WW: LXXXIV - Middle Earth in Fifteen Minutes

[A Little Green]

Nog is a bal-rog.

On a slightly more serious note, I really want some sleep now. If there's still no action once I've posted this, I'll have to vote all on my own. How sad.

[A Little Green]

Argh. Bed-time.

++ Eomer

Hunch. G'night.

[Nogrod]

Thinking out aloud now...

If the seer has two dreams of people who are still living, s/he could come forwards and give us two names. Then we'd reward her/him with a lynch. On the next Night we'd have a new seer the wolves couldn't guess at in any way as that person has not acted seerish in any way so far and our ranger could protect one of the two making it possible the wolves miss a kill.

Well, the wolves might counter-reveal (or even take the initiative). How bad would that be? The consequences would be quite big whichever way we'd end up voting. If we lynch the real seer it's a success (we still have a seer and the wolves will not be replenished), but if we lynch the wolf we not only give them the heir but also risk losing the seer as well. The ranger could protect the not-lynched one though, but then the wolves would have a free kill of a known innocent the coming Night... In the longer run the ranger would be able to protect the lving revealed innocent the next Night though.

But we'd not be able to know anything, right?

We must be able to deduct things at some point of the game. So how probable it is on D4 (for example) we don't know who was lynched toDay if we lynch someone with a role? Thus far only ordos have been killed but we are fast running out of ordos and after the heir takes a role we start knowing things.

This makes me crazy.

Because of the false-reveal possibilities and the risks it involves I'm slightly against the seer revealing (and if the seer only has one or no names to give s/he should definitively stay quiet).

You are turning me towards thinking the hunter-lynch would be a good idea... But then again, a wolf might wish to do the false reveal (or take the initiative) here as well. And if we lynch a wolf as a hunter we give them the heir. The only positive thing is that we'd know we have done that.

On a more positive note: if there are two contestants for the hunter-role and we manage to lynch the right one we can lynch the impostor-wolf toMorrow.

Hmm.... (add there the risk of losing a gifted - or just an ordo - and weigh it against the chance of getting another wolf by the hunter) You've come up with a wicked game Shasta!

[Nogrod]

How cynical would it be to try and think who is a plain ordo and try to lynch her/him toDay throwing the ball back to the wolves for the Night hoping they would get one of our gifteds?

Well, I need to decide on that pretty soon as my bedtime is approaching as well.

Where is everyone?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

An Ordo could reveal: we give 'the ball' back to the wolves, letting them possibly (probably, at this stage?) turn the Heir into a gifted, maybe even picking the Hunter who kills one of them (very lucky).

A wolf could bluff and reveal as an Ordo but then we'd at least be down to 3 wolves and no heir - and we'd have all the information required to march on with the game.

[Nogrod]

Let's lynch the heir.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, here I am, I'll just post swiftly remarks to what's been said on the thread, and later maybe something more constructive...

Originally Posted by Loslote

I agree with this scenario - Sally's done the exact same thing before, and anyone who'd seen her do that (including, if I remember correctly, Nessa as well as the usual lot) would recognize that as a genuine offer. So the wolves, not wanting to hit a Gifted, go for the all but confirmed ordo.

Okay, point taken. Well I was counting on the idea of the WWs trying to get the Seer (as that's the one they'd want to get in any case, I believe, Heir or no Heir, it can be dangerous for them): that was a hypothesis I was verifying. The explanation that they just wanted the situation to keep as it is makes a lot of sense, although that means the pack is not very bold, but tries to sort of make the waters still and wait for us to make the first slip. Or, they could be just sportish and merely accepted sally's offer to be lynched for their own (which I find plausible).

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Should we just accept that we have to hunt wolves or should we perhaps think about lynching our Hunter today? It guarantees that the Heir becomes another Hunter, and it takes a shot at killing someone else at the same time. Could be a wolf, could not; but it's the same chance as getting a wolf as our lynching would be, and it gets us the Heir as guaranteed.

Just thinking out loud here; please judge the idea critically.

To dangerous place, this will take us, but of course we cannot prolongate this Heir-stalemate forever. A Hunter killed at Night would be far more benefitial for us, though of course, we are not the masters of the fate in this. I have to think about this...

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Lynching the ranger does the "compensation" (that we get the heir: the role of the gifted we lynch stays in the game) as well without the risk of losing two innocents.

Well what, in such case, would prevent a Wolf from coming to you and saying: "Hi, I'm the Ranger?"

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Like Inzil said, killing the Hunter has the advantage that we can actually tell what role the Heir assumes. If we go with your plan and lynch the Ranger, there's always the possibility we lynch a false Ranger instead and would never be any the wiser. (Though how probable is it that the wolves want to take the risk and have one of them fake-reveal?

Not any less, I'm afraid - if there was ever a game suitable for fake revealing, I guess this is it...

Originally Posted by Nogrod

We will not be any wiser whomever we lynch if that person has a role, but the hunter of course. But lynching the hunter on D2 gives a great probability of losing another innocent - or even a gifted. The hunter would have a 30% chance of getting a wolf against 60% (70%) to kill an innocent, to be exact.

Quoting Han Solo, "Never tell me the odds!" Honestly, I don't see so much in statistics, simply because real life (and WW too) does not really operate like that. Okay, of course in some basic way, but for this case, I think the difference does not really make a difference (? interesting). But anyway, the fact is that there is the risk of the Hunter killing somebody during the Day, the question is not "how many percent" but more like "is it worth it?"

EDIT: x-ed with some Greenie, her vote, few Nogrods, Eomer and such...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

A wolf could bluff and reveal as an Ordo but then we'd at least be down to 3 wolves and no heir - and we'd have all the information required to march on with the game.

Sorry Eomer, but we wouldn't have "all the information required to march on with the game". We wouldn't know if we lynched a wolf or a gifted, and thus the game would be anything but a normal one. Therefore it would be the most important we'd let the wolves kill a gifted first. That happening we'd know the killed was a goodie and has been replaced. From lynches we can't say this or that.

[Nessa Telrunya]

Okay, I'm gathering multiple possibilites for whichever coordinated vote-if any-we'd go for. And these are all assuming that no ordos are jumping in, for whatever reason. Right now, we are 7-1-3

So let's assume we're going for the hunter.

One person comes forward.
A-It's the real hunter, and we kill them. They take someone with them, so we know they were telling the truth, and that, unless they were the Hunter's kill, the heir will join our side. The wolves lose the heir advantage, and make a kill with their regular logic. If the hunter takes a villager with them, it's 6-3. If they take a wolf, it's 7-2

B-Or, for some reason the hunter is scared, and a wolf comes out. We lynch them, no one else dies so we know they faked and are highly possible to be a wolf to look at their posts, and the heir goes to the baddies and they use normal logic. 7-3

Two people come forward..

C-It's a Hunter and a Wolf. We lynch the Hunter, and their kill afterwards confirms it. The other is obviously a wolf, so we have an idea of who to examine/lynch. The heir is our new hunter. The wolves have to use normal logic. If the hunter takes a villager, it's 6-2, if a wolf, it's 7-2.

D-It's a Hunter and a wolf. We lynch the Wolf. There is no other kill, so we know the Hunter didn't die. We know who the real Hunter is, so they either die the next Night(6-3), or we lynch them the next day(either 6-2 or 5-3). The heir goes to the baddies.

E-Two Wolves. We kill one, know it's a wolf, think the other is a hunter, if they don't die in the night, we know they're not, and lynch them toMorrow. (6-2)

I won't go into the specifics if we get three or four coming forward, but we'll know if we lynch the hunter, and that at least one is the real one(in the case of four). To be honest, lynching the ranger won't get us an extra kill OR any sense of security in the role of who we killed. My calculations may be off, but I tried.

And this is all assuming we go for a Hunter reveal.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Sorry Eomer, but we wouldn't have "all the information required to march on with the game". We wouldn't know if we lynched a wolf or a gifted, and thus the game would be anything but a normal one. Therefore it would be the most important we'd let the wolves kill a gifted first. That happening we'd know the killed was a goodie and has been replaced. From lynches we can't say this or that.

But no gifted should come forward and reveal as an Ordo. Only Ordos or wolves would do it, and therefore we'd see the result.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

How cynical would it be to try and think who is a plain ordo and try to lynch her/him toDay throwing the ball back to the wolves for the Night hoping they would get one of our gifteds?

Hey, certainly not that! I say that's really the worst thing we could do. If we do this, and the WWs do this, and we do this, and the WWs do this, then the WWs eventually win. Like, imagine the newspaper headlines: "Village lost by intentionally lynching only ordos!" Honestly!!!

EDIT: x-ed since my last

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Let's be honest: we don't have a clue who could be a wolf. Absolutely no clue. Nothing done so far can allow us useful speculation, given the nature of this game.

That's why we might as well allow the Hunter a free kill; it's as likely to be accurate as any village lynch - perhaps more so as it's uninfluenced by wolves. Let's just get this heir-business over with!

If the Hunter's still around, that is. :/

[Nessa Telrunya]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Let's be honest: we don't have a clue who could be a wolf. Absolutely no clue. Nothing done so far can allow us useful speculation, given the nature of this game.

That's why we might as well allow the Hunter a free kill; it's as likely to be accurate as any village lynch - perhaps more so as it's uninfluenced by wolves. Let's just get this heir-business over with!

If the Hunter's still around, that is. :/

Wait, Nerwen or Sally could have been gifteds, only because of the heir, their roles weren't revealed. Is that possible?

This throws a whole new perspective on things

[Shastanis Althreduin]

This is enjoyable to watch. That is all.

[Nogrod]

Any revelation is probably going to be followed by a counter-reveal - or the wolves could even trigger that themselves. Whatever gifted-role we talk about.

And it would be a mess.

So after all the thinking this evening I'd say no reveals!

Our best bet is to get the heir and end this nonsense.


What kind of player the heir could be? I think s/he'd wish not to get lynched or killed by Night. It is such a great role to play that the one having it would love to see the Day when it takes effect. So the heir would probably be very careful not to make anyone think s/he should be lynched or Night-killed but also visible enough not to be taken as a possible submarine wolf/seer by either side & involved enough not be the "no trace left behind Night-kill"...

A few names spring into my mind immediately: Lommy, Legate, Greenie, maybe Inzil...

EDIT: X'd from my last post onwards

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Our best bet is to get the heir and end this nonsense.

Nog, do you realise one thing, that the Heir does not know their role???

[Nessa Telrunya]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Any revelation is probably going to be followed by a counter-reveal - or the wolves could even trigger that themselves. Whatever gifted-role we talk about.

And it would be a mess.

So after all the thinking this evening I'd say no reveals!

Our best bet is to get the heir and end this nonsense.


What kind of player the heir could be? I think s/he'd wish not to get lynched or killed by Night. It is such a great role to play that the one having it would love to see the Day when it takes effect. So the heir would probably be very careful not to make anyone think s/he should be lynched or Night-killed but also visible enough not to be taken as a possible submarine wolf/seer by either side & involved enough not be the "no trace left behind Night-kill"...

A few names spring into my mind immediately: Lommy, Legate, Greenie, maybe Inzil...

EDIT: X'd from my last post onwards

Wait, I thought the heir doesn't know who they are, and are just told that they're an ordo.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Our best bet is to get the heir and end this nonsense.


What kind of player the heir could be? I think s/he'd wish not to get lynched or killed by Night. It is such a great role to play that the one having it would love to see the Day when it takes effect. So the heir would probably be very careful not to make anyone think s/he should be lynched or Night-killed but also visible enough not to be taken as a possible submarine wolf/seer by either side & involved enough not be the "no trace left behind Night-kill"...

A few names spring into my mind immediately: Lommy, Legate, Greenie, maybe Inzil...

Except for this from The Rules:

The Heir - The Heir is a special role, randomly assigned to an ordo at the beginning of the game. The Heir will not be aware that he or she is the Heir. Regarding the Heir's function - the Heir is nothing more than an ordo until the first non-ordo dies. At that point, the Heir takes on whatever the non-ordo's role was - either becoming a Seer, Ranger, Hunter, or Wolf. In the narration where the Heir's power activates, the role of the deceased player will not be revealed.

The Heir doesn't know they have that role, so how do we possibly find them?

x/d with Legate and Nessa, who bring the same point.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If we need to consider lynching a gifted - which is an option we might face soon enough - I do suggest we go for the ranger (if the ranger is willing to sacrifice her/himself) because s/he is immediately re-installed and the new one can continue in the role.

We gain nothing if we lynch the Ranger. If we lynch the Seer, we gain two names. If we lynch the Hunter, we get a kill that's not complicated by this mess. If we lynch the Ranger, we lose an ordo.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Lynching the ranger does the "compensation" (that we get the heir: the role of the gifted we lynch stays in the game) as well without the risk of losing two innocents.

But we don't know that we got the Heir, not for certain, so it's a moot point. And if you never risk anything...

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

E-Two Wolves. We kill one, know it's a wolf, think the other is a hunter, if they don't die in the night, we know they're not, and lynch them toMorrow. (6-2).

The wolves might not kill the Hunter for fear of being killed. According to this, we'd lynch them anyway, and lynching the Hunter, for the wolves, is safer than Night-killing xem.

I'm all for the Hunter theory.

EDIT: xed since Moddly Dude

[Nessa Telrunya]

Originally Posted by Loslote

We gain nothing if we lynch the Ranger. If we lynch the Seer, we gain two names. If we lynch the Hunter, we get a kill that's not complicated by this mess. If we lynch the Ranger, we lose an ordo.



But we don't know that we got the Heir, not for certain, so it's a moot point. And if you never risk anything...



The wolves might not kill the Hunter for fear of being killed. According to this, we'd lynch them anyway, and lynching the Hunter, for the wolves, is safer than Night-killing xem.

I'm all for the Hunter theory.

The whole thing really depends on how many people reveal if called for. And I doubt a wolf would be the FIRST of two reveals, merely if they end up being the only one to do so.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Nog, do you realise one thing, that the Heir does not know their role???

Oops... No, I didn't think about it. Is it so?

Well that makes the things once again "a bit more complicated".

Originally Posted by Nessa

Wait, Nerwen or Sally could have been gifteds, only because of the heir, their roles weren't revealed. Is that possible?

This throws a whole new perspective on things

I think these are quite plain talking...

Originally Posted by ShastaGod

Nerwen was lynched. She was an ordo.

Originally Posted by ShastaDevil

Sally has been eaten. She was an ordo.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Lottie, you mentioned that Lommy is saying what you were thinking; now you're saying what I'm thinking.

I expect that your focus is correct.

Oh, I forgot about your youtube video for today - going to watch now.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Oh, I forgot about your youtube video for today - going to watch now.

Blocked! It must have been racy indeed to be banned in this country.

[Nogrod]

Lottie, you should bring yourself up to date before you beat a dead horse.

Okay, I see what you suggested now Nessa.

Originally Posted by the Rules

The Heir will not be aware that he or she is the Heir. Regarding the Heir's function - the Heir is nothing more than an ordo until the first non-ordo dies.

So would Shasta tell us if the heir died before any non-ordo died or would the heir just show as an ordo if she was not turned into anything?

His constant remarks on how funny it is to follow this game could suggest the heir is already dead...

[Nessa Telrunya]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Oops... No, I didn't think about it. Is it so?

Well that makes the things once again "a bit more complicated".

I think these are quite plain talking...

My reasoning was that if a gifted is killed, the heir takes over. I thought we don't get a reveal on whoever the heir takes over for, but it would only make sense to call them an ordo. It wouldn't work for Shasta to say "no-role"

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Lottie, you mentioned that Lommy is saying what you were thinking; now you're saying what I'm thinking.

I expect that your focus is correct.

Why thank you...also,

++Lottie

I hope all of you can figure out what that means.

Oh, I forgot about your youtube video for today - going to watch now.

EDIT: xed since the post I quoted

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Lottie, you should bring yourself up to date before you beat a dead horse.

Okay, I see what you suggested now Nessa.
So would Shasta tell us if the heir died before any non-ordo died or would the heir just show as an ordo if she was not turned into anything?

His constant remarks on how funny it is to follow this game could suggest the heir is already dead...

My guess is that the heir will, if need be, miraculously turn out to be the last surviving Ordo.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Why thank you...also,

++Lottie

I hope all of you can figure out what that means.





EDIT: xed since the post I quoted

Ok...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, for now a general list of my impression about people after toDay's posting...

Wilwa - not really so much to go with, but when she is around, at least speaks, does not set off any alarms
Lottie - seems quite thoughtful, also does not really set off any alarms
Boro - okay, his vote today was rather weird, but I am not really going to judge him based on that... I think it'd be nice to see more from him, and possibly our village'd have needed his sort of decisive spirit in matters such as "lynch-or-not-to-lynch-whomever"...
Elronhubbard - became a bit more active at some point, not bad, I think there was something a bit curious about some of her posts, but nothing really "big"
Eomer - looks active to me, possibly with somewhat daring behavior, could be either, but does not really make me think him any highly suspicious
Greenie - seems sort of like Alice in the Wonderland, either confused, or acting it very well. It could be many of the under-the-rader-Greenwolves, but there's no real other evidence for that.
Inzil - contributive, but some of his posts especially earlier toDay made me think of him as if he assumed the role of "Mr.Agreeable" here, which might be a smoothy-Wolfdoing
Nogrod - I don't know what to think of him, on one hand, he seems active, but more strongly, he brings some rather dangerous suggestions which would, in my opinion, benefit only the WWs if being advocated - on the other hand, he is sometimes advocating things which are just confused-seeming (lynching the Heir), which would point more to innocence; but overall I am worried about him probably more than less
Lommy - I don't see anything suspicious about her
Nessa - has some interesting points. For some reason though, I think when reading her posts, I keep mixing her up with LRH (sorry both), I think one "homework" for me is to go through the posts of them both carefully to make a really proper opinion...

That all said, this does not bring me any closer to whom to vote, because... (see the above fifty posts of discussion whether we want to lynch a Hunter or whomever. Neverhteless, the list has its merit anyway...)

EDIT: x-ed with many, hey so what, is something actually happening?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Why thank you...also,

++Lottie

I hope all of you can figure out what that means.

Still at work and only peripherally following things at the moment, but I think I do see where this is going.

++Lottie

x/d with Eomer and Legate

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Loslote

++Lottie

PS: I was totally planning on doing that yesterDay instead of voting for Nerwen or Nessa. Then I couldn't, but still.

EDIT: xed with Legate and Zil

[Thinlómien]

Beep beep beep! Boromir88 is a wolf let's lynch him. Honestly, this is not a joke. He is just false. I admit part of my reason to think him weird is that he is not around as much as normal, but what he says seems weird. He is non-committal and doesn't give me the good solid honest Boro (who might be annoyingly tricksy but who's still always nice) feeling. He just seems off. And no, this is not knee jerk suspicion, although 1) his suspicion seems weird and 2) I'd be tempted to say he's a wolf and anxious to see me go because I have scared him enough by boasting about my infallible bororadar. (Which is not btw infallible but rather good! I tend to figure him out but at times I'm unsure and thenm it can go either way.)

Kind of agreeing with Eomer and Zil though. The problem is, I have to go to sleep soon and I'm not the hunter, so I don't know who to vote. So might be I'll go for Boro.

Originally Posted by Greenie

(Though how probable is it that the wolves want to take the risk and have one of them fake-reveal?)

And what's the risk of it for them? The false revealer may die, but he will be replaced with a newborn wolf, who is harder to detect for the village. I think false reveals are a big reason why we shouldn't lynch the ranger or the seer.

Nog we shouldn't wait to lynch the hunter, if we do it, we should do it toDay. Because otherwise we probably either lose another ordo or lynch a wolf which is nice but creates a new one. And the situation is the same every effing Day unless a gifted is killed at Night, so we'd better get rid of the heir business. Otherwise the wolves just win this because all the ordos die.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Let's lynch the heir.

Haha. Another idea btw - I wonder if everybody seems so half-hearted because they are ordos and they don't know if they are the heir or not so they are thinking they might have to change sides so they don't want to be too helpful...? That'd be stupid imo, but just throwing that out.

Originally Posted by Nessa

Wait, Nerwen or Sally could have been gifteds, only because of the heir, their roles weren't revealed. Is that possible?

No. Everybody else's role is revealed normally except the one's whose role the heir inherits.


edit: xed since Lottie... !!!

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

PS: I was totally planning on doing that yesterDay instead of voting for Nerwen or Nessa. Then I couldn't, but still.

Well, I'm inclined to trust you. If you're a wolf, we'll soon know, if everyone else follows through with this.

x/d with Lommy

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Loslote

++Lottie

I hope all of you can figure out what that means.

It depends on what your working hypotheses about the best course of action for toDay is and thus are you

a) an ordo willing to throw the ball back to the wolves
b) a gifted willing to get lynched as to secure us the heir
c) a wolf willing to give the impression of either a or b to secure the heir to the dark side

The fact that you do it that way more or less cancels the options a and b to me.

And if the heir is already dead as seems to be possible we probably should lynch you Lottie. And heh, I would have been right yesterDay!


EDIT: X'd since Eomer

[Nessa Telrunya]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

.

No. Everybody else's role is revealed normally except the one's whose role the heir inherits.


edit: xed since Lottie... !!!

Well, I figured if one of them had been a gifted and the heir had taken over, wouldn't they just be revealed as an ordo?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Loslote

PS: I was totally planning on doing that yesterDay instead of voting for Nerwen or Nessa. Then I couldn't, but still.

EDIT: xed with Legate and Zil

It just showed up, by the way. You made a good choice!

Legate's list is interesting me now, amidst all the Loslote-excitement. Something seems a bit off there; will try to put my finger on it.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

It depends on what your working hypotheses about the best course of action for toDay is

Originally Posted by Loslote

I'm all for the Hunter theory.

Answer your question?

EDIT: xed since Nog

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nessa

Well, I figured if one of them had been a gifted and the heir had taken over, wouldn't they just be revealed as an ordo?

Aiee! I just thought Shasta would say something like "the heir took over their role". Dear Mr Mod, care to clarify?

Probably voting Lottie today.


edit: xed with the two last ones

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

My reasoning was that if a gifted is killed, the heir takes over. I thought we don't get a reveal on whoever the heir takes over for, but it would only make sense to call them an ordo. It wouldn't work for Shasta to say "no-role"

I hope not - I have imagine it the way that that's how he does it, simply writing "no-role", indeed, or something like that. I mean, you will know that the Heir is "activated", but you don't know what exactly happened...

Originally Posted by Loslote

Why thank you...also,

++Lottie

I hope all of you can figure out what that means.

Brilliant, well, as good lead as any, at least something is happening. I just hope it's not the case of what Nessa said (quote above) - lynching our Gifted when we in fact don't want to would be really incredible stupidity.

In any case, as it was said, when lynching the Hunter, we will know for sure if you are not bluffing, and also if nothing else, we move on, so... well, fine. If so, for that matter, should we "vote" whom we'd like to see Hunted, or something like that? If even just for the record...

EDIT: x-ed more or less since my last

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Legate

If so, for that matter, should we "vote" whom we'd like to see Hunted, or something like that? If even just for the record...

Good idea. let's do that.