Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXII: Hic Monstrae Trucidant

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Cailín

All right, Mith.

Whom do you suspect now?

Wish I knew ..I have to reread and I left my notes at home but since things have changes so much that may not be a bad thing.

Easier to say that I don't suspect you or Nogrod at this point .... you both seem yourselves. But familiarity is a dangerous thing. Morm reads me perfectly again but that doesn't mean he isn't guilty.

I have no reason to doubt Caran's claim.

Going to read through.

[Nogrod]

Schools out for Summer!

And so much has been said again...

I have scrolled the thread for toDay and will have to think about a host of ideas brought forwards here.

Just one thing to begin with, one that kind of jumps out from the recent discussion.

tgwbs confuses me more all the time, although he seems to be ever more helpful. I disagree with his idea of Caran giving us a list outsdide of which we should not vote. She probably is innocent, but she makes mistakes and has blind spots, as we all do. And surely: if we give all the decisions on who to vote for Caran, the wolves would be very fast starting to use that fact to their advantage (making precision attacks, rousing specific suspicions to influence Caran and her list).

His eagerness to show his innocence (by overstressing the importance of the revealed Hunter) and the suggestion for us all vote on the basis of the list where he (most probably) would not be, seem quite suspicious to me.

EDIT: X-posted with Morm & Mith

[the guy who be short]

Back again, probably for the last time tonight.

I'm on Caran's list, actually, and I still support it. You can argue as much as you like against the idea, but when it comes down to it, over a fifth of us are now wolves. Only Caran's judgement can be trusted by everybody. People who say their analysis disagrees with Caran - the point isn't that everybody should be completely in accord with her. The point is that you could be a wolf whereas we know Caran isn't. Your analysis which disagrees with her - and even mine - could be lupine analyses. Caran's can not.

I don't think I'm overstressing her usefulness here. We have her for one day, but people seem willing to throw her aside. As for myself, I shall stick to my vote as morm is on Caran's list. In any case, she's provided a fairly varied list, so there should be somebody to please everybody in it. I'd encourage you all to listen to her, but it is beyond my power to enforce my will.



In conclusion:

I wanna be the very best like no-one ever was,
*Tum tum tum*
To catch wolves is my real test, to lynch them is my cause,
I will travel across the vill'ge, searching far and wide
*Tum tum tum*
Each wolf to sniff out the demon that's inside

Werewolves! Gotta catch'em all!

It's you and me,
I know it's our destiny!

Werewolves! They're our worst enemy
In a village we must defend.

Werewolves! Gotta catch'em all!
A heart so true,
Our courage will pull us through!
You teach me and I'll teach you.

We-ere-wolves! Gotta catch'em all! Gotta catch'em all! Werewolves!


Sorry. I needed to get that out of my system.

[Cailín]

Fin & Tom are looking more suspicious by the minute.

I still trust TGWBS. Mormegil seems innocent also. I believe Mith since her posts this morning. I also have no reason to suspect Nogrod at the moment. Caranlondien is our Hunter.

Coming to the maybes. Lhuna seems quiet loveable at the moment. I have no reason to suspect her. Since this morning, my faith in Elempi has grown also, largely because the opinion of others.

Feanor of the Peredhil
Celuien
Thinlómien
Tom
Findëasëa
Durelin

Though I cannot be a 100% sure, I'm pretty certain half of these people are wolvish. I'm not quite sure about Caranlondien's list, but as my only actually known innocent I trust her above all others. But -and oh, am I selfish- I trust my own judgement even more.

[Mithalwen]

Just a random thought here re the changeling. Now everyone knows who the hunter is... well the wolves surely won't go after Caran but the changeling if they wish can choose her and presumably kill if attacked by wolves... right? That is a good thought means that Caran's value hasn't been entirely lost by the revelation...

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by Fin

I mean moderate in action, not personality.

Gotcha Between our two styles of searching for wolves, I hope we'll manage to catch 'em all (sounds like a Pokemon commercial).

Originally Posted by Mith

Just a random thought here re the changeling. Now everyone knows who the hunter is... well the wolves surely won't go after Caran but the changeling if they wish can choose her and presumably kill if attacked by wolves... right? That is a good thought means that Caran's value hasn't been entirely lost by the revelation...

I don't think that's how the Changeling works; I think it's just that if they choose me, they get to choose who I hunt for the Night. They don't gain any lasting power; by the next Day, they are back to normal and can't hunt.

Now, this is still good, as it makes it harder for the wolves to guess who'll be dying with me.

[Mithalwen]

Oh ... well nevermind back to the drawing board......

[Nogrod]

I haven't done this kind of a list yet in this game, so here it comes.

Probably innocent:
Cailín - Reasonable and intelligent, makes insightful points. (And if she is a wolf, I admit she has totally gotten myself under her spell)

Can’t see anything right now, but seem normal (innocents) enough:
Celuien
Mith (?)

Might be both ways:
Lommy – I wouldn’t discredit all Morm’s points on her, but can‘t see her as a wolf either, at least yet (haven’t made a closer look on her though)
Tom – Too quiet and careful, but also insightful

Very hard to say, probably my next check is here:
Fin
Durelin

A bit confused / weary:
Morm – if all is RL-based: my sympathies, but he surely could pull the trick too
Lhuna – Very low profile, too low – I sometimes realize I have forgotten Lhuna’s in the game at all (timezones, I know, but)

No idea, whatsoever for now:
Fea

Suspicious:
tgwbs – see my earlier post for some first thoughts about this

[tom bombariffic]

First off, an apology for being so late. The internet in my house was down this morning, and I've not had a chance to catch up until now.

I'm going to make some general observations of what I've read through this evening, and then I'll go back and make a voting decision after checking up on some things and re-reading. My vote will have to be now, because I'm going out later.

The thing that has struck me the most today is that accusations seem to be becoming more personal. In no day so far have there been so many posts from villagers demanding explanations for a vote on them, or complaints at persistent campaigning against them. The frustration at not having caught any wolves yet appears to be boiling over, and I'd just like to remind everyone to try to be calm and analytical. Allowing yourself to be offended is likely to taint your vote with personal grievences, and make it a less balanced decision. I for one am also wary of people who over-react to votes against them; as the tension builds, the individual wolves are likely to become more flustered.

a quick note on mormegil - I am pleased to see that he seems to be increasing his participation in the game. I will go back and look over what he has said today, because this could obviously be a response to accusations levelled against him yesterday by myself and others, namely that he is staying out to fly under the radar. But if the werewolf-weariness is genuine and he is innocent, it's obviously good to see him participating more. As I said, I'll look back and make up my mind. (I also notice the irony of me accusing him of under-participation, and then being absent all morning. My Internet connection obviously has a cruel sense of humour.)

Two players who have drawn a lot of attention to themselves today are TGWBS and Lommy. Whilst having a public argument would be a very bold tactic for two wolves, I see no reason why this could not be an argument between a wolf and the seer. I suggest we look very carefully at their language to see if anyone seems to have a seer's assurance. Come to think of it, this could also apply to any of the personal feuds I mentioned above...I'll try to look at this too.

I agree that caran must be the hunter, as various others have theorised above. On the subject of her making a 'list of doom', this really depends on how much you trust her judgement. If she is perceptive a list will increase the chances of lynching a wolf; if she is mistaken, it will decrease the chances. Giving the people the option of following her suspicions, as she has done, seems to be a useful middle ground as it guides people without confining them. That's all I really have to say on that.

And, finally, myself. Having ranted above about suspecting people who defend themselves, I'll be brief! Just thought I should thank those who pointed out Caran's mistake in my absence. Doesn't mean I don't have my eye on you though...

I'll be back soon with a vote and some specific reasoning (hopefully).

bombariffic

[tom bombariffic]

Having looked back, I am more sure of my point about people agitatedly defending themselves being suspicious.

Durelin's first post today started by saying "I don't feel a real need to overly defend myself", but then went on to do exactly that, as though to try to do so without people noticing. There had been some suspicion voiced by Celuien earlier, but the last two posters (morm and Caran) made no mention of it in their lists, so this reaction seems somewhat overstated.

Similarly, further on in the post, this:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Caran
un-thought-out lynching of SpM

I disagree on the 'un-thought-out' bit, at least on my part. I assure you, my vote for him was not purely out of a rush to save you. Sorry, but it wasn't. (considering you hadn't revealed yourself yet when I voted).

is highly suspicious. Unless I am much mistaken, Caran's post did not accuse Durelin, and yet Durelin felt the need to defend herself again. A possible guilty conscience.

Her reasons for suspecting celuien seem reasonable, but even here, she feels the need to say:

I really want to look at Celuien further (and no, not because she's suspicious of me...it's not like she's the only one, anyway)

This could be excuseable as just a precaution; I could understand someone quickly justifying themself in this situation, but in the context of the very defensive post, I believe it is still relevant and her continued excusing of herself is worth noting.

Various suspicions have been voiced over Durelin's vote for SpM. As she so earnestly notes above, she voted for SpM before Caran came out of the hunting closet, but her reasoning was flip-floppy at best. There have been various posts, for example TGWBS in post 302 or Celuien in post 260. I think the quote posted by celuien in that post shows what I am talking about - I have nothing to add on this point that has not been said, other than that I agree.

Durelin is certainly being very shifty. I intend to have a look at morm and at the TGWBS/lommy posts, time permitting. At the moment, morm and the very defensive durelin (I'll be looking out for other examples of this defensiveness too) are my priority.

bombariffic

[Caranlondien]

Fea => lmp (lmp 1)
Lhuna => Durelin (lmp 1, Durelin 1)
tgwbs => morm (lmp 1, Durelin 1, morm 1)
lmp => Fin (lmp 1, Durelin 1, morm 1, Fin 1)
morm => tgwbs (lmp 1, Durelin 1, morm 1, Fin 1, tgwbs 1)

Left to vote: Cailín, Celuien, Lommy, Nogrod, Tom, Caran, Fin, Mith, Durelin

Unfortunately, I have to vote soon. Very unlikely I'll be back before the Day ends. So I have to figure out my vote...

[tom bombariffic]

I've just been analysing morm and lommy, and I should point out immediately that i've made a mistake in the above two posts - I referred to an argument between TGWBS and Lommy wheras in fact I meant that each had had a personal argument with Mormegil. In my breaking down of my thoughts in my first post, I obviously crossed some wires by mistake when I was writing.

I understand that this isn't a valid reason for editing a post, so I thought I would explain it here, before I cause any confusion. My apologies, during the writing of my first post I got muddled.

vote to come.

bombariffic

[Mithalwen]

I am still doing my revision but will have to decide soon. V hard since so much discussion concerns dead innocents. Durelin is topping my main suspect list but I need to get to the end before I decide.

[Caranlondien]

++mormegil

Sorry if you're innocent (and for once no one can accuse me because I said sorry!)

[tom bombariffic]

Mormegil has shown increased participation today, but I remain unconvinced of his innocence.

One thing I have mentioned today is people's defensiveness and personal arguments, and morm has added to my suspicions about his style by holding defensive back-and-forths with TGWBS and Lommy, in which I found his reasoning dubious.

He begins in post 275 by accusing Thinlomien of voting for him without reason (saying that she did the same with SpM). However, I do not agree with his argument. Playing style is a valid reason to have voted for him, because it was very out of character for him. He also complains that she said she may come back and change her vote, but that when she came back, she didn't. She explained herself at the time, saying that she had 2 suspects, but morm was a less useful player due to his style, and that she was sticking to her vote (as she reminds him in her retort on p.288). to me, this is entirely justified.

I don't necessarily agree with personal retorts (like lommy's post 288), and I remain suspicious of lommy because she has frequently seemed over-zealous in her defence of herself this game, but I have to say I felt the same way as her about morm. Lommy is far too defensive, (see post 297...a joke perhaps, but one that reveals her nerves), but I think morm seemed to have a guilty conscience too. The fact that I dieagreed with morm's arguments, in addition to my initial mistrust of his style (and his fast change), means that my list of suspects looks like this:

1.morm
2.durelin
3.lommy
4.TGWBS

I haven't really had time to investigate TGWBS today, I'm afraid. I'm also aware that it is unlikely that morm and lommy are both wolves, but I think one of them almost certainly is.

Despite my boundless respect for morm's coining of the term "pokecrap", he remains the most suspicious player to me, for the reasons given above.

Therefore, I vote for ++MORM

bombariffic

{Crossed with caran}

[Thinlómien]

My suspicions of morm have somewhat lessened, beacuse he has been quite reasonable while I've been away. I would still like him to answer my questions. This, however, doesn't mean that he's not at the top of my suspcions list; on the contrary, he is.

Exellent points concerning TGWBS have been made. He's eagerness to support Cara and his urging of making a list of doom are somewhat... strange. I still hesitate to truly suspect him, since he's known for his wild theories which make him be lynched as an innocent.

I don't support the idea of Cara making a list of doom (she, as she herself has said, doesn't know anything more than any of us, and less than seer, changeling and wolves), though I personally think her list is a good one.

I will vote morm if no dramatic changes occur or unless he explains himself and answers my questions reasonably.

I'm inclined to think bombariffic innocent because of his thoughtful posts toDay.

P.S. Nogrod feels that it's important that I announce that we're using the same computer and that might affect our gameplay.

[Caranlondien]

Tom, technically you're supposed to put your vote in a separate line Just want to make sure it gets counted.

Fea => lmp (lmp 1)
Lhuna => Durelin (lmp 1, Durelin 1)
tgwbs => morm (lmp 1, Durelin 1, morm 1)
lmp => Fin (lmp 1, Durelin 1, morm 1, Fin 1)
morm => tgwbs (lmp 1, Durelin 1, morm 1, Fin 1, tgwbs 1)
Caran => morm (lmp 1, Durelin 1, morm 2, Fin 1, tgwbs 1)
Tom => morm (lmp 1, Durelin 1, morm 3, Fin 1, tgwbs 1)

Left to vote: Cailín, Celuien, Lommy, Nogrod, Fin, Mith, Durelin

Now... I'm leaving and probably won't be back. I expect I'll die toNight, unless our Ranger has been particularly cunning Apologies in advance if I kill an innocent... which I'm afraid is statistically probable, but I hope to beat the odds. So, good luck, villagers. I'll be rooting for you!

[mormegil]

*There's a noticable twitch in Mormegil's left eye and a jerking of the head, almost as if he's going insane*

I will vote morm if no dramatic changes occur or unless he explains himself and answers my questions reasonably.

What questions would that be dear? I wish I were the cobbler because in a way I want the wolves to win but hear me that TGWBS is a wolf and I think Tom is too.

The list is a bad idea and Caran is smart not to request us to adhere to it. In the last game Gurthang was in a better position to make a list but I, being a wolf in the game, loved it because I exploited it with great effectiveness and it could easily be done today. I see both Tom and TGWBS doing this.

Thinlo drop your preconceived notions of me this game and be realistic. It's not coincidnetal that as soon as the weekend arrived I became more active.

[Mithalwen]

Argh nine pages endless lists....what is genuine what is smokescreen?

All this analysing is a good way of seeming to contribute without revealing much. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a wolf among the listers...

Lommy and Morm stop squabbling... although it does more incline me to think you both might be innocent. I really don't see why morm is so suspicious. I have observed that when he looks most suspicious he tends to be innocent...

Fea I am getting less supicious of but she has been quiet so it is a hard call. Be inclined to wait and see...

Fin and Tom seem reasonable maybe too much...... still suspicious... but not priority .

Most others I can't decide but since there is a bandwagon against morm who isn't someoneI yet suspect and the other main possible target is Durelin whom I have done since the beginning...

++ Durelin

[Nogrod]

= Lommy
Nogrod feels that it's important that I announce that we're using the same computer and that might affect our gameplay.

Yes I do. I remember the ending of the Day2... So we two can't be online at the same time, and to pass the turn to the other one we will have to log out - log in every time.

Morm seems to be the favourite again...

Fea => lmp (lmp 1)
Lhuna => Durelin (lmp 1, Durelin 1)
tgwbs => morm (lmp 1, Durelin 1, morm 1)
lmp => Fin (lmp 1, Durelin 1, morm 1, Fin 1)
morm => tgwbs (lmp 1, Durelin 1, morm 1, Fin 1, tgwbs 1)
Caran => Morm (lmp 1, Durelin 1, morm 2, Fin 1, tgwbs 1)
tom => Morm (lmp 1, Durelin 1, morm 3, Fin 1, tgwbs 1)
Mith => Durelin (lmp 1, Durelin 2, morm 3, Fin 1, tgwbs 1)
Left to vote: Cailín, Celuien, Lommy, Nogrod, Fin, Durelin

I'm not totally happy with the way things are going, but admit, that tom had points worthy of consideration. I can probably make one thoughtful (I hope it is one) analysis toDay - Lommy's little sister is quite jealous of the time we two spend here... We both will return before the Day ends.

But as the situation has changed a bit from my last visit, I will have to reconsider, where to watch now.

EDIT: X-posted with Morm & Mith, corrected the tally & will probably see Durelin now...

[Mithalwen]

sorry I didn't phrase that well. Better to say that I suspect Durelin most of the targets. I don't suspect morm. What am I missing? I glaze over in the analysis and I doubt he would fight so much with Lommy if he were a wolf....

[Cailín]

What questions would that be dear? I wish I were the cobbler because in a way I want the wolves to win but hear me that TGWBS is a wolf and I think Tom is too.

Why?

Why should the wolves win?

And yes, this is a personal question.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I am only going to get quieter. I'm sorry, I didn't mean to be silent to this extreme. Quiet yes, practically non-existant, no.

Villagers, heck, even wolves: I beg of you, please do me one favor:

If you are not certain or reasonably so that you are going to lynch a wolf today, please, PLEASE vote for me to avoid needless casualties.

--LMP

++FotP

[Findëasëa]

The actions of TGWBS today have struck me as quite odd. First, he asserts that he ought be absolved from guilt, along with Cailin for saving Caran yesterday. I think that others have addressed this issue strongly already, and I agree that this contention is not necessarily true. In his first post he begins asserting the importance that Caran has for the village that day. He continues later in the day to be a strong advocate of Caran’s power and usefulness, much stronger then she is herself. His continuous association with her seems to me to be an attempt to appear innocent and helpful. It ended up drawing negative attention to him, but I think that he probably assumed that people would have different reactions to his helpfulness, and never thought it would draw any attention For these reasons I vote:
++TGWBS

[Cailín]

Fea - do be reasonable. If you are an ordinary villager wanting out, PM Kath and the all powerful moddess goddess will make it happen. There is no wolf dying during the night, we need all lynch opportunities we can get in order to catch one. There is no way I am going to waste a valuable lynch opportunity just because you're practically non-existant. If you are an ordo and have the best interest of this village at heart and still seriously want out, this is not the way.

I'm sorry, dear, but I'm quite serious about this.

[Nogrod]

I just read this...

Originally Posted by mormegil

The list is a bad idea and Caran is smart not to request us to adhere to it. In the last game Gurthang was in a better position to make a list but I, being a wolf in the game, loved it because I exploited it with great effectiveness and it could easily be done today. I see both Tom and TGWBS doing this.

You are speaking plain sense here Morm - just what I said in my earlier post (my opinions = sense? Well to me at last ). I'm feeling all the less happy to see Morm go, but surely we would need another believable candidate. I just don't like to vote without a reason.

In this situation, I'll probably try to see Durelin...

EDIT: X-posted from #342 onwards...

[Mithalwen]

This may be madness but what the heck it is what you expect .. but I am going to stick my neck out for morm.

as for Fea ..I thought you might be the seer - all your comments about serving the village by watching. But the seer wouldn't commit suicide.

Fea you ring true becasue I started today expecting to be lynched and my only comfort was that at least a gifted won't die. I had thought of pulling out because of my RL issues but I knew that wouldn't help the village unless they got a wolf instead..and on current form.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Cailín

I'm sorry, dear, but I'm quite serious about this.

Cailin, my dear, I am more serious than you know. Just because you don't understand the incentive behind my last post, there are hopefully others here that, unless I give them too much credit, will, and will take advantage of what I'm trying to do.

Oh my... I wish I was a wolf. This could have been the greatest bluff of all time.

[Mithalwen]

OK who is the best save morm candidate.. should I change to TGWBS who is in my unsure category .. or shall I hold to Durelin.. aieeeeeeeee

[Mithalwen]

Fea ? Now I am confused.......... but I think you are innocent so do you really want me to vote for you ...?

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Mormegil

It's not coincidnetal that as soon as the weekend arrived I became more active.

I sympathize with that statement.

Since my last post, I've read Morm's statements, and he seems normal to me.

And actually, the bickering with Morm speaks to an innocent TGWBS, I think. It wouldn't be the first time two innocent villagers got into a squabble.

Fea, sorry dear, but I think you're innocent, and I can't vote for you even if you request it.

Durelin still isn't sitting right with me, so, for lack of a better suspect:

++DURELIN

[Thinlómien]

Morm, these at least:

Originally Posted by me

Excuse me, but what's suspicious in saying that "I'm not sure if I can be back" and coming back? I'm totally missing the point here.

Originally Posted by me

I totally missed spawn voicing high suspicion of me. A quote, please.

Originally Posted by mormegil

Thinlo drop your preconceived notions of me this game and be realistic. It's not coincidnetal that as soon as the weekend arrived I became more active.

I have said you've made a lot more sense lately and I can say it again. I see you read my posts since you didn't continue your misguided attack on me (though you're still suspecting me, and that's fair enough, this is ww after all) and I liked that too. I may be willing to co-operate with you toDay for the sake of you being quite unsuspicious and reasonable for a while now. I won't however drop you from my suspect list.

So, I might vote morm, or TGWBS who I feel growing suspicion of, though I again feel I might be swayed by the public opinion.

edit: zed with Mith's later post and Celuien

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Cailin, my dear, I am more serious than you know. Just because you don't understand the incentive behind my last post, there are hopefully others here that, unless I give them too much credit, will, and will take advantage of what I'm trying to do.

I suppose I do lack the vision. If anyone can explain, please do so.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I'm not saying that you should all just bandwagon me and be done with it!

That would be really freaking stupid. I suspect I'm giving you all too much benefit of the doubt. Eventually you will understand, though at this rate, only after it's too late.

Mith, only vote for me if you don't have any idea of who you think is a wolf. If you know a wolf, kill it!

Now I'll speak slowly, so to be sure you understand:

I know I'm disappearing due to RL therefore if it comes down to lynching somebody that's probably not even guilty, kill me instead. Since RL stole my time in a fashion most foul, I can't post anything of value and I can't even post fequent invaluable stuff. I'll be killed for lack of participation. So, since I'm already going to DIE, if you can use that fact to keep your population numbers in check, DO IT.

[mormegil]

Excuse me, but what's suspicious in saying that "I'm not sure if I can be back" and coming back? I'm totally missing the point here.

It was in combination with saying that I wasn't a real suspect but then you never seemed to consider others.

I totally missed spawn voicing high suspicion of me. A quote, please

I might be wrong here. I read the whole thread in 24 hours but it was segmented and I thought I remember Spawn saying things about you. I don't really have the time or desire to look back currently but if need arises I will. I think Spawn brought up some good points about many people so perhaps I assumed you too...uncertain though.

[Cailín]

Fea...

Do you know why it is beneficial for the village to organise a double lynching, even though both lynchees might be or are even very likely innocent?

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

I know I'm disappearing due to RL therefore if it comes down to lynching somebody that's probably not even guilty, kill me instead. Since RL stole my time in a fashion most foul, I can't post anything of value and I can't even post fequent invaluable stuff. I'll be killed for lack of participation. So, since I'm already going to DIE, if you can use that fact to keep your population numbers in check, DO IT.

I understand (and understood) that strategy. But I'm fairly suspicious of Durelin, if not 100% positive that she's a wolf, and almost completely unsuspicious of you. I would rather settle that issue now if I can than vote for you and not find anything out that I wouldn't learn automatically after you leave.

I'll be quite sorry to see you go.

[the guy who be short]

No double lynchings.

Nothing more to add.

[Mithalwen]

But we can't have a double lynching... huh oh reduce the probability.. but fact remains that the wolves will kill an innocent each night unless the ranger is effective so it is better to avoid killing innocents each day

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Please don't assume I haven't thought this out. A lot. I've been fighting werewolves for time out of mind. I don't make stupid decisions. I just sometimes over-estimate my colleagues.