Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow.

[Lalaith]

I hope I've counted right, but I believe we currently have a vote for Farael,(tgwbs) a vote for Kath, (Form) and two votes for Lhuna. (Lommy, Eomer)

I keep thinking about poor spawn, wherever she's been taken by her white-robed figure, silently shouting at us, no, you fools, can't you see I meant xxxxxx....

So, what or who was this xxxxxxx? It could of course be nothing but two innocents, ie, she never dreamt of a wolf at all. I can see the argument in favour of a wolf-Kath (particularly the way spawn kept repeatedly rebutting the idea of a "Kath frame-up") but I will trust in her specific use of the word "wolfish" against Lhuna.
Perhaps we should, as some here have suggested, do a double-lynch, of Lhuna and Kath. I however will vote for the one I think is most suspicious.
In an ideal world, I would wait for Lhuna herself to speak - I wish I could, but I can't be sure that I can get back online in time tomorrow morning.

++LHUNARDAWEN


PS

One third of us is now guilty

Again, Cailín, I find myself challenging you on numbers. We are now 18. A third of that is six but if you count the lover as guilty, that still only makes five....don't want to be a pedant, but as we are quibbling on odds and percentage points, we need to get these things right.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by SamwiseGamgee

I can't help but think that Farael, staring down the barrel of getting lynched, is desperately trying to shift everyone's focus.

Feel free to think that way, those who know me also know that I don't mind being lynched when my presence has become a disturbance to the village rather than help, but I think I can still help, even if some suspect me. Furthermore, I think I've been pretty consistant, even from before the first suspicions were voiced.

I suspect Kath much more than Lhuna, although I don't think Lhuna to be innocent "For sure"

After today's happenings, I also have second-thoughts about TGWBS

I think we should lynch Kath (and so I have for the last two days) and then tomorrow possibly TGWBS.

Of course, that shifts focus away from me... because I'm obviously not advocating my death just yet. But it's an irrational statement, your comments on me also shift the focus away from you and into me.... and Glirdan's last comments on spawn shift the focus to Kath and Lhuna again.... every comment shifts the focus, and I obviously won't get the focus on me because there is nothing to focus on!

[SamwiseGamgee]

That's not wholly true, Farael. Explaining oneself doesn't shift focus, does it? My real point was the fact that it seemed somewhat desperate.

But I'm not going to vote for you today, because I'm going to vote for:

++ Lhunardawen

I know I said I'd only wait half an hour when I first posted this evening, but then Family Guy came on, so I delayed!

Vote total is now thus:
Lhuna: 4
Farael: 1
Kath: 1

[Celuien]

Voting update:

Thinlomien --> Lhuna (Lhuna 1)
The Guy Who Be Short --> Farael (Lhuna 1 - Farael 1)
Formendacil --> Kath (Lhuna 1 - Farael 1 - Kath 1)
Eomer --> Lhuna (Lhuna 2 - Farael 1 - Kath 1)
Lalaith --> Lhuna (Lhuna 3 - Farael 1 - Kath 1)
Samwise --> Lhuna (Lhuna 4 - Farael 1 - Kath 1)

I'll probably vote for Lhuna unless we're still trying for a double lynch today, in which case I'll vote Kath.

EDIT: crossposted with Samwise. Voting summary edited to reflect his vote for Lhuna.

EDIT again: I'm actually somewhat more comfortable with voting for Kath than I am for Lhuna. Besides, my vote may be needed to coordinate the double. And I don't know how late I can stay to wait for Lhuna. So, to keep my word not to vote for Lhuna before hearing from her and for the other reasons above.

++KATH

And I've edited the vote count once again to reflect my vote below:

Thinlomien --> Lhuna (Lhuna 1)
The Guy Who Be Short --> Farael (Lhuna 1 - Farael 1)
Formendacil --> Kath (Lhuna 1 - Farael 1 - Kath 1)
Eomer --> Lhuna (Lhuna 2 - Farael 1 - Kath 1)
Lalaith --> Lhuna (Lhuna 3 - Farael 1 - Kath 1)
Samwise --> Lhuna (Lhuna 4 - Farael 1 - Kath 1)
Celuien --> Kath (Lhuna 4 - Farael 1 - Kath 2)

[Kath]

Disclaimer from the last post should be repeated here!

Day 2:

Spawn:
Mentions that I had spoken before Ang made his post and agrees that Ang’s death possibly makes me and Eomer look bad, but doesn’t think so really. Links Ang to Eomer and suggests Eomer is a wolf. Points out that Ang spoke out a lot against Glirdan, but she doesn’t think him a wolf as he has been posting normally. Possibly an indication that she dreamt of him, found him innocent and is dismissing him from her suspicions, but that’s a stretch.

Looks again at Lhuna, making a case against her and finds her actions and words seem wolvish. Now if she did dream of Lhuna that’s pretty damning evidence, but if not it’s simply speculation. It is, of course, impossible for us to know which.

Voices some suspicion of Naria. Again could be a dream, but I think it would be far less likely for spawn to dream of Naria than Lhuna given the choice.

Makes a point of repeating that I posted before Ang, but I don’t know which direction that’s pushing in.

Pretty cross with Eonwe for his unreasoned vote but says she won’t vote for him.

Seems to feel that the wolves taking time out on Night 2 to specifically set me up is a little farfetched. Thinks it’s possible I am a wolf, but after she begins that train of thought she stops claiming it confuses her. Is defending me far more than accusing me. I’m not harping on about this really, I’m just trying to work out where the idea that spawn was blatantly accusing me of wolvishness came from.

Picks up on Lhuna’s ‘a wolf either way’ comment. Votes Lhuna claiming that the arguments of others have swayed her. Now if she dreamt of Lhuna and wanted to get her lynched without revealing herself to be the Seer that has to be one of the best ways to go about it. And this post combined with that idea is seriously swaying me toward the ‘Lhuna is a wolf’ camp.


Lhuna:

I was afraid that Anguirel might have been an extremely bold Seer; thank the Mod God he isn't.

This has been quoted a lot and seemed to start off the suspicion of Lhuna. Why should it be so wolvish? Is it not possible that she was simply thankful that the wolves had not got the Seer? I’m not saying it isn’t the first option, but there are two possibilities here. And yet there is still the matter of not breaking this double lynch. It really does speak against her, but it’s so obvious! I just can’t help thinking a lupine Lhuna would be more subtle.

Defends herself about leaving the double lynch as it stood, saying she couldn’t vote for Guy due to principles. This again has been taken as a wolvish statement but again it seems too bold. But Lhuna could well be a bold wolf.

Tar-a picks up on Lhuna’s use of ‘we’ when speaking of saving Garin and though I think this is a little pedantic the point remains that she could be trying to ally herself with a group of innocents. If Lhuna is a wolf perhaps those she included herself with should be viewed as innocents, that’s Ang, Lommy, Form and spawn. Well we know two are – Ang and spawn.

Lommy begins to make a case against Lhuna over her reluctance to take sides. Now Lommy can’t realistically accuse anyone of flip-flopping when she herself does it so often, but the scenarios she gives are acceptable. Her scenario 3 seems to be following the same lines as my mind toDay, except that I think Lhuna did ponder her vote, and chose to go with her principles. However, that doesn’t exclude the possibility that her principles helpfully coincided with her wolvish desire to let the tie stand.

Put on Eomer’s suspect list due to, apparently, her thinking Glirdan and Garin were innocent and being worried about it. Not much reasoning there.

Gives a simple defence, reiterating her reasons for not breaking the tie. It’s a calm defence too, but I’m not sure whether that speaks in her favour or suggests she’s a cool wolf.

Cailín is somewhat suspicious of her as is Gurthang. But nothing concrete from either of them.

Samwise repeats his reasons for suspecting her and they are fair ones but seems quite happy to switch his vote to someone else. Odd that.

Has some support from Lommy over the ‘wolf either way’ comment. However as I think Lommy innocent that doesn’t help much.

Samwise votes for Lhuna based on his earlier suspicions, presumably because no one better turned up.

Has some support from Cara, who thinks the comments that spawn and others picked up on were blown out of proportion (which I tend to agree with).

Lhuna returns and repeats her defence, answering questions thrown her way. She does keep pointing at Samwise, with good reason for some things but it seems more like she’s trying to shift the suspicion from her to him.

Argues against spawn saying she too left the tie and voted elsewhere, but this is unfortunately incorrect. Spawn voted after the tie had been dealt with. It looks here like Lhuna is trying to ally herself with spawn, and if Lhuna is a wolf then she is trying to ally herself with a known innocent (to her). Votes Eonwe because of the silly vote.

Suspicion from lmp because of the ‘Ang. . .Seer’ quote and the ‘we wanted to save Garin’ quote. Votes Lhuna due to her digging herself into a hole.

Cara votes Lhuna because she seems more suspicious than Eonwe.


Farael:
Explains why he didn’t become suicidal and why he defended me rather than Eomer or Glirdan. Then, within a post, switches from defending me to accusing me. His options are a little rigid for my liking (but then they would be, they make me guilty either way) and I don’t think they cover all of them. The case is there, but it’s not solid.

Cailín has him at the top of her suspect list.



Ok, well, I obviously don’t like Farael’s point of view as he is making a case against me. As to everyone else doing the same thing, if you are basing this on spawn’s words then please go back and reread them, as I really cannot find anything she said that would make me out to be a wolf. Everything she said about me was vague and flip floppy, especially in comparison to what she said about Lhuna.

And as for Lhuna, I did not want to think her guilty, I still don’t. But looking at the evidence from the last two days and the sheer strength of the arguments against her, as well as support of those arguments from a Seer . . . well.

++LHUNARDAWEN

Oh and looking at that most recent post from Farael, why is he completely ignoring Lhuna? His suspect list from his words goes Kath, Lhuna, Guy, but his order of lynching goes Kath, Guy.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Kath

Oh and looking at that most recent post from Farael, why is he completely ignoring Lhuna? His suspect list from his words goes Kath, Lhuna, Guy, but his order of lynching goes Kath, Guy.

Sorry, maybe I wasn't clear.... I said that Lhuna is still a suspect, but not as much as you..... and given our latest exchanges, Guy.

[Caranlondien]

I may not be able to return toDay, so I shall cast my vote now:

++LHUNARDAWEN

I suspected her yesterday, and I suspect her today. Good luck, everyone; May we lynch a wolf!

Edit: Cross-posted with Celuien's Edit and with Farael; I see Celuien's point about the possibility of a double lynch, but I'm just not sure about Kath, and I'd hate to lynch an innocen just for the sake of doing a double lynch...

[Formendacil]

Kath, I hate to say it- well, actually, I don't hate to say it, since I'm on your case anyway- but that vote of yours really looks like a Werewolf trying to save their neck rather than the reasoned vote for a Seer-confirmed candidate that you make it out to be.

[SamwiseGamgee]

Off to bed, but before I go, it's Lhuna: 6 and Kath: 2. If there's going to be a double lynch better get a move on.

[Gurthang]

Well, I'm becoming less and less sure of what I thought I was sure of...

I'm still in support of lynching Lhuna toDay, and it looks like it is going to happen. Kath has explained herself a little, and it also brings to mind that some of what I had been basing my opinion of her on was what Farael was saying. I'll have to go back and check to see exactly how spawn mentions Kath. But, my main suspicion of Kath is that it would emake sense with both Ang's death and spawn being taken away and is not only based on what spawn may or may not have said about her.

I am also still in support of a double lynch toDay. I am becoming a little more suspicious of Farael, so either he and Lhuna or Kath and Lhuna would be alright with me. As things are going though, it looks like it might be Lhuna only.


One more thing; After TGWBS mentioned The Plan toDay, a lot of discussion (and by a lot I mean possible as much as half) was wasted on it. I don't suspect him a lot right now, but, even given that The Plan was supposedly made with good intentions, it was definitely a hindrance to toDay's discussion.

Voting:
Lhuna - 6
Kath - 2
Farael - 1

I will be voting later; probably close to the end of the Day.

[tar-ancalime]

I know that I'm not online at the same time as many of the rest of you, but I'm starting to feel a little ignored!

from Kath, regarding Farael:

Actually starts off the Day trying to make a case against Ang. Well there’s a thing! Was this ever brought up?

Yeah, actually, and I voted for him for this reason. I retained my suspicions of him yesterday as well, though I became more nervous about Eomer. I still don't trust either of them.

quoted by Glirdan, attributed to Thinlomien:

Or maybe it's simpler--I freely admit I haven't taken the time yet to look at spawn's posts yet. I will do it, and with the question in mind that I proposed yesterday for all wolf kills in this game: What did she get right?

That was me.

Kath again:

Someone said that the wolves knew who the Lover in their own ranks was. How would they know that unless the wolf Lover had told them, and where would be the point in that?

That was me too. I don't think the wolf Lover has told them anything; but I do think that it's harder to hide in a company of four than in a company of twenty, and with all the wolves' access to each other (public discussions, PMs day and night) it would be strange if at least one of them hadn't cottoned on to the Lover by now, after three Nights and almost three Days. If I'm wrong, well, hats off to the Lover wolf for being a better dissimulator than I give you credit for.

[Glirdan]

Oh Eru.... I have no idea who too vote for. There's cases against both Lhuna and Kath and talk of a double lynch (which I support). There's only small bits of facts pointing towards Kath being a Wolf. There's not a whole lot in spawn's posts that suggests a dream of either of them. The only thing I can really go on is what Eonwe said in post #33, that the Ordo Lover is probably laying low which suggests a few people: Kath, Caranlondien, Valier and Naria. Out of those four, I'm ready to eliminate Valier from what spawn had said in post #30 where she disagrees with Gurth and Garin. I'm also ready to eliminate Caran because a)she's a newbie and b) she's posted quite a bit with substantial posts and is helping the village greatly. Naria's been worrying me for quite some time now because of the scilence and Kath...well, I don't really have anything to go on for Kath. I'll be back after I go over the posts I've missed and, hopefully, I'll be able to draw conclusions from them.

[tar-ancalime]

You know, I didn't have a problem with Kath at all until her recent post that includes her vote. But she's really grasping at straws to defend herself:

In her analysis of spawn she brings up spawn's comment that Ang didn't trust Eomer. I thought "Oh goody! Did she find something I missed on Eomer?" So I went back and looked at spawn's post, and there was nothing really there. Just the two references to Eomer that we talked about yesterday.

What bothered me most about Eomer was not Ang's two references to him, but the way he deliberately ignored the second and stronger one (in which he's linked to lmp) and deliberately called attention to the first and weaker one (in which he's linked with Kath), thus hoping to link himself to early, humorous accusations only. Granted, neither of Ang's comments on Eomer is particularly strong, but it bothered me then and it bothers me now that he ignores the second one in favor of the obviously humorous first.

Ang's comments are moot, as he is dead and not a Seer, but Eomer's reaction to them is not. Likewise, Kath's redrawing of attention to these two Eomer comments (knowing full well that they're far back in a long thread and those who haven't already started what may be an irrational suspicion of Eomer aren't likely to go back and check) looks a little squidgy to me, to say the least.

I still hold suspicion for Farael, the more so now that he has started to nurse what looks like a grudge against tgwbs. It can't look any other way--Farael largely ignores tgwbs in his pursuit of Kath, then when tgwbs starts to turn on Farael, well, the claws come out, so to speak.

But for today, anyway, my suspicions of Eomer and Farael are going to have to take a back seat to the main event:

To double lynch or not to double lynch?

Let's remember this: if we double lynch once, it doesn't mean we're going to have to continue to do it every day. tgwbs's plan would essentially have required that, as it would force us into a race with the wolves, and relenting on the double lynches of men would have erased our advantage. But double lynches in general don't have to play out this way.

Naysayers who bring up endgame statistics in reference to double lynches at this point in the game forget that it's not a tool we have to use every day.

For today, though, I think it makes sense. There are a lot of villagers whose names have hardly been mentioned. We need to clear the air, to get some fresh discussions going, and to do that we've got to rid ourselves of guaranteed lynch candidates.

With that in mind,

++Kath

to keep the possibility of a double lynch alive.

[Glirdan]

After going over the last few posts, I think I've finally come to a conclusion. After reading Kath's voting post and her reasoning behind her vote (for Lhuna), I'm now inclined to believe her guilty. She says, and I quote:

And as for Lhuna, I did not want to think her guilty, I still don’t. But looking at the evidence from the last two days and the sheer strength of the arguments against her, as well as support of those arguments from a Seer . . . well.

So, she doesn't want to think Lhuna is guilty, and still doesn't think Lhuna's guilty yet votes for her anyway. Add on top of that the fact that she's bee pretty quiet (read my post above for more info on that) and I think we've got a Wolf in our hands.

So, without further ado

++Kath

Good night everyone and may we finally catch a Wolf.

[Lhunardawen]

Ooh. So. This is how I'll die? With my fellow villagers planning my lynching while I am fast asleep - thanks to my darned timezones? How reminiscent is this of a certain village in Numenor... *coughcoughWerewolfXIVcoughcough*

This will be a long read, so it might take sometime for me to be back with something to defend myself with.

But seeing that you've already planned my death, is there even a point?

I hope you have fun washing off the blood of an innocent from your hands.

[littlemanpoet]

What did the dead innocent get right?

Garin: (lynched)

I am not a wolf.

Fat lot of good getting this right got us.
Was inclined to trust Anguirel. (#73)

Anguirel: (killed by werewolves)
Apparently nothing of moment.

Eonwe: (lynched) Huh, he says that casting a random vote on Day 2 with evidence available would indeed be idiotic, and then does so. But he did say before his infamous random vote on Day 2 that he would have a hard time getting on line, which probably meant that he couldn't do the research he intended. He did say he was sorry for randomly voting again. It now looks to me like some werewolves may have taken advantage of his infamous vote and joined the bandwagon against him.

******************

What did the dead innocent say that might be right or wrong?

Garin: (lynched)

#34: thinks Cailín is innocent.

#79: saw abnormalities in Farael's posts.

Anguirel: (killed by werewolves)

# 51: defends Cailín against Samwise's suspicion.

#51:

If TGBWS is a Wolf, then throwing himself into danger could be a strategy to keep Valier out of it. If he's a Lover, it's a quixotic gesture.

#69:

I don't trust the harper [Eomer] who accuses ye one bit

#112: thinks Glirdan's vote was very suspicious.

#118: votes for Glirdan - This may be important as a signal to why he died, though the seeming seer argument seems the stronger. It would not hurt to keep an eye on Glirdan.

Eonwe: (lynched)

He sees the ordo-lover as a cobbler type, and suggests that this person will probably lay low. Maybe, maybe not.

*****************

Who has been suspicious in voting?

Day 1:

Celuien and Glirdan were the middle voters for Garin.
Lalaith, Naria, & Formendacil bandwagoned for Guy, but Formendacil broke the double lynch tie.
Lhuna did a throw-away vote of the innocent Eonwe, leaving a double lynch tie in place.

Day 2:

Cailin, Kath, Lhuna, Valier, & Naria all joined Lalaith's bandwagon against the innocnet Eonwe.
************
Who has potentially shown their innocence by their voting?

Samwise & Caran voted for Lhuna.
************
Who has potentially shown their innocence by sound reasoning and helpful posts?

Caran and tar-ancalime, on on this new Day 3, Cailín, whom I no longer suspect strongly.
*********
Who (not a known innocent) has voted for (now) known innocents?

Day 1
Celuien
Glirdan
Farael
Caran - but voted for Lhuna on Day 2
Samwise - but voted for Lhuna on Day 2

Day 2
Lalaith
Cailín
Kath
Lhuna
Valier
Naria

more to come......

[littlemanpoet]

Who did Spawn defend, suspect, & accuse on Day 1?

a. Defend: in #30 does NOT defend Cailíin so much as say Sam's accusation of Cailín doesn't have much substance.

b. Suspect:
- in #30 she mentions Cailín's early vote as suspicious to due randomness which can be a werewolf cover.
- in #124 she feels funny about Kath's vote for Eomer

c. Accuse: Eonwe because his voting reasons were a bit too weird.

Who did Spawn defend, suspect, & accuse on Day 2?

a. defend:
- in #151mildly questions and defends Glirdan as a werewolf who thought Ang was seer, but thinks he's just been playing his normal game.
- in #166 says she's not suspicious of Naria.
- in #199 she takes Eonwe to task:

I won't vote for you again toDay because to me there are better lynching candidates, too, but you're not being very helpful, if I may say that.

Now, what's interesting about this is that she says that she will not vote for Eonwe because there are better lynching candidates, meaning others of whom she is more suspicious. Hence, it's a reasonable conclusion that she did not dream of Eonwe, at all; if she had, there's not way she would say this because of the trail it would leave once she was dead. I just hope the other seer's as careful as she seems to have been.
- in #212 defends Samwise as having saved the village from a possible double lynch, which she has already pointed out Lhuna could have done and didn't.

b. suspect:
- in #164 she suggests closer examination of the Lhuna issue; comments on Lhuna's changed play, more insecure and apologetic.

Villagers whose actions are decorated with apologies are creeping me out.

Translation: they are acting wolvish ... like Lhuna.
- in #164 she observes that Formendacil has made a tie 12 minutes before the deadline.
- in #166 she concludes by saying that maybe she's suspicious of Naria anyway, more or less wiping out her defense of Naria earlier in that post; safe to say that Spawn most likely didn't dream of Naria and wanted to make sure in case of her murder that no-one thought she had.
- in #193 she retorts to Lhuna:

I don't think our votes can be ragarded as helpful when talking about saving Garin.

- in #207:

Maybe Kath is a wolf. Maybe Lalaith and Cailín are wolves who did set her up. Maybe I'll change the subject before I get myself confused.

As seer, she seems to want to be careful here, basically saying that she's not sure about any of these three, suggesting that she had not dreamed of them by this time.

c. accuse:
- in #164 Spawn notes Lhuna's strange comment about fearing Ang was a seer and says,

A wolvish confession?

Right now your actions feel rather wolvish, young missy.

- in #212 she straight up accuses Lhuna and votes for her.

I could buy it that you're stubborn enough to vote the one you want to even if there's a tie, but that doesn't match with your new, more apologetic behaviour.

Here again Spawn is pointing out the disconnect between Lhuna's odd apologetic behavior and the supposed stubborness she claims. What's interesting about this is that by this point it seems like Spawn is trying to point at Lhuna so that nobody will miss her meaning. Which means that she strongly wants Lhuna lynched; this makes it pretty obvious that she has dreamed that Lhuna is a werewolf.

What are the facts of the case that we did not know at the outset?

Fact: Spawn was one of our seers.

Fact: On Day 1 Spawn voted for Eonwe on Day 1

Fact: On Day 2 Spawn said that she didn't think Eonwe was a werewolf.

Fact: On Day 2 Spawn accused and voted for Lhuna.

Fact: I haven't been able to isolate any hints as to whom she dreamed of that was innocent. It's pretty obvious to me that she must have dreamed of Lhuna; which Night, who knows? I doubt we can come to a safe conclusion as to which Night, not that it matters a whole lot.

[littlemanpoet]

Who has sown confusion?

Eomer, Guy, & Farael.

Two points to cover the three of them:

1. This whole Kath business seems like a tempest in a teapot to me, garnering far more attention than it deserves. Of course, Kath is as worthy of having an eye kept on as any other, but not as a distration away from the more obvious candidates; like Lhuna.

2. Related, is the preposterous notion that Spawn dreamt of Eonwe instead of Lhuna and that her pointing at Lhuna on Day 2 is somehow ambiguous. That is tripe. Nonsense. Distracting garbage. Makes me suspect Guy.

Obviously, this means I've changed my tune somewhat on Eomer. Well, so it is. Seems to me a lot of hot air is being wasted on Kath, although I do think Eomer may be on to something regarding Farael, I'm just not sure.

Well, I'm half way through page 9 and have a lot of reading to do. At least with these posts I'll know where I added my info.

[littlemanpoet]

I hope it's been rejected by now, but if it hasn't, it should be.

Guy admits that its motivation is to root out the lovers. However, it has been generally agreed by the more helpful villagers who don't call themselves werewolves, that by going after the werewolves, the lovers will be defeated.

So stop it, Guy, or else we're going to have to lynch you as a primary suspect for werewolvery.

[Naria]

Well, that took way too long to read everything that has happened toDay. And I must confess that I am even more confused about what to do. I do agree that we should do a double lynch for toDay(taking note that this does not have to happen every Day). I don't agree with Shorty's 'Plan'! Killing off all of the male ww's would only ensure the females ww survival. And yes I do believe that there could very well be all female werewolves, so pegging off all of the males would definitely not be wise(so the females can hide?). It could also be the other way around and there could be all male ww's--at any rate the 'Plan' should not happen.

Now Shorty, I couldn't help noticing that you are not leaving ww signs anymore, why is that?

Farael is acting a bit weird I must say, but I really don't think him coming out with guns-a-blazin is out of the 'norm' for him--he has acted in much the same way in other such scenarios. He's making some sense and at the very least I am not confused by his posts too much.

I have to admit that Kath was not on my suspicous list until toDay. There have been some 'damning' posts made by some and I find myself agreeing with certain parts(the parts that don't confuse me). She also seems to be digging herself into a deeper hole everytime she posts, making weak attempts to defend herself. hmmm

About Lhuna, my suspicion of her started yesterday, not because of the tie vote thingy, but because she doesn't seem to be Lhuna. Her posts have not been all that insightful like they normally are and yes she does have timezone problems, as do I, but she hasn't managed to get on yet and post some kind of defence, something that I'd like to think that she would have definatley managed to do by now. Or maybe she has and saw how many votes she has and figured why bother. At any rate I have some time to spare before I vote toDay so I will wait and see if she comes on and what she has to say.

All in all, I have to truthfully say that I am torn between these two--I just don't know right now--I'll wait a bit and see if anything else happens.


'

[tar-ancalime]

from lmp, regarding Day 1:

Lhuna did a throw-away vote of the innocent Eonwe, leaving a double lynch tie in place.

No, Lhuna voted for Lalaith, not Eonwe.

[Lhunardawen]

Hmm. Okay, so I see that the primary reason I'm up for the lynch toDay is that from carry-over Day 1 events spawn attacked me after agreeing with me over something that previous Day, and her suspicion was supported by other villagers. In the end she decided to vote for me. Then last Night the wolves killed her, she is found out to be a Seeriff, and that will obviously implicate me.

Hmm...let's see. You say the Seeriffs decided to dream about me, found me to be a wolf, and using dancing spawn as the sacrificial Seeriff alerted the village to my lycanthropy. I guess this would explain her sudeen 180-degree turn on me.

Yes, we all know that dancing spawn is a very good and experienced player, and as a Seer - well, she is definitely a great asset to our village. Now, knowing that there are four wolves against just two Seeriffs, and NO Ranger in this village...why would they take the risk of sacrificing a particularly helpful villager just to help the village catch a single wolf, leaving only one Seeriff to fend off for him/herself against three wolves? That's tantamount to her actually revealing herself outright. We would expect them to be more careful.

With that said, it is very probable that the Seeriffs had no wolf dreams as yet, and she just pursued her suspicions of me after someone presented the idea. Apparently the wolves took advantage of this to frame an innocent, which they have now successfully done. For which I must commend them. We obviously have very smart wolves against us. And then, much to their surprise, she actually was a Seeriff! Added bonus to them.

As for tgwbs' plan...that's very silly. It's making me think that you are the sole male wolf, and the rest are females, so it would be okay for you to sacrifice yourself because you know that there will still be two female wolves left in the end - the other one being killed along with her lover.

More later. I have a lot to answer to, obviously.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by tar-ancalime

No, Lhuna voted for Lalaith, not Eonwe.

Oops, I read my notes wrong. It was Spawn who voted for Eonwe, and Lhuna's throw-away vote was for Lalaith, as you say. Sorry.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

As for tgwbs' plan...that's very silly. It's making me think that you are the sole male wolf, and the rest are females, so it would be okay for you to sacrifice yourself because you know that there will still be two female wolves left in the end - the other one being killed along with her lover.

Interesting. The rest of this werewolf's post is a lot of hot air signifying a wish to survive, but this one paragraph could maybe fall under the heading of "speaking as much truth as a werewolf can get away with". You see, it seems to me that Farael is playing his typical game and that he has his sites set (probalby wrongly) on Kath; but his observation about Guy's non-lover-wolvish desire to get rid of all the men seems rather suspicious. I wouldn't put it past Guy in the least to say "I'm a werewolf" and actually be one. This "we have to get the lovers" desperation lends credence to such a thought.

So if you really want to double lynch someone (there being 17 voters), there are 6 voters to go including me, and if all 6 vote Guy, there's a chance that we might have gotten two werewolves. Obviously, Kath already has 4 votes, and lynching her though in my opinion probably incorrect, will at least clear up that issue. By the way, Eomer's quick agreement to Guy's 'Plan' leads me to worry about him as the possible other werewolf.

[Caranlondien]

And I wish I hadn't voted already! While I definitely think a vote for Lhuna is well-spent, it seems like my vote for her wasn't necessary to ensure her lynching. LMP, I agree about TGWBS's suspicious behavior, and if you guys try to get him double-lynched, I'm with you (in spirit, at least, since I already voted )

[littlemanpoet]

Thanks, Caranlondien. We'll hope for the best. I'll be back in about 3 1/2 hours, which is suppose to give me one more hour to read whatever's been written and vote...... right, ModGod's Prophet?

[tar-ancalime]

Hey, lmp--

I don't trust tgwbs any farther than I can throw him, but I'm skeptical of the suspicion he's engendered today.

Farael is pursuing what looks like a grudge.

You and others seem to think that his y-chromosome double lynch plan is enough to send him to the gallows.

But I'd caution you in particular, lmp--think back to past villages. Has there ever been anyone who advanced complex and unworkable plan after complex and unworkable plan, only to be found innocent in the end?

Again, not saying he's innocent; just that I don't think the problems with his plan are reason enough to lynch him.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

Thanks, Caranlondien. We'll hope for the best. I'll be back in about 3 1/2 hours, which is suppose to give me one more hour to read whatever's been written and vote...... right, ModGod's Prophet?

He never said anything about being earlier or late, so ontime seems like a reasonable expectation.

Looking at the events over the last few hours since I've been online, I'm seeing one tread: more rational thought- which is definitely a good thing. Of course, it might just mean that TGWBS has gone to bed...

Speaking of TGWBS, I find it interesting, LMP, that you lump him together with Eomer and Farael as the main troublemakers. Not that I disagree with you on the fact that they have, by and large, stirred up the most confusion today, but considering that the three of them have held mostly opposing views, I wonder which of the three (assuming any of them) is the Werewolf?

After all, it seems highly unlikely to me that all three of the Werewolves would be drawing attention to themselves in such a way- especially since it seems that one of their own- Lhuna or Kath, since I'm not discounting Kath as a Werewolf- is on the voting block today. One, or even two, of them might try and make noise to distract the village- but not all three, surely! Since I consider Eomer and TGWBS the more likely of the three to be such audacious Werewolves, I'm willing to think Farael innocent for now. I somehow think that if he was a Werewolf, he'd be less noisy than he is as a Villager.

[littlemanpoet]

I realized that I can't count on werewolf Lhuna to help double lynch Guy if he's a werewolf, she being one of the six remaining voters, so:

++ Lhunardawen

We really need to get this werewolf lynched. That's seven votes. Five voters to go. Kath having 4 votes against her, let's see how these last five vote. I think it will tell us a lot.

tar, my reason for suspecting Guy for [u]this[/i] plan is because its motivation is self-confessedly to root out the lovers, which is more of a concern to the werewolves than to the innocents.

Formy, I only disagree with Farael because he's arguing forthrightly if wrongly in my opinion. Guy and Eomer, on the other hand, are foisting strange things that don't sit right. You, Formy, by the way, have defended Lhuna and voted for Kath, whose supposed guilt I think is a big distraction from the real werewolves. Farael has been caught up in it, which is a shame, but I think the werewolves are taking advantage of him and he'll look awfully guilty if/when Kath doesn't turn out to be a werewolf. I'm not saying that I have any set opinions on Kath, just that the case against her looks pretty trumped up. And as to her defense of herself and vote for Lhuna, she's in that precarious d'd if you do, d'd if you don't situation that my forebears have known all too well. That you Formy, and Eomer keep pointing at her worries me about you.

And just to reiterate some points I've made before:

I think tar-ancalime, Caranlondien, Thinlomien, Samwise, & Farael are probably innocent. I think that Gurthang & Cailín are probably not werewolves either. I'm not sure about Valier, Lalaith, Glirdan, Kath, Naria, & Celuien. I'm really suspicious of Formendacil, Eomer, & Guy. And I think Lhunardawen is so furry it must hurt.

[Farael]

Alright, there is not much more I can do here. Just a few parting comments before my vote.

*I am as certain as only the most insightful of ordos can be that Kath is a wolf.

*I am still not sold on this whole campaign of lynching Lhuna. I like LMP's idea of ridding ourselves of TGWBS, but is it possible to do him and Kath rather than him and Lhuna? if it is, I would strongly advise the village to do it. If it's not, let's rid ourselves of Kath first... and I might be swayed to lynch Lhuna if Kath turns out not to be a werewolf... but I am confident she will be.

*I think that Formen may be one of the lovers. I think Kath might be his loved one. He has been distancing himself from Kath yet not going straight at her neck.... He might be playing a dangerous game but it does not look likely that Kath will be lynched. I'd like to see how he reacts when Kath is in serious danger.

So I propose, let's Lynch Kath tonight and let Formen feel the bitter taste of defeat.

Formen, either you are a cunning lover or a cunning wolf. But you are too cunning for this village anyhow.

++Kath

And if any of you have an ounce of brain, you will follow myexample. You will see.

[Farael]

Cross posted with LMP

My friend, you are wise... wise yet misguided. Kath is a wolf and I know so for sure. Lhuna is more of a gray zone just now. We will probably know soon anyway.

Fellow villagers, I beseech you. I understand where the Lhuna voters are coming from, yet let me tell you, Kath is a werewolf for certain. Don't waste your votes on someone who may or may not turn furry.

[Valier]

Well since I may not have time later I will vote now.Since the vote is swaying towards Lhuna, I think a double lynch would be an eye opener today. So hoping others think the same way

++Kath

I don't think she is overly suspicious, but a vote for Lhuna now would be a waste.If neither is a wolf I appologize.I think tomorrow will hold more info.

Night to all! I hope we catch us two wolves today!

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

Formy, I only disagree with Farael because he's arguing forthrightly if wrongly in my opinion. Guy and Eomer, on the other hand, are foisting strange things that don't sit right. You, Formy, by the way, have defended Lhuna and voted for Kath, whose supposed guilt I think is a big distraction from the real werewolves. Farael has been caught up in it, which is a shame, but I think the werewolves are taking advantage of him and he'll look awfully guilty if/when Kath doesn't turn out to be a werewolf. I'm not saying that I have any set opinions on Kath, just that the case against her looks pretty trumped up. And as to her defense of herself and vote for Lhuna, she's in that precarious d'd if you do, d'd if you don't situation that my forebears have known all too well. That you Formy, and Eomer keep pointing at her worries me about you.

Fair enough...

Let's just wait and see. It's possible, you know, that Kath is a Werewolf. How about we wait until she's dead (assuming that she dies before Game Over) before declaring me guilty on that basis. I still have a lot of qualms about Miss Kath.

Originally Posted by LMP

I think tar-ancalime, Caranlondien, Thinlomien, Samwise, & Farael are probably innocent. I think that Gurthang & Cailín are probably not werewolves either. I'm not sure about Valier, Lalaith, Glirdan, Kath, Naria, & Celuien. I'm really suspicious of Formendacil, Eomer, & Guy. And I think Lhunardawen is so furry it must hurt.

How nice! I've replaced Farael as the last partner of your Eomer/TGWBS triad. I'm so honoured.

Much though I'd like to, LMP, I'm afraid that I can't think you a Wolf at the moment, merely a misguided fellow Villager. However, let's wait and see what happens. One could easily "mis"construe your for for Lhunardawen as a Male Werewolf Lover making sure that his lover Kath is put well out harm's way.

Not that I believe it to be that way- at the moment- but your vote does have a certain feel of... being tacked on. Like a Werewolf who's waited until he's sure which way the wind is blowing before joining the bandwaggon.

We'll see indeed.

[Valier]

Originally Posted by Farael

Kath is a werewolf for certain

Are you certain,certain? and if so how?

[Caranlondien]

1. Thinlomien --> Lhuna (Lhuna 1)
2. TGWBS --> Farael (Lhuna 1 – Farael 1)
3. Formendacil --> Kath (Lhuna 1 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
4. Eomer --> Lhuna (Lhuna 2 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
5. Lalaith --> Lhuna (Lhuna 3 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
6. Samwise --> Lhuna (Lhuna 4 – Farael 1 – Kath 1)
7. Celuien --> Kath (Lhuna 4 – Farael 1 – Kath 2)
8. Kath --> Lhuna (Lhuna 5 – Farael 1 – Kath 2)
9. Caranlondien --> Lhuna (Lhuna 6 – Farael 1 – Kath 2)
10. Tar-Ancalime --> Kath (Lhuna 6 – Farael 1 – Kath 3)
11. Glirdan --> Kath (Lhuna 6 – Farael 1 – Kath 4)
12. LMP --> Lhuna (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 4)
13. Farael --> Kath (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 5)
14. Valier --> Kath (Lhuna 7 – Farael 1 – Kath 6)

I just can't help myself; I'm a big fan of lists

EDIT: And I always make mistakes...

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Farael

*I think that Formen may be one of the lovers. I think Kath might be his loved one. He has been distancing himself from Kath yet not going straight at her neck.... He might be playing a dangerous game but it does not look likely that Kath will be lynched. I'd like to see how he reacts when Kath is in serious danger.

I can promise you, Farael that I'm not. The fact that I shall not die when Kath does- tonight, tomorrow, or whenever, should probably be proof enough for you.

So I propose, let's Lynch Kath tonight and let Formen feel the bitter taste of defeat.

I think you have your words mixed up... It's "victory" you're looking for, not "defeat".

Formen, either you are a cunning lover or a cunning wolf. But you are too cunning for this village anyhow.

I'm honoured. So it's impossible to be cunning and helpful at the same time? Such a pity... Guess I'll have to give up trying to be helpful.

[Gurthang]

I suddenly have a bad feeling. That kind of feeling like you're about to lynch your Seer.

Voting:
Lhuna - 7
Kath - 6
Farael - 1

Left to vote: Me, Lhuna, Naria, and Cailín

I don't think we should lynch TGWBS just yet. I doubt a wolf would put himself in the position he has. Still, one can never be sure until death clears all doubt.

I need to go check what spawn said about Kath. I'll be back to vote.

[Gurthang]

Spawn, with regards to Kath:

Day 1:
post #124:

Originally Posted by dancing spawn of ungoliant

Kath's vote seems somewhat weird.

As she admits, she repeats almost exactly the same words as tar-a in her past life. That reasoning got her in a bit of trouble then, but she turned out to be an innocent. Something in Kath's voting feels funny especially because if Eomer is innocent, it's good to keep him around.

Day 2:
post #151:

Mentions that Anguirel mentioned Kath. This post actually speaks more against Glirdan than anyone.

post #193:

Comments that Kath did post before Anguirel's initial post about her.

post #207:

Says [seemingly in jest] that maybe Kath is a wolf. I wouldn't take this seriously, since it was mostly made for sarcastic effect (if I read it right at all).


And that's it. That leaves me with almost no suspicion of Kath, because I had thought spawn had talked about her more and is not the case. This makes me much more suspicious of Farael, who continually claimed that spawn indicated Kath numerous times.

Actually, after glancing through all spawn's posts, Glirdan's name popped out more than Kath's did. I don't know if he was the one that she mentioned most, but his name just stuck out to me. Could be worth looking into.

And now, here is my dilemna. I don't suspect Kath anymore, which means that I'm not too keen on voting for her. Yet at the same time, I don't want to end up with everyone talking about Kath tomorrow. I know it sounds vicious, but I almost want to stop all that wasted breath now. So, what should I do? Anybody out there who wants to give advice is welcome.

Hopefully, I won't even have to make that call, since I'm almost split on it. I'll have to wait and see how the rest of the poeple who are left vote.

[Naria]

So, we have a stand-off then Gurthang!

[tar-ancalime]

And now, here is my dilemna. I don't suspect Kath anymore, which means that I'm not too keen on voting for her. Yet at the same time, I don't want to end up with everyone talking about Kath tomorrow. I know it sounds vicious, but I almost want to stop all that wasted breath now. So, what should I do? Anybody out there who wants to give advice is welcome.

Well, that's why I voted for her. I've always felt that, especially early in a game when the village is likely to be lynching innocents, the best vote is the expedient one. We really need to start talking about some other villagers here, and the longer Kath and Lhuna stay alive the longer we're going to be wasting time talking about them. If we don't lynch them both, we're going to spend a lot of time tomorrow talking about why we didn't, and rehashing the arguments for and against lynching the one who remains alive. If we lynch them both and they're innocent, sure, we'll be talking about it, but at least the conversation will be focused on the people who made it happen instead of on these two.