Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[Boromir88]

For all the roles see here.

I just realized I've not stated the winning conditions for all parties, so I will do so here and then add it on to the first post in the Admin Thread.

Wolves: if the Barrow-wight is still alive, the wolves win if the number of innocents is 1 less than their own. If the Barrow-wight is gone, the wolves win if the number of innocents is equal (or less) than their own.

The innocents win if they eliminate all evils from their town (wolves and Barrow-wight) - this includes Tom Bombadil.

The Barrow-wight wants everyone dead and wins if its the last thing standing.
_________

Put a ++ in front of the person you're voting for and bold it...

++Boro

DL is 6pm EST (11pm GMT). All votes with the time of :00 will be counted, anything :01 or later not.

There are no double-lynches all ties will be determined by a coinflip. If it's a 3-way or more tie, I pull a name from a hat.

There are no clues to anyone's roles in the narrations.

The narrations will make it clear on what events took place during the night.
_________

Fea (honorary co-mod)

PLAYER-LIST
Agan
Eomer
Formendacil
Glirdan
Greenie
Inziladun
Kath
Loslote
Nerwen
Nogrod
Pitchwife
Sally
Shasta
The Elf-Warrior
Volo
Wilwa

No posting. Night 1 narration to follow.

[Boromir88]

A crowd of townspeople, from Bree, had gathered inside the Prancing Pony. Business had been dying ever since the wolf howls started, and rumors of the rangers leaving entered the typical inn chatter. There had also been several strangers passing through these days, unscrupulous folk who just dont look or feel Mannish. Most of the outsiders wind up leaving soon enough, and the Bree folk weren't distraught by their leaving. However, a few strangers have stayed around longer, and they look like trouble. Most Bree people just lock themselves inside nowadays, hoping no trouble would find them.

On this gloomy and haunting night, the Prancing Pony was more busy than it had been in months. Although you newcomers wouldn't be able to tell this was a "busy" night of late. There was no lively music and the overall atmosphere was dead. Folk mostly sat by themselves or huddled in a small group, talking in whispers around a table.

The door creaked open and two more strangers walked into the Inn. A pretty and mysterious looking dark-haired woman, followed by a tall, slender fair skinned man. If the inn was quiet before the strangers walked in, it was dead now, besides the one man hustling from table to table attending the patrons of his Inn. The woman, of all things, had really short hair, too short that's natural for a lady to have. The man looked too well kept, almost like a pampered Elf. These two wreaked of stranger.

"Good evening masters. I'm Barliman Butterbur, the owner of this establishment. Most call me Barley or just Butterbur. What can I do for you? If you're seeking accomadations, we've got more than enough rooms available."

"Yes, we'll take two rooms" said the man. "We're heading south. It's getting far too chilly and dark outside, we'd just need a place to stay for the night."

"Right this way then masters. I'll take you up and show you to your rooms. If you need anything to eat or drink, just come back down and find me. It shouldn't be that hard to do with the way business has been lately."

Barley led the strangers through the common room and everyone looked at them with suspicious caution. One man stood up and shouted "Barley! Why are you giving rooms to these folk! I haven't seen their faces in Bree before. These are dark times, we can't just let strangers come in and stay in our homes!"

"When last I looked, this was my home, not yours." retorted Barley. When the three got upstairs and Butterbur showed the strangers their rooms he said, "Don't mind our gate-keeper, Harry downstairs. He means well. He's just scared. We all are..." Butterbur ended. He attempted a smile to relieve the awkwardness but just said "-erm, well I've got business waiting downstairs." and left without another word.

The two strangers looked at eachother for a moment, trying to figure out what all that was about and why the Inkeep was clearly troubled by something unspeakable. But instead just left for their rooms to sleep for the night.

It is Night 1. No posting yet. (15 minutes late, yes yes...sorry). Wolves talk. Seer give me a name to dream.

[Boromir88]

A crazy storm knocked out my power and it came back about 10 minutes ago. I won't have time to finish the narration right now.

So, Fea is dead from wolf bites and me...I am in a stone cold stupor.

It is now Day 1. Wolves no more private chatter. Everyone...get on with it! Narration up later.

LIVING
Agan
Eomer
Formendacil
Glirdan
Greenie
Inziladun
Kath
Loslote
Nerwen
Nogrod
Pitchwife
Sally
Shasta
The Elf-Warrior
Volo
Wilwa

DEAD
Boro (Mod)- knocked out stone-cold
Fea (honorary co-mod)- nommed by wolfies

[Inziladun]

An hour and a half into it and I'm the first one to post? That pretty much means everyone is tied at #1 in my "suspicious" category.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

An hour and a half into it and I'm the first one to post? That pretty much means everyone is tied at #1 in my "suspicious" category.

Or that I've passed my cold to everyone and no one feels up to posting.

*snuggles everyone, offers blankets*

[The Elf-warrior]

All I know is we can't all be wolves.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

All I know is we can't all be wolves.

We could, technically. After all, there are three wolves, and three posters....

....

....

Probably not the best argument for me to jump onto, is it?


ETA: A note that I may not be back tonight. Seriously, I feel nasty. I need a nap. I'd make a separate post but I'm dangerously close to 4,000 so I want to be careful, etc. Tomorrow will be busy so I may not vote toDay, though I'm hoping that won't be happening. Just an fyi. :/

[The Elf-warrior]

Actually, I meant we as in all the villagers, but I do know I'm not a wolf, so the statement is correct, even if you two are wolves.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

We could, technically. After all, there are three wolves, and three posters....

Of course we could, statistically unlikely though it is.

Shall we go ahead and have it out now that suspected Cobblers should be lynched in the absence of lupine targets? One Cobbler can be a decisive factor in favour of the wolves (as a recent event proved ), so two are worse, especially when one of them has the power to locate the other Cobbler or the wolves by Night.

x/d with TEW

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Probably not the best argument for me to jump onto, is it?

Why ever not?

Anyway, I'm here, so the fun can start.

...

So the fun can start.

...

C'mon, guys, fun. Let's go, let's go.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

C'mon, guys, fun. Let's go, let's go.

Where are we going, Lottiepop?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Where are we going, Lottiepop?

Along this valley track.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Along this valley track.

Right, then. I'll bring along my ice lolly. 7-Up flavoured!

[Inziladun]

Hmm. Tornado sirens are not a good thing. Time to check the weather.

Who's suspicious, anyway?

Sally for having a cold?

TEW for declaring his innocence early?

Lottie for being her plucky, lovable self?

Me for making a list?

[Loslote]

Note: the contents of the poem I just referred to in no way have any bearing whatsoever on my role. Figured a disclaimer was necessary.

Also: I think we should, for the most part, leave TB and TBW to their own devices. Yeah, lynching TBW would be great, but even better would be having TB kill him overNight, because then we have an extra lynch. There's no real way to ensure that we do this, but if we do have a suspicion that someone is TBW, let's ask TB to try to kill xem overNight, rather than lynching them.

Discuss.

EDIT: xed with Zil

[The Elf-warrior]

I say we lynch a suspected BW anyhow. He or she may actually be a wolf. The same goes for suspected cobblers.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

I say we lynch a suspected BW anyhow. He or she may actually be a wolf. The same goes for suspected cobblers.

Suspected cobblers, yes. But I think we should wait a Day to let TB have a go at him overNight. That way, we have an extra lynch, and if xe is TBW, we have a freebie baddie gone.

[Inziladun]

I don't think we're likely to easily find the BW, short of a Seer dream. Xe has the luxury of playing for xemself, and can thus switch loyalties on a dime from village to wolves. That can make it hard to spot a pattern.

If we somehow get a good idea of who xe might be, and there are no better (ie, wolfy) candidates for the Day, I could get behind a lynch. The BW is mainly dangerous for its ability to block the Seer or the Ranger, so it would be risky to leave it to Bombadil and hope xe got it right, or wasn't blocked xemself.

x/d with Lottie

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

If we somehow get a good idea of who xe might be, and there are no better (ie, wolfy) candidates for the Day, I could get behind a lynch. The BW is mainly dangerous for its ability to block the Seer or the Ranger, so it would be risky to leave it to Bombadil and hope xe got it right, or wasn't blocked xemself.

But if we think we know who TBW is, we can let TB hunt him that Night. TB doesn't need to get it right on his own. Xe just needs to be able to use his power. If we can guess who TBW is, then TB can probably, too - or at the very least, xe can see that we think we know who it is and take a hint. The only reason TB wouldn't have the same information on the TBW suspect as we would is if xe'd already tried the suspect, and found xem to be not TBW - in which case, we're better off not lynching xem for suspicion of being TBW anyway. (For suspicion of being a wolf is another question entirely.)

[Glirdan]

Originally Posted by Zil

Xe has the luxury of playing for xemself, and can thus switch loyalties on a dime from village to wolves. That can make it hard to spot a pattern.

If you want to get really technical, the BW almost acts as the Bear role in this sense. The only two differences? He doesn't KILL and there is another role to take xem down.

I for one do not believe that TBW should be on our priority list. If it so happens that we take him out in a lynch, cool. But our efforts should be on finding the Wolves, and for this game definitely the Cobblers as there are two of them. Some of us just learned how dangerous the Cobbler can be at the end.

Personally, I say let TB worry about TBW. After all, TBW is only really dangerous to our Seer and Ranger, and at the start of the game, xe is as blind to them as the rest of us. There is always the chance that xe gets one of them on sheer dumb luck, but that's a 1 in 16 shot, and if the Ranger is anywhere near as good as I was last game [ ] that won't be a problem.

[The Elf-warrior]

Come to think about it, I think Lottie and Glirdan are right. The BW isn't a priority. We should let Tom Bombadil deal with BW suspects. Let us focus on finding wolves.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Also: I think we should, for the most part, leave TB and TBW to their own devices. Yeah, lynching TBW would be great, but even better would be having TB kill him overNight, because then we have an extra lynch. There's no real way to ensure that we do this, but if we do have a suspicion that someone is TBW, let's ask TB to try to kill xem overNight, rather than lynching them.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Suspected cobblers, yes. But I think we should wait a Day to let TB have a go at him overNight. That way, we have an extra lynch, and if xe is TBW, we have a freebie baddie gone.

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

Come to think about it, I think Lottie and Glirdan are right. The BW isn't a priority. We should let Tom Bombadil deal with BW suspects. Let us focus on finding wolves.

Regarding TBW, who I can't say I'm surprised to find the talk of the Day: yes, it's not that important to get him at this stage.

Thing is, though, what do we all suppose to be the distinguishing features of Wightish evil, as opposed to the wolvish or cobblerish kind? Do we really think we could feel confident enough that a given player was displaying the first kind, rather than the second or third?

[The Elf-warrior]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Thing is, though, what do we all suppose to be the distinguishing features of Wightish evil, as opposed to the wolvish or cobblerish kind?

A BW would be extremely concerned about not being lynched. Also, xe would try to prevent either the innocents or the wolves from winning.

A wolf would be concerned about the safety of fellow packmates.

Bill Ferny would probably be more cautious than Harry Goatleaf because Mr. Ferny can spy on the other players, thus giving him an incentive to stay alive to learn the identities of as many wolves as possible.

Mr. Goatleaf does have an incentive to stay alive; he probably would want to stay alive long enough for Mr. Ferny to find him and thus be able to communicate with him.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

Actually, I meant we as in all the villagers, but I do know I'm not a wolf, so the statement is correct, even if you two are wolves.

Methinks you doth protest too much?

On a more serious note, I'm actually in agreement with people (for once) that the BW isn't a huge threat at the moment. According to the rules, they have to kill off everyone else (which seems like it be a mite difficult, but I digress). However, my heart has a good question - Wightish evil as opposed to Wolfish evil? Bears, by their nature, are much harder to track down since they don't have the connections to packmates that the wolves do - they're just like an ordo with an added bonus, almost. But then that begs the question "what if the wolves act like the BW" which opens up an entirely new can of worms.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by EW

A BW would be extremely concerned about not being lynched. Also, xe would try to prevent either the innocents or the wolves from winning.

A wolf would be concerned about the safety of fellow packmates.

Bill Ferny would probably be more cautious than Harry Goatleaf because Mr. Ferny can spy on the other players, thus giving him an incentive to stay alive to learn the identities of as many wolves as possible.

Mr. Goatleaf does have an incentive to stay alive; he probably would want to stay alive long enough for Mr. Ferny to find him and thus be able to communicate with him.

In other words, you can't really tell... not enough to take the risk of leaving a suspicious person to his or her own devices.

Originally Posted by Shastanis

But then that begs the question "what if the wolves act like the BW" which opens up an entirely new can of worms.

Precisely, my pearl. I'm sure we all remember how, in days of yore when a leave-the-cobbler-alone school of thought prevailed, it was common for wolves to pretend to be the cobbler.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Poor Fea. Mind you, at least now I can keep that wight wine I barrowed from her.

[Volo]

I have this vision [stricktly not of a Seerish kind] that if the world was a ball (yea, sounds silly), there'd be a slightly oversized hamster inside of it, rolling the ball from inside.

Uh, excuse me for that. I think it's just aftershock. Even though these are dark times, not often does one hear about something as freaky as that.

I do not mean this as a discouragement for discussion, but at such an early point it, it might be dangerous to speculate seriously whether a Wolf would act like xe was the BW. Even though the BW isn't too harmful now, and can even be really useful later on, it is in our nature to banish all evil, be it harmful or not.
Yet, the BW is probably more honest in xis accusations than either the Wolves or the Cobblers, as it would make more sense to stay away of being suspected as a Wolf. The BW's best chance is thus being honest at what xe says and siding with the village, since the Wolves aren't a threat to xim.

Unfortunately I've done more than my share of giving unwanted advice for now as I'm late from an appointment. Back in several hours.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Volo

Yet, the BW is probably more honest in xis accusations than either the Wolves or the Cobblers, as it would make more sense to stay away of being suspected as a Wolf. The BW's best chance is thus being honest at what xe says and siding with the village, since the Wolves aren't a threat to xim.

I agree with the first part - the BW doesn't know anyone's role, and since s/he wants everyone dead, s/he has no motive to protect anybody - except maybe if s/he thought somebody is useful for his/her purposes. The BW's number one priority during Day phase is to avoid getting lynched, and especially early on it makes no sense for him/her to choose sides. Therefore, I'm sorry to sound like a pessimist but I don't think catching the BW is, at this point, very possible unless by accident - and nor is the BW a considerable enough threat yet to distract us from the wolves.

If we want to discuss roles, I'd like to see more discussion on the cobblers and less on the BW, actually, since I'm highly doubtful we can catch the BW anytime soon. I was contemplating the cobbler issue just now, trying to make out how serious a threat they present. In the most fearsome scenario, Ferny finds out the identity of one or more wolves, and can relate the information to the other cobbler - and suddenly we have potentially as much as five baddies working together. It's also possible that Ferny never gets lucky and we have two more or less blind cobblers who can be just as mistaken about the identity of the wolves as the rest of us.

[Kath]

*waves*

Posting to say that I am aware we've started (thanks oh great mod!) and that if deadline is 11pm GMT then I should, bar any unforeseen circumstances, be here at deadline.

While I'm away I request that no one tries to lynch Eomer or Form. It's been way too long since I played with them.

[A Little Green]

Posting to say that I am aware we've started (thanks oh great mod!)

Kath, you impress me!

[Volo]

Hello, folks!

Still have not heard anything from about a third of our current population, so it's a bit too early to get all serious with conclusions based on tiny little hunches, but if anyone's around and not knowing what exactly to say, I'd like to ask the following: What has currently been fashionable to do with Day1s? Talk about the weather and then lynch anyone who's name starts with an M? (Which would be quite troublesome in the current game...)

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Shall we go ahead and have it out now that suspected Cobblers should be lynched in the absence of lupine targets?

*likes this plan*

Originally Posted by Loslote

But I think we should wait a Day to let TB have a go at him overNight. That way, we have an extra lynch, and if xe is TBW, we have a freebie baddie gone.

Sounds reasonable, but what do we really learn from it? If half the village said, "I think Lottie is the Barrow-Wight and Bombadil should try to drive her out tonight!" and you were still alive the following day, how can we tell Bombadil chose you and not someone else? We'd still keep arguing about whether you're the BW or not.

The BW can afford to be opportunistic and side with whomever she thinks benefits her the most. However, she can do much more damage to us than to the evil side - blocking the seer or the ranger is more serious for us than excluding a wolf from communication with her pack or stopping Ferny from spying is for them. Therefore I suggest that the one she stunned for the night says it out loud in the thread the next day, just to narrow down the field of possible BWs and make things easier for Tom/us.

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

Bill Ferny would probably be more cautious than Harry Goatleaf because Mr. Ferny can spy on the other players, thus giving him an incentive to stay alive to learn the identities of as many wolves as possible.

Yes, but if he spies on a wolf, he will want to let her know. Therefore we should make things as difficult for them as possible and not let weird communication between people (or comments that basically shout "Sir! Spy on me! Spy on me!") go unnoticed.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

But then that begs the question "what if the wolves act like the BW" which opens up an entirely new can of worms.

That's a good point. We can of course hope that the BW can spot impersonating attempts and, in her pride, stuns the person in question as a punishment.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

especially early on it makes no sense for him/her to choose sides. Therefore, I'm sorry to sound like a pessimist but I don't think catching the BW is, at this point, very possible unless by accident - and nor is the BW a considerable enough threat yet to distract us from the wolves.

My pessimist side is inclined to agree with Greenie... But it's the same with the BW as it is with wolves on day 1 - even though they haven't done anything, they have the knowledge that they're not allied with the rest of the village, and sometimes that knowledge shows in their posts. I have no reason not to believe we can't catch the BW, but yes the wolves & cobblers should still be our priority.

Originally Posted by Greenie

If we want to discuss roles, I'd like to see more discussion on the cobblers

I like this game! Everyone wants to talk about the cobblers!

Originally Posted by Greenie

and suddenly we have potentially as much as five baddies working together.

That's highly unlikely, though... Even if Ferny can make himself known to one of the wolves, the wolf isn't probably going to list her fellows to him - for all she knows, the Ferny might in fact be a tricksy seer. Hmm it seems this game might be even more difficult to the baddies than it is for us.
But yes I agree with Greenie that the risk of getting a big baddie team is pretty high, and that's why we definitely shouldn't ignore the cobblers either. They are at their most dangerous when they have a way to find/contact the wolves.

As for Butterbur, the longer he stays alive the better. Of course his death is good for us even early in the game, but the wolves' missing a kill means much more later on when there are fewer people alive.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Volo

Still have not heard anything from about a third of our current population, so it's a bit too early to get all serious with conclusions based on tiny little hunches

Nonsense! It's never too early!

What has currently been fashionable to do with Day1s?

I have been very much into talking about the cobbler(s) for the last year or two. General rule-talk is also popular. Basically it's just whatever you find worth saying.

[Volo]

Thanks for the answer, Agan.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Kath

While I'm away I request that no one tries to lynch Eomer or Form.

We should kill Kath before we regret it later.

Form too.

[Aganzir]

Now that I think of it, there's actually a way we can know whom Tom chose... Only everybody should agree to it, otherwise it doesn't work.

At the moment Tom works alone, but it need not be so. We the village could decide by vote whom Tom tries to drive away. If the one who got the most votes (or, in case of a tie, reached the biggest number first/last) is still alive the next day, we know she isn't the BW.

Everyone should say what they think of it, and if even one person thinks it isn't a good idea, we don't do it (who knows, that person might be Tom himself).

Although hmm there are also a few problems. Firstly, the BW might have stunned Tom. Secondly, it doesn't tell us anything about the person's allegiance, only that she isn't the BW. Still, I think it's worth discussing.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Agan

My pessimist side is inclined to agree with Greenie... But it's the same with the BW as it is with wolves on day 1 - even though they haven't done anything, they have the knowledge that they're not allied with the rest of the village, and sometimes that knowledge shows in their posts.

Good point, though I have to disagree with a part of it. With the wolves, I think what potentially shows already on Day 1 is not so much their not being allied with the village, but the fact that they know almost everyone's alignment, and therefore every "opinion" they give is not genuine. The BW has no such knowledge, and will likely seem just like and ordo in that sense.

Originally Posted by Agan

That's highly unlikely, though... Even if Ferny can make himself known to one of the wolves, the wolf isn't probably going to list her fellows to him - for all she knows, the Ferny might in fact be a tricksy seer. Hmm it seems this game might be even more difficult to the baddies than it is for us.

I know it's unlikely. That is why I labelled it as "the most fearsome scenario" instead of "the likely scenario", you know. It was simply the worst possible scenario I could come up with when thinking about the cobbler business.


EDIT: x-ed with Agan

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

With the wolves, I think what potentially shows already on Day 1 is not so much their not being allied with the village, but the fact that they know almost everyone's alignment, and therefore every "opinion" they give is not genuine.

Yeah that's true, but we have no way of knowing what's genuine and what isn't until we have more information, and even then there might be misguided innocents who look ah so guilty. Although I suppose my comment about the knowledge of not being innocent showing in the wolves' posts comes, in the end, down to the posts not looking genuine... So we seem to be talking about essentially the same thing, just from different points of view.
Anyway I still think it's possible to see the BW is hiding something, just like players might look different when they're playing a gifted.

I like Greenie for now. This is unusual because normally I always suspect her.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

We should kill Kath before we regret it later.

Form too.

*awaits Kath's response*

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Now that I think of it, there's actually a way we can know whom Tom chose... Only everybody should agree to it, otherwise it doesn't work.

At the moment Tom works alone, but it need not be so. We the village could decide by vote whom Tom tries to drive away. If the one who got the most votes (or, in case of a tie, reached the biggest number first/last) is still alive the next day, we know she isn't the BW.

Everyone should say what they think of it, and if even one person thinks it isn't a good idea, we don't do it (who knows, that person might be Tom himself).

Although hmm there are also a few problems. Firstly, the BW might have stunned Tom. Secondly, it doesn't tell us anything about the person's allegiance, only that she isn't the BW. Still, I think it's worth discussing.

Too complicated, I think.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Yes, but if he spies on a wolf, he will want to let her know. Therefore we should make things as difficult for them as possible and not let weird communication between people (or comments that basically shout "Sir! Spy on me! Spy on me!") go unnoticed.

That is something: there's certainly liable to be some kind of signalling among the baddies– they've got a lot to gain by it this game. That doesn't mean it'll be anything so obvious, of course.

EDIT:X'd with Agan.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

At the moment Tom works alone, but it need not be so. We the village could decide by vote whom Tom tries to drive away. If the one who got the most votes (or, in case of a tie, reached the biggest number first/last) is still alive the next day, we know she isn't the BW.

I'd still wonder how we're to single out wightish behavior. The BW will have an interest in lying low and not attracting attention. And not being tied to a particular side will make it that much easier to do that.

Overall, I'd agree with those who say the BW should not be the first priority here. But as I said, if xe's outed by a Seer dream and we don't have a better choice, go for the lynch. Otherwise, leave it to Tom.