Tol-in-Gaurhoth XX: Wereorc I: The elves cannot hide themselves much longer.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Interesting that the orcs would kill her over Zali. Why not go for the gifted rather than the known innocent?

Possibly because they thought Spawn was the Shaman. It makes sense - the Ranger and Orcs have the same goal - to find the Shaman. Since they both picked Spawn on night 1, the remaining Orcs could have taken Zali's pick as confirmation of their suspicions and decided to see if they had really been lucky enough to spot the more dangerous gifted.

That, by the way, is the reason I delibrately avoided bringing up any discussion of "who do you think the Ranger protected" yesterDAY.

If this scenario is true, then Spawn might have said something on day 1 that got the Orcs' attention, other than her generally being a smart player. I'll check to see if there was anything that might fit into this category.

Possibility two: We don't really know that Zali is the Ranger other than by her word. Assuming that she's telling the truth, the Orcs could have decided to take on a strategy of attacking Spawn, then trying to get us to lynch her as a gifted impersonator during the day. On this topic, I believe Zali's claim. Generally, I think gifted impersonation is a bad, bad move for an Orc by guaranteeing being outed as a werecreature eventually.

Other possibility: Zali is an Orc. Unlikely, I think, but posed above by Roa. IF this scenario is correct, I really think the true Ranger shouldn't come out yet. Enough said on this (by me, anyway).

And I'll answer Zali's question about my vote from yesterday. You and Roa were my most suspicious characters yesterday, and I distrusted you more than Roa. I really did need to leave then (and didn't get back until after time was called) so I was unable to wait for a response and voted. Sorry about that - I see that I was wrong now.

About JennyOrc - I don't think the business about the remaining Orcs all having more than one word should be taken too seriously. While she might have left a few truths in her post, I don't think this is one because it would make our job too easy. Only Sleepy Ranger, Legolas iS, and Roa_Aoife meet that description. Any real clues to her surviving colleagues' identities are probably more subtle, and probably from before she knew she was going to die.

[Nogrod]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

1. There's more interpretation than that, Nogrod. It's possible that Jenny didn't mention either of her fellow orcs, in hopes that we would focus away from them and onto these. I think a better question would be who isn't mentioned by her?

2. Then again, Jenny's clever. She may have counted on us not believing her, and so deliberately called her teammates for what they were.

3. Also, as a side note: please remember that we don't know Zali's role for certain. Right now all we have is her word that she's the protector. Since anyone can recieve dreams, it may be that she, as an orc, recieved the dream about Jenny, and bluffed as the protector. She would know who had been protected, too, because that's who she tried to kill before. It could have been a ploy to drive the true protector out into the open after being foiled so early. Which makes me wonder, if Zali is lying, should the true protector reveal themselves? Or should they keep quiet to foil more plans? I certainly wouldn't want to lose a gifted so easily.

Numbering mine...

1. You are right, that's a possibility, and not very far fetched either.

2. That's kind of what I was trying to say...

3. A good point. I have also written earlier, that having or revealing a dream is no quarantee of innocence, but this particular chance you bring up is noteworthy - maybe Zali's "confession" about the earlier night was a slip of tongue, and she told us the truth about a missed attack on Spawn? More to the point: trying to pose as a ranger could be a trial to drive the true ranger out.

But if you think that through, you will see more miracles: if Zali is a wolf, she could have mentioned Spawn just as a point to be affirmed the next night (maybe the real "save" was not Spawn? The ranger would not disagree about that openly - although the wolves might like her/him to do it). Her innocence quaranteed this way? But then there is the question, why didn't she protect her last night?

This brings me to the post by Roa, while I was writing this one:

Quote:
= Roa
The problem with this is that we need to look at the behavior of the known orc as well as the death so we can get a general direction to go in. Maybe the whole thing was a rather large mistake, and they want us to ignore it. I'm actually somewhat surprised you'd suggest that.

What do you mean by the thing I have bolded in your post? A mistake? I can't see a mistake here...

Think Roa, think!

EDIT: This one should be before Celuien's post: I made a mistaking quote/edit -stuff again... happily I had another window open, and could bring this back...

[Nogrod]

Quote:
Think Roa, think!

An elaboration to the last one:

If you (or anyone) are sure, or well groundedly suspicious, that Zali pulled our leg, then we should open this one immediately, and study all the possibilities. But if it is even somewhat believable, that Zali is innocent (which I'm at least inclined to believe for the time being), we should leave this to the orcs to chew. Why give them the answers, and help them to see, whether Zali played well or badly - and so, whether she is the ranger or not?

I'm all up to see Jenny's posts, and all that went on last night... And all the voting records of yesterday & stuff like that.

But the question about Zali's last thoughts, we should think ourselves in quiet, and if someone comes with believable argument concerning her guilt, let her/him come forward, and we try to solve it together. Otherwise - as I said - we just only work for the wolves.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If you (or anyone) are sure, or well groundedly suspicious, that Zali pulled our leg, then we should open this one immediately, and study all the possibilities.

I'm afraid I can't give you that. I just didn't want everyone to just accept her as telling the truth. In RL WW games I've played, (yes, they exist) it's a rather infamous tactic, so the village is considered foolish if they accept the claim with out question.

Originally Posted by Celuien

IF this scenario is correct, I really think the true Ranger shouldn't come out yet. Enough said on this (by me, anyway).

Agreed. Why give the orcs a gift? So, let's move away from this whole issue. We shall see, soon enough.

Similarly, agonizing over Jenny's posts after her death was sealed may just keep us distracted and confused. I'll come back in 8-10 hours to look through her earlier posts.

EDIT: Cros posted with Nogrod's.... revived post?

[Roa_Aoife]

What do you mean by the thing I have bolded in your post? A mistake? I can't see a mistake here...

I have no idea really. I'm just tossing out possibilities. The point I've been trying to make this whole time is that we shouldn't be ignoring any possibilities.

Okay. Off to bed!

[Nogrod]

= Roa
I'm afraid I can't give you that. I just didn't want everyone to just accept her as telling the truth. In RL WW games I've played, (yes, they exist) it's a rather infamous tactic, so the village is considered foolish if they accept the claim with out question.

I'm not accepting her innocence either as a fact. Quite on the contrary! But if we have no better clues - and have a chance to confuse the orcs, let it be for a day, a morning...?

Similarly, agonizing over Jenny's posts after her death was sealed may just keep us distracted and confused.

With this I can't wholeheartedly agree, but I can see your point. I hope some people have time to go through them - I must get to bed as well, for the time is just... morning! Valar help me!

EDIT: Cros posted with Nogrod's.... revived post?

Yes you did - but not so much revived, but re-arranged - I managed to "edit" a post I meant to just "quote". Happily I have managed to bring the earlier post back...

EDIT: X-posted with Roa

[Diamond18]

Well this is just... weird. I was expecting Zali to be the Orc Meat last Night. I'm not sure whether or not this casts suspicion on her, though. In a way, it does look like Zali sacrificed her fellow Orc Jenny, for the sake of looking innocent, but maybe that's just what the Orcs were going for by killing Spawn instead.

I find it interesting that Zali did not reveal the role of the person she protected until I asked her. If she was an Orc, and making herself look like the innocent Ranger was part of her plan, she would have identified Spawn as the protected right away in order to set up a reason for Spawn to die in the Night, right? Unless she was laying out the bait and I bit it. I do find it interesting that she revealed Rangerness without really any prompting, and in the face of what seemed like a very advantageous situation. I pointed out that the Ranger could protect her during the night, and she right away owned up to being the Ranger. This could be a mistake or a calcuated move.

But I don't know. I really feel like Zali is innocent. I think the Orcs killed Spawn because A) just like killing Zali, they were ridding the village of a known innocent B) they wanted to kill her anyway C) this puts Zali in a slightly shady light.

So, until further notice, I'm going to keep on thinking of Zai as innocent. I personally think it a bit stupid on the Orcs' parts to leave the Ranger alive, for purposes of a rather weak bluff, but oh well.

As to player analysis (particularly of the mad hatter, Jenny) I'll follow up with some of that. I'm not sure about doing as complete an analysis as I did before, or just mentioning red flags for or against innocence. I'll see how tired I get.

Despite this bit of Zali/Spawn confuddlement I'm still in rather high spirits about Jenny's demise. I mean, it's not every day my instincts prove good, so I could be lynched unanimously and still be happy.

Back with more.

X-posted with, er, well when I started this post we were still on page 6.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Diamond18

Well this is just... weird. I was expecting Zali to be the Orc Meat last Night.

I agree with most of the things you stated, but not this one. Maybe we all should start to see, that the dreamers are just like vessels - they are not shamans. There is no major reason for orcs to kill the dreamers: as Jenny rightfully noted in her fury, it's highly improbable, those people get another dream - and if I may add to this point of Jenny's - their innocence is known to orcs already (no news to them, and thence no special reason to kill), unlike to us, who are not able to see the innocence or guilt of a dreamer, even if she gives us an orc...

That's partly, why I have been worried about last night...

Off to bed now! Will be back, and try to do more than yesterday.

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Maybe we all should start to see, that the dreamers are just like vessels - they are not shamans.

I know that. I never said otherwise. But Zali claimed/admitted to being the Ranger. This is paramount to saying, "Hey, I'm gifted and I can't protect myself, kill me."

Though, now that I think about it, if they really thought Spawn was the Shaman, they'd know that Zali could protect her again, and would go right for the source.

Of course, the joke is on them, since Spawn was not the Shaman. So now we have both the Shaman and the Ranger both living.

I am working on analyzing Spawn's posts now, looking at them with the slant that the Orcs found something there that screamed "Shaman" to them. I've got some theories which I hope are not total bunk.

[Celuien]

Okay, this may be a little confused because it's late for me and I really should have been asleep for about half and hour, but I had a few thoughts...

First: Jenny-O interactions from day 1 -

There's one thing that's making me sort of uneasy about Sleepy. If you look at posts #13 and #47, Jenny expresses joking suspicion of a few villagers, one of whom was Sleepy. Sleepy then votes supposedly randomly for Jenny in #48 and says this:

Solely for that comment, yes, I know that my vote choice (and reason) will be dis-liked by most people but I don't see JennyHallu being voted off so yeah...

It almost looks like wolves distancing themselves from one another with light suspicion and a safe throwaway vote tossed out as randomness.

So Sleepy moves to the top of my suspicion list based on day 1. I haven't thought too much about what he's done since then, other than to guess that if he's an orc, Naria is innocent since he went along with Jenny's accusation. Actually, that back and forth with Jenny at the end of yesterday looks fishy, but like I said, I haven't thought too much about it yet. I want to hear what this plan is that he hatched yesterday.

Two: What Spawn might have called on day 1 to look like she had a dream:

On day 1, Spawn suspected Roa the most and voted for her. If she was right, Orcs might have suspected a Roa dream and chosen to kill her before she could reveal. However, Spawn tends to be more subtle than that, so I'm not sure that a Spawn as a suspected Shaman would have been thought to have voted for her identified dream on the first day. Her other suspects from #34 were Diamond18, Findëasëa, and Sleepy Ranger. So any of them could have been Orcs wanting to eliminate a Shaman who potentially spotted them. And would have had more cover than an Orc-Roa who would immediately have moved to the top of the suspect list, which makes one of those three a more likely Orc than Roa in my mind. Actually, it fits with my Sleepy Orcsie theory nicely. Especially since my suspicion of Diamond has waned significantly and I don't have much to make me suspect Findëasëa.

Okay. Off to bed. See you in a bit.

[Celuien]

Afterthought: Sleepy as an Orc fits for those who want to believe that Jenny really meant it when she said the last Orcs had two word names...

[Diamond18]

The Short and Tragic Life of One Strangely Named Elf Who Was Too Smart for Her Own Good
Or, an Analysis of Spawn's Posts

I'm going to approach Spawn's posts with the assumption that the Orcs thought she was the Shaman, and that something in these posts made them extremely uneasy. There are alternative modes of thought, such as that the Orcs want us to analyize her posts with the mindset that they thought she was the Shaman. But I can only handle so many theories knocking about in my head at once.

Spawn's posts:

#31 - #34 - #44 - #140 - #158 - #166

In her first post, Spawn puts forth a very sensible argument that the dreamers should opt for sound arguments rather than obscure hinting. Any ordo could do this.

In her second post, Spawn names some names -- Diamond, Roa, Findëasëa, Sleepy Ranger The first two, she seems suspicious of. She brings up Findëasëa's newness and seems ready to be forgiving of it. To Sleepy she makes a vague comment that is mostly a reply. This makes Diamond and Roa seem the most suspicious in her view. Roa is the one she spends most time on.

In her third post, Spawn votes for Roa.

Result: Spawn's Day 1 posts cast the most suspicion on Roa.

On to Day 2:

Even if she was the Shaman, she would not have any special knowledge because her dream would have gone to Zali. But it's still worth taking a look at what she said.

In her fourth post, Spawn explains her reasons for the previous Day's posts. Knowing she was an Ordo, we can pretty much take her at her word when she said she was just posting things that had caught her attention. Making, in other words, sound arguments. But maybe you're an Orc reading this and think, "She's the Shaman and she dreamed of Roa and she knows Roa is an Orc."

First post, she goes over more names -- Azaelia, Findëasëa, Grendelien, Naria, Kitanna, and Legolas. She doesn't seem very suspicious of any of these people.

Third post, votes for Nogrod. She doesn't want to put Diamond in the lead for lynching. She doesn't mention Roa again.

Result: Day 2 eases some suspicion on Roa, because if you're thinking Spawn's the Shaman and knows Roa's dirty little secret, wouldn't you think she'd continue to go after Roa? Her vote for Nogrod would have to be based on her face value reasoning, because as the Shaman she wouldn't have gotten her own dream. So why would she abandone the guilty Roa and go after someone she couldn't know about? Maybe, as an Orc, you just assume that she's trying to protect herself and not seem too "Shamanlike" by continuing to go after Roa based on logic that has been called into question by Nogrod.

The combined Days posting makes me suspicious of Roa, depending on what the Orcs are thinking. It's entirely possible they saw how suspicious it would make Roa if they killed Spawn. On the same token, isn't it kind of stupid to kill someone who has boldly accused you? Roa's not stupid. And what does all this say about Nogrod? He seemed highly suspicious of Spawn's reasons for voting Roa. Would an Orc, worried about his fellow Orc being in the spotlight, seek to force her accuser into admitting being the Shaman? That seems unwise. Because you'd get your fellow Orc killed, even if you did then confirm who the Shaman was. Wouldn't it be more wise to carefully avoid addressing Spawn's comments in hopes that no one really notices ?

Okay, that's it for now. I'm disinclined to vote for Roa. I'm not sure what to think of Nogrod. I am going to look at Jenny's posts.

[Caranlondien]

Jenny:

DAY ONE

#13: Agrees with Celuien that dreamers should not reveal their dreams immediately. Jokingly accuses Dancing Spawn, Roa, Sleepy, and Diamond

#27: Says she'll be in and out today. Tells village to quit obsessing over dreams. Says that revealing dreams helps the orcs narrow down who the Seer is, and thus Nogrod's fierce support for the plan makes her nervous.

#47: Lists those she finds suspicious: Nogrod, because she thinks he's supporting a bad idea; Diamond for "general hyperness"; and Sleepy for random vote.

#52: Votes for Diamond, for lack of substance.

DAY TWO

#108: Rejoices we are all still here, but says she almost wishes we knew who the "wolves" had gone after (hmm, wonder why she'd wish that ). Says she awaits Celuien's analysis with interest.

#121: Tells Diamond there is a big difference between volume and substance.

#136: Tries to explain away Diamond's suspicions of her by saying that she didn't object to a discussion about dreams, but did object to spending the whole day on them. Says she still finds Diamond pretty suspicious.

#157: Tells Nogrod she's suspicious of him. Says she thinks Dancing Spawn is innocent (noting most of the village is, too - perhaps trying to go along with the majority?).

By the time she made her next post, Jenny knew she was going to die. I have to assume that from this point on, she's doing her best to confuse us, and she's done a heck of a job...

#219: Implies Zali is another wereorc. Says both remaining orcs have more than one word in their name and are "sneaky sneaky". Implies one of the orcs is male, and another is experienced in the role. Tells the orcs not to kill the dreamer, but rather someone like Spawn, Roa, Nogrod, or Diamond.
Votes for Grendelien, for "the joyful friendship we've been developing".

#222: Says Findeasea is a wolf.

#223: Says Naria is an orc.

#227: Sarcastically wishes Sleepy good luck in analyzing her posts.

#229: Says Naria really is an orc.

Summary: In her posts before the revelation that ensured her death, Jenny mostly talks about suspicions of Diamond. She initially suspects Dancing Spawn, but then (sensing the village's general opinion, I think) backs off and decides Spawn is innocent. She also mentions Roa, Sleepy, and Nogrod jokingly, and follows up suspicions on the latter two. She mentions Celuien (although only to say she eagerly awaits her analysis).

In her posts after it became clear she would die, she tells the other orcs to kill Spawn, Roa, Nogrod, or Diamond. She also essentially asserts six things about the identities of the orcs:

1) Zali is an orc.
2) Both remaining orcs have more than one word in their name.
3) One of the orcs is male and another is experienced in the role.
4) Grendelien is an orc.
5) Findeasea is an orc.
6) Naria is an orc. (And she says this twice.)

Clearly, they can't all be true. Possibly, none of them is true. But, I suspect, at least one of them is true. Unfortunately... I have no idea which one(s).

EDIT: Cross-posted with a bunch of people...

[Nogrod]

I have smoked a couple of cigarettes thinking about this - as I couldn't get sleep - and now Celuien's posts really made up my mind. We have non-retractable votes, and I know, some of you might vote before I get back online after some sleep.

So, I'll follow my principles, I've stated - and discussed earlier, and go on to reveal a dream.

Sleepy is not an orc.

The things I have been wondering before Celuien's posts, have been:

- When should the dream be revealed? That was decided by the post of Celuien and my need of sleep: there could be some serious voting before I come back, and we can't afford an innocent lynch - if we can avoid it. This lessens the scope for our targets by one.

- Could the revealment really be helpful or not? Now I say yes, because the orcs have lots to think about: they missed the seer by going after Spawn two nights in a row, if so, then they can't be sure about Zali's rangership either, and now they will be given Sleepy's known innocence. There are some nuts to crack for you monsters! What to do? Yes, what to do? Chew that!

- Should I hide my knowledge? Well, I have been such a loudmouth, that I have a constant fear of death every night, that I just can't count on my waking up at each game morning. If I died the next night, my dream would have been wasted, and with these suspicions stated by Celuien - and partly by his own behaviour the first day - Sleepy would have been lynched one day, quite soon - and that would have been just one more innocent lynch.

So here we go. Carpe diem Sleepy! Show that you can be of help! I know, I'm putting you to a harms way now, but that's just to make things harder for the wolves. You can face death, look it straight to the eye, don't you?

EDIT: X-posted with Diamond & Caran

[Nogrod]

When do I get to sleep!!?? Just have to make "just one comment" more...

The Jenny-analysis...

Originally Posted by Caranlondien

#47: Lists those she finds suspicious: Nogrod, because she thinks he's supporting a bad idea; Diamond for "general hyperness"; and Sleepy for random vote.

#219: Tells the orcs not to kill the dreamer, but rather someone like Spawn, Roa, Nogrod, or Diamond.

#47 I think my idea is shining ever more brightly after these occasions...

#219 I think it should be read differently: she was talking to us villagers, to get rid of Spawn, Roa, myself and Diamond? Well, that should be checked... I was a bit confused myself about the subject of that sentence when I read it the first time.

Good night. (Good morning...)

[Caranlondien]

Originally Posted by Jenny in post #219

No need for an orc to kill a dreamer, boys and girls, what are the odds he/she gets a dream again? Kill someone really threatening, like Spawn, Roa, Nogrod, or Diamond.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

#219 I think it should be read differently: she was talking to us villagers, to get rid of Spawn, Roa, myself and Diamond? Well, that should be checked... I was a bit confused myself about the subject of that sentence when I read it the first time.

Actually, that's how I read it at first, too, but after re-reading it, I think she is talking to the orcs. She starts out talking about how there's no reason for the orcs to kill a dreamer (I guess she means Zali?), and her second sentence seems to be in reference to the first, so it looks like she's still talking about the orcs doing the killing.

Even more cunning, perhaps it's meant to be ambiguous, to confuse us even more...

[Caranlondien]

And I, too, must get some sleep. Hopefully things will seem clearer on the morrow...

[Diamond18]

The Crazy Orc That Was
Or, an Analysis of Jenny's Posts

Jenny's posts:

#13 - #47 - #52 - #121 - 3108 - #136 - #157 - #129 - #222 - #223 - #227 - #229


The thing that stands out most to me, about Jenny, is understandably that she was my loudest accuser. I did not at first understand why she was so quick to jump on me for lack of substance, I began to suspect that she was an Orc who had sniffed out an easy scapegoat, and now I'm sure of it.

In her second post, it's Nogrod, Diamond, and Sleepy she points the finger at. I am thinking she was testing the waters to see who she could get others to bandwagon for. Especially since Nogrod has claimed to dream of Sleepy's innocence. If this is true, that shows that Jenny accused three innocents in this post. Like I said, testing the waters.

Third post, she votes for me. I later said this about this post:

Originally Posted by Me

#54 Votes for Diamond saying not enough substance. (Diamond finds this whole trend highly annoying and no fun at all, and thinks Jenny is one to talk, but then she’s already spoken her piece about that. )

(It was post #54 when I wrote my analysis, and now it is #52. You'll remember some posts had to be deleted, changing the post numbers after that.)

To this Jenny was quick to say:

Diamond, there is a big difference between volume and substance.

Still going after me, and probably feeling the heat of my suspicion. After I wrote a more detailed opinion post, she wrote a more detailed defense of herself. This can all be considered rubbish now that we know she was guilty. I was right to suspect her posting and she knew it.

So anyway, because Jenny seemed set on me as her favored scapegoat, I really have to wonder: what were her fellow Orcs doing? Were they supporting her in this endeavor? Were they playing the Good Cop to her Bad Cop? I know that a few players agreed with Jenny about me (Naria, LiS, Kitanna, Caran, Nogrod and Celuien at first) and others didn't (Grendilien, Nogrod and Celuien eventually, Roa, and Sleepy) so now I'm of course wanting to look closely at these people. Though Nogrod and Sleepy may be off the hook.

Of course, her fellow Orcs may have decided to mostly ignore me in order to distance themselves entirely from Jenny.

And then, I may be totally narcissistic to think any of the posts to or about me have any real significance. But Jenny didn't make many posts and most of them (pre-outing) either were excuses as to why she couldn't be active, or accusations of me.

I'm not sure I even want to try analyzing her posts after she was slated for death. They're obviously only there to drive us crazy.

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Caranlondien

Actually, that's how I read it at first, too, but after re-reading it, I think she is talking to the orcs. She starts out talking about how there's no reason for the orcs to kill a dreamer (I guess she means Zali?), and her second sentence seems to be in reference to the first, so it looks like she's still talking about the orcs doing the killing.

Frankly, I think she wanted the villagers to find Spawn, Nogrod, Roa, and Diamond as suspicious. By telling the Orcs to kill them, she could be pretending to bluff, by basically telling two of the Orcs to kill themselves. That's what I'm guessing she wanted some villagers to think. Look who's on the list.

Spawn = Innocent
Me = The person she's been trying to get lynched
Nogrod = possibly innocent, looking so if he's honest about Sleepy
Roa = the person who would be extremely suspicious if Spawn had been the Shaman

So right now I'm thinking this is a case of speaking the truth to make it look like lies. Or just speaking the truth, period.

There is a possibility this is split in half, with me and Spawn innocents and Roa and Nogrod Orcs. But I don't believe that. My instincts tell me all four are probably the same and therefore all four are innocent.

[Grendelien]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But then there is the question, why didn't she protect her last night?

Assuming Zali is the Ranger, and she really did protect Spawn the first night, Spawn cannot be protected a second night in a row. If Zali remembered this, then why would she have revealed that she protected Spawn the first night, knowing that she can't protect her the second night? It may have been because she wanted us to believe that she truly is the Ranger, and is not lying about it...or it may be because she wanted to gain our support by rescuing an innocent (Spawn), who Zali, if she were an orc, would've already known to be an innocent before the killing.

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by Grendelien

Assuming Zali is the Ranger, and she really did protect Spawn the first night, Spawn cannot be protected a second night in a row. If Zali remembered this, then why would she have revealed that she protected Spawn the first night, knowing that she can't protect her the second night?

The Orcs knew that Zali protected Spawn. So it was for the benefit of the innocent villagers that she revealed this. Assuming she's been telling the truth. And I think she is, mostly because there was really no need to put Jenny on the chopping block yesterDay. She had no votes. She was successfully flying under most people's radar. It would be a most reckless Orc-on-Orc action to suddenly out her, I think. I do not think it is beneficial to the two remaining Orcs to have lost Jenny the way they did -- as an Orc Zali could only survive for so long pretending to be the Ranger.

[Grendelien]

Nogrod, reading over your post again, were you asking why Zali did not protect Spawn last Night (assuming that Zali did not protect Spawn the first Night)? I don't want to misinterpret your words.

[Grendelien]

Originally Posted by Diamond18

The Orcs knew that Zali protected Spawn. So it was for the benefit of the innocent villagers that she revealed this. Assuming she's been telling the truth.

Ahh yes, I forgot about this. Sorry about that. I think I did misinterpret Nogrod's post.

[Diamond18]

People I am most suspicious of:

Kitanna
Naria
Legolas in spandex

These three are all very quiet and have either voiced suspicion for me or voted for me. It is my feeling that at least one of them is an Orc and has been acting as Jenny's accomplice to some extent.

People I am less suspicious of:

Findëasëa
Caranlondien
Grendelien
Celuien

Caran and Celuien both voted for me the first day but seemed to mostly drop their suspicion afterwards. They could be Orcish accomplices who drew back when I showed up to defend myself. Or they could be innocents who joined Jenny's bandwagon because the reasoning looked good. Only, Celuien voted for me first, so if anyone was starting a bandwagon that day, it was her.... Hm.

Findëasëa and Grendelien are on my radar but I haven't got more or less reason to suspect them than anyone else in the first two categories.

People I am least suspicious of:

Azaelia of Willowbottom
Nogrod
Sleepy
Roa_Aoife

[Diamond18]

Okay, boys and girls, this is it for me. I normally don't like to vote so early in the Day, but tomorrow I don't expect to be around hardly at all, and I know I won't be around at the deadline. So there's not much point in putting it off.

+ + Kitanna

If you don't see me at all for the rest of the Day, don't be surprised. I may pop in, but no time for long analysis or anything. If the need should arise for me to defend myself, bloody tough luck. You can look at my earlier posts and imagine what I might say.

[Findëasëa]

It seems that the claims that JennyHallu made before her death were aimed at promoting dissent among people. She mentioned some of the villagers most prominent, if also most questioned, individuals. We know at least one of these people, Spawn, is innocent. For reasons that I state below, I believe that Nogrod is also innocent. The other two she points out as dangerous are Diamond and Roa. Jenny subsequently accused some of the most quiet members of the village including Grendelian, Naria and myself. The separation of these groups seems to me a clear tactic that would cause confusion and disagreement. This is a really intelligent strategy, playing off of the apparent differences between the quiet and more talkative villagers.

I would guess that at least one of the names mentioned is a wereorc. The identities of the wereorcs might be more obvious if she were to leave out or to include both of the wereorcs in either the group of names mentioned or not mentioned. She probably wanted to make the wereorcs as unrelated as possible in people’s minds. Among the first four that she mentions the two that I have not ruled out yet are Diamond and Roa. She points out Naria twice as a wereorc. I might be wrong, but it would seem that this would be too obvious of an approach. A wereorc would most likely not want to draw attention to any sort of connections that could exist. Jenny seemed in control in both her earlier posts and the ones she made after she was made aware of her impending death. I doubt she would make this kind of move. I do not really know about Grendelian, but she does not stick out as suspicious to me as of yet.

I thought it was interesting that she threw more suspicion upon the quiet members of the group. As was discussed earlier, it would make sense if the orcs wanted to throw suspicion upon those in the village with the most contribution, in order to cripple the village and to leave the quiet members to get picked off with little resistance. Jenny’s accusations, therefore, could point towards a loud orc. I know that the statements that Jenny made after learning about her death were meant to confuse and lead us astray, but, given her skill, it would make sense that she put a good deal of thought into her posts so that it would not implicate her fellow orcs.

I have also been thinking of the dream that Nogrod had about Sleepy Ranger. If this is a lie it would be quite a risky move. It involves putting oneself at risk as a known innocent. If he is a wereorc, it could be a cleaver ploy in order to best win over the trust of the people of the village. Nogrod was one of the people yesterday who received enough votes early on to put him at risk for being lynched. I do not think that he would make a desperate move like this in order to defend himself from a lynching today. It would be too transparent, and there is a possibility that it could be easily called into question by any person having the real dream. From this, I am inclined to believe in his innocence.

[Grendelien]

Originally Posted by Findëasëa

I have also been thinking of the dream that Nogrod had about Sleepy Ranger. If this is a lie it would be quite a risky move. It involves putting oneself at risk as a known innocent. If he is a wereorc, it could be a cleaver ploy in order to best win over the trust of the people of the village. Nogrod was one of the people yesterday who received enough votes early on to put him at risk for being lynched. I do not think that he would make a desperate move like this in order to defend himself from a lynching today. It would be too transparent, and there is a possibility that it could be easily called into question by any person having the real dream. From this, I am inclined to believe in his innocence.

I have been thinking the same things, with the exception that the dream really did fall into the hands of Nogrod. I have come up with three possibilities, all of which coincide with Findeasea's post. But please, correct me if any of you find error in my reasons.

Assuming that Nogrod really did receive the dream (which I believe he did, because, as Findeasea stated, it would be too risky for him to lie about receiving the dream), and the dream really was about Sleepy (considering Sleepy's recent posts against Jenny's orcish outbursts could make him seem entirely innocent or entirely guilty, I believe the Shaman did chose Sleepy to dream about) here are some possibilities I came up with:

1) both Nogrod and Sleepy are wereorcs. I don't thnk that Nogrod would lie about Sleepy's nature, because it would just be too risky for them both. If we ever lynched one of them, or if an ordo received a dream about either, both would be done for. They may have done this, hoping that they would kill the Shaman before an ordo receives a dream about them, but it just seems too risky. That may be a risk they are willing to take, but I find it highly unprobable.

2) Nogrod is an orc, and Sleepy is an ordo. If the shaman did choose Sleepy, and the dream happened to fall into the hands of Nogrod, Nogrod could have truthfully revealed that Sleepy is an ordo. This way, if Sleepy were later killed by the remaining wereorcs or lynched and his elfish identity revealed, this would give us reason to believe that Nogrod is an ordo.

3) Both Nogrod and Sleepy are ordos. This seems fairly likely, and I will read over Nogrod's reasons for revealing the dream again in the morning.

As Findeasea stated, there is a chance that Nogrod did not receive the dream and is lying about Sleepy's identity, but I agree that this would be even riskier than receiving the dream and lying about Sleepy.
There is also a chance that the dream was not about Sleepy, and Nogrod is just trying to get the Shaman to say something...but by doing this, even though the orcs would know the identity of the shaman, they would be down to 1. I don't think they would risk lowering their numbers to 1 at this point.

So, based on this, I have a feeling that both Nogrod and Sleepy are innocent, or that Nogrod is an orc and Sleepy is innocent. But please add to/correct anything I said, for the reasons that I give are just thoughts!

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Sleepy is not an orc.

Well there goes my theory. I doubt that the dream is a lie.

Known (?) innocents:
Zali
Sleepy

Votes:
Diamond -> Kitanna (Kitanna -1)

I'd better find myself some more suspects toDAY. Unfortunately, it's a somewhat bisy day since I have rehearsals tonight, which is going to complicate my suspect search..

[Nogrod]

So. Assuming that Zali has told us the truth, we will have quite a clever orcish thing going on.

Trying to kill Spawn on the first night was a clever thing. It would take out one good player(Spawn), and point the finger on another (Roa). So kind of a "two-in-one" -stuff.

Killing Spawn on the second was clever too. It was safe (no ranger coming in between there any more), and it made Roa look even worse + it also casted some minor doubts on me (Spawn, who now was proven innocent, had suspected and voted for me DAY2).

On these grounds I think it was wiser for them to kill Spawn first - pressing on the villagers suspicions towards their active fellows. Zali could be on their list next.

So the whole stage is set for us to suspect Roa (and possibly me too). In an individual scene, Jenny then tries to make us believe, that we should get rid of Spawn, Roa, Diamond and me.

Enough for the time being for me to go on jumping over either Diamond or Roa. [Edit: Oh this broken english of mine! I mean: I'm not going to waste my energy on them today]

If that is the case, we will really have to start working on this.

[Sleepy Ranger]

First off I'd like to say, I shall accept death and all that may come of it. My journey so far has been great and I really enjoyed playing a fool on Day 1, Day 2 turned the tide in our favor and I did begin to stop acting like a fool, this may be our last day together so I shall try my best to help you as well as I may. I don't blame you for anything Nogord, you did good. I knew you were innocent though I may have been in a bit of doubt earlier.

If I'm not back again this time tommorrow.... Carry on... Carry on... Doesn't really matter

Too late... my time has come... send shivers down my spine, bodys aching all the time... good-bye everybody I've got to go, got to leave you all behind and face the truth

Mama... ooo (any way the wind blows)... I don't want to die, I sometimes wish I'd never been born at all

Sorry couldn't resist doing that...

My Opinions On You!

Caranlondien: Possibly Innocent
I don't really see anything wrong with her but theres something in the back of my mind that keeps telling me that her posts have a level of guilt in them. Are you hiding something from us Caranlondien? If so, cough up.
Possible Risk: ***
---

Nogrod: Innocent
I was certain of his innocence since the time Spawn was proved innocent. To me it seemed Spawn was coming onto him too hard, which made it look like if she were a wolf then she was trying to make it look like Nogrod was innocent (which he wouldn't be) yet Nogrod has been reasonable and I believe that hes innocent.
Possible Risk: None to us
---

Grendelien & Findëasëa: Possible Orc(s)
They both seem to have that new person demanor for some reason, they seem like they want to try their best to help. I don't like it. However it would be odd for both to be orcs so I'd say if one is an orc the other is innocent however theres a big chance both are innocent.
Possible Risk: ***
---

Celuien: Innocent
I think Celuien is innocent... I could be wrong but I think she is... y'know I think she may be the shaman...
Possible Risk: **
Note: She is the shaman!
---

Zali: Ranger
---

Diamond: Innocent
Its obvious shes an innocent, I refuse to listen to any theories anyone would have regarding her. If at the end of all things Diamond is revealed to be an orc I'll drop my title of 'King of Quotes'!
---

Kitanna: Orc
I'm almost certain Kitanna is an orc that and I've never liked players who are too aggressive. I'll probably vote for her or Naria today.
Possible Risk: *****
---

Naria: Orc
I don't know why but I believe JennyHallu for some reason...
---

Sleepy Ranger: I... am... Sleepy... Ranger...!

---

Legolas in spandex: Hopeless noob
That is all that needs to be said.
---

Roa_Aoife: Innocent
At this stage I can't see her as anything but.

[Sleepy Ranger]

Wait...! I just though of something! Could it be possible that Zali is in fact *not* the Ranger but the Shaman? Think about it, she came out as ranger to keep her shamaness self hidden. And she probably thought it may work to confuse the orcs. On another note if I'm wrong and the actual Shaman has dream about an orc would they please come out? I dunno I just have a feeling the Shaman is Celuien!

[Findëasëa]

sleepy ranger:
You confuse me. We, or at least I, believe that Nogrod's dream about you was true and that you are an innocent. My question then is why you are posting your suspicions about who the shaman is? Isn't it in our best interest to try to hide this from the orcs? Let them do the figureing on the shaman. Making statements about who you think is the shaman only serves to limit the pool of people that they suspect.

[Sleepy Ranger]

Originally Posted by Findëasëa

sleepy ranger:
You confuse me. We, or at least I, believe that Nogrod's dream about you was true and that you are an innocent. My question then is why you are posting your suspicions about who the shaman is? Isn't it in our best interest to try to hide this from the orcs? Let them do the figureing on the shaman. Making statements about who you think is the shaman only serves to limit the pool of people that they suspect.

Rest assured, I know what I'm doing. I've got something up my sleeve, its a wild card and I think its the ace of spades.

[Roa_Aoife]

Scanning through- I have to go back and re-read everything, but this caught my eye.

Originally Posted by Diamond

Especially since Nogrod has claimed to dream of Sleepy's innocence. If this is true, that shows that Jenny accused three innocents in this post. Like I said, testing the waters.

Just because Nogrod dreamed deosn't mean he's innocent. He may be an orc trying to cover his tracks. Dreamership doesn't equal innocent in this game, since even the orcs can dream. Not that I don't trust Nogrod (I don't) but it seems a bit rash to assume this means he's innocent when it doesn't.

Also, I wasn't particularly suspicious of Diamond before, but she keeps pointing to Jenny's accusations as though they place her above suspicion somehow. The one game where I played as a wolf, I was quite ruthless in going after one of my teammates during the day. If Jenny was paying special attention to you, it could mean quite the opposite.

And also this-

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I have smoked a couple of cigarettes thinking about this

Stop smoking. It's bad for you.

[Celuien]

Hmm. Am I the Shaman?

I'm not going to say. If you think I am, please don't say anything more to help the Orcsies spot me.

If you think I'm not a gifted, also don't say anything for now. It'll just help protect other Shaman candidates from being killed at night if I'm the leading Shaman suspect.

Either way, I'm probably doomed toNIGHT. But I don't mind. I've done my job.

Not saying anymore about this subject.

[Caranlondien]

Not much time... I'm almost late for class.

First, I agree with Roa that Jenny's fervor in pursuing Diamond certainly doesn't rule Diamond out as a suspect. Neither does Nogrod's declaration that he dreamt of an innocent Sleepy make Nogrod innocent. And neither does Jenny's mention of Roa make her innocent, as Diamond seems to think. I'll be keeping a close eye on those three (Diamond, Nogrod, and Roa).

However, I do believe that Sleepy is innocent. If an orcish Nogrod had lied about an orcish Sleepy, in a few days time we'd all be wondering why Sleepy wasn't dead yet. And once we knew one of them was an orc, we'd have a nice little trail to follow to the other. I don't think Nogrod would be so foolish.

This is all I have time to write for now, but I'll be back a few hours before the Day ends; good luck, fellow villagers, in sorting out this mess while I'm gone.

[Kitanna]

First off, I'd like to respond to Sleepy.

She can be a rather aggressive player at times, in fact I believe shes been aggressive in all the games I've seen her play. Her silence disturbs me, could something be wrong? I don't know but I'd definately like to hear from her.

Indeed something is wrong, my lung has been coughed up and that is why I have not been around much. I'm not trying to fly under the radar.

I'm almost certain Kitanna is an orc that and I've never liked players who are too aggressive. I'll probably vote for her or Naria today.

Why? Because I'm agressive? That's a day one excuse for trying to get someone lynched, not a day three reason.

Interesting that the orcs would kill her over Zali. Why not go for the gifted rather than the known innocent?

I wondered at this myself. Were the orcs angry Spawn didn't bite the dust on Night two so they decided to go after her again. Now if Spawn was going to be a "safe" kill for them on Night Two it wouldn't make sense for them to try to kill her again on Night Three, unless they thought she knew something.
On Day One Spawn mostly suspected Roa and Diamond, but she mentioned Findëasëa and Sleepy. (But it appears Sleepy is innocent due to Nogrod's dream) Her mention of Findëasëa was quick and not so much of an accusation. Something like that could be enough to get the orcs attention.
On Day Two her first post was mostly defense against Nogrod's suspicions. She also mentioned Findëasëa again in her Day Two posts. Findëasëa is the only name Spawn brings up twice in an analysis. May mean something, it may not...

Originally Posted by Findëasëa

If I were a wereorc, I would try as hard as possible to make my image separate from that of my fellows in the minds of the other players.

When villagers outline what they would do if they were werecreatures, I always feel a little unsettled. It's like "Hey, I would never do this to the village, therefore I'm not an orc."

There's more interpretation than that, Nogrod. It's possible that Jenny didn't mention either of her fellow orcs, in hopes that we would focus away from them and onto these. I think a better question would be who isn't mentioned by her?

Then again, Jenny's clever. She may have counted on us not believing her, and so deliberately called her teammates for what they were.

One way or the other Jenny was trying to confuse us. I think she most likely named off one of her fellow orcs and kept the other one silent. Jenny's is clever and it's possible she was anticipating the village response. So, she gave us a list of names and she mentioned at least one teammate knowing we'd either look carefully at those she mentioned or those she didn't, but not both. Looking at everyone will be like repeating day one.

I do find it interesting that she revealed Rangerness without really any prompting

I'm sure Zali will speak for herself on this, but perhaps she thought if we knew her role she'd have more credibility when it came to the dream.

Though, now that I think about it, if they really thought Spawn was the Shaman, they'd know that Zali could protect her again, and would go right for the source.

The ranger isn't able to protect the same person two nights in a row though. So if the orcs thought Spawn was the shaman they should know she'd be unprotected the next night.

1) Zali is an orc.
2) Both remaining orcs have more than one word in their name.
3) One of the orcs is male and another is experienced in the role.
4) Grendelien is an orc.
5) Findeasea is an orc.
6) Naria is an orc. (And she says this twice.)

While it's hard to say what is true and what is not I'd say number 1 is false. I feel Zali is innocent, though we can never be sure, I think she told us the truth about her role. Also I think of the other five "clues" Jenny left, number 3 will probably be the truest. Of all the others I think if any were to be true this one would be the one. I don't follow all the WW games, so I can't say who is experienced in the werecreature role. I think the part about one being a male is true, simply because the odds of the orcs all being one sex are slim.

Sleepy is not an orc.

I'm glad Nogrod revealed the dream. I was far from convinced of Sleepy's innocence.

If this is a lie it would be quite a risky move. It involves putting oneself at risk as a known innocent. If he is a wereorc, it could be a cleaver ploy in order to best win over the trust of the people of the village. Nogrod was one of the people yesterday who received enough votes early on to put him at risk for being lynched. I do not think that he would make a desperate move like this in order to defend himself from a lynching today.

Desperate times call for desperate measures. If Nogrod is an orc he could see reveals Sleepy as an innocent a way to clear his name. He reveals Sleepy because Sleepy has gathered suspicion today and if he saves Sleepy from the noose he'll look good. And should Sleepy die during the night (any night) Nogrod can always say "Well, I saved Sleepy from a lynching, why would I be foolish enough to kill him at night?"
Now I am not convinced of Nogrod's innocence at all. I believe he speaks the truth about Sleepy, but I have been weary of Nogrod since day one and his revealing the dream does nothing to take away my suspicions.

Wait...! I just though of something! Could it be possible that Zali is in fact *not* the Ranger but the Shaman? Think about it, she came out as ranger to keep her shamaness self hidden. And she probably thought it may work to confuse the orcs. On another note if I'm wrong and the actual Shaman has dream about an orc would they please come out? I dunno I just have a feeling the Shaman is Celuien!

Ack! I discourage revealing who you think is the shaman because you just might be right. I have an idea who I think it might be, but for fear of being right I won't reveal it. The last thing I want is our shaman getting mauled in the night.
As for Zali being the shaman and just pretending to be the ranger I recall Fea trying something like that and it ended badly.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Caranlondien

I don't think Nogrod would be so foolish.

Well, thank you! Just from the brief look at this, I thought this village had gone completetly mad!

RL-issue: have to visit my mom, as she requested. I'll be back in some couple of hours and try to hang as long as I dare: I have work tomorrow, and the closing time of theDay here is 3AM today.

I have read the posts again, and am starting to think, that maybe I should put Diamond back to my list of suspicions...

Basically I looked at the posts of three yet unknown to me, eg. Caran, Grend & Find.

Just a shortcut (bus leaves in then minutes).

Caranlodien I do not suspect much, even her judgements on the basis of her (very good) analysis seem weird or even contradictory at times...

Findëasëa has started quietly and made some confusing choices to beging with, but she has been getting better all the time.

Grendelien seems intelligent, a bit too intelligent to be a total newbie (just like had been pm'd about the stuff all night?) Also see Spawn's analysis on her! See for yourselves! This is just a "look and see" -warning. I don't know what to make of her. Looks very good - and thence very bad...

I'll try to be back asp. and try to elaborate then.

PS. Sleepy: C'mon, cool down! Just help us now, please! You will probably be alive tomorrow anyhow...

[Sleepy Ranger]

Look Nogrod, bear with me for a while. I know what I'm doing, trust me on this. I am calm, I know I won't die tonight but if I see to trap an orc I'll take it. Just trust me on this, I know what I'm doing.

As for you Kitanna, you hadn't posted in a long while and I guess I worded my post wrong but I meant to say that it didn't suit your aggressive nature. And I didn't know about your lung so yeah.

[Grendelien]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

If Nogrod is an orc he could see reveals Sleepy as an innocent a way to clear his name. He reveals Sleepy because Sleepy has gathered suspicion today and if he saves Sleepy from the noose he'll look good. And should Sleepy die during the night (any night) Nogrod can always say "Well, I saved Sleepy from a lynching, why would I be foolish enough to kill him at night?"
Now I am not convinced of Nogrod's innocence at all. I believe he speaks the truth about Sleepy, but I have been weary of Nogrod since day one and his revealing the dream does nothing to take away my suspicions.

I've had this suspicion as well, but it's possible that Nogrod is an ordo and has hidden motives in mind when revealing his dream. I'm very torn between these two possibilities.