf who wants to put it into player’s minds but not leave a trail back to themselves.
Zil has proverbially beat us over the head with it and when confronted at least has offered an answer, even if it’s not as in depth as some of us would prefer.

In contrast on the wolfish scale, I’m not seeing this from Sally. It’s a lot of ducking and diving and casual comments that try to show involvement or rehash what others have said (such as post #409 and #538 Day 2), but almost mimic what happened to Mac yesterDay now being done toDay.

Regardless of not really interacting with Hui at all, she places her votes in a way that appear rather calculated to whatever trend in voting is most opportune. In comparison to Zil, you arguably don’t see this.

Originally Posted by Sally

More like I was hoping for the best outcome regardless of the consequences I knew it would have for me. Dun and I are saying the same thing, but I'm being more open about the way it looks. You're being overly paranoid again, big bad Mac.

Rather easy to say and the voting pattern supports this. Doesn’t make me overtly less assured of any innocence than compared to Zil’s replies about his Kit questioning if we’re going on who is more ‘wolfish’.

Thought I’d never admit it given my suspicion of them the last two game Days, but I have similar misgivings as Brinn does in post #647 about Sally’s casual steering away of attention to Mac votes like it was a plan that didn’t work out great and they’d rather everyone doubt it with perhaps other more vocal wolves taking the charge to focus on Hui’s actions and comments.

To be honest if this is the way of the winds blowing between these two, as I wondered in post #662 to Sally and Zil, I’d rather vote for Sally if anything to see how fellow packmates will consolidate. Truth aside, because we have no iron clad proof, Sally at the end of yesterDay and throughout toDay has garnered more open suspicion to me than Zil.

Maybe I’m just more in my feelings today with everything going on, more than I ever like trusting emotion, but Sally in her replies acts almost as if duping delight and that they’re assured safety compared to the suspicion thrown at Zil, Greenie, or others.


++Sally

I’d like more time to go on, but I haven’t had a chance to read any new posts since 9AM my time and the way things are going, I’m not going to be able to catch up in a way that does justice to later arguments. Rather get my vote out than missing DL. See all of you later.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Loslote

It's so quiet today. Like, we are three hours away from the deadline on a weekend, and there just isn't that much going on. I feel like a lot of the wolves might be trying to keep a bit of a low profile toDay - there's enough consensus that they can probably get away with just focusing on the obvious, or maybe try to mislead a little if they're in trouble or think they can maybe save a packmate. I like seeing Pitch, Brinn, and Legate all talking about non-obvious players. I feel like Kath and Lalaith tried to start up a little sidebar conversation, but people didn't really bite. That also feels more innocent in my eyes. I got a bit of a "staying on safe topics" vibe from Ka, Lommy, and Greenie, but I don't know that I'd say that's a huge red flag, necessarily, since I get the feeling most people in the village are on similar pages, suspicion-wise.

For myself, Saturdays are usually quite hectic. I'm back though and will be here until the end. Doing some work on the non-Mac/Huey voters.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

It makes me think - was it that there was a Zilwolf (or others, but him being the first starter) desperate because they'd spared Kit on the hope that it will cause a debate in the village, and it didn't, so he had to start it himself?

Maybe: if you forget the fact that I brought it up within a half hour of the Day's start.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

It can't be as simple as a pack of Hui + Brinn + Zil + Lottie + X, can it? But seriously, since we already know Hui was a wolf, if one or more of the other people Rikae mentions here are his packmates this post alone could explain the wolves' eagerness to off them without the need of assuming a plan to frame Mac or anybody.

For what it's worth, I wouldn't be averse to a Brinn or Lottie vote.

[satansaloser2005]

Back from surprisingly time-consuming errands.

[satansaloser2005]

I enjoy how people are saying, "So if I have to choose between Dun and Sally...."

You realize it's pretty likely neither of us are wolves, right?



My voting pool for toDay:
Lottie (still my bad vibes list, sadly don't have time to do an analysis)
Mac (though I think I may have given myself tunnel vision)
Boro (because I'll never trust him again after the last game and I just remembered this last night )
Ka (for a post I'll quote in a moment)
Steve? (for a post I of course can no longer find, so maybe I'm mistaken)

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Now something today about Eonwe didn't sit right and I went back over his posts. This is what I found.

YesterDay, Eonwe makes two posts drawing attention to the interaction betwen Shasta and Kit the second wondering if they are an infector pair
Then:
Eonwe, 5.23pm yesterDay (my italics)

(NB this was something Lottie had pointed to earlier anyway)
Then
Lalaith 7.22pm yesterDay

(this is the first time I mention Kit at all)

Eonwe toDay re Kit:



So TL;DR Eonwe spends a lot of time yesterDay talking about Kit and Shasta, first as suspicious and then he openly discusses her being a Ranger, two hours before I mention her at all (at a time when KitRanger had been discussed by lots of people) and then toDay finds my comment suspicious for outing Kit.

Really. This does not look good.

I can see where you're coming from with some of this, but a lot of this post is either misleading or untrue.

Here are those first two posts (in full, so they can't be twisted out of context):

Originally Posted by Eönwë

This is a good point!

For reference, here is the vote count (borrowed from Nog's post with the last vote added):

Lhuna -> Lhuna
Rikae -> Brinniel
G55 -> Rikae
Boro -> Pitchwife
Urwen -> G55
Pitchwife -> Brinniel 2
Kath -> G55 2
Shasta -> Pitchwife 2
Kitanna -> Pitchwife 3
Inzil -> G55 3
Lottie -> G55 4
Greenie -> Macalaure
THE Ka -> Brinniel 3
Eönwë -> Urwen
Rune -> Brinniel 4
Lommy -> G55 5
Huines -> G55 6
Legate -> Brinn 5
Macalaure -> Brinn 6
Brinniel -> G55 7
Sally -> Brinniel



One thing that I don't think people have really addressed toDay is that Pitch was seriously on the chopping block yesterDay and then managed to get taken out of the running, and a large part of that was G55 becoming an eligible vote candidate due to Zil and Lottie.

As a side note, come to think of it, Boro writing the above post and not mentioning this specifically when Pitch was the only viable non-Brinn vote-candidate at the time, while also voting for Pitch and not including the full vote-list (and thus leaving others to find out for themselves) could suggest a potential arms-length Boro-Pitch Infector pairing, which is an interesting idea that I'm going to have to look into.

On the other hand, while I'm sure there are wolves hiding in both the late Brinn and G55 votes, I think some of the earlier votes look like they could also be interesting (for example Shasta and Kitanna's Pitch-waggon that temporarily made Pitch the most-voted), but I will need to look at them more closely when I have time.

However, if Brinn does turn out to be a wolf, THE Ka and Legate are potential candidates for treading the (Infector-y) just-risky-enough-to-not-seem-throwaway-but-not-directly-leading-to-packmate-being-quarantined vote line.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Maybe I'm just paranoid and seeing possible wolf-groups everywhere, but after their coordinated votes yesterDay and this post:

I can't help wondering if Shasta and Kitanna aren't an Infector duo being too obvious and just messing with us (though whether this would make Brinn more likely to be an Infector or someone they're trying to frame is up in the air).

In the first post, I mention that those two voting for a third when there were already two with 2 votes each bore more looking at and the next post was based on that.

Then, after sleeping for a night, seeing the next page being full of discussion about Kit, I was thinking about how bad Zil bringing up Kit felt to me (and everyone else seemingly), and decided to look at different people's reactions to the discussion. And Shasta seemed to the clearest case of someone trying to suppress the discussion about the Ranger while also trying to distance Kit from the role/make it seem like a foregone conclusion that Kit was the Ranger.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Now that the Ranger discussion has been brought out into the public, I have to say that this post makes me feel better about Shasta:

I know last time I said that it is possible that they are both wolves being cheeky, but it does seem more likely that he was, at least in that instance, trying to bury this discussion by pointing to Kit's post as something anyone might say. Again, it is possible that they are being very bold wolves, but generally, it seems risky to attach so closely to another wolf especially when you've voted in the same way. So whoever Shasta thinks the Ranger is, I think he is trying to protect them here by trying to suppress this discussion that has just been blown open (luckily not enough for any reveals to occur). Thus doesn't necessarily say anything about Kit's role, or even what Shasta thinks about Kit's role - whether he believes/believed that she is a gifted, ordo, or wolf, discussion of the Ranger is dangerous for the real Ranger.

Specifically, I was moving the discussion from Kit to people's interaction with the conversation, and note that I specifically mentioned that she could still be other roles, which was certainly possible - a number of people toDay have confirmed (or at least claimed) that they didn't think she was really the Ranger.

Also, you should note that (at least as far as I can tell when looking back), I was the one who originally brought up that Shasta looked better for this - Lottie was the one who agreed with me. So that was a false statement.

On the other hand, you posted this:

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Ok I wasn't going to say anything about The Kit Thing but seeing as it's being openly discussed - *glares at certain people* -
Could the people who are still putting Kit in the 'slightly/fairly' suspicious category please explain to me - how would a Kitwolf know G55 was lying about being a Ranger? All a Kitwolf would know was that G55 was not a wolf.

While it may have been obvious to you that Kit was the Ranger, clearly it wasn't a foregone conclusion to others, and therefore it seems reasonable that people (innocent people that is) would either still suspect her, of if they really did believe her, would want to muddy the waters a bit. I still think those who act like everyone should have just accepted that Kit had outed herself are suspicious.


edit: grammar

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by THE Ka

To be honest if this is the way of the winds blowing between these two, as I wondered in post #662 to Sally and Zil, I’d rather vote for Sally if anything to see how fellow packmates will consolidate. Truth aside, because we have no iron clad proof, Sally at the end of yesterDay and throughout toDay has garnered more open suspicion to me than Zil.

Bolding mine. This strikes me hard as another way of saying, "It'll be far easier to lynch Sally than Dun, so I'm going for it."

Assuming my previous post is statistically accurate and Dun and I are both innocent (which I can by no means prove), this would make Ka look very guilty indeed.

That said, Ka has RL going on today (my condolences, darling), so I'm hesitant to throw a vote her way right now for meta reasons.


x'd with Steve

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I enjoy how people are saying, "So if I have to choose between Dun and Sally...."

I would be willing to vote for either of you toDay - just based on the timing of your votes yesterDay, I think you have to consider it - but I would almost rather vote Boro. His vote was very similar, timing wise, to yours, and I have a bad feeling about him in general. Also, I think he has more ties to other players than Sally, and I think Zil has been so suspected for so long that, if he is a wolf, his packmates aren't going to allow themselves to be tied to him, so I think we would learn more from quarantining Boro. Boro would be my first choice, followed closely by Zil, then Sally third.