Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVII: The Saga Continues to Continue quite Continuously

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

I will have to go back and review what has been said throughout our four previous days of discussion. For today, I see little point in a double-lynch unless we can be reasonably sure that we have identified the final Wolf. I am not nearly certain enough to countenance voting for anyone other than TGWBS at this stage. We do not want to help the last Wolf by eliminating an innocent with our known Wolf. We would then be two innocents and one Wolf down tomorrow.

Actually, a double lynching would give us better chances to find the final wolf tomorrow even if we guess wrong toDay.

Known innocents:
Formendacil
malkatoj
mormegil
Nilp
Sauce


Unknowns:
Garin
Gil
Glirdan
Kath
spawn

Known wolves:
TGWBS


TGWBS will be lynched toDay. Malkatoj will be killed next Night, and at dawn, here we are with four known innocents and five unknowns. If we choose someone to die from the 'unknowns' group with TGWBS, we have tomorrow four known innocents against four unknowns and thus better chances to spot the final wolf. I'm not that fond of "playing safe" *coughWW15cough* but I have nothing against getting rid of the wolves.

Originally Posted by Sauce

Dancing spawn really does concern me, though. She has been vocal throughout. Her contributions have made good sense. Mostly because of that, she has not yet attracted a single vote.

You're welcome to suspect me as much as you want to, but I can tell you right now that I'm an ordinary villager.

[Glirdan]

Malka the Seer eh? For the longest time, I thought that TGWBS was the Seer. His sudden change in suspicion of me seemed very odd, yet I think he might have caught on to something that the villagers haven't. But now I see it was all a ploy for villagers to trust him and to confuse us.

I'm ok with the double lynching idea but if we are to do that, I still think that we should go for either Garin or Kath. I think there's a stronger case against Kath though. She's really been flying under my radar. Making herself heard yet not attracting to much suspicion. And now, looking back at the voting pattern for the first few Days, she's had the same vote as TGWBS each Day except for day 2 when she voted for Valier instead. Another thing I notice about her is that on everyDay (except for Day 4 because she had to vote early) she's voted late in the Day after the votes have gathered enough for them. She's definetly raised up in my suspicions list.

I'm going to wait to vote to see what else develops.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, the villagers had better win after all this. I have just spent the best part of my Sunday re-reading the entire thread, when I should have been unpacking boxes and putting up shelves in my new lawyerly residence.

More of that later ...

For now:

Originally Posted by dancing spawn

TGWBS will be lynched toDay. Malkatoj will be killed next Night, and at dawn, here we are with four known innocents and five unknowns. If we choose someone to die from the 'unknowns' group with TGWBS, we have tomorrow four known innocents against four unknowns and thus better chances to spot the final wolf.

OK, the maths works for me. I am up for a double-lynching - if we can organise it. Note, if we are going to do this, the Hunter should declare so that we do not lynch him or her by mistake. That will also give us more known innocents (assuming that malkatoj did not dream of the Hunter).

Problem is that we need to agree on who we should double-lynch. And the last Wolf and the Cobbler are both capable of mucking up our plans, and perhaps even saving TGWBS. We need to be alive to this risk and one or more of our trusted villagers will need to stay around until the end of voting to make sure that things do not go wrong. I may be able to do this. Nilp probably won't be around again today and Formendacil and malkatoj have already voted. How about you, morm?

More in a bit with my thoughts on who the last Wolf might be.

In the meantime - HUNTER, PLEASE DECLARE YOURSELF.

[Glirdan]

Well, it's oddly quiet toDay.

Now, I know this is going to be both a very stupid and incriminating questions but I have to ask it. Why do we ABSOLUTELY want the Hunter to reveal him/herself? Yes it would have another innocent narrowed down, but by the sounds of it, TGWBS and the other Wolf already know who it is. Here is exactly what he said:

And then, while you-know-who is certainly the you-know-what, what with the innocent list, it's safer to pick them off than killing you-know-who.

Now, does that not seem like they already know who it is? Now TGWBS's suggested plan for the final Wolf is to leave whoever they're talking about in be and go after the people in the innocent list starting with Malka. If the Hunter reveals him/herself, then that gives the last Wolf more incentive to go after the Hunter after tomorrow Night and possibly take down another Wolf with him/her. Do we really want to risk that chance?

Edit: Cross-posted with SpM

[mormegil]

On second thought I don't think the double lynching is the greatest idea and we should probably wait until the situation is a bit more desperate.

++TGWBS

I still claim Formendacil is the cobbler and that he should be lynched tomorrow if we don't know who the wolf is.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Now, does that not seem like they already know who it is? Now TGWBS's suggested plan for the final Wolf is to leave whoever they're talking about in be and go after the people in the innocent list starting with Malka. If the Hunter reveals him/herself, then that gives the last Wolf more incentive to go after the Hunter after tomorrow Night and possibly take down another Wolf with him/her. Do we really want to risk that chance?

I think TGWBS' "you-know-who" talk was just something he said to spite us. However, if the Hunter is among the known innocents, I don't see why s/he should declare him/herself.

[The Saucepan Man]

Who might be the last Wolf out of the remaining unknowns?

Gil-Galad
An unknown quantity. His posts, and his one vote, tell us very little. But I still have a concern that, with Naria voting infrequently, the third Wolf would not be such a consistent non-voter too.

Originally Posted by TGWBS on Day 1

I, TGWBS, hereby formally declare suspicion of the following: Wayne, SpM, mormegil, Gil, Abercrombie.

Four of those he randomly accused on Day 1 are now known to be innocent. Is the fifth also innocent, or did he include a fellow Wolf in that list?

Originally Posted by TGWBS on Day 3

The two others I'm closely watching at the moment are wayne and Gil. Of these two, I find Gil most worrying ... But Gil's vote - that's incriminating! It can't really be construed as anything but a capitalisation on wayne's self-vote.

It would be dangerous for a Wolf to cast suspicion, and so strongly, on Gil-Galad if he was a fellow Wolf. This would suggest to me that Gil is not a fellow Wolf.

Originally Posted by TGWBS, also on Day 3

For myself, I see the werewolves as mormegil, Glirdan, and either Garin or a quiet villager such as wayne, Gil or Marco.

Same comment applies. And this also speaks in Garin's favour, given that Garin has generally been under a lot of suspicion. It is possible, however, that TGWBS chose to include one fellow Wolf on that list in an attempt to clear them should he be lynched.

Glirdan
OK, I'll be frank, here. I think that Glirdan is the Hunter. Remember that the Ranger and the Hunter knew who each other were and could communiate during the day? Of all the villagers still alive, Cailin's posts point most towards Glirdan being the Hunter. She defended him quite strongly. Spawn voiced strong suspicion of Cailin and Garin voted for her, so it cannot be either of those two.

Kath
TGWBS made the point yesterday that Kath's votes have been among some of the least suspicious.

Originally Posted by TGWBS on Day 2

Finally, Kath's vote for Abercrombie. Not wolvish at all. Just look at the numbers involved when she voted - it was an incriminating, non-wolf thing to do

Originally Posted by TGWBS on Day 3

I think I will mention Kath. After Day 1, I believed in her innocence due to her voting for Abercrombie last. Yesterday, she was the only one to vote for Valier. Unless she's being incredibly bold, I don't think she's a wolf. Why kill somebody you voted for in the Day?

I agreed with what he said about Kath's votes, although the reason that she gave for voting for Abercrombie (following spawn) still seems strange. However, TGWBS's fairly strong defence of Kath gives me reason to worry about her.

Also, one other point to note about Kath, from reviewing her contributions, is that she seems to work by looking at the ideas that others have put forward and basing her own contributions on that - agreeing or disagreeing with others' ideas, rather than putting forward her own. Possibly, a good way for a Wolf to hide.

As has been noted, she has voted the same way as TGWBS on every day, except Day 3 when TGWBS voted for a fellow Wolf. That is incriminating on the face of it, but would two Wolves vote so consistently for the same villagers?

Garin
I really do not think Garin to be a Wolf. If he is, he has been playing very boldly. Just look at this:

Garin voted for Valier on Day 1. Valier voted for him on Day 2. Valier dies on Night 3 and is shown to be innocent.

Garin voted for Shelob on Day 2, to save himself. Shelob is lynched and shown to be innocent.

Cailin strongly suspected Garin and voted for him on Day 2.

Originally Posted by Cailin on Day 2

Now Garin does look suspicious in my eyes. He mostly just agrees with Saucy and Morm, which is always clever because they are likely people to bring up a case against you.

He voted for Cailin on Day 3. Cailin was forced to reveal herself as the Ranger and died on Night 4.

Marcolie Lamen strongly suspected Garin on Day 4, but did not vote. Garin voted for Marcolie Lamen on Day 4.

Originally Posted by Marcolie Lamen on Day 3

It makes sense to me for Naria and Garin to be working together, at opposite ends of the spetrum, and then someone else in between.

Originally Posted by Garin on Day 3

In fact, I found the post to be wolvish enough and I have too much work to do that I will vote now:
++Márcolië Lamen

Marcolie Lamen dies on Night 5 and is shown to be innocent.

Garin has some kind of involvement with the death of most of the innocents who have died. Would a Wolf be so foolish as to allow this to happen? Possibly, but it is extremely risky behaviour for a Wolf. The fact that Marcolie died last night tends to suggest to me that it was yet another attmept to frame him and that he is in fact innocent.

Dancing spawn
She has voted for a known innocent on every day and that three of those she has voted for ended up being lynched on the day she voted for them. However, since three of my four votes have been for known innocents, I cannot accuse her on that basis alone. I can find very little else that incriminates her, although that fact in itself is worrying.

On Day 2, however, she did stoke up the suspicion of Shelob and Cailin:

Originally Posted by Dancing spawn on Day 2

Somehow I'm now starting to feel more uneasy about Shelob and Cailín. I'll go looking back at their posts now and tell if I find something.

I will not deny that dancing spawn's suspicions of these two influenced my own thoughts about them. She is a sensible and analytical villager, and so I respect her views. When they match my own thoughts, then they reinforce them. That makes her dangerous in my eyes.

TGWBS's comments are interesting, as far as spawn is concerned:

Originally Posted by TGWBS on Day 2

Spawn was the next to vote. I'm not sure what to make of her. This was when Valier also had three votes, again tying. Without knowing Valier's identity, we can't infer anything.

This might be seen as an attempt to tie dancing spawn's innocence to that of Valier (as spawn's vote tied Abercrombie with Valier). Valier was later killed by the Wolves and shown to be innocent.

Originally Posted by TGWBS, also on Day 2

So, I must say, I feel that all those voting for Abercrombie were innocent. This is not only because I was in the group - it seemed like a rational thing to do, at the time, and while I regret her innocence, I believed it to be logical.

By declaring those who voted for Abercrombie to be innocent, he is attempting to clear himself. But is he also attempting to clear either Kath or spawn? It would be a logical thing to do if two Wolves had ended up getting themselves caught in the Abercrombie bandwaggon.

Originally Posted by TGWBS on Day 3

Interestingly, spawn, SpM, Kath and Garin have all voted for innocents twice. I'm not sure how telling this is, as I'm inclined to suspect none of the above, really. Perhaps I shall have to look into all of them individually. I went through Valier's posts, and she doesn't really mention anybody but Garin. As Cailin says, this makes him look bad, but it could easily be a bluff, or double bluff.

Again, a possible attempt to clear either spawn or Kath - and he also mentions Garin.

To conclude, I would prefer not to include in any double-lynching Gil-Galad, Garin or Glirdan (the 'three Gs' that everyone else seems so suspicious of).

That leaves Kath or spawn ...

Edit: Cross-posted with Glirdan, morm and spawn, whose comments I shall address shortly.

[malkatoj]

To answer SpM's question, yes I have dreamt of all those people, and no I have not dreamt of the hunter.

Thanks TGWBS for confirming my Seerdom, you horrible furry wolf.

[mormegil]

Malka, out of curiousity which order were the dreamt?

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Now, I know this is going to be both a very stupid and incriminating questions but I have to ask it. Why do we ABSOLUTELY want the Hunter to reveal him/herself? Yes it would have another innocent narrowed down, but by the sounds of it, TGWBS and the other Wolf already know who it is.

Actually, it's not incriminating. It reinforces my view that you are the Hunter. Assuming you are, sorry for "outing" you, but I felt it necessary.

I tend to agree that the Wolves have a good idea who the Hunter is. Given that, is it not better that the innocents have that knowledge too? Since malkatoj has not dreamed of them, the Hunter becomes another known innocent (and someone who is definately not a Cobbler), narrowing down our list of suspects for the last Wolf.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

If the Hunter reveals him/herself, then that gives the last Wolf more incentive to go after the Hunter after tomorrow Night and possibly take down another Wolf with him/her.

The Hunter is in no danger tonight, since the Seer will be his or her target. That gives us a ratio of five known innocents to four unknowns tomorrow (since a double lynch now looks out of the question). The last Wolf would be foolish to target the Hunter the following night, because there is a one in three chance that the Hunter will kill them. And, if the Hunter were to target the wrong person, then that would leave us with four known innocents to two unknowns and almost certain victory (provided that we could avoid the Cobbler's machinations).

All in all, I think that it is best if the Hunter declares, if not now then certainly tomorrow.

Originally Posted by mormegil

On second thought I don't think the double lynching is the greatest idea and we should probably wait until the situation is a bit more desperate.

Well, it's probably out of the question with your vote. But why don't you think it a good idea?

Originally Posted by mormegil

I still claim Formendacil is the cobbler and that he should be lynched tomorrow if we don't know who the wolf is.

Eh? Kill someone that we know is not a Wolf, even though he may be the Cobbler, rather than kill someone who may actually turn out to be a Wolf? What kind of madness is this? Are you the Cobbler, perchance?

Originally Posted by malkatoj

To answer SpM's question, yes I have dreamt of all those people, and no I have not dreamt of the hunter.

Thanks, malka. That helps a lot.

[Garin]

SpM says: It would be dangerous for a Wolf to cast suspicion, and so strongly, on Gil-Galad if he was a fellow Wolf. This would suggest to me that Gil is not a fellow Wolf.

Keep in mind that TGWBS actually voted for Naria so if he is a wolf, he is indeed bold.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Garin

Keep in mind that TGWBS actually voted for Naria so if he is a wolf, he is indeed bold.

True, but TGWBS correctly assessed that no one else was likely to vote for Naria that day. Gil-Galad, on the other hand, is almost always in danger of being lynched (even when he has no votes) as he is supicious by his very nature. I doubt that a Wolf would be keen to cast suspicion on Gil, if he was a fellow Wolf, simply because it would carry with it a good chance of actually getting Gil lynched.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

I was just doing my own search of TGWBS' quotes of other players, but Sauce has already said much of what I was about to say. Here are my conclusions of TGWBS' posts.

I'm not suspicious of Glirdan at all, actually. TGWBS is casting way too much suspicion on Glirdan on page 4, and then there's this:

Originally Posted by TGWBS

At the moment, I am most in favour of lynching Glirdan. He gives no reasoning for his lack of logic, and very little rational reasoning for casting suspicion on SpM, his odd feelings notwithstanding, of course.

The two others I'm closely watching at the moment are wayne and Gil. Of these two, I find Gil most worrying.

I'm not too worried of Gil either on the basis of TGWBS' sayings (see Sauce's post #327). I'm not sure whether these quotes would point Gil being innocent or quilty, though:

Originally Posted by TGWBS #53

I'm thinking he [Gil] could be our cobbler, as are many others. So, while he is high on my list of potential enemies to the village, I am reluctant to lynch him.

Originally Posted by #147

Did not vote Gil Galad, Glirdan, Marcolie Lamen, wayne, Naria
...
I, for one, would be more than pleased to kill them off if they don't start talking.

Originally Posted by #152

I am confident that a wolf, perhaps two, abides amongst those who are silent or quiet: Gil-Galad, Marcolie, Glirdan, Form, Wayne and Naria

Would TGWBS be so bold as to campaign for lynching the quiet ones if there were two wolves on the list (Naria + Gil)?

It's actually Kath of whom I'm most worried about now. I was really suspicious of her earlier (see my post #105) and maybe that's why I find things TGWBS has said about her more unnerving than the things he had said of others, but anyway...

First of all, there were the things Sauce already mentioned. In addition, I found this:

Originally Posted by TGWBS #152

Unless she's [Kath] being incredibly bold, I don't think she's a wolf.

Besides, I haven't seen Kath answering my question if she cross-posted her vote for Abercrombie with Aiwendil although I asked it twice.

Edit: Cross-posting with those after post #329.

[mormegil]

SpM I don't think it a good idea at this stage because we are not desperate, the wolves are and unless we get a wolf one more innocent will be killed. With the cobbler still on the loose that could play into the wolves hands. Now that's a great segway into my theory of killing Formendacil tomorrow. I don't think it will happen nor do I suppose it's the wisest course of action. However, I do want to continue to assert that he seems cobblerish to me. I feel that if I let up on this he may be able to wreak havoc and ruin an almost guaranteed victory. You admit yourself that the cobbler is a wild card therefore I want my top suspect to know I am still watching him and he's not a 100% known innocent to me nor any others for that matter. While I believe Nilp and SpM to be innocent I can't be 100% sure they aren't the cobbler though I find it highly improbable.

[Garin]

Well I am working on a Sunday, a double-lynch doesn't seem to be happening.
If Malkatoj indeed turns out to be a seer and Guy is a wolf we will know that the following MIGHT be a wolf:
Garin
Gil
Glirdan
Kath
spawn
I have already cast my vote and can't do much at work, so I will try to spend time during the night giving a write-up of the unknowns. Chances are I will train my sights on those who suspect me, that is how I roll, knowing that I am a miserable Ordo.
The cobbler shows as an ordo to the seer, correct? I had assumptions coming into this game and was enlightened by Form that there is no cursed, should someone PM the Mod God and verify this?

[Meneltarmacil]

*rises from the grave*

The Cobbler does in fact appear as an Ordinary Villager to the Seer.
And there is no Cursed.

*sinks back into the grave*

[Glirdan]

Well SpM, you just blew my cover, but, I guess it's for the best of the village. I am indeed the Hunter and that is in fact why me and Cailin have not suspected each other. Now we're down to three unknown's and out of them, I still believe that Kath is the last Wolf. Unfortunately, I believe that the Wolves already knew this. What's really surprsing to me now is if they knew yesterDay that I was the Hunter, why did they not attack me.

I will now cast my vote for

++The-Guy-Who-Be-Wolf

May we lynch you in style you evil lupine.

As for me, I do not know if I will return. I will try but I do not know if I will be able to do it. As I said above, may we lynch him in style. Which also means make it terrible and evil.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by mormegil

SpM I don't think it a good idea at this stage because we are not desperate, the wolves are and unless we get a wolf one more innocent will be killed. With the cobbler still on the loose that could play into the wolves hands. Now that's a great segway into my theory of killing Formendacil tomorrow. I don't think it will happen nor do I suppose it's the wisest course of action. However, I do want to continue to assert that he seems cobblerish to me. I feel that if I let up on this he may be able to wreak havoc and ruin an almost guaranteed victory. You admit yourself that the cobbler is a wild card therefore I want my top suspect to know I am still watching him and he's not a 100% known innocent to me nor any others for that matter. While I believe Nilp and SpM to be innocent I can't be 100% sure they aren't the cobbler though I find it highly improbable.

Well, next Night's kill won't leave us any trail since even the most inexperienced whelp would go after the Seer. Tomorrow we'll have more unknowns than proved innocents left and one of them will be a wolf. We will have the Cobbler left, too. I understand your point, but I don't think that the odds are much better for finding the last wolf tomorrow than it is toDay unless Kath and Gil will actively join our conversations.

The votes are:

malkatoj -> TGWBS
Nilp -> TGWBS
Garin -> TGWBS
Formendacil -> TGWBS
TGWBS -> mormegil
Glirdan -> TGWBS

Six - edit: Five - votes left which means that no double lynching toDay. Okay.

++The Wolf Who Be Short

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Now that's a great segway into my theory of killing Formendacil tomorrow. I don't think it will happen nor do I suppose it's the wisest course of action. However, I do want to continue to assert that he seems cobblerish to me. I feel that if I let up on this he may be able to wreak havoc and ruin an almost guaranteed victory.

I certainly agree that we should be alive to the fact that one of our known innocents might well be the Cobbler. I am dubious as to whether it is Formendacil, as he started out acting too darn Cobbleresque. I am concerned that the Cobbler has actually played a much more subtle game, hoping to avoid suspicion or Wolfish maw until the time comes when he or she can do most damage. That time is nearing, so we all need to be alert.

What concerned me about your post was the way that you suggested killing Formendacil, who we know is not a Wolf, if we cannot find a Wolf. The chances of locating a Wolf with any certainty tomorrow are low. But, by lynching one of the unknowns, we will at least be giving ourselves the chance of lynching the last Wolf - or possibly even the Cobbler. Lynching Formendacil tomorrow might rid us of the Cobbler (unlikely in my view), but carries with it no chance of killing a Wolf and much more chance of killing an ordinary innocent. Let's not go there. 'Tis a silly plan.

My own view is that, overnight, we should all review the entire proceedings, focussing on those who remain unknown quantites, what they have said and what the known Wolves have said about them. I have already done this, and it looks like spawn has too. Having done this, we should agree amongst ourselves tomorrow as far as we are able who, of the unknowns, we should lynch. That way, we minimise the possibility of Wolfish and Cobblerseque influence.

For now, I might as well cast my vote. TGWBS is a Wolf. We know that and, with five votes cast for him and five votes to come, he will die in any event. Everyone else who I would consider voting for still has a vote left, and so there is no point in me trying for a double lynch. Whatever happens, therefore, today's votes will tell us nothing. So I might as well vote for:

++ THE GUY WHO BE SHORT and fiendish.

Originally Posted by Garin

If Malkatoj indeed turns out to be a seer and Guy is a wolf ...

Why do you still think there is any doubt here? TGWBS has admitted it.

The only other possibility is that malkatoj is a Wolf and TGWBS is the Cobbler. In the highly unlikely event that this is the case, we lynch malkatoj tomorrow.

The cobbler shows as an ordo to the seer, correct?

Yes. Any one of our known innocents could be the Cobbler.

Edit: Cross-posted with Modertarmacil, Glirdan and dancing spawn.

[Gil-Galad]

sorry for me barely being on... but i read over everyone else and i would probably have to go for TGWBS, but i have a feeling he might be innocent... though my vote probably won't do much


++Spawn


i got mixed feelings...

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Well SpM, you just blew my cover, but, I guess it's for the best of the village.

Sorry, but I did think that it was for the best. I thought that it was obvious, once Cailin declared herself. That's why I no longer suspected you. I am pretty sure that TGWBS would have worked it out too (he was the only other person, in my view, that could have been the Hunter, based upon how things had gone with Cailin). I wondered whether the Wolves might have gone for you instead of Cailin on Night 4 on the basis that I was your most likely target at that stage. They could have taken down two innocents in one blow, although it would have given Cailin one more day.

Assuming that malkatoj dies tonight, we will at least have one trusted villager, which will be useful if we decide to go for a double lynch. One word of caution - choose your nightly targets carefully, and do not necessarily target those that you have identified as your suspects during the day. That doesn't mean don't do it, but we want to keep the Wolf guessing as to who your target may be so that they do not see you as a safe kill.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Now we're down to three unknown's ...

Originally Posted by dancing spawn

Tomorrow we'll have more unknowns than proved innocents left ...

No and no. There seems to be a bit of confusion as to who is innocent, who is unknown etc, so this is to clarify:

Today

Seer: malkatoj

Hunter: Glirdan

Wolf: The guy who be short

Known not to be Wolves, but may be the Cobbler:
The Saucepan Man
Mormegil
Formendacil
Nilpaurion Felagund

Unknown:
Dancing spawn of ungoliant
Kath
Garin
Gil-Galad

Tomorrow (assuming that malkatoj is killed tonight)

Hunter: Glirdan

Known not to be Wolves, but may be the Cobbler:
The Saucepan Man
Mormegil
Formendacil
Nilpaurion Felagund

Unknown:
Dancing spawn of ungoliant
Kath
Garin
Gil-Galad

That's five innocents (four of whom are possible Cobblers) and four unknowns.

Capiche?

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, Gil's not doing himself any favours.

Silly vote if he is a Wolf, but you never know with Gil ...!!

[Garin]

Posted by SpM:Why do you still think there is any doubt here? TGWBS has admitted it

.
You and myself trusted him as innocent. I made my vote already, so it is obvious that I believe Malkatoj, I am simply covering my behind in case we are wrong.

Posted by Gil:sorry for me barely being on... but i read over everyone else and i would probably have to go for TGWBS, but i have a feeling he might be innocent... though my vote probably won't do much

Thanks for coming in and voting but this will not look good during the next day.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Sauce

Capiche?

Si.

You see, I wrote that before I saw Glirdan's post where he admitted that he's the Hunter and voted. I edited his vote in my post, but forgot the other part.

Originally Posted by Gil

++Spawn

I feel special.

[Garin]

My posts at work have been miserable as I look at them, I will be silent for the rest of the day.

[malkatoj]

Mormegil: Malka, out of curiousity which order were the dreamt?

NIGHT 1: Formendacil, as determined by the roll of a 20-sided die
NIGHT 2: Mormegil, as chosen from a group of three who seemed worth dreaming of and chosen by a random number generator that my friend programmed
NIGHT 3: Nilp, because I couldn't stand not knowing
NIGHT 4: Saucepan Man, because I was about ready to determine that if he wasn't a wolf I would eat my pants...and that wouldn't taste good...luckily I dreamt of him before I got to the pants-eating point (notice he disappeared off my suspicious list and onto my innocent list)
NIGHT 5: TGWBS because I was suspicious of him to begin with, and his unfounded suspicion and accusation of Mormegil (whom I knew to be innocent) was getting to me.

So on the off chance that I'm not killed toNight, I'd like to know whom you lot want me to dream of, though I have a feeling that if you choose the wolf it'll solidify their wanting to kill me more than anything else. So don't tell me, and I'll choose from the unknowns the one whom I think would be most wolfishly inclined. So basically, ignore this paragraph.

Gil's vote bothers me. I still think he's the cobbler. I'm pretty sure the final wolf will vote TGWBS because it'd be dumb not to--any other votes will draw attention when there's a known wolf. Then again, he might be doing this to make us *think* he's not a wolf because it'd be too dumb for a wolf to do, when really he's a wolf and pulling a double-bluff. Hm.

[Gil-Galad]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Well, Gil's not doing himself any favours.

Silly vote if he is a Wolf, but you never know with Gil ...!!

well its hard for me, because if i voted for TGWBS, and he turned out to be innocent, then everyone who voted for him will be examined, but if he is a wolf and since i voted for someone else, i would examined as being a wolf so its hard...

so far my feelings are that Saucey, Guy and myself are not wolves, though i have been mistaken before...


i think the seer should dream of me to prove that i'm innocent, i don't want to be cannon-fodder for the town... though the shape is interesting, i don't enjoy being mush.

[Formendacil]

Thou callest ME a Cobbler, good Morm? I am heavily inclined to think YOU the Cobbler. And this is not petty retaliation or simple-minded vengeance, but a genuince perplexity at the different feeling I'm getting from you. You are NOT the usual, aggressive, vaguely annoying Morm of old- the Innocent Morm of old. You are, in fact, suspiciously quiet- for you- and you are flying under the radar a lot more than usual.

Kill me if you like, good village, but take Morm down with me. He deserves it.

[Glirdan]

I'd like to know whom you lot want me to dream of

I'm agreeing with this. I would like to know any idea's on whom I should go after. I will NOT say whom I will go after, I will merely choose and you will find out later on.

As for whom Malka should dream of, I believe that it should be either Kath or Gil; the two that have attracted the most suspicion as of late.

I must leave now for the rest of the Day. I will come back later on and check up, but not before the Day is over.

Oh, and Wolfy boy, may you rot in the halls of Mandos or wherever you're going. Good bye you scum!! Cailin's efforts were not completely in vain!!!

Good day all!!

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by Malka

TGWBS because I was suspicious of him to begin with, and his unfounded suspicion and accusation of Mormegil (whom I knew to be innocent) was getting to me.

Unfounded? My dear girl, just because I'm a wolf, doesn't mean you can discredit me so! Do you know how carefully I planned that case against morm? I almost convinced myself he was a wolf...

Originally Posted by Formen

Kill me if you like, good village, but take Morm down with me. He deserves it.

Thank you. See? I must make sense.

Originally Posted by malka

So on the off chance that I'm not killed toNight, I'd like to know whom you lot want me to dream of

Malka, dear, the chance of you being alive tomorrow is less than the chance of me being alive tomorrow.

Originally Posted by spawn

I think TGWBS' "you-know-who" talk was just something he said to spite us. However, if the Hunter is among the known innocents, I don't see why s/he should declare him/herself.

Well, you-know-who is actually a you-know-what but their thingy isn't quite as you-know-which-adjective as the other thing I'm not allowed to mention, wink wink.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Unfortunately, I believe that the Wolves already knew this. What's really surprsing to me now is if they knew yesterDay that I was the Hunter, why did they not attack me.

And kill SpM? Are you mad!

[Meneltarmacil]

I will not be here at the deadline but should be back about 45 minutes later. Please stop posting by then. I've asked Farael to remind you then, but he may not be able to. I shall post the death of TGWBS once I have returned.

[the guy who be short]

Well, villagers, this is my last farewell.

I hope you all die. And expect my death to be avenged most terribly.

[mormegil]

31 now 32 posts are suspiciously quiet? This does seem vindictive of you. I agree with SpM that I don't think you should by lynched yesterday but I do want to make the point that I am NOT convinced of you entire innocence. I am not being agressive? I admit I slowed down after my major folly of lynching Cailin.

TGWBS I admit it was a good arguement against me and I did believe you innocent but I think your mistake was your continued attack. If you want my opinion of it that is.

Where is Kath?

[Garin]

Morm, stop squabbling. Even if you are the cobbler you won't be taking any lives at night, the bickering will now turn to the G-boys and Kath and Spawn. I bid a farewell to Malkatoj and The Guy. If it wasn't for her sacrifice our insane village would've lynched another innoncent, I am sure.

[Garin]

Where is Kath?

I agree. If she comes out loud tomorrow it will be rather telling. She has been more quiet than I have ever seen her.

[Farael]

Alright!!! If I'm not mistaken the time is up. Meneltarmacil should give you guys your little story in a few minutes. Good luck you all.

[Glirdan]

I thought the Day was supposed to be over? Hello? Mod Gods??

While we're waiting, I'd like to adress one thing:

originally posted by Garin
Morm, stop squabbling. Even if you are the cobbler you won't be taking any lives at night, the bickering will now turn to the G-boys and Kath and Spawn. I bid a farewell to Malkatoj and The Guy. If it wasn't for her sacrifice our insane village would've lynched another innoncent, I am sure.

I must ask you want do you mean by the G-Boys? I'm now innocent. If you have not been following everything, here's something to make it plain and clear to you: I AM THE HUNTER! You on the other hand are not cleared. So, really, the bickering will turn to you and Gil, not myself and Gil if that's what you were talking about.

Now, good Night friends.

[Meneltarmacil]

Thanks, Farael.

EDIT: I'm sorry about it being late. I did the best I could and told Farael to remind you of the times, etc. And I'm glad to see that he did so. Again, I apologize for the lateness.

The villagers cornered the guy who be short in his house by the sea where he kept his fishing gear and sold the catch of the day.

"You're coming with us, Wolf!" shouted malkatoj. "I know what you are."

"Heh heh," the guy responded, grinning. He then started to change shape. Fangs grew in his mouth as fur sprouted all over him. He grew a snout, claws, and a tail as well.

"Just try and lynch me! Come on!" the guy who be a wolf growled at the villagers. Some of them stepped back, but mormegil, Formendacil, and The Saucepan Man stood their ground. They started throwing various objects at him, including daggers, history books, and saucepans.

After a lot of clanging, banging, and other such noises The guy who be short was now the wolf who be lynched.

Living:
mormegil- Elven smith
Garin- Truffle hunter with a half a dozen pigs and no social manners
Nilpaurion Felagund- Escaped thrall from Tol-in-Gaurhoth
dancing spawn of ungoliant- Florist
The Saucepan Man- Earnest and learned young man of the law
malkatoj- Retired Miracle Man (who is not really a man)
Gil-Galad- Shape-Analyst
Glirdan- Crazy guy down the street
Formendacil- Village historian
Kath- Local investigator into the paranormal

Dead:
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Speared by wolves on Night 1
AbercrombieOfRohan (Ordinary Villager): Treed and crushed by villagers on Day 1
Aiwendil (Ordinary Villager): Crushed by a tree chopped down by the werewolves onto his house on Night 2
Shelob (Ordinary Villager): Hung by villagers on Day 2
Valier (Ordinary Villager): Coconutted by wolves on Night 3
WaynetheGoblin (Ordinary Villager): Hung on a +9 Rope of Lynching by villagers on Day 3
Cailín (Ranger): Drowned by wolves on Night 4
Naria (Werewolf): Fought to death by villagers and pigs on Day 4
Márcolië Lamen (Ordinary Villager): Cooked into spaghetti and eaten by wolves on Night 5
the guy who be short (Werewolf): Became the wolf who be lynched by villagers on Day 5

Wolves: 1
Villagers: 9

It is now Night 6. Seer and Wolf, please send me your names.

EDIT: Hunter too. Sorry I forgot to mention you

[Meneltarmacil]

KA-BOOOOOOOOOOOM!!!

The sound woke everybody up in the early hours of the morning. They rushed to investigate the noise.

The villagers soon found what was left of malkatoj’s house aflame. Moving inside, they passed what was left of several strange miracle devices (which according to Gil-Galad were originally in somekindofhedral shapes) that had apparently all been detonated at once. The entire room was in disarray.

At the back of the house lay the remains of malkatoj herself, who had been holding a strange crystal-glass contraption along with a book titled “Interpreting Visions: What every Seer Must Know.” Malka had indeed been the village Seer.

“Oh, my,” Kath remarked. “This is certainly a tragedy.”

“I guess there’s only one thing we can do for her now,” said Garin.

Seeing the look in his eye, Nilpaurion Felagund agreed. “It’s only fair,” he replied.

The villagers began searching the house for loose change.

Living:
mormegil- Elven smith
Garin- Truffle hunter with a half a dozen pigs and no social manners
Nilpaurion Felagund- Escaped thrall from Tol-in-Gaurhoth
dancing spawn of ungoliant- Florist
The Saucepan Man- Earnest and learned young man of the law
Gil-Galad- Shape-Analyst
Glirdan- Crazy guy down the street
Formendacil- Village historian
Kath- Local investigator into the paranormal

Dead:
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Speared by wolves on Night 1
AbercrombieOfRohan (Ordinary Villager): Treed and crushed by villagers on Day 1
Aiwendil (Ordinary Villager): Crushed by a tree chopped down by the werewolves onto his house on Night 2
Shelob (Ordinary Villager): Hung by villagers on Day 2
Valier (Ordinary Villager): Coconutted by wolves on Night 3
WaynetheGoblin (Ordinary Villager): Hung on a +9 Rope of Lynching by villagers on Day 3
Cailín (Ranger): Drowned by wolves on Night 4
Naria (Werewolf): Fought to death by villagers and pigs on Day 4
Márcolië Lamen (Ordinary Villager): Cooked into spaghetti and eaten by wolves on Night 5
the guy who be short (Werewolf): Became the wolf who be lynched by villagers on Day 5
malkatoj (Seer): Blown up by wolf on Night 6

Wolves: 1
Villagers: 8

It is now Day 6. Villagers may commence posting.

[The Saucepan Man]

We owe a great debt to malkatoj, who gave her life to save this village. Let us repay her by finishing the job for her.

Day 5 voting? Well it's traditional for me to give it, I suppose, even though it won't tell us much.

1. Malkatoj for TGWBS (TGWBS-1)
2. Nilpaurion for TGWBS (TGWBS-2)
3. Garin for TGWBS (TGWBS-3)
4. Formendacil for TGWBS (TGWBS-4)
5. TGWBS for mormegil (TGWBS-4, mormegil-1)
6. Mormegil for TGWBS (TGWBS-5, mormegil-1)
7. Glirdan for TGWBS (TGWBS-6, mormegil-1)
8. Dancing spawn for TGWBS (TGWBS-7, mormegil-1)
9. SpM for TGWBS (TGWBS-8, mormegil-1)
10. Gil-Galad for dancing spawn (TGWBS-8, mormegil-1, dancing spawn-1)

Did not vote: Kath

The only real point of discussion is Gil's vote, but my view on that is that it could go either way. He is either attempting a clever bluff, or he really didn't pay attention to what was happening yesterday. Gil is capable of either. Kath's non-vote (and non-appearance yesterday) doesn't tell us anything, as she warned beforehand that she would be out of town for the day (see the admin thread).

Reminder of what we know (Gil, take note ):

Hunter: Glirdan

Known not to be Wolves, but may be the Cobbler:
The Saucepan Man
Mormegil
Formendacil
Nilpaurion Felagund

Unknown:
Dancing spawn of ungoliant
Kath
Garin
Gil-Galad

If we were to make random choices, we would have a 1 in 4 chance of finding the Wolf today, a 1 in 3 chance tomorrow and a 50:50 chance the day after that. Only, by that time, there might well be two innocents facing a Wolf and a Cobbler. Village loses. And I am not sure that we have a much better chance if we use what has been said and done so far to guide us. Let's be honest. The remaining Wolf could be any one of the unknowns. We can use the record, to an extent. But I think that reasonable cases could be made for, and against, each one of them. Add to that a Cobbler and a Wolf desperately trying to lead us in astray and things are rather more desperate than Senor mormegil suggested yesterday.

So, I suggest that we try to organise a double lynching today and, if necessary, another one tomorrow. We then give ourselves (all else being equal) a 50:50 chance of finding a Wolf today. And, even if we are wrong, we have a 100% chance of killing the Wolf tomorrow. Assuming that we can avoid the tricksiness of the Cobbler and the remaining Wolf, that is. So we need to be careful in our organisation.

What say you all?