Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIX: Ang Sagang Daga, bow.

[Caranlondien]

1. Eonwe --> Valier (Valier 1)
2. dancing spawn --> Lhuna (Valier 1, Lhuna 1)
3. TGWBS --> Eomer (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1)
4. Lalaith --> Eonwe (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 1)
5. Eomer --> Kath (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 1, Kath 1)
6. Glirdan --> Naria (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 1, Kath 1, Naria 1)
7. Thinlomien --> Naria (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 1, Kath 1, Naria 2)
8. Cailin --> Eonwe (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 1, Eonwe 2, Kath 1, Naria 2)
9. tar-ancalime --> Eomer (Valier 1, Lhuna 1, Eomer 2, Eonwe 2, Kath 1, Naria 2)
10. Samwise --> Lhuna (Valier 1, Lhuna 2, Eomer 2, Eonwe 2, Kath 1, Naria 2)
11. Kath --> Eonwe (Valier 1, Lhuna 2, Eomer 2, Eonwe 3, Kath 1, Naria 2)
12. Lhuna --> Eonwe (Valier 1, Lhuna 2, Eomer 2, Eonwe 4, Kath 1, Naria 2)
13. Celuien --> Samwise (Valier 1, Lhuna 2, Eomer 2, Eonwe 4, Kath 1, Naria 2, Samwise 1)
14. LMP --> Lhuna (Valier 1, Lhuna 3, Eomer 2, Eonwe 4, Kath 1, Naria 2, Samwise 1)
15. Valier --> Eonwe (Valier 1, Lhuna 3, Eomer 2, Eonwe 5, Kath 1, Naria 2, Samwise 1)
16. Naria --> Eonwe (Valier 1, Lhuna 3, Eomer 2, Eonwe 6, Kath 1, Naria 2, Samwise 1)

I'm certainly not in favor of a double lynch, and I hope those who vote after me will not bring one about. I still think Eonwe is an unlikely wolf (let's face it, if he were a wolf, he'd be more interested), but Lhuna seems somewhat suspicious. And I'd rather have an unhelpful ordo alive than a wolf, so I just can't justify voting for Eonwe merely for his annoying vote.

There are just enough votes left to lynch Lhuna, correct? Hmm I guess that places me in a suspicious position, but... I'm acting based one what I honestly think.

++Lhunardawen

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

The village decided that Eonwe's antics was much too confusing for a village infested with Werewolves, and so they decided to kill the newcomer toDAY.

'So, how do we kill him?' asked Lhunardawen. Thunder rumbled. A few of the villagers looked up. Dark clouds were gathering in the mountaintop.

'I say we leave him up there in the mountain,' Glirdan suggested. 'If lightning strikes him, then he must be a Werewolf being punished by the Mod God.' The others nodded assent.

Caranlondien took her axe, tar-ancalime her broom, Eomer his clarinet, lmp his heavy hammer, and together they prodded the poor wayfaring stranger to the foot of the mountain.

The clouds have left the mountain, and now they approached Eonwe.

'He'll be struck by lightning!' Valier said anxiously. 'We found our first Werewolf!'

The clouds were now exactly overhead the lynchee. The lightnings struck the ground once, twice, many times, until finally, the Mod God tired of playing with the victim and sent a bolt at him.

After the shock, Eonwe still managed to stagger to the ground.

'He's going to transform now!' said lmp. 'Stand back, everybody!'

But he didn't.

'I'm okay,' he said. 'Can anyone get me a glass of water?'

The Mod God frowned. He had not killed the lynch victim on his first attempt. He sent another bolt, this time a stronger one.

After the second strike nothing was left of Eonwe but dust and ashes.

The scroll of the census was changed:

Nilpaurion Felagund, the Prophet of the Mod God, was lynched by suspicious means on the first NIGHT.
Garin, an Ordinary Villager, was lanced like a boil on the the first DAY.
Anguirel, an Ordinary Villager, was massacred by were-hedgehogs on the second NIGHT.
Eonwe, an Ordinary Villager, was struck by lightning, struck by lightning! on the second DAY.

Those alive are:

dancing spawn of ungoliant, a laundress
Kath, a turtle-farmer
Lhunardawen, a Dark Elf (literally)
Caranlondien, a lumberjack
tar-ancalime, a witch
Cailín, the town gossip
Celuien, a psychiatrist
Naria, a midwife who goes ever so slightly mad with each birth
Valier, a small, sweet sheep-shearer
Lalaith, a rich young widow
Thinlómien, a mushroom-picker
Formendacil, an unemployed person
littlemanpoet, a stone-cutter
Glirdan, an unemployed person
Farael, an escaped mental asylum internee who suffers from chronic suicidal tendency and conspiracy theories
Eomer of the Rohirrim, the royal musician
Gurthang, an arrowsmith
the guy who be short, a Nilp fan, stalker and impersonator, also a fisherman
SamwiseGamgee, the town bank manager

[Formendacil]

So Eonwe and Lhuna are the frontrunners of the night, are they?

Regretably, I don't think that either of them are guilty. Lhuna seems normal to me- thus far- although I will grant that there are reasons for suspicion.

Eonwe, on the other hand, has been nothing but unhelpful. However, I'd call him innocent- the Gil-galad of the game, so to speak. That said, however, I'd almost just as soon lynch as useless person for being useless. Best to get the confusion out of the way as soon as possible.

Kath is another one who was under a great deal of scrutiny earlier today, but who seems to have eased suspicions over the course of the day- or else more rational minds have discounted them as unlikely. All the same, the accusations of flip-flopping seem to ring true, and they give me cause to worry...

Naria, Eomer, Samwise, and Valier have all also received votes today, but for the moment I'm willing to leave them be. There may well be a Werewolf or two lurking in this group, but I don't think there's evidence enough yet to convict any of them.

With the uncertainty of the changed deadline being what it is, and needing to get to bed a bit earlier than I did last night, I think I'd be wise to vote now. Of the three candidates who've been voted for, and who I'm worried about, I think Kath the most suspicious.

Therefore,

++ Kath

EDIT: X-posted with Nilp. Sorry about that. Thought I had more time...

[Gurthang]

Well, just got in. I doubt I'll be able to get through all that's been said since I left, since it's about a hundred posts worth. I'll read what I can before voting.

From what I've seen so far, spawn seemed to have a good case against Lhuna, and LMP's vote yesterday still doesn't sit right with me. I'll have to see what I can scrounge up before Day ends.

[Gurthang]

Well, after reading a little, Farael is starting to catch my eye. Not just a few are suspecting him. Here's something that stuck out to me.

Originally Posted by Farael

The wolves have been smart… Anguirel was a safe kill for them as not only it would implicate me into it, but it would also give enough circumstantial evidence for Kath to argue that it was an obvious set-up and thus she could not possibly be wolfish. Some villagers have already voiced that proposition and I shall suspect you all for it. While it’s not enough evidence to indict Kath, I think that if she were a wolf, she’d be very interested in killing Ang last night. If he was a seer, she could point out that he accused many people. If he was innocent (as he turned out to be) and left to live, he could have kept on being random and watering down the “too obvious of a setup” argument. If he had kept on accusing people with strong words, no-one could have said that his death implicated him too obviously…. As it’d implicate half the village as well.

Just seems to know too much how the wolves are acting. It's being spoken as fact, rather than hypothesis, which I don't like.

Kath seems to be handling suspicion calmly. Not necessarily an automatic innocent label, but it speaks in her favor.

[Gurthang]

Just got finished with the next page. Cailin's doing some good analysis, although I'm not seeing a lot of conclusions being drawn with all those words.

As SamwiseGamgee has already pointed out, Glirdan tries to make a case against me (post #235), yet misquoted at least once. I know it was Formendacil who said one of the quotes, and I don't remember typing the other (could be wrong, though ). Not good when facts don't line up.

I'll vote soon.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Somewhere in the Philippines, Louis Ortal slumped in his desk.

'Oh, dear.' He sighed. 'Of all the persons to kill she had to be the NIGHT's target.' He sighed again. 'Oh, well. At least I'll prove myself to be a better protector than Formendacil.'

And so he went to the keyboard, and typed up the NIGHT's 'death.'

~*~

The four Werewolves converged on a hut near the outskirts of the village. They were looking around, looking for anyone who might see them. The coast was clear; unlike most villages, Ened-in-Nowhere had neither a Ranger nor a Hunter. One of the Werewolves kicked the door to the hut. The rotten board was smashed to pieces. The fiends went in to assassinate their NIGHT's target.

She was sleeping on her couch when the door to her hut was broken. She rose from her slumber and shot a look at the doorway. Four monstrous creatures stood there. She had no chance, even if she had a proper weapon. She rushed to the corner of her room and raised her fists to face her attackers.

Suddenly a bright light illumed the hut. Before her stood a figure robed in dazzling white. In his right hand was a flaming brand. His eyes burned as he stared at the beasts.

'You shall not take this life!' he commanded. 'Nay, neither shall you pluck out her eyes, as is customary to do with her kind.'

Turning to the woman, he said, 'Take my hand.' She took it, and together they went heavenward.

The next DAY, no trace was seen of dancing spawn of ungoliant.

The scroll of the census was changed:

Nilpaurion Felagund, the Prophet of the Mod God, was lynched by suspicious means on the first NIGHT.
Garin, an Ordinary Villager, was lanced like a boil on the the first DAY.
Anguirel, an Ordinary Villager, was massacred by were-hedgehogs on the second NIGHT.
Eonwe, an Ordinary Villager, was struck by lightning, struck by lightning! on the second DAY.
dancing spawn of ungoliant, a Seer, was taken away on the third NIGHT.

Those alive are:

Kath, a turtle-farmer
Lhunardawen, a Dark Elf (literally)
Caranlondien, a lumberjack
tar-ancalime, a witch
Cailín, the town gossip
Celuien, a psychiatrist
Naria, a midwife who goes ever so slightly mad with each birth
Valier, a small, sweet sheep-shearer
Lalaith, a rich young widow
Thinlómien, a mushroom-picker
Formendacil, an unemployed person
littlemanpoet, a stone-cutter
Glirdan, an unemployed person
Farael, an escaped mental asylum internee who suffers from chronic suicidal tendency and conspiracy theories
Eomer of the Rohirrim, the royal musician
Gurthang, an arrowsmith
the guy who be short, a Nilp fan, stalker and impersonator, also a fisherman
SamwiseGamgee, the town bank manager

[Farael]

I was fearing that... I guess we are a seer down, luckly we've got two. Alright, I guess it was expected for Spawn to be something other than an ordo... and she didn't seem too wolfish, I see she was not. I'll quickly go through her posts, but keep in mind that the timezones ailment that seems to bother most of this village is against me at this hour (aka, it's 3 AM over here)

Which reminds me, sorry for my no-vote yesterday, but I did not realize that the voting would be over so soon.

[Cailín]

Oh no. Spawn was taken from us. At least she did not suffer.

Spawn was not too vocal yesterday - I quickly scanned her posts and this certainly does look bad for Lhuna. I'm not sure whether she and her fellow Seer dreamed about her, but Spawn seemed quite certain of Lhuna's guilt. Add to that that Lhuna did little to make herself less suspicious - though I was still quite convinced of her innocence when I voted yesterDay - and many people were in favour of lynching her before, she seems a likely candidate toDay.

The other Seer must lay low now and I'd advise all my fellow villagers to not speculate who s/he might be.

I shall go over yesterDay's voting after breakfast.

[Thinlómien]

A seer dead. Not very good for the village.

Not very good for the village, if we think about this: two days played, two innocents lynched. One innocent killed and one of our seers killed by wolves. The wolves must be laughing by themselves.

I know we have a big village and lots of people, so it isn't a miracle that we haven't been able to catch a wolf in two days. But anyway, now it's the third day and I presume everybody agrees with me, that today a wolf should be hanged.

I think one of the biggest problems of this village is that we don't work together. We're divided in several factions disputing with each other and it's always only by one or two votes majority that an innocent is lynched.

Now, I'm not saying that we shouldn't have different opinions or different suspects. I'm just saying that we villagers communicate with each other quite fruitlessly and there should be a change.

edit: xed with Cailín

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Naria

I want you to answer my question this time, please Thinlo. WHY AM I SO SCARY?? I remember asking the very same in a past village we were in and didn't get a response.

This time you're scary, because you're silent. That makes me uneasy.

Originally Posted by Naria

However, I don't know where you got the 'rudely' part from.

I seem to be good at giving people wrong impressions. The "rudely" wasn't about your posts; it was like: "To say it rudely, she posts nonsense." I'm sorry if my unfluent English causes confusion.

I looked quickly through spawn's posts. Lhuna was the only one she really expressed being suspicious about.

[the guy who be short]

I don't trust any of you.

I promise an analysis of spawn in a few hours. Anybody else wishing to analyse her, feel free. Remember, the more people we get looking over what she's said, the more chance we have innocents analysing her, the greater the chance we can trust what we can read. Ideally, we'd have six analyses to guarantee one innocent in there, but this is a bit much to ask.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

'If anyone's interested,' said the Mod, 'I have inserted a proper death scene for Eonwe.'

There was a deep, vast silence.

'Okay, get back to playing.'

[tar-ancalime]

You know, this is just off the top of my head here, but spawn may have been killed in a wolves' attempt to re-even out the balance of sexes:

We went into last Night with three dead men, leaving eleven women and only eight men alive. Now, yesterday Cailin suggested that we systematically lynch men, unbalancing the village enough to make it easier to pick out one of the Lovers. I countered that by saying it was an interesting strategy but likely too early, as the village is still very large.

It could be that the wolves disagreed with me and decided to even things back out. Why? I think the wolves already know who the traitor is among them. I think they're going to let that person live for a while, though, because as long as there are Lovers there is an added element of confusion among the villagers. Having the Lovers alive at this stage of the game helps the wolves; and if they know which of their own is against them, it will be easy enough for them to kill that person off when it becomes necessary. They'll eliminate their internal threat and take down another villager to boot. I propose that we will see this happen when the village finally lynches a wolf. Until then, though, the wolves' safety is enhanced by keeping the Lovers alive. And in the meantime, keeping a more balanced village population lessens our chances of isolating one or both of the Lovers in a shrinking pool of candidates.

spawn was under no real suspicion; she was writing lucid, smart posts; maybe they had pegged her as a Seer to boot; but I think she was killed for being a smart girl.

Or maybe it's simpler--I freely admit I haven't taken the time yet to look at spawn's posts yet. I will do it, and with the question in mind that I proposed yesterday for all wolf kills in this game: What did she get right?

[Cailín]

I think one of the biggest problems of this village is that we don't work together. We're divided in several factions disputing with each other and it's always only by one or two votes majority that an innocent is lynched.

I do agree with this, Thinlomien. Hopefully, with a few less villagers communicating may become a bit easier.

But what if you're a werewolf, Cailin? And what if your fellow werewolves are all female? Just a what-if. Did you not see the wisdom in going after the werewolves in order to get rid of the Lovers? Or are you trying to distract the villagers' attention from this most sensible villager strategy? And if so, why?

I was the first to propose such a sensible strategy. However, I was under the impression that Nilp would have ensured a wolf team consisting of as many males as females. Ergo, the chance of finding a wolf would be much higher when lynching a suspicious male than a suspicious female.

That might be a bit presumptuous, I admit, I'm thinking too much about what I would have done were I the Mod of this game.

Cailin keeps defending Lhuna. Either she is guileless or desperately trying to keep her fellow werewolf from the gallows. Somehow guileless and Cailin don't seem to fit well in the same sentence.

You have the truth there, littlemanpoet, I cannot honestly claim to be an artless person. However, you missed another option. At that point in the game, I saw no reason to find Lhuna any more suspicious than anyone else.

But now things are different. Lhuna's vote for Lalaith never seemed incriminating to me. Neither did it seem so to Dancing Spawn at first, as Lhuna pointed out herself yesterDay. At the start of Day 2 however, Spawn seemed to be making a 180-degree turn, blaming Lhuna for her non-committing vote. This smells like a Seer trying to subtly point out a wolf to the rest of the village. I am not 100% certain, but I find it extremely likely the Seers chose to dream of Lhunardawen that Night and Spawn made it her objective to alert the village. Any other thoughts?

[Cailín]

spawn was under no real suspicion; she was writing lucid, smart posts; maybe they had pegged her as a Seer to boot; but I think she was killed for being a smart girl.

This seems more likely than the wolves trying to balance the sexes. They seem to have no reason to let the Lover live that long: they're with four and can afford a loss.

However, I somehow do believe they saw a Seer in Spawn. See my previous post.

[Farael]

Given my limited time, I’ll go through her posts and see who she defends, who she accuses and how strongly she does. I think it’s fair to guess that if she defends/accuses someone strongly, it might be someone she’s dreamt about. Remember that there are two “seer/sheriff”s so we have four people dreamt of so far. Two on day 1 and two on day 2 (I think)
Day 1

Post 7
Her first post. Makes a few “in character” comments and then answers a few things that have been said before her. Nothing too remarkable.

Post 17
Answers more concerns… nothing I can see as a hint of having found a wolf or an ordo.

Post 30
Defends Valier and Cailin.

Post 124 (there was another post before that but it was just a comment that she was around and she’d be back after she caught up with all that had happened)… (and sigh, she commented on everyone. Ok, here we go… I won’t add her comments on the dead ones)

Disregards Cailin’s and TGWBS’s vote as it’s based in occupations

Finds Lailath’s vote somewhat suspicious

Finds Kath’s vote somewhat weird.

Thinks that Tar-a’s vote was well reasoned, although she disagrees with her.

Does not find Celuien’s vote suspicious

Finds LMP’s vote disconcerting but not exactly suspicious

Thinks Glirdan has not been far too out of his normal self, but expresses some concern over his vote.

Thinks I’m acting as expected, although she disagrees with what I think

Thinks that Naria is also being her usual self, although Spawn doesn’t like her vote

Thinks that Caranlondien is not suspicious

Does not like Valier’s vote but thinks that she cannot tell much from it.

Post 128

Thinks that Lhuna is making sense, votes for Eonwe (but obviously, she has not dreamt of him as we know he’s not a wolf.

Post 129
Jokes about SamwiseGamgee making a wolfish slip-up

Post 132
Jokes around with Formen.

End of the day, my thoughts so far:

The seers did not find a wolf on Day 1. Spawn voted for a (now) known innocent and did not leave anything I could find as a ‘hint’ of someone being a wolf. It’s logical, after all, as odds were against the seers finding a wolf on their first dream. Also, I think Spawn was likely to dream of someone she’s suspected, so I will not comment on the “possible innocents” as she’s not likely to have dreamt of them (Lhuna will be an exception as Spawn’s vote for her needs to be explained one way or another)

For possible wolves:
Lailath
Kath


For possible innocents:
Valier
Cailin
Lhuna

Day 2
Post 151
(Goes through Anguirel’s posts, I won’t comment on that but on her thoughts about other villagers)

Thinks that we should not disregard our suspicions of Kath after the night’s death.

Mildly defends Glirdan

Post 164
Thinks that the “Lhuna issue” should be looked after more closely

Questions and accuses Lhuna quite strongly

Post 166
Analyzes Naria, Seems to think that Naria is innocent first, but then says that “a horrible thought just occurred her” and that Naria might not be as innocent as she thought.

Post 175
Explains Thinlomien that Naria did not slip up on something she said.

Post 193
Still argues that we should not get our minds off Kath

Defends Naria again against accusations of a slip up

Then she answers something Lhuna said, but I’m not sure what she means.

Post 199
Tells Eonwe to explain more her thought process

Wants to hear more from Naria

Post 207
Again comments that we should not get our sights off Kath

Post 212
Votes for Lhuna based on a comment made by her (Lhuna) and the arguments made by other villagers.

End of day

Ok, my thoughts…. I think that Spawn has dreamt of a wolf, but not the obvious one. In Day 1 it did not seem as if Spawn suspected Lhuna at all…. And why would she dream of her if she did not suspect her? She had voiced concerns about Kath and Lailath more loudly than the rest… and then, on day two we find that Spawn keeps on reminding us not to write off Kath as innocent just yet.

Call me crazy, but that all-but confirms my suspicions of Kath being a wolf. Think about it. Anguirel made a joking remark about Kath that was misinterpreted as a seer comment (aided by other things he said) and he was killed…. It’s only logical that a seer Spawn would be MUCH more careful. I think that she was hinting at what she knew in a way that would reveal itself if she died. Well, she’s dead now, and I think it’s time to read behind the lines.

Lhuna was not a likely dream suspect, and given that there are 4 wolves, there are still plenty of villagers and another seer, it’s (very) likely that Spawn did not want to risk voting for a wolf and blowing up her cover so soon… and thus she voted for her most likely to be a wolf unknown.

Now, I’m not saying that Lhuna is NOT a wolf for sure… all I’m saying is that Spawn probably did not dream of her on Night 2 and it sure looks as if she was pointing at Kath very subtly, yet very consistently.

Ok, that’s all I have for now…. I think that Kath is a wolf and I shall vote for her today. I ask of you fellow villagers, go through Spawns posts by yourself and tell me if I’m wrong…. I’m sure you will agree

P.S: That was not a seer hint or anything like that.... it was just the confindence that comes from a well done reasoning.

[tar-ancalime]

from Cailin:

I find it extremely likely the Seers chose to dream of Lhunardawen that Night and Spawn made it her objective to alert the village. Any other thoughts?

Interesting idea. Are you saying that the Seers decided spawn should "alert the village," even to the point of sacrificing herself? Because I agree with you that spawn's pursuit of Lhuna yesterday looks like a Seer in the know trying to persuade us. However, I'd discounted that out of hand because, well, it looks a little too much like a Seer in the know trying to persuade us. I would have imagined spawn to be more subtle than that. But there it is--spawn is dead, Lhuna is alive, we still have a Seer, and as for my previous post, I did say it was a crackpot theory. It may be that the simplest solution is the best. Lhuna? Care to convince us otherwise?

I still think there may be something, even a tiny nugget of something, in my crackpot theory--I really think the wolves (a) know who the Lover wolf is, and (b) think it's expedient at this point to keep the Lovers alive...for a while. They're in no danger yet, and as long as we villagers are talking about Lovers they've got conversations in which to hide.

[tar-ancalime]

from Farael:

Remember that there are two “seer/sheriff”s so we have four people dreamt of so far. Two on day 1 and two on day 2 (I think)

No, the Seers were in communication with each other, but they chose one person to dream about each Night. That means we don't have double the amount of dreams, but tthe dreams spawn already had are not lost with her death.

You are very sure that spawn did not dream of Lhuna. I'm not sure I follow your logic here--even if I concede the point that spawn thought Lhuna was innocent (which I'm not ready to do, in addition to the fact that we don't know what the other Seer thought at the time), it can be just as important for Seers to build up a list of proven innocents as to target wolves. We don't know what the Seers' strategy was, nor what it will be now that there is only one left.

[Cailín]

Farael... how do you explain this if Spawn did not dream of Lhuna:

Thinks that Lhuna is making sense,

Thinks that the “Lhuna issue” should be looked after more closely

Questions and accuses Lhuna quite strongly

You may have a point with regards to Kath... I don't know. However, Spawn was not the only Seer and it may be likely that her fellow Seer did find Lhuna's vote suspicious.

You managed to confuse me further Farael! Argh. Maybe Lhuna and Kath both are wolves, would that not be the easy solution? I shall have to consider this more, but I am hesitant to write my thoughts because I don't want to aid the wolves in finding the second Seer. Maybe I should stick to analysing voting patterns.

[Farael]

Well Tar-a, I don't think it's logical to make a list of known innocents this early on the game.... those lists "make themselves" as the seers choose the wrong people to dream of. Why in Eru's name would they dream of someone they think innocent when they (obviously, as spawn did) had some suspects?

The logic is quite simple, actually. And the fact that the seers have only one dream makes it more likely. On Day 1 there should be plenty of suspicious people to dream of... why dream about someone that either of the seers thinks Innocent?

And remember, I'm saying that Spawn thought that Lhuna was innocent ON DAY 1... that changed on day 2, but it was too late for her dream anyway. Spawn did not mistrust Lhuna until the end of the day, which means (to me) that she was swayed during the day by the arguments made. And she decided to vote for Lhuna rather than Kath (whom she knew a wolf... or so my theory goes) because the wolves had already ridden themselves of someone who had voiced loud suspicions of Kath and it's too early to sacrifice a seer for a wolf. Thus, she hinted subtly that we should not forget Kath. When she said so, I thought that spawn was just sort of agreeing with me.... now I think that it was even more than that, she was saying that Kath is not innocent as we may think her to be.

I know I have a bit of a reputation for having crazy theories, but think about it.... Spawn did not suspect Lhuna until mid day 2.... and she has steadfastly suspected (and hinted that we should not think innocent) Kath.

[Farael]

Cross posted with Cailin:

Those two comments by Spawn were made on the same day!!! A seer would not change her views of a wolf she's going after mid-day. I'm not trying to say that Lhuna is not a wolf though and you might be on to something when you say that maybe both women are wolves... but I think that Spawn's change of mind during the day shows that she was going after a "wolfishly looking" unknown rather than a known wolf. There is no reason for a seer who has chosen to go all out against a wolf to change their views mid-day. If anything, it will make her accusations seem like a flip-flop.

[Cailín]

You are wrong there, Farael. The first (rephrased) comment by Spawn was made on Day 1, the second was made on Day 2.

I see now Spawn did not immediately attack Lhuna, but she did shortly after she made her first post. I can think of merely two reasons why Seer-Spawn would attack anyone so strongly. It is not like her to be very outspoken in her accusations anyway:

1) She did not believe Lhuna to be wolvish at all and wished to delude the true wolves.

2) She was almost convinced to the point of sure that Lhuna is a wolf. She must have known that she would be a likely target - she is always a likely target - for the wolves had Lhuna been lynched and found guilty. I just don't believe she would be so easily swayed by the other villagers.

--

Your ideas concerning Kath are not at all far-fetched, Farael, but I think you are dismissing the Lhuna case too easily.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Cailín

You are wrong there, Farael. The first (rephrased) comment by Spawn was made on Day 1, the second was made on Day 2.

If that's the case, then I must correct my notes. Still, I think that

*Spawn seemed to be rather swayed by the villagers about Lhuna

*Spawn was not swayed at all with regards to Kath, even if some people argued in Kath's favour.

*Odds are against the Seers having found two wolves (specially now that I know they only get one dream/night)

Now, I still find Kath more suspicious than Lhuna... and I think the big fuss made about Lhuna's vote is misguided. Sure, Lhuna was (Hope you forgive me... and that the ProphetNilp does not smite me in a fit of brotherly love) pretty silly as it would (and did) make her look as lupine as it gets.... but that's the only strong piece of evidence we have against her

Her edgyness can be attributed at the fact that many people were suspecting her.

Now, I don't want to defend Lhuna, but it seems the best way to explain my thoughts about Kath... I think that one of them is a wolf (at least) and I think that it's more likely than Kath is a wolf than Lhuna. It might just be me, but I think it's better to take a risk trying to clear the air now rather than later....

Here's what I propose, feel free to reject it:
*We lynch Kath, whom I still think is the most suspicious

*If Kath is a wolf, we celebrate

*If Kath is not a wolf and Lhuna does nothing to change our collective minds, we lynch her

*If neither Kath nor Lhuna turn out to be wolves, I shall start thinking that I'm not as smart as I feel right now.....

*If either is a wolf.... it will be up to each of us to decide whether or not we think it's likely that both will be. I am uncertain on that matter and so I can't really plan for it.

I will get a lot of heat for "trying to sway the village" but I have my reasons and I'm sticking to them. If anyone can come up with a better plan, speak up.... It might be a little early on the day for me to propose a plan as wolves could latch on to it, create a bandwagon and hide in the background noise..... but I am "so certain" that either Kath or Lhuna are a wolf and pretty much convinced that Kath is rather than Lhuna that I am hoping you all will agree.

Now, THAT WAS NOT A SEER HINT. Please, note that I wrote ""so certain"" (in between "" thingies that I can't recall how they are called) and "pretty much convinced".... I'm basing this certainty and convincement on my reasoning, in which I believe strongly.... And if you don't think I am, maybe you should learn your history and read up on the Eighteenth time a village has been infected by wolves *hint, hint*... and sorry Nilp but it IS in itallics... so it's allowed, right?

[Lalaith]

Lhuna was not a likely dream suspect,

Farael, I'm not sure if I've understood you correctly here, but if I have, I'm not sure I agree with you. If I were a Seer in Nilp's game, I'd dream of Lhuna asap!

As for what we should do today, I'd started combing through spawn's posts this morning but I now find I've been called away. By the time I get back, a lot more people will be around (I expect) and a consensus may already have been reached. Oh well, I'll try to be as helpful as I can when I get back.

But, oh woe! Four innocents gone, including our incomparable Seer-spawn - this is not looking good, villagers....

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

If I were a Seer in Nilp's game, I'd dream of Lhuna asap!

You forgot to say Why, Lailath.... and let me remind you that you, unlike Lhuna, were suspected by Spawn on day 1

EDIT: Ok, now I get why... but I think most mods will roll a dice or something... maybe Spawn was an exception as she and ModNilp seem to get along pretty well but.... to choose everyone by hand? Too unlikely.

[the guy who be short]

Day 1


Post 7

~

Post 17

Jokingly reprimands Cailin for unreasoned vote. Nothing serious, as it wasn't really her fault and she had nothing to go on.

Post 30

Says Valier and I are probably not lovers. Damn right. We're not that stupid, are we, love?

Ambiguous regarding Cailin.

Post 124

Cailin, Eomer, TGWBS, lmp, Valier - ambiguous about us.

Says Lal could be seen as suspicious due to safe vote.

Says Kath's vote was weird.

Disagrees with tar-a, but says her vote is the best reasoned.

Celuien - says she doesn't look suspicious.

Glirdan - confused regarding him, but says he acts normal.

Farael - says he's acting normal.

Caralondien - not suspicious.

Post 128

Votes Eonwe. Says Lhuna makes sense.

Post 129

~

Post 132

~


Day 2


Post 151

Says Anguirel's death could point to Kath and Eomer, and could not.

Says Ang's death could make Glirdan look bad, but she doesn't support this theory.

Post 164

Says Lhuna needs closer examining. Points at her "I was afraid Ang may have been a bold Seer" statement.

Says Form's tie-making is interesting and risky.

Post 166

Not suspicious of Naria, because she's acting normally.

Post 175

~

Post 193

Points out to Eomer that Kath had spoken before Ang accused her. She also had to point this out to tar-a.

Tells Lhuna that votes saving Garin don't tell us much.

Post 199

Snaps at Eonwe for not suspecting anybody, but says she won't vote again because there are better candidates. [Considering her vote on Day 1, I believe she dreamt of Eonwe]

Wants to hear from Naria.

Post 207

Says wolves would not bother killing people to set up others, rather than trying to get Seers. Points at Kath or Lalaith and Cailin.

Says Ang probably died for protecting Garin and not for suspecting Kath.

Post 212

Votes Lhuna based on previous evidence, new behaviour, and a twisted quote.



Conclusion

I believe spawn did not dream of Lhuna on Night 2 and find her a wolf. I find it likely that she dreamt of Eonwe, whom she chastised for being unhelpful, but refused to vote for again. I see this as an attempt to get him to talk more and be a better asset to the village, now that she knew him to be innocent.

So, that meant we have only two useful dreams, as the Eonwe dream was wasted. From spawn, we can hope only to find one. As there is nobody she strongly defends, I see attempting to do so as a fruitless, if not dangerous, exercise.

So why was spawn killed? A threatened Lhuna wolf certainly looks likely, but perhaps they only wanted to get rid of the gender imbalance and chose somebody sensible who suspected few people and was under no suspicion herself.

Conclusion of Conclusion:

Ambiguous.

[the guy who be short]

A few cross-posts here.

Farael, you make sense, and you do not make sense. The sense you have made is enough to assuage my suspicion of you.

You make sense in saying Lhuna was not dreamt of. 'Twould be most unlikely.

However, you seem convinced that Kath was dreamt of. Why? Why would the Seers pick Kath? Surely they would go for TGWBS, or Garin, or LMP, or Eomer? The loudmouths who attract attention.

I see no reason why Kath would be dreamt of on Night 2 after Day 1s proceedings. Unless Eomer had already been dreamt of and found innocent. Hmm.

But still, I don't think her accusation is anywhere strong enough to condemn Kath. She remains wholly ambiguous.


No wolves were dreamt of.

[Cailín]

[Considering her vote on Day 1, I believe she dreamt of Eonwe]

I find this wholly unlikely.

1) Spawn is not the only Seer.

2) I find it very hard to believe - much harder to believe in fact, than a dream of Kath - the Seers would dream of Eonwe on the second night.

However, you seem convinced that Kath was dreamt of. Why? Why would the Seers pick Kath? Surely they would go for TGWBS, or Garin, or LMP, or Eomer? The loudmouths who attract attention.

I am not saying you are wrong, but you risk underestimating people like Kath and the Seers. Loudmouths like Garin and TGWBS ( ) are far too good at getting themselves lynched early on, while players like Kath, newbie Caranlondien and Lalaith are better at staying undercover.

Besides, you are disagreeing with yourself here.

Conclusion of Conclusion:

Ambiguous.

That's the way of the game, but you are definitely all flip-floppy and ambiguous right now.

[Farael]

I beg to differ TGWBS.... Spawn had voiced worries about Kath during Day 1.... and the loudmouths are more often than not, innocent. Let's face it, we both know that Wolves usually hide in the shadows... or at least, most wolves in the pack do.

Kath fits the bill to the T, and Spawn's constant reminder that we should not forget about her seems like a subtle hint that we should lynch her... subtle enough that it won't raise suspicions by the wolves, but clear enough so that we can follow it if she dies.

And she's dead, thus I say we follow it!!!

[the guy who be short]

Fine. I, personally, will look up the spawn quotes on Kath. Because I don't trust either of you.

And it's hard not to be ambiguous when spawn was so ambiguous, and my posts thus far have been an analysis of her words.


I shall, in fact, use direct quotes. There's little material on the subject. All quotes from spawn.

Kath's vote seems somewhat weird.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kath
Because (though I think this is repeating a past argument) if he's a wolf then better to get rid of him now, and if he's an innocent we won't be worrying about whether he's a wolf for the rest of the game! A hedging your bets argument it is I'll admit, but it's all I have.

As she admits, she repeats almost exactly the same words as tar-a in her past life. That reasoning got her in a bit of trouble then, but she turned out to be an innocent. Something in Kath's voting feels funny especially because if Eomer is innocent, it's good to keep him around. Post 124.

Why was Anguirel killed? What did he say?

#21, pointed at Kath and Eomer.
"For one, I don't like the stamp of that musician fella."
"The varmint claims to have disguised a were-army of hedgehogs under green shells and hidden them in a turtle farm. What d'ye have to say to that, Empress Kath of the Dread Meerkat Wandering Horde? Ha ha!" ~Ang

"I don't think Ang's early mention of Kath has anything to do with anything. I assumed from the beginning that it was just Day 1 histrionics, and that's why in my summary I barely mentioned it. And now that he's been proven not to have been a Seer, it can't possibly mean anything. She hadn't spoken yet--he was pulling her name out of the air. She may well merit a closer look, but not for this reason." ~tar-ancalime

Actually, at the time when Anguirel mentioned Kath, she had already spoken.

I think it's probable that the wolves don't want to waste their time for frame-ups when there are two Seers around. The sooner the wolves get rid of the Seers, the less incriminating information there is. Possibly makes Kath or Eomer look bad. Post 151

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eomer
So why all this talk of a set-up of Kath? Both Lalaith and Cailín mention that the death of Anguirel so obviously leads back to Kath that it must be a set-up.

Huh?

I find that funny, too. I'd like to point out that not all Nightly deaths are frame-ups. The wolves want to find the Seers, and since there are two of them now, it's even more important for the lycans to quickly get rid of the them. I just don't understand why wolves would see so much trouble in framing someone up. Anguirel might have been killed because of him defending Garin or whatever, but it's weird that these two say that the wolves obviously set Kath up. Maybe Kath is a wolf. Maybe Lalaith and Cailín are wolves who did set her up. Maybe I'll change the subject before I get myself confused.

You're basing all your suspicions on these three posts. Constant reminders? I see only mild accusations. This has made me think the worse of you both.

[Farael]

Suit yourself guy, suspect me as you please... there are a few more "reminders", read up to my post if you want to see where I found them. Then you can go check by yourself.

And why so shrill? have we stepped on a nerve? we accuse Kath and you accuse us.... why TGWBS?

[Cailín]

Fine. I, personally, will look up the spawn quotes on Kath. Because I don't trust either of you.

The feeling is mutual.

TGWBS, if you read my posts correctly (or maybe as I intended them), I do not really believe Spawn dreamt of Kath either. I think she dreamt of Lhuna.

I just really don't think the Seers dreamt of Eonwe.

Edit: cross-posted with Farael, who is beginning to act a little odd.

[Farael]

Cross posted with Cailin.... might be the lack of sleep that I'm not expressing myself properly. I'm just annoyed that I bothered to add a lovely "Post X" before each comment and he went back and must have missed some as I recall to have found more than 3 quotes from Spawn with regards to Kath.

Sorry for the mixup anyway, and now I AM off to bed.... or so I keep telling myself.

[the guy who be short]

I must go, but I want to raise a final, very controversial point before I do so.


We should systematically double lynch the male gender until we find the lovers.

There are 8 men and 10 women. If we systematically lynch men, we get the following:

Day 3 - 6 men, 10 women.
Night 4 - 6, 9
Day 4 - 4, 9
Night 5 - 4, 8
Day 5 - 2, 8
Night 6 - 2, 7
Day 6 - 0, 7

This is the worst case scenario. However, I don't think it will be that bad.


Think about it. There is a 100% chance that there is a lover in the male gender. By lynching 2 men today, we have a 25% chance of finding him. If this fails, we try again tomorrow. We have a 33% chance of lynching him. Overall, we stand a 50% chance of getting the lovers in the first two days!

Some may not view the lovers as as important as the wolves, but they are dangerous dissidents - especially the innocent lover, who appears as an innocent to the Seer. We can bring the enemies of the village down from 5 to 3 rather quickly.


And this is just thinking of the lovers. That maths doesn't count the fact that there are likely to be wolves in the 8 men too.

Each man, at present, stands a 2/9 chance of being a wolf. This means there is an 87% chance (1 - [7/9]^8) that there is at least one wolf in those eight men, possibly two, three or even four.



Taking this into account:

We have a 25% chance of lynching the lovers and a 22% chance of lynching a wolf this day.

If we get nothing, there are 6 men, 9 women left. There is a 4/15, or 26% chance of a wolf, and a 33% chance of a lover.


There's a lot of maths, but overall, if we double lynch all men, we have an over 50% chance of catching village dissidents in two days!

So, is it worth the cost of all those innocents?

I say yes. We increase our overall chances of winning, villagers, if we follow this strategy. More importantly, it is far easier to find wolves once we have got one wolf to work from.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Farael

The seers did not find a wolf on Day 1. Spawn voted for a (now) known innocent and did not leave anything I could find as a ‘hint’ of someone being a wolf. It’s logical, after all, as odds were against the seers finding a wolf on their first dream. Also, I think Spawn was likely to dream of someone she’s suspected, so I will not comment on the “possible innocents” as she’s not likely to have dreamt of them (Lhuna will be an exception as Spawn’s vote for her needs to be explained one way or another)

Ok, my thoughts…. I think that Spawn has dreamt of a wolf, but not the obvious one. In Day 1 it did not seem as if Spawn suspected Lhuna at all…. And why would she dream of her if she did not suspect her? She had voiced concerns about Kath and Lailath more loudly than the rest… and then, on day two we find that Spawn keeps on reminding us not to write off Kath as innocent just yet.

Call me crazy, but that all-but confirms my suspicions of Kath being a wolf. Think about it. Anguirel made a joking remark about Kath that was misinterpreted as a seer comment (aided by other things he said) and he was killed…. It’s only logical that a seer Spawn would be MUCH more careful. I think that she was hinting at what she knew in a way that would reveal itself if she died. Well, she’s dead now, and I think it’s time to read behind the lines.

Maybe it was well done reasoning. But it was all based on your summaries of posts instead of quotes. How can we be sure you summarized correctly, or even with innocent intent? It looks more like a trumped up story than solid reasoning, as there are not real facts in your post.

And villagers, let's please stop casting votes based on what annoys us? Annoyances are highly subjective and tell us little about the suspected person, a lot more about ourselves. So Eonwe wasn't being helpful; he wasn't causing any real problems either. We should be more concerned about villagers that are casting suspicion where it ought not to rest than people who vote on a whim, or declare themselves werewolves. Such folks are distractors. As to Guy, his declaration that he is a werewolf is only one fact out of many facing us. Let's please not let it carry more wait, nor less, than it should.

[littlemanpoet]

Okay, I've scanned everything so far. Not read carefully, just scanned ... to get a general sense of the arguments.

On Farael: 2 possibilities occur to me:

1. He has picked his target and is going whole hog after that one person until that person's identity is known one way or the other. This would not be a surprise.

2. He could be a desperate lover, doing all he can to protect his wolvish love.

I suggest that we double lynch Lhuna and Farael today, and clear up this confusion.

[tar-ancalime]

from Guy: There are 8 men and 10 women. If we systematically lynch men, we get the following:

Day 3 - 6 men, 10 women.
Night 4 - 6, 9
Day 4 - 4, 9
Night 5 - 4, 8
Day 5 - 2, 8
Night 6 - 2, 7
Day 6 - 0, 7

This is the worst case scenario. However, I don't think it will be that bad.

This isn't the whole story. Your Day 6 should read: 0,6 because when we finally get the male Lover (assuming we get him last, worst-case scenario) the female Lover dies too.

That leaves 6 people. Real worst-case? Three innocents, three wolves. Game over.

I think you have an intriguing idea, but it's one that we can't let play out to this conclusion.

This is assuming that at least three wolves are women, which is unlikely, but if the wolves were chosen at random it's not out of the realm of possibility.

[Farael]

Ok, I lied... I haven't gone to bed yet, but what keeps me up is not really werewolf related.

Anyway,

LMP you are a smart man.... there's no denying that. But I never meant my posts to be The One List of Evidence..... I bothered to add "Post number" so that you all could go back and look at it. Humor me, do it... you will find (I hope) the same thing I did. Just make sure you go through all the posts I mentioned and you look carefully enough. Remember, this is a game of details.

And if you think I'm the male lover, why don't you lynch me and Kath? or Lhuna and Kath? if Lhuna and I are the lovers, then we'll die together.... but given that at least I'm innocent, I know it won't happen. As I (tried to) show before, I will let myself be lynched if it's for the better of the village... but I don't think that I have been rendered useless just yet. Maybe this is another of my crazy theories and feel free to prove me wrong. But until you do, I will still have Kath as my prime suspect and Lhuna as a possibility for later on....

Edit: Cross posted with Tar-a.... you forget one thing though, what if all the wolves happened to be female? I mean, if it was random, it is plausible to happen.... so if we embark ourselves in a "Let's lynch the males" campaign, we might find that all of a sudden the wolves change their collective minds and get rid of a male as well.... finding the traitor in their midst.

Furthermore, what if the Seer is male?

I think it's too early for TGWBS's plan.

[littlemanpoet]

Obviously, being in a werewolf village is a gamble in itself. However, playing the odds with possible percentages has a real chance of backfiring. The only number that I trust in your maths analysis is the 100% for a male lover. That one's obvious. But all the other numbers could prove disastrously wrong. Maybe all the werewolves are women. Think about it: the Mod God probably randomly picked roles first, getting his 2 werewolves and 2 seers, and then from the werewolves picked a lover, and from the innocents (minus seers obviously) picked the ordo lover. That means that, probabilities nonetheless, there could be all women werewolves. Obviously I can't know this, but I don't want to discount it either.

Far better to go with a thorough combing of every word said by everyone. I don't trust in probabilities, though your offering of them gives me hope that you're not a werewolf yourself.