Werewolf XLVIII: When Virtual Becomes Reality

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Sigh. For my first game as a Gifted, this really isn't going very well. I don't think I have much choice other than to reveal, since everyone's so focused on me.

Uh-oh... that changes things I'd say. If none calls your revealment a bluff.

But now that you have come into the open you might tell us whom you did protect the first Night if the wolves (hopefully only a wolf) kills you the next Night... We'd do with one more innocent on our list even if it meant s/he would die the next Night.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

You actually had it right, Nog. I protected Kath, hence the wolves attacking her again Night 2 when I was busy elsewhere.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Why didn't you reveal yesterday, Shasta? You looked in a lot of trouble then too.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Why didn't you reveal yesterday, Shasta? You looked in a lot of trouble then too.

Yesterday there was still Mith (and to a lesser extent, Form) to focus on. The plan was to keep my vote till the end and if I still couldn't save myself, THEN reveal. Luckily though people decided to vote for Mith instead. Today though I'm pretty much by myself as a lynch target.

The idea was to get enough suspicion that the wolves wouldn't kill me, but not enough to be lynched. It worked for a while.

[Nogrod]

Okay.

Btw. if you're now true with us you surely understand you won't see the light of the Day anymore after the Night falls. So could you do us a favour and make a last effort, trying your best to come forwards with your mind about all of us.

None of us is infallible but we'd at least know you're not trying to fool or deceive us.

PS. I really don't get a few of your decisions during the game if you're the ranger but maybe we'll discuss them later in the post-game discussion...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

The idea was to get enough suspicion that the wolves wouldn't kill me, but not enough to be lynched.

That's what I try to do as innocent too. It's a tender balance... I know it (just look at this game!!! ).

[Nogrod]

And we need some new candidates now...

Happily I had started reading Rikae as I realised she has been left quite unnoticed and I had some suspicions slowly developing in the back of my head. Now it seems all the more urgent to get it done.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Okay.

Btw. if you're now true with us you surely understand you won't see the light of the Day anymore after the Night falls. So could you do us a favour and make a last effort, trying your best to come forwards with your mind about all of us.

None of us is infallible but we'd at least know you're not trying to fool or deceive us.

PS. I really don't get a few of your decisions during the game if you're the ranger but maybe we'll discuss them later in the post-game discussion...

I know, I know. But given that I truly did think Nerwen and Mith innocent, I don't know how valuable my insights are going to be...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I know, I know. But given that I truly did think Nerwen and Mith innocent, I don't know how valuable my insights are going to be...

Cheer up mate! If you've got so many wrong you'll eventually get it right as well. Stay with us a while still. It's a nicer way to exit a game than just shutting the computer and be down.

Just coming to think of it: our hunter and ranger tearing each other apart Day after Day... And poor Brinn not able to share the fun with anyone...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Cheer up mate! If you've got so many wrong you'll eventually get it right as well. Stay with us a while still. It's a nicer way to exit a game than just shutting the computer and be down.

Just coming to think of it: our hunter and ranger tearing each other apart Day after Day... And poor Brinn not able to share the fun with anyone...

Well I suppose there is that.

And I suppose my hint on Day 2 was a bit too subtle. Ah well. I can point to it and say "SEE?!"

[Rikae]

Here's the exchange about grinning I found a bit sinister - first SallySpammer said "Look at Agan's grin", and then Agan said "How did you guess I'm grinning right now?

Though only at the absurdity of this day ending. "

Not much, but it gave me the creeps.

Well, I said earlier that I found Agan more suspicious than Shasta anyway, and now Shasta's reveal makes it clear.

++Aganzir

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Well, Shasta, I'll believe you for now. Even if you don't die during the night, I'm sure if you are lying the real Ranger would come forth at some point tomorrow. That Shasta & Eomer show was right funny looking back. Are you ready to join forces to brutally slaughter these loathsome wolves?

I haven't been able to make much sense of the Sally kill but perhaps we can gain more if we discuss. I have been thinking that Sally wasn't being too cobblerish. No-one suspected her at any point, really. Then, after her vote yesterday, when it looked as though she might finally be getting some grief from the village today, and thus keeping attention away from the wolves, she's killed by the wolves. I found it strange.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Why did the wolves kill Sally and not me?

[Nogrod]

I seem to have lost a host of tracks now if and as Shasta is innocent...

Some of the points I had on Agan were built on the presumption that she's a wolf together with Shasta. Also my first nagging suspicions on Rikae were brought about by her such staunchly trying to divert the vote away from Mith & Shasta... and trying to say Shasta looks innocentish.

I need to check a few things more...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Well, Shasta, I'll believe you for now. Even if you don't die during the night, I'm sure if you are lying the real Ranger would come forth at some point tomorrow. That Shasta & Eomer show was right funny looking back. Are you ready to join forces to brutally slaughter these loathsome wolves?

I haven't been able to make much sense of the Sally kill but perhaps we can gain more if we discuss. I have been thinking that Sally wasn't being too cobblerish. No-one suspected her at any point, really. Then, after her vote yesterday, when it looked as though she might finally be getting some grief from the village today, and thus keeping attention away from the wolves, she's killed by the wolves. I found it strange.

Hehe, it was quite amusing. Hmm.

I think Rikae and Aganzir to be the most innocent here; but knowing what I do about who I used to think was innocent, this is worrying.

And I still can't shake the feeling that Dury dreamt of Nogrod!

I'm not sure why Sally was killed. Unless it was because she had pointed the wolves out somehow?

Edit: X'd with Nogrod. Oh dear, I feel I've set you to running in circles.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

And we need some new candidates now...

Nog, are you saying that Shasta's revelation should let Aganzir off the hook? Because in your last post, if I recall correctly, you suspected her as well.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Why did the wolves kill Sally and not me?

Maybe because if you really are the hunter (and my guess is that you are) then one of them may get killed.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Why did the wolves kill Sally and not me?

Why did they kill Kath? And why Dury?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Nog, are you saying that Shasta's revelation should let Aganzir off the hook?

Not the least! She's the best candidate I have at the moment. But there's two of them left and betweem them there are connections which need "to work"...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Why did they kill Kath? And why Dury?

I already explained why they killed Kath, . But I do wonder why they attacked her the first time.

[Eönwë]

*switches to IC mode*

Or maybe both Shasta and Eomer are wolves, trying to look like gifteds so we don't vote them for lynching. And that way the gifteds don't need to reveal until later (if they are about to be lynched), and because no-one knows who they are, then they are safe from the wolves too. That way they can continue to save us.

*switches off IC mode*

Seems I got a bit carrried away there.

[Boromir88]

Now onto a Mith and Nogrod connection. (If there is one).

Day 1 I didn't see much interaction between the two, Mith doesn't name Nogrod at all, and Nogrod only mentions her in a couple of posts, in passing. I don't see anything that would point either to Nogrod being Mith's partner, or not.

On Day 2 in Post 188:

So there was a danger of a tie of three emerging including Mith or Nerwen (whom I considered and still do consider not good lynches at least before any better reasons are given).

Nogrod names both Nerwen and Mith. Both are known wolves. I think this looks innocent for Nogrod, he's a smart wolf. Would he name his two partners in the same sentence and defend both of them? With Nogrod anything is possible, but at this time there were still only 3 wolves, and I don't think a wolf-Nogrod would stay that close to his two partners.

Post 232:

We need to check Kit toMorrow. As well as Mith. And I'll promise to read Nerwen properly.

Again he names Mith and Nerwen practically in the same sentence. And he does follow up the next day by "looking" at Mith.

Day 3 we start getting a little more...

Mith in post 300 goes on a tirade:

If I give up trying to sort through the posts (and time is against me) I may well may well vote for him on the principle that I am getting heartily fed up with him acting as some kind of cyber sheep-dog, voting literally at at the last minute, expecting everyone else to vote before him, then wringing his hands in moral outrage when they fail to do what he wants. Especially as when he has done it in other games he has played he has been a wolf. Just seems like such a major back covering exercise as if he is terrified a vote may incriminate him in some way - manipulative without risking the exposure of taking a lead.

And less than an hour later in post 306 she votes for Nogrod:

However I have skimmed again and it strikes me that not only is Nogrod being quietly amnipulative but he is being quiet.... normally you can't look away for a moment without there being more analysis. This time ( and I don't regard it as a bad thing as such) there are many others who are much more active in the discussion. Hard as it is to believe but Nogrod seems to be flying under the radar. Is that because in the classic scenario, Nerwen was a very loud wolf indeed?

Well I seldom regret voting for him and often regret not following through when I do suspect him.

This is what got me first seriously suspicious about Mith. I said her vote for Nogrod seemed really out of the blue, and I remember her the next day saying it wasn't out of the blue at all, she had said she was going to vote for Nogrod before. Going back through everything (unless I missed something from Days 1 and 2) the only time she talked about voting for Nogrod was less than an hour before her vote on Day 3, and only 6 posts before. Sorry Mith, that is still out of the blue.

Also at that time I came to a different conclusion than Mith's reasoning which was just plain out odd...Nogrod's quietness? Nogrod a quiet wolf? He's not afraid to blabber away if he's a wolf. Also, I didn't think Nogrod was that quiet at all. So, definitely Mith's Day 3 vote was what got me suspicious and at that point I thought Nogrod looked innocent.

In Post 311 Nogrod strikes back by saying Mith is wrong. I won't quote the whole thing, because it's rather long and Nogrod is pretty much just saying the same thing that he always votes late (if he can) and Mith saying he does it when he's a wolf is just wrong.

Nogrod strikes back pretty forcefully and a wolf-Nogrod would not be afraid to do so. But, my question is would he start to encourage others to vote for wolf partners? I still remember when I was dooped and as far as I remember he let me lead the case against his partners and he made the crucial lynching votes to look innocent.

In Post 328 Nogrod makes known his willingness to vote for Mith. I want to so bad say oh he's a wolf! But I can't let my bias get in the way here, this doesn't say either way because an innocent Nogrod would do the same.

Day 4:

Nogrod in post 356, 359 and through the rest of the day he keeps remarking that he wants to see Mith lynched, and still thinks Mith is a wolf. There are a couple posts where they have some playful exchange.

In 382 Nogrod defends his reasons for not always voting for his top suspects. Normally I would say to vote for who you think is most suspicious, but when you like to be around at the end like Nogrod he is absolutely right. The situation could be very different and who you want to see lynched might not be possible. So, in that instant you have to make a decision to choose who you think is more suspicious. That's just what Nogrod does, I've noticed so far in this village, at the end, Nogrod making known who he wants to go after tomorrow, but also promising to look at those he thinks are innocent.

There isn't anything else that strikes out to me on Day 4, just the same Nogrod saying he definitely wants to lynch Mith today.

I gone in thinking haha Nogrod you will not fool me again, I know you've gone and done it again. I know you've backstabbed one of your wolf partners. But, I think the conclusion I've reached is completely different, and if you are fooling me again Nogrod I will bring hell down on you next time this happens.

Anyway the conclusion I've come to is obviously Nogrod is a smart wolf, and from the talk throughout these days we are in a village very keen on trying to catch wolf on wolf votes. Plus, I'm in this village and through our lovely past he knows I would want to quickly jump on him for a wolf-on-wolf vote, so would wolf- Nogrod really do it again is the question? Perhaps in the right circumstances, but these aren't the right circumstances. Also, taking into consideration Mith knows me well, and thus knows it would be easy to latch on to Nogrod and frame him. Mith's playful banter looks like an attempt to get me to go after Nogrod, where Nogrod has been pretty much straight to business against Mith since Day 3.

And here comes another flip-flop from me. After thinking Kit's analysis of a wolf-Mith and wolf-Nogrod made sense, I'm going to say it's wrong.

Kit was right when she said if Durelin dreamed of Nogrod early she would not come out strong against Nogrod, she would more or less try to hint at it. I know because when I was a wolf and Durelin dreamed of me on Day 1 that's what she did. She let me have fun and mess around for a few days until I lost Naria and it was down to me and Valier. Then she came out and revealed I was a wolf and she dreamed of me on Night 1.

However, I think Kit was wrong in part of her analysis. Back in that past village I talked about above Durelin would not send confusing messages. She let me have fun for a few days but since she knew my identity she would only address me and the way she avoided my fellow wolves detection was when I would post she would say something like "Boro looks less suspicious to me now." She doesn't do that with Nogrod, she lumps Nogrod and myself together:

Also, Nogrod and Boro haven't been getting nearly enough attention. But really, I feel good about Nogrod's vote, because I like sticking to principles. And I liked Boro's attitude on Day 1 anyway. Day 2 I need to look at...obviously.

I'm inclined to believe Durelin didn't know about Nogrod or me, and like a wise lets the village know that. Let's them know she thinks we're innocent, but we have not been getting enough attention and she doesn't know. I don't think she would confuse us as Kit's analysis suggests, if she dreamed of Nogrod and found out he was a wolf she would be subtle about it. Which Kitanna was right about, but I think she is only half-right.

Edit: crossed with every post since my last one

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Why did they kill Kath? And why Dury?

To kill the Seer, obviously. With the Seer gone why not kill the Hunter while he's focused on innocent Shasta? Yeah, they want to kill the Guardian, but there's no way to distinguish the Guardian from anyone else, and they could spend the whole game trying to kill him/her.

It's all so curious. I didn't mention anyone else as being high in my suspicions. It was Mith and Shasta for me yesterday. There would seem no danger of me taking a wolf down with me.

[Nogrod]

First the wolf-kills.

They spent the two first Nights killing Kath. The second Night is pretty understandable as they had a secure kill then and they must have been feeling a little bad they failed on the first one. But why her in the first place?

On Day1 she posted twice only saying she's in a hurry. Then she voted Eönwë accompanied by this:

Alright, I'm giving up because I need to go to bed and I've people wanting to use the computer. Random vote because hey, it's Day 1. So truly random, I'm voting for the last person to post.

Now did she hit it right? If she did I'd understand the wolves thinking her the seer and wishing to do away with her whatever the cost - not the least remembering the tight spots Eönwë was the first Days.

And how he has not been given almost any attention after that (but by Shasta...)!


Then they went on Dury. If the above is correct then her posts & voting for Mith might have gotten the wolves to their feet once again.

If not... well they both still fit the general description of being good players even if from the quiter end of the scale.


And then Sally - who had actually tried to help Mith. I'm not sure has anyone looked at Sally's suspicions? I mean is she someone who leaves as little trails as possible? At least with Kath and partly by Dury (remember we have read her through a looking glass only because she was our seer) that could be counted as the common denominator as well.


But I'd consider bringing Eönwë back up in the front of suspicions again...

[Boromir88]

++Shasta

Nice try wolf. I guess you get what you want, but now you only have one wolf left and still with the hunter, I feel his/her days are numbered.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Ha!

[Nogrod]

Now Boro you speak such a lot of sense I'm getting scared...

But going back to your earlier post.

Originally Posted by Boro

I have felt Kitanna's voting has been pretty safe.

Maybe it just looks that way because Kit isn't around for the deadline and she usually has to vote early, but even though she is still pretty active, her votes just look like she's trying to stay out of trouble.

That was exactly what I thought in the first couple of Days but after she has also voted "well" I have kind of let her slip away from my radar as there have been more suspicious candidates to fill my mind. Voting for Mith that early in the Day is not too risky and would be a good move indeed - and possibly even agreed by Mith.

OOOOOPS!

I just saw something raising my eyebrows a bit in the thread...
*goes back to see and probably need a cigarette*

EDIT: explanation to the last three lines - x'd with Boro & Eomer...

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

++Shasta

Nice try wolf. I guess you get what you want, but now you only have one wolf left and still with the hunter, I feel his/her days are numbered.

If you're the ranger, who did you protect on Night 2?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Have to go to bed very soon. This Boro/Shasta thing -- it doesn't matter who to believe. The village has the numbers on its side. If the liar succeeds in fooling us today he will die tomorrow, with enough innocents left to keep this game rolling for another couple of days at least.

Also, the remaining wolf will have to consider whether to risk killing me or having a known innocent around until the last day. Last night was your chance!

Edit: speaking gibberish: last night was not your chance, if Shasta is indeed the wolf. The sleepiness is making me stupid. Oh alright, I can't blame the sleepiness for that...

[Boromir88]

If you're the ranger, who did you protect on Night 2?

It was Kath.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Boro

It was Kath.

Bummer. I was hoping we'd have a known innocent after all.
Why Kath, anyway? That might give us some insight...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Boro-wolf would have nothing to gain from this claim. Shasta-wolf at least gets the benefit of discovering the Ranger for his buddy.

[Nogrod]

If that is a challenge... what else it could be... then I'm inclined to trust Boro on this matter; just look at the points made on Shasta this far.

Also and more poignantly: why would Borowolf do that kind of thing? If Shasta is the ranger they already have a secure kill the next Night and no ranger-problem after that!

I need to think if there is a more cunning possibility but at the moment I tend to trust Boro.


EDIT: X'd with the last four

[Boromir88]

Bummer. I was hoping we'd have a known innocent after all.
Why Kath, anyway? That might give us some insight...~Rikae

I've been in a lot of games with Kath, and usually wolves don't go for a loud talker early in the game, but they want to get rid of someone who could be dangerous. Kath is an experienced and good player.

Also Eomer, I have not protected myself yet.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

++Boro

I can prove I protected Kath Night 1.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Rangers can protect themselves nowadays, eh?

So it's very straight-forward? We kill Shasta today and, if Boro has fooled us for some reason, we kill him tomorrow. I can't see how Boro could possibly benefit from such an act.

I will vote in a couple of minutes and then I must go.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Rangers can protect themselves nowadays, eh?

Originally Posted by the rules

-The ranger can protect someone more than once, but not two Nights in a row. He/she may protect him/herself once the entire game.

I was looking at the same thing...

Originally Posted by Eomer

So it's very straight-forward? We kill Shasta today and, if Boro has fooled us for some reason, we kill him tomorrow. I can't see how Boro could possibly benefit from such an act.

Exactly. Unless that self-defence rule doesn't change things... as some of you know I can be quite a conspiracy-theorist at times and I need to mull that over one time before voting for Shasta.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I'm here, I'm here...

but apparently my services are no longer required as Nerwen seems fully capable of making herself understood.

Woe.

Given that I'm not entirely here yet, would it be a bad idea to query as to why there was an attack by the hackers (prevented by the ranger - kudos to you!) and then McCaber... died? Surely there hasn't been enough time for someone to be modfired (the pun was inevitable...)?

Off to read the thread in one go-through now.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Okay, first decent post.

Things that caught my eye Day 1, from my reading:

Bit of an early-on banter-scuffle between Nerwen and Elf-Warrior, Formendacil and Boromir.

Formendacil's bit of a throwaway vote for Nogrod on the grounds, basically, that "it's Day 1, oh well". (Nogrod agrees with me, post #55... but then he would, wouldn't he?)

Nerwen seeing a wolf in "the Agan/Nilp/Form brawl". Personally I don't see one. (Kitanna does, though, post #52.) I see Agan replying to a couple of Form's statements, and Nilp with a bit of unfounded suspicion. To me, the odd one out here is Nilp.

Durelin is, as usual, more concerned with amusement than anything else. Not that that's a bad thing, necessarily, because I do have to join her in "guffawing" at Eonwe's first post, which smacks of trying too hard.

Ka seems to be metagaming a bit (#71) which I frown upon on principle, but not harshly (). Something about her "oh you may suspect me, but I don't suspect you, see how affable I am" attitude in this post strikes me as somehow off, though, even if Agan's suspicions were facetious.

I agree with Mith's #79 about Sally's bit of opportunism - er, her vote. I'm curious as to why Eomer then voiced suspicion of Mith (#84), calling her an early-vote critic, when both Form and Kitanna had people critique their early votes (Agan and Nogrod respectively). In fact, there was quite a lot of discussion about Kitanna's vote and the reasoning behind it. Why wait until Mith posted critiquing Sally's vote? Interestingly, Boromir does the same in #91.

In fact, Eomer's been suspicious of Mith since before her vote (#64). Hmm...

In #98, Eonwe votes for Mith without having previously had any suspicions against her (that I could see, anyway). Curiously, this post comes right after Eomer's post, coincidentally also voting for Mith. Eonwe X'ed with it, apparently... but...

Kath random-votes. At least she's honest. Of course, a random-vote during Day 1 is nearly guaranteed not to be followed up, making it quite safe (and possibly wolf-on-wolf).

Hmm. In #102, Nogrod expressly edits, mentioning Eonwe's edit to say he X'd with Eomer, but apparently did not X with anyone above him, leading me to an odd conclusion. To quote Alice; "Curiouser and curiouser!"

I like Nerwen in #107, where she mentions what I've garnered so far about Eomer and Eonwe.

"So be it", Elf-warrior, I think your vote in #116 is suspicious as it "just happens" to make Sixth the frontrunner in votes.

So, my list (as it is) is as follows:

Suspicious: Eomer, Eonwe

Sort-Of Suspicious: Kath, Sally, Elf-warrior

Mediocre: Everyone not mentioned above or below this line -----------------------

Not-So Suspicious: Nogrod

Not Suspicious: Mith, Nerwen

Thanks, Ka, for clearing up the McCaber business.

I find it amusing that a crossbow is the weapon of choice for our dear Ranger - and why are we in tents anyway? I miss civilization.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Translation:

Hey, silly new person!

Don't you know I was tied for votes with yourself, Mithalwen, and Sixth near the deadline?

Are you being in-character and making up ridiculous conspiracy theories?

Or, are you stupid or what?



Translation:

Why are you posting ridiculous conspiracy theories? Or are you just backing off now?



Yes, but Eonwe wasn't suspicious then, really, all the attention was on Agan, Form, and Sixth.



I don't see why not. It's not as if anyone would follow the first vote for someone, clearly labeled as "random".

I think my next course of action will be to go back and see if I can figure out who was conspicuous enough (assuming they both picked a loud person) to be targeted both by the wolves and the Ranger - that path hasn't been taken yet, can't hurt, and might help. How long before deadline, may I ask? I wasn't here for it yesterday.

Edit: X'd with Agan and... Elf-warrior. Oh, dear.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

As to my previous post; I decided to go do something different, and leave the wolves and Ranger - however, I might go back to that later.

Is the deadline in the next hour, then? It's 5:00 PM for me right now.

There's a reason I mentioned the Ranger so much Day 2. Look at each word following "Ranger -" in my four posts. Now look at the first letter of each word. What does it spell?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Crivvens!

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Well, you knew you had attacked Kath and failed to kill her; and you set up this puzzle to try and convince people that you were the Ranger in exactly this scenario?

Quite intriguing, dear Shasta.