Tol-in-Gaurhoth XVI: No man is an Island

[Amanaduial the archer]

The three have been fairly silent and while Malkatoj has said it is because of his schooling, I can't recall if TGWBS or Amanduial had any excuses.

Not on this thread, no, but I did comment on that on the general Tol-in-Gaurhoth discussion thread: I am a student, and due to other extra-curricular activities (such as the Shostakovichfest concert and rehersals all day today, hence my only coming on just now), I have rather limited time to post. I'm doing my best

So the votes stand thus so far:

Nilpaurion Felagun - 4 (Farael, Alcarillo, Valier, Menel)
Naria - 1 (Lhuna)
TGWBS - 1 (Malkatoj)
Kuru - 1 (TGWBS)

Left to vote: 8 people (Nilpaurion, Rune, Naria, Amana, Kuruharan, Azaelia, Cailin, Gurthang).

Looks like 'The Carnivore' as he bills himself is making a comeback with four votes. However, I'm afraid I must stand with what my standing opinion throughout the game: I really do not consider Nilp to be a wolf. He's just too blatant - I honestly do not think there could be a double bluff that elaborate. Although it may annoy him, I am not a Nilp-basher. Gurthang and Kuru pointed out the interesting point (oh, vocabulary failure) that his death could answer some interesting questions - but I won't vote for him on this basis. However much it may annoy him, I stand by my earlier words: I refuse to vote for Nilp mainly because he told us to!

People I have consistently been suspicious of so far include Lhuna and Cailin. Now, my suspicions on Cailin are waning - she's just so damn rational! - but Lhuna...ah, Lhuna, Lhuna, Lhuna. Like Cailin said, she did display something of a change in attitude today - and she seems rather fixed on throwing all suspicions of her guilt onto Nilp, constantly 'warning' us about him - where he's one villager whose guilt I really doubt. I'm not sure: three quarters of an hour left, I'm not sure I'll vote quite yet, leave it for a wee while, but I've got my eye on you. Two people who I would really like to hear more from are Naria and Azaelia. Sneakily quiet, and I should like to see how Naria responds to all the suspicion raised around her - I must admit, a very good case is being made against her, and it is most convincing - she is currently in line with Lhuna for my vote today...

[Naria]

Since she isn't going to be back on I'll generalize my comment. I really don't know were she came up with that analysis. It looks to me like she is trying desperately to take certain eyes off of her. She has done a complete 160 and has said nothing about me up till today and vaguely goes into why she suspects me and votes for me. That my fellow villagers is suspicious behaviour. Then her abnormal behaviour in her last couple of posts. She is either using some really good hallucinogenic ingredients in her pizzas or she's trying to tell us something-wolf?

Well the time is ticking away I have too go and close up my store for today. I have suspicions about Luna(obvious reasons) and a couple of others that I don't want to go into right now. I will maintain my opinion about Nilpand vote for him today.

++Nilpaurion Felagund

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

++Malkatoj

I have had great doubts about this one, but Malkatoj remaines my main suspect so she will get my vote. I was very close to voting Nilp , but I had to great doubt about Garin's motivation to vote for Gil-Galad.

I am sorry if this is to no help at all, but I would just not feel right to vote Nilp, nomather how helpfull his death would be.

[Cailín]

I have made up my mind.

++NARIA

I am pretty sure there is something wrong with her and though I am still more or less in favour of lynching Nilp as well, I find Naria appearing far more guilty right now.

Plus, I don't like how the voting is going in one singular direction.

Originally Posted by Amanaduial

Like Cailin said, she did display something of a change in attitude today - and she seems rather fixed on throwing all suspicions of her guilt onto Nilp, constantly 'warning' us about him

To me it seemed as if Lhuna were defending Nilp. However, I suggest the Seer dreams of Lhuna toNight, if he / she has not done so before, just so we can be sure.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Amanduial

Not on this thread, no, but I did comment on that on the general Tol-in-Gaurhoth discussion thread: I am a student, and due to other extra-curricular activities (such as the Shostakovichfest concert and rehersals all day today, hence my only coming on just now), I have rather limited time to post. I'm doing my best

My bad then, I offer you my sincere apologies.

With regards to the voting today, while I'm not trying to sway anyone into voting like I did (specially as it seems Nilp will be lynched without my efforts anyway) I'd like to note that for as long as Nilp lives, he'll be a distraction. And distractions only help a group of two among the fifteen of us. The same two those thirteen innocents remaining want to see dead.

I hate to compromise so deeply against anyone as should Nilp be innocent I'll look twice as suspicious, but read the logic into my words and remember that hindsight is always 20/20.... I think Nilp is suspicious and makes for a great distraction and barring a majour breakdown by one of the werewolves I think he should be lynched so that we can move on. As Kuruharan said, sometimes it's best to deal with the obvious rather than entretain weird theories that in the end favour the werewolves.

[Kuruharan]

I have a hard time believing you’re incapable of doing anything.

For my next trick, I shall (unlike a balrog) sprout wings and fly to the moon!

Enough of this nonsense! I’m confident of learning something useful that will stand us in good stead for the future if Nilp is guilty or not.

++ Nilpaurion

I’m completely perplexed by the attitudes of some people who think finding out information about a suspicious character is not a worthwhile motive for voting. They instead vote for somebody else based upon as little or even less evidence. They feel better about this because they thought it up themselves.

That seems suspicious.

[Gurthang]

I am also having some trouble getting throught to the Downs'. Not that I've had a lot to say.

++Nilpaurion Felagund

If you didn't know that was coming, you weren't here toDay. I really hope this clears the air a little.

[Amanaduial the archer]

So far...

Nilpaurion Felagund - 7 (Farael, Alcarillo, Valier, Menel, Kuru, Naria, Gurthang)
Naria - 2 (Lhuna, Cailin)
TGWBS - 1 (Malkatoj)
Kuru - 1 (TGWBS)
Malkatoj - 1 (Rune)

Looks like the Carnivore is for the chop - and foils on your, Farael, you're being very persuasive! However, I continue to believe that Nilp is not a wolf, even if he is a 'distraction' - looks like he's headed for the gallows without my help anyway.

This vote is...well, somewhat uncertain, to say the least. But I'm afraid as I can't seem to form as coherent an arguement against anyone else especially in the short time we have left of the Day, I am voting for...

++Lhuna

EDIT: crossposted with Kuru and Gurthang.

[Cailín]

For my next trick, I shall (unlike a balrog) sprout wings and fly to the moon!

Ay, I would indeed not be surprised.

I’m completely perplexed by the attitudes of some people who think finding out information about a suspicious character is not a worthwhile motive for voting. They instead vote for somebody else based upon as little or even less evidence. They feel better about this because they thought it up themselves.

Hmm are you referring to my vote, Kuru? For I believe that I was first to suggest lynching Nilpaurion toDay for information and I do consider information the most valuable thing one can obtain in this game. However, the case against Naria is - in my opinion - stronger and if she's not a wolf, I shall eat my... Well, let's not make hasty promises. I feel bad about voting for Nilpaurion because I thought it up and everyone just jumped on the bandwagon. Now that makes one suspicious.

Farael has it right though. Lynching Nilp will definitely clear the air.

[Gurthang]

Votes:

Nilpaurion Felagun - 7 (Farael, Alcarillo, Valier, Menel, Naria, Kuru, Gurthang)
Naria - 2 (Lhuna, Cailin)
TGWBS - 1 (Malkatoj)
Kuru - 1 (TGWBS)
malkatoj - 1 (Rune)
Lhuna - 1 (Amana)

With Nilp, who probably won't vote, and Azaelia left.

If Nilp is a wolf, especially if he is a wolf, I will be looking at the ones who voted for him. There was enough suspicion and likelyhood that he would be lynched that it would be an easy vote for a fellow wolf to make.

[Amanaduial the archer]

Farael has it right though. Lynching Nilp will definitely clear the air.

Yes, but it does rather leave us with a problem in that we're lynching one who could well be a villager, and who I think probably is; kinda brings us closer to the wolves in numbers, even if there are only two of them left. And as for bandwagoning - unfortunately, six people followed you in voting for Nilp and only a third of that number could possibly be wolves. Doesn't really narrow it down enough, unfortunately.

EDIT: crossposted with Gurthang.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Amanaduial the archer

Yes, but it does rather leave us with a problem in that we're lynching one who could well be a villager, and who I think probably is; kinda brings us closer to the wolves in numbers, even if there are only two of them left. And as for bandwagoning - unfortunately, six people followed you in voting for Nilp and only a third of that number could possibly be wolves. Doesn't really narrow it down enough, unfortunately.

I stand by my words and I will die for them if needed be. If we do not lynch Nilp, it will be all too easy for a werewolf to keep bringing his name up as I believe most of us think him at least plausibly werewolvish. I say lets get rid of him now because later it WILL be getting REALLY close to the wolves number... we still are too many for them to come out and eat us all.

[Formendacil]

As the third day following the death of Formendacil drew to a close, the village was no closer to having definitely ousted a Werewolf than it had been any of the days previous. Of course, most of the villagers were quite certain that they had found a Werewolf, but persuading people that their pet theories were rational and right was about as easy as pulling teeth…

One of the most popular theories of the day was that if Nilpaurion was so insistent on proclaiming himself a carnivore, then they ought to give him what he was asking for, and lynch him. Even if he was innocent, the proponents of that opinion reasoned, it would clear up a lot of the confusion, and possibly shine a light on the Werewolves’ voting pattern. And so what if there were still two Werewolves in the village? The ranger, whoever he or she was, had protected them the night before.

Even as the villagers did their best to remain rational and discerning, the pressure they had been under for several days was beginning to tell. Amanaduial and Rune were not speaking to each other. The Guy Who Be Short, who was normally a cheerful and talkative fellow, had become rather sullen and silent. Valier had taken to drinking, joining Azaelia in the town “drunk tank”- except that Azaelia, under the stress, had sworn off drink, and was actually succeeding in having less than four ales a day. Lhunardawen was perhaps the one most affected, for she had started to howl, as if she were a wolf, and had begun to laugh at just about any suggestion made.

“It must be a sign of wolfishness,” said Naria spitefully, since Lhuna’s pet theory of the day had been that Naria was a Werewolf.

“I think it’s just heredity,” said Farael. “It’s not that different than Nilp’s carnivore fixation.”

“Then they’re both Werewolves,” said Malkatoj. “Problem solved. Let’s lynch them.”

“Now, now!” said Valier. “Tha’s againsht the rulesh… On’y one pershon a day!”

“Drunk though she is,” said Gurthang, “that is what we decided when this crisis started! Anyone who wants to change it must be a Werewolf looking to kill off more Villagers.”

“Are you calling me a Werewolf?” demanded Malkatoj.

“If he is, so what?” said Kuruharan. “There’s something about you that doesn’t sit right with me…”

“If you don’t care for my personal philosophy, say so!” replied the professor. “What that has to with the situation at hand, I don’t know!”

“You can learn a lot about people by looking at what they believe in,” said Alcarillo.

“Yes, and don’t think I haven’t been watching you, Mr. Moneybags!” retorted Kuruharan.

In the end, although about half of the village did not support a bandwaggon to lynch Nilpaurion, their votes were scattered and not a single one of their candidates came close to the number of votes that Nilpaurion garnered.

And so the village marched him up to the noose, and placed it around his neck.

“Any last words, Werewolf?” said Meneltarmacil.

“I am a carnivore, not a Werewolf,” declaimed Nilpaurion proudly. “I am no more harmful than the carnivorous ranch dog that keeps Gurthang company at night. I want the entire village to know that I go to my death with my head upright and my conscience clear, knowing that I die for a noble cause, to help my friends and neighbours find the vile killer that killed the noble Formendacil, and have since gone on to kill the village.

“I die knowing that I have done all I can to help in this matter, that I have lived a good and upright life, that I have no shirked my duty or hid in the face of danger, that I have, in fact, braved the dangers of teasing my silly Lhunatic sister. I go knowing that my memory shall not be soiled by unseemly work or unnecessary seriousness, but that I have done my foremost to spread goofiness, oddity, and good-hearted fun.

“I ask the forgiveness of the Valar and of the One Himself: Eru, whom I dare name in my last hour, that all of you who have voted for me in good faith shall come under no cruel judgement in the hereafter as a result, but that when we are all reunited in Arda Remade, that we shall remember these times with amusement, and all sorrow be forgotten.

“I consign my spirit to the judgement of the Valar, and I go forth from the Circles of Arda knowing that when the Second Music is sung, and Arda Remade created, that I shall run with Huan and the Hounds of Oromë, and follow the cry of the Valaróma. May Elbereth protect you all from the Wolves of Sauron!”

“Are you done yet?” growled Kuruharan.

“Yes, I think that’s about it. Does anyone have a message for me to pass on to Formendacil, Gil-galad, or Eluchíl?”

The village looked at him stonily.

“I’m done,” he said to his executioners.

The box was kicked out from beneath his feet, the rope when taut, and Nilpaurion was dead. Nothing happened.

“He’s not a Werewolf,” said Amanaduial, “he’s just an ORDINARY VILLAGER.”

“Oh, Nilp…” said Lhuna. “You IDIOT!”

DAY 3 is over, NIGHT 4 has begun.

Werewolves, Ranger, and Seer, I need your nightly picks.

~Michael A. Joosten - WW XVI Moderator~

[Formendacil]

Due to unexpected burps in Formendacil's real life work schedule, NIGHT 4, our currect phase, will be about 2.5 hours shorter than normal, with DAY 4 being correspondingly longer.

Narration on the opening of DAY 4 may be postponed about ten hours, but the pertinent information will be posted in time.

~Michael A. Joosten - WW XVI Moderator~

[Formendacil]

The sun was rising again over the village that would someday be known as Dol-in-Gaurhoth. The villagers, over-confident from the Werewolves' lack of success the night before, rose expecting to find things as they had the morning before.

But such was not to be the case...

As the villagers gathered in the village square, and casually took their morning head count, they soon realised that one of their number was missing. After some frantic checking to see who was there, and who wasn't, it soon became apparent that the Werewolves had taken Valier from their midst.

Together, the villagers made their way to Valier's home, but there was no sign of her there, dead or alive. There was, however, signs of an attempted flight from the village. Clothes were scattered on the floor, cupboards were thrown open, there was hardly any food to be found, and things were in total disarray.

"Here's all the stuff she was planning to take," said Farael, after a bit of searching. He held up a sack of food, clothing, and other essentials, apparently abandoned by her back door.

"Let's check out the brewery," said Lhunardawen. "It's rather apparent that she isn't here."

"Why would she go to the brewery if she was planning to flee?" asked Gurthang.

"I don't know," said Lhuna, "maybe she needed something from there. It's not like she would have left the village without this sack. It's leagues from any other settlement."

"She may have wanted some of her brewing equipment, or maybe some ale for the journey," suggested Cailin.

And so the villagers made their way to the brewery, and found to their startlement that the door was ajar. Cautiously, they made their way in. It was not long before they found Valier's body, sunk at the bottom of a vat of ale. Once again, the Werewolves had left them a message.

Stubborn little buggers, aren't you, Men of the West?

Well, no matter. Yet another of your number is down. And another soon will be. Your chances of finding us seem not to improve. You really ought to leave while you still can. Rhovanion WILL be ours.

The Werewolves in Your Midst.

P.S. Try the new brew, it's deliciously zesty!

"Eeww!!!" said The Guy Who Be Short. "That is just plain sick. At least she died INNOCENT."

"I wonder why the Wolves would have killed Valier," mused Kuruharan. "Let's think back over who she accused, and see if we can find a pattern."

"Or maybe they just killed her to throw us off by making us think that," said Gurthang. "You're too smart for your own good, Master Dwarf!"

And so began yet another day of debate...


Night 4 is over, Day 4 is begun.

You may begin posting.

Those alive:

Meneltarmacil - Creepy Guy on the Edge of Town
Cailin - Noble Kleptomaniac
Azaelia - Town Drunk
Farael - Worm Hunter
TGWBS - Hat Maker
Rune – Misplaced Hobbit Peace Activist
Alcarillo - Moneylender
Lhunardawen - Potion-Pizza Person
Gurthang - Rancher
Amanaduial - Northman Travel Guide
Naria - Store Proprietor
Kuruharan - Dwarven Alcohol and Weapons Merchant
Malkatoj – Philosophy Professor

Those dead:

Formendacil - Moderator - Killed by Werewolves, Night 1
Gil-Galad - Shrubber - Ordo - Lynched by Village, Day 1
Kath - Gongfarmer - Cobbler - Killed by Werewolves, Night 2
Garin - Horse Loaner - Werewolf - Killed by Vilager, Day 2
Eluchil - Mild-Mannered Innkeeper - Ordo - Killed "Accidentally" by Werewolf, Day 2
NIGHT 3 - NO DEATH
Nilpaurion Felagund - Suspicious Carnivore - Ordo - Lynched by Village, Day 3
Valier - Brewmaster - Ordo - Killed by Werewolves, Night 4

[the guy who be short]

Hourra!

I mean, er, oh dear, another innocent dead.

Except that this unexpectedly early daybreak gives me a chance to post in the early morning, as well as the late evening, of the day.

Which means what you've all been waitin' for: Analyses.

I'll be on the case of Valier's death, and going over Nilps comments, in the course of the next two hours. Do not expect this everyday.

[Kuruharan]

Well, I have to confess that yesterDAY turned out pretty much as I was expecting…unfortunately. Still, I now feel pretty confident about one conclusion and I think it was probably worth it.

Since our Seer has apparently not received an answer yet, I think I will wait a bit before offering an opinion about where to go from here (probably about the nine hours mentioned by our moderator).

I am a little surprised the wolves picked Valier. I’ll go review her posts and suggest all other honest souls do the same.

[Gurthang]

Know innocents in bold; known wolf (and cobbler) is underlined.

Day 1

Azaelia - Menel (Menel-1)
Alcarillo - Garin (Menel-1, Garin-1)
Nilp - Nilp (Menel-1, Garin-1, Nilp-1)
Lhuna - Nilp (Nilp-2, Menel-1, Garin-1)
Amana - Kuru (Nilp-2, Menel-1, Garin-1, Kuru-1)
Gil-galad - Nilp (Nilp-3, Menel-1, Garin-1, Kuru-1)
malkatoj - Nilp (Nilp-4, Menel-1, Garin-1, Kuru-1)
Farael - Eluchil (Nilp-4, Menel-1, Garin-1, Kuru-1, Eluchil-1)
Naria - Nilp (Nilp-5, Menel-1, Garin-1, Kuru-1, Eluchil-1)
Rune - Gil-Galad (Nilp-5, Menel-1, Garin-1, Kuru-1, Eluchil-1, Gil-Galad-1)
TGWBS - Gil-Galad (Nilp-5, Gil-Galad-2, Menel-1, Garin-1, Kuru-1, Eluchil-1)
Menel - Gil-Galad (Nilp-5, Gil-Galad-3, Menel-1, Garin-1, Kuru-1, Eluchil-1)
Valier - Eluchil (Nilp-5, Gil-Galad-3, Eluchil-2, Menel-1, Garin-1, Kuru-1)
Kuru - Garin (Nilp-5, Gil-Galad-3, Eluchil-2, Garin-2, Menel-1, Kuru-1)
Cailín - Gil-Galad (Nilp-5, Gil-Galad-4, Eluchil-2, Garin-2, Menel-1, Kuru-1)
Gurthang - Gil-Galad (Nilp-5, Gil-Galad-5, Eluchil-2, Garin-2, Menel-1, Kuru-1)
Garin - Gil-Galad (Gil-Galad-6, Nilp-5, Eluchil-2, Garin-2, Menel-1, Kuru-1)

No vote:
Kath
Eluchil

Day 2
Alcarillo - Cailín (Cailín-1)
Lhuna - Eluchil (Cailín-1, Eluchil-1)
Amana - Lhuna (Cailín-1, Eluchil-1, Lhuna-1)
Nilp - Cailín (Cailín-2, Eluchil-1, Lhuna-1)
Farael - Garin (Cailín-2, Eluchil-1, Lhuna-1, Garin-1)
malkatoj - Lhuna (Cailín-2, Lhuna-2, Eluchil-1, Garin-1)
Rune - Garin (Cailín-2, Lhuna-2, Garin-2, Eluchil-1)
TGWBS - Lhuna (Lhuna-3, Cailín-2, Garin-2, Eluchil-1)
Naria - Cailín (Lhuna-3, Cailín-3, Garin-2, Eluchil-1)
Azaelia - Garin (Lhuna-3, Cailín-3, Garin-3, Eluchil-1)
Cailín - Eluchil (Lhuna-3, Cailín-3, Garin-3, Eluchil-2)
Valier - Garin (Garin-4, Lhuna-3, Cailín-3, Eluchil-2)
Kuru - Garin (Garin-5, Lhuna-3, Cailín-3, Eluchil-2)
Garin - Lhuna (Garin-5, Lhuna-4, Cailín-3, Eluchil-2)
Gurthang - Garin (Garin-6, Lhuna-4, Cailín-3, Eluchil-2)

No vote:
Eluchil
Menel

Day 3

Acarillo - Nilp (Nilp-1)
Lhuna - Naria (Nilp-1, Naria-1)
malkatoj - TGWBS (Nilp-1, Naria-1, TGWBS-1)
TGWBS - Kuru (Nilp-1, Naria-1, TGWBS-1, Kuru-1)
Valier - Nilp (Nilp-2, Naria-1, TGWBS-1, Kuru-1)
Menel - Nilp (Nilp-3, Naria-1, TGWBS-1, Kuru-1)
Farael - Nilp (Nilp-4, Naria-1, TGWBS-1, Kuru-1)
Naria - Nilp (Nilp-5, Naria-1, TGWBS-1, Kuru-1)
Rune - malkatoj (Nilp-5, Naria-1, TGWBS-1, Kuru-1, malkatoj-1)
Cailin - Naria (Nilp-6, Naria-1, TGWBS-1, Kuru-1, malkatoj-1)
Kuru - Nilp (Nilp-6, Naria-2, TGWBS-1, Kuru-1, malkatoj-1)
Gurthang - Nilp (Nilp-7, Naria-2, TGWBS-1, Kuru-1, malkatoj-1)
Amanaduial - Lhuna (Nilp-7, Naria-2, TGWBS-1, Kuru-1, malkatoj-1, Lhuna-1)

No vote:
Nilp
Azaelia

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

I am a little surprised the wolves picked Valier. I’ll go review her posts and suggest all other honest souls do the same.

Kuru, I'm sorry, but I just can't do that. If you are a wolf, we would be playing into your hands. You kill someone who is completely on the wrong path, then suggest that we look at what they thought, thus leading us to information that is wrong.

Now, I'm not saying that you are a wolf, and I'm not saying that Valier was wrong; I'm saying that we have to make our own conclusions and review what we think is pertinent. I think that asking everyone to all do one thing is not a good idea. I will continue to look at voting, but you may be one who I focus on, sooner or later.

For now, I'm dividing the village into two groups. Nilp voter... and everyone else.

Voted for Nilp yesterday: Alcarillo, Valier, Menel, Farael, Naria, Kuru, Gurthang

Voted for others: Lhuna, malkatoj, TGWBS, Menel, Rune, Cailín, Amanaduial

I'd be willing to bank quite a bit that there is a wolf who voted for Nilp, since it was pretty apparent early on that he would be lynched. Both wolves might even be in that group. But, I'm thinking that the other wolf voted for the first one. That would make perfect sense to me, since there was very little chance that the wolf receiving the vote would be lynched, and it will make the other look less suspicious if either is found.

So here are pairs. The first is someone who voted for Nilp, the second is one who voted for the first.

Naria-Lhuna, Naria-Cailín, and Kuru-TGWBS.

That's my theory so far, I'll be back later to look into each of these pairs.

[Cailín]

My apologies, fellow villagers...

I know it is a rather bad day to be absent, but something unbelievably stressful came up in real life, and since I will have to get up at 5:00AM (GMT+1) tomorrow morning, I shall be going to bed in a short while and not be on all day. I might make it online tomorrow evening, but then again I might not.

I am not surprised and yet rather surprised at the werewolves' kill. Sure, we all considered Valier a known innocent, but I would think the wolves would be more interested in finding out the Seer (which might have been Valier, but I for one would never believe it since she has been expressing doubts about me since Day 1, yet never said anything conclusive and she would have dreamed of me by now, were she indeed the Seer. In this theory, it does not even matter whether I am innocent or not. They might have thought her the Seer for picking up on Garin so early, though.)

Anyway, I shall be voting for Naria, my main suspect yesterDay and toDay. I just think she seems most wolvish.

++NARIA

Looking forward to TGWBS's contributions, at last. And again, I'm dreadfully sorry.

[Kuruharan]

Kuru, I'm sorry, but I just can't do that. If you are a wolf, we would be playing into your hands. You kill someone who is completely on the wrong path, then suggest that we look at what they thought, thus leading us to information that is wrong.

People would fall into roughly three categories: those heavily suspected by Valier, those only mildly suspected by Valier, and those not suspected at all. Those not suspected at all would be the ones to be the most interested in because they would have the least to lose by killing her because they would be in the least danger. I was hoping to have at least one other brain than just mine reviewing the evidence, if for no other reason to ensure nothing was overlooked. However, having other ideas from the evidence would also be good. Believe me, stifling ideas was the least of my intents.

Why are you so critical of others offering suggestions?

[the guy who be short]

So why did the village end up lynching Nilp? What evidence was against him, how strong, and where the bandwagons? *Smokes Sherlock pipe*


Cailin is the first to mention Nilp on Day 3, and to offer evidence against him. I'm not too sure I feel this is at all incriminating, as Cailin seems to be experiencing a knee-jerk reaction - Nilp voted for her the day before.

Gurthang then latches onto Cailin's theory.

More or less half the village accuses Nilp at this point, now that the ball is rolling.

Farael is the first to say something to the contrary of puclib opinion, claiming he is "not sold on Nilp".

Nilp forms a list of those he believes innocent, including Rune, Valier, Lhuna and Kuru, whom he is less sure of. Then he thanks Farael for not believing in his guilt - and says to "look to Alcarillo."

... And now I am being whisked away. Sorry, I'm unable to complete this. For the record, I think Valier was killed as she was fairly quiet, offering few leads. I would have been a good choice, had so much guilt not been cast upon me. In any case, if somebody could complete the analysis of Nilp, and analyse both Valier's posts and Alcarillo's (I believe very much in honouring the wishes of the dead), that would be great.

[the guy who be short]

Apparently I have a few more minutes left. The analysis of Nilp will however take too long, and thus far appears fruitless. And while I hardly trust Kuru, (ooh, we're a pair ) an analysis of Valier is a must. Plus, I have time for the 14 posts she's made. I will be going in reverse chronological order.

Her last post was a "safe" vote for Nilp, misguided but hardly remarkable.

Before this, she creates a list of people she believes to be innocent: Farael, Rune, Kuruharan, Gurthang
What's remarkable here is Kuruharan's comment above:

Those not suspected at all would be the ones to be the most interested in because they would have the least to lose by killing her because they would be in the least danger

He falls into this category. Scheming mind at work, anybody?
As for the others - Rune and Farael appear on Nilp's list too, and so I will presume innocent, as I will Gurthang.

Valier also declares these villagers to be puzzling: Alcarillo, Amanaduial, Azaelia, Naria. The other villagers she mentions are as follows: Menel - creepy, Cailin - innocent, TGWBS - odd but sound, Lhuna - unsure, Nilp - will vote for, Malkatoj - bad feeling.

An overview of her last analytical post then:

Innocent: Farael, Rune, Kuru, Gurthang, Cailin
Neutral: Alcarillo, Aman, Azaelia, Naria, TGWBS, Lhuna
Bad feelings: Menel, Nilp, Malkatoj



That is all. The theory I'm fondest of at the moment is that she struck a nerve. She voted Garin and, if somehow here list were more or less accurate in several aspects, she could be suspected of being the Seer. Which means Malkatoj and Menel bear looking into.

Right now, I feel analyses of Malkatoj and Alcarillo would be good things.

[the guy who be short]

With the last of my time, I shall analyse Malkatoj. I've had uneasy feelings for a while, so here goes.

So far, she has voted for me, Nilp and Lhuna. Though I have theories of my own concerning her vote for me, I shall of course keep them to myself, as it would be foolish to ask you all to accept my innocence. Analyses of the other two votes, then:

Day 2: malkatoj - Lhuna (Cailín-2, Lhuna-2, Eluchil-1, Garin-1) Lhuna appeared to be quite a popular choice on Day 2. If Malkatoj is a wolf, then Cailin's guilt is obviously implied here.

Day 1: malkatoj - Nilp (Nilp-4, Menel-1, Garin-1, Kuru-1) Sigh. I presume malkatoj has been in a village before? And, if so, should REALLY know that when Nilp says "kill me," it don't mean nothing, excuse the double negative. Not promising.



Now, I shall work backwards once more. Starting with a vote for me.

I said earlier that I'd probably vote for TGWBS unless something swayed me otherwise. Well, after looking over the thread, he still hasn't posted at all and I'm inclined to believe he's waiting to jump the bandwagon again.

Come now! Voting for somebody because they haven't said anything? Seems a little off to me. As for bandwaggoning again... I can hardly be said to have joined any bandwagons. Started, perhaps.

Before that, she says this:

TGWBS: I'm very suspicious of his almost complete lack of posting. Has anyone else noticed that he comes in every day with nothing to say except a bandwagon vote, no reasoning behind it? It's unnerving, and as of right now, he will probably get my vote.

Bandwagon votes? Where? No reasoning? Perhaps my Lhuna-vote didn't have an essay behind it, but my GG-vote hd clear rationale behind it.

She also mentions her uneasiness concerning Alcarillo, Lhuna, Gurthang and Nilp. She also claims that one of those who voted Garin would have been a wolf undercover.

That's all for the past two days. And, hypocritical as it may seem, she's a bit too quiet for my liking. Yes, I know, I know, but I do try...

[Amanaduial the archer]

ARGH, hate this site, just made a hugely long post and then it got deleted gah gah gah!!!

....*deep breaths*

Right.

From the beginning again then... *weeps*

Gurthang, I'm afraid I find the whole of your last post really rather baffling. Maybe it's just me. You say that Valier was on entirely the wrong track - what, simply because she voted for Nilp? Fair, I suppose - but there are deeper considerations, the most obvious ones being that Nilp was by no stretch of the imagination the only person she suspected, even if he was the one who she finally plumped for for the chop. I feel somewhat more inclined to go with Kuru on this one; indeed, Kuru's distinctions of those we maybe should consider looking at are...well, I couldn't put it better myself: "those heavily suspected by Valier, those only mildly suspected by Valier, and those not suspected at all. Those not suspected at all would be the ones to be the most interested in because they would have the least to lose by killing her because they would be in the least danger."

So, to consider Valier's last real analysis post, #244...well, unfortunately TGWBS has rather beaten me to alot of my analysis (apparently we were cross-posting before the untimely demise of my own post), but hey, I shall reiterate; why not...

Those who Valier said she was 'fairly sure' to be innocent consist of just three names (narrowing it down...not...): Rune, Kuru and Gurthang (what were you saying about her being entirely wrong, Gurthang? ). So we can presume solely on the basis of Valier's death that these three for now can be considered in the clear, and suitably un-lupine: she considered them innocent and therefore posed no threat to her.

To add a few additional notes to that, Rune could be considered to be especially in the clear: as well as being mentioned in the above cited post, he also vehemently proclaimed his belief in Valier’s own innocence in post #273. The faith was therefore mutual: neither posed any threat at all to the other, so, if Rune was a wolf, it would be a little pointless to kill her off, or at least, there would be other rather more suitable victims. On the other hand, however, Rune’s post did follow Valier’s chronologically: maybe, seeing that she had no suspicion of him, he gave her his firm vote of confidence, knowing that then to kill her off would throw no light of suspicion onto him at all, while bringing the ratio of wolves to villagers up – a cunning plan for a wolf. However, I think it is more likely that he is innocent based on the mutual faith that apparently existed between them (although I’m not entirely sure looking at the previous counter-argument…)

Also, I think this would be a suitable moment to mention Farael in the same breath as ‘innocent’: like Rune, he declared that he thought Valier to be innocent (post #241), but this time before Valier’s analytical post. She mentioned no suspicions of him at all, and, again, the lack of suspicion is mutual: there would really be little merit in killing someone who posed so little threat to you. So I think, again based on Valier’s death, that Farael is probably innocent.

As for those she suspected…well, here’s the section:

Meneltarmecil-This guy ...well gives me the creeps.I just don't get him yet he "Howls at the moon" is that a good sign really?

Cailin-I have been suspisious of her since the beginning,but theres not much to go on,she did vote for two innocents, and has been suspisious of me and defensive with anyone who accuses her.I think she is innocent though..safe for the day anyways.her defensiveness is a natural reaction of an innocent.

TGWBS-His lack of posts is odd,But his points on Lhuna are sound.

Lhunardawen-I have a feeling....don't quite know yet

Nilpaurion Felagund-My vote will more than likely be for him I don't believe the crazy stuff.I'm curious as to weather to lynch him to see,or go a little differently.

Malkatoj-I have a bbbaaddddd feeling about this one though I'm not sure I'll act on it yet,or if I should even.

So, Menel, Cailin, TGWBS, Lhun, Nilp and Malka – and yes, I am leaving Cailin on that list. Now, firstly I would like to point out that, obviously, Valier’s word can hardly be taken as Law here: for one thing, she suspects a known – and now dead – innocent. There is also the fact that some of her suspicions do seem, well, frankly a little suspect themselves: for example, her reasons for Malka consist quite simply of ‘a bad feeling’; similarly, Lhunardwen is accused on the basis of Valier’s gut feeling. Because of this, out of the list of six (five if we do not include the dear deceased, Nilp), these two would probably be least likely, in my opinion, to take her out if they were wolves. I mean, yes, on the one hand this could be considered a danger as, given a day or two, this ‘feeling’ could certainly develop into something more risky – maybe it would be best to take her out early. But, on the other hand, why bother? These two have had suspicion voiced from other corners – a ‘bad feeling’ was very unlikely to yield any solid votes, Valier even says this herself; there would be other, more ‘deserving’ candidates for the Night’s hunt than Valier on this basis. I therefore doubt that these two are wolves (again, strictly on the basis of Valier’s death), although I hold onto my previous suspicions about Lhun (even if they are now waning quite considerably!). And TGWBS – no, I believe, like several others in this village, Malka previously stated that she has not been in a village before, so she wouldn’t necessarily be familiar with Nilp’s behaviour.

Now, Cailin…well now. Valier, in the above mentioned post, seems actually rather unsure of Cailin, for the first time really. Maybe this could put Cailin in the clear (TGWBS, you go as far as to pretty much stating this as fact), as Valier was a decreased threat to her – BUT, she has posed a threat from the beginning: as Valier says, she has suspected Cailin “from the beginning”. Such suspicion could very easily re-emerge, I reckon – maybe Cailin, if she’s a wolf, thought that it would be best to get Valier out of the way just in case; because Valier had said her faith in Cailin was increasing, Cailin considered that she would not be as easily linkable to Valier’s death. I don’t know – but I reckon Cailin is still very much in the running for wolf-hood.

Another villager I would like to mention is Gurthang. Sure, Valier says she does not suspect him, thereby meaning she poses little or no threat to him – but remember, she’s got it wrong before, she could similarly be wrong about Gurthang’s innocence. I don’t know, I feel somewhat uneasy of him… He seems to be a prime bandwagoner, both on the mob that went after Nilp (latching onto Cailin’s theory), then – and this is an interesting one I think – onto Valier’s ‘bad feeling’ about Malkatoj (post #247)…but doesn’t really give any other explanation for this mention; he just pretty much repeats what Cailin said. I sense bandwagonage. Maybe he thought that, as Valier did not suspect him, she posed no threat, and that he could secure a pleasant relationship with her by agreeing with this feeling and maybe trying to incite feeling against another player in the hope that it would start a ball rolling – even though, again, there is no evidence. This seems like he was just trying to safely displace all suspicion onto Malka (although admittedly there was very little around him – but this could be like the paranoia Garin displayed), while almost in cahoots with Valier – meaning that killing her would be unlikely to be linked to him.

Hmm. I am unsure of how my vote will go for today; leave it for a few hours certainly… (although I shall be unable to post at the very, very end of the extended Day 4, due to it being about 12.30 my time – could we not leave it at 10.00pm GMT? It will confuse the days rather otherwise…*shrugs*)

(And crossposting with The Guy Who Be Short)

EDIT: And if anyone comments on me not adding much again, I'll 'ave yer! If that ain't a long post, I don't know what is!

[Farael]

Well, with time to post in his hands, TWBS seems much less suspicious all of a sudden. I guess I should say "although this might be an extremely laborated octuple-bluff in which he pretended to be busy so as to draw a little suspicion but then masterfully erased it as there was nothing hard to go against him, for he had said too little for anyone to make a clear case against him" but if such bluff was indeed intended, I shall cry defeat and plead for my sorry life.

No, I do not belive him to be guilty at the moment, which leads me to my second point. Who IS guilty after all? we have very little to go on, I believe. There are too many suspects, considering that there are only two werewolves in our midst. Does anyone else think that now it is the time for the Seer to step up? He can no longer ask Moderacil nor Garinwolf, but he ought to know three innocents at the very least. Add the Seer himself that would make it four known innoncents. Any information the Seer gets from a dead innocent is only that innocent's thoughts and therefore their guess would be as good as ours. I say now it is the time for the Seer to step forward and possibly the hunter. That'd make for five known innocents (if the seer does not know about any wolves) and the ranger can still protect the seer for two nights. Obviously, the wolves won't attack the hunter, although it would somewhat defeat the hunter's purpose. Yet it would still make for another known innocent and we need some of those right now.

Any werewolf trying to bluff as gifted will soon be dead, as we will lynch one and should that be found to be innocent, we will lynch the other and that is that.

Yes, the more I think about it the more convinced I am that this is the time for the seer to step forward. We have been lucky so far but we should not let the wolves gather any kind of momentum, I say let's finish them off while they are still down. And they are down now, we have gotten a werewolf and they killed the cobbler while we still have all our gifteds and the apprentice.

[Farael]

Cross posted with Amanduial... rather confusing post if you ask me as she seems to go back and forth between saying that Valier might have been on to something and that she was wrong.

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

People would fall into roughly three categories: those heavily suspected by Valier, those only mildly suspected by Valier, and those not suspected at all. Those not suspected at all would be the ones to be the most interested in because they would have the least to lose by killing her because they would be in the least danger. I was hoping to have at least one other brain than just mine reviewing the evidence, if for no other reason to ensure nothing was overlooked. However, having other ideas from the evidence would also be good. Believe me, stifling ideas was the least of my intents.

Why are you so critical of others offering suggestions?

Kuru, Kuru, Kuru. Your idea was not what I thought was bad; it was the 'all honest souls' part that caught my attention. As for you going at it alone, TGWBS had already stated his intent to review Valier, as he has now done, so I thought you two were enough to go on her. Although you are a pair, so maybe I'm wrong.

Also, I am thinking I will vote Naria. Others are suspicious of her, but I hadn't given her much thought until she turned up on my list yesterday after I analyzed voting. She was also a part of the Nilp bandwagon; then she turns up twice in my pairs (although not really her fault). Regardless of what I do end up deciding about my pairs, she is currently my top suspect and will likely get my vote. That is, unless something important is made known.

Now, as for my pairs.

Naria-Cailín
I am pretty much willing to take this pair out. Cailín has already voted for Naria. Bold move this early in the Day, especially when Naria was second yesterday (although with just two votes).

Naria-Lhuna
I've already stated my suspicion of Naria, and Lhuna has been brought up many times in these debates. Personally, I found Lhuna's first Day vote rather odd, as well as her sudden switch away from wanting to grant Nilpaurion's death wish. They did both vote for Nilp on Day 1, which, to me, points to them not both being wolves. Lhuna's vote for Naria yesterday was also pretty early, so that detracts from them being a pair.

Kuru-TGWBS
This is probably the most dangerous pair of the three. I was very suspicious with Guy's sudden attack on Kuru yesterday. It made a little sense, but came out of nowhere and seems to have vanished since. I am happy to finally see him talking though. Kuru keeps going back and forth in my mind. Some of the things he says strike me as strange, but then not so much the second time. His responses have seemed a little over-defensive also.


Some quick thoughts on others.

Nilp said look at Alcarillo. I doubt he's a wolf. He voted Garin early on Day one, when anything could happen. Not a great time to push a fellow wolf in the direction of the gallows.

Farael, I feel pretty close to the same about. He voted early for Garin the Day he died. He could have easily voted for another and hoped for the best. The same goes for Rune, who was the second to vote for Garin, which also tied him for the lead.

Originally Posted by Amanaduial

Gurthang, I'm afraid I find the whole of your last post really rather baffling. Maybe it's just me. You say that Valier was on entirely the wrong track - what, simply because she voted for Nilp?

Not really, I was just saying that I don't think we should focus completely on only what she said. And the rest is just a theory I've come up with, if you don't agree with it, that's fine. It's kind of a stretch anyway (which is why I am not voting by that theory alone).

[Gurthang]

Oh, and I didn't say I thought she was completely wrong. No, I thought I made that part quite clear.

Originally Posted by Gurthang

Now, I'm not saying that you are a wolf, and I'm not saying that Valier was wrong[emphasis mine]; I'm saying that we have to make our own conclusions and review what we think is pertinent. I think that asking everyone to all do one thing is not a good idea.

[Naria]

I think the seer should come forth and let us in on a few details that we're missing. We're all over the place in our thoughts for suspects. I am sticking with my thoughts for Lhuna unless something else comes up that interests me. For reasons that I had stated yesterday. I think Alcarillo may be a suspect too me as well. He voted for Garin on the first day, maybe a vote to throw us off the track, then went too vote for two innocents...hmmm.

I hope to hunt down the real wolves before they hunt down us.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Valier dead !

It seems pretty clear to me that the wolves choose Valier because of her allmost known innocens. I think it would be a mistake to read to much into her post's, she was wrong just as the rest of us (in her voting), thats why I belive she was no major thread to the wolves. They knew she would not likely be lynched and therefor was of no use to them.

For the first time I am beeing talked about, I am quite glad about it as it was quite strange for me not to be suspectet frome day one.

well I still suspect the same people, but I will save accusation for a while, I hope to returne with a magnificent post.

[Kuruharan]

it was the 'all honest souls' part that caught my attention.

If you didn’t have a problem with the idea, then why mention anything about it at all? You were either being obtuse or were just trying to stir up trouble for me. That part of my comment was obviously just a turn of phrase. You are growing ever more suspicious in my mind.

But, I have a few thoughts in regard to Valier other than what TGWBS said, although similar to Amanaduial. I’m actually more interested in some of the things she said in earlier days, these things can stay in the back of a person’s mind to be revived at a later date. If she had pointed a finger at a wolf early and then dropped it, the wolves might think this a good time to get rid of her. Skipping over the irrelevant posts…Valier’s attitude toward Cailín, I agree with Amanaduial, needs consideration. As has been said above she was always suspicious of Cailín (this started in post 150). This continued in post 180 where she mentioned Cailín alongside Garin and Lhuna. Then, suddenly in post 216, Valier said she trusted Cailín a little more and voted for Garin (huzzah). Then in her famous post 244 she says she believes Cailín is innocent. If Cailín is a werewolf, last NIGHT was the perfect time to rub out Valier. That, at least, is what I glean from Valier’s posting and I think it is something to keep in mind.

Regarding the Seer, while I remain hesitant, some of the points Farael made seem compelling to me. I think it is perhaps time for the Seer to step forward and tell what they know, especially if they know the name of a wolf (although I kind of doubt it). In fact, I’m rather afraid that the Seer is not currently in possession of a great deal of ground breaking information. There is a good chance that at least one person the Seer asked about is already dead. However, if we can assemble at least some semblance of a list of innocents, perhaps it will be enough to do us some good and the wolves won’t be able to kill the innocents off quickly enough to save themselves. I’m not so sure I agree about the Hunter…but it probably is time for the Seer. Unfortunately, unless we get a wolf the Seer (and inevitably the Apprentice) may not have a whole lot to work with. There is still a large element of risk with this.

I do have a theory I would like to propose, but I am going to wait until later in the DAY to do so in order to give the Seer a chance to reveal anything they may know.

[Farael]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

Unfortunately, unless we get a wolf the Seer (and inevitably the Apprentice) may not have a whole lot to work with. There is still a large element of risk with this

That is EXACTLY the point... the seer has nothing to work with right now, so he should come forward and share his information before he gets killed! we still have the apprentice and if we don't take any risks, we will not get those werewolves. They have shown to be quite cunning as I don't think anyone here can make a GOOD argument against anyone else. The only situation in which I'd tell the Seer not to bother is if two of the names he got from either Moderacil or Garin were of people who are dead now (or even the three of them) that would leave only one known innocent and the seer, which sort of defeats the purpose of my idea. If the Seer knows two live innocents (at the very least) he should come forward so that we have SOMETHING to work with.

But then it is all up to the Seer, not me, to decide.

[Formendacil]

Regarding this:

Originally Posted by Amanaduial the archer

Hmm. I am unsure of how my vote will go for today; leave it for a few hours certainly… (although I shall be unable to post at the very, very end of the extended Day 4, due to it being about 12.30 my time – could we not leave it at 10.00pm GMT? It will confuse the days rather otherwise…*shrugs*)

I may have been unclear, but Day 4 will end at the same time as all the other days have ended: 5:00 pm EST, 10:00 pm GMT. It is only the start of the day that is affected.

All future days will run on the same pattern- unless we go to Friday, in which case I may be extending Day 7 in a similar manner.

Also, none of this day-changing was in my original plan. When the game started, I never worked afternoons, but I am now working a couple, so my 3:00 local time start has been screwed up a bit.

~Michael A. Joosten - WW XVI Moderator~

[Gurthang]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

If you didn’t have a problem with the idea, then why mention anything about it at all? You were either being obtuse or were just trying to stir up trouble for me. That part of my comment was obviously just a turn of phrase. You are growing ever more suspicious in my mind.

As are you in mine. The fact that you said 'all honest souls' seemed to imply that anyone who did not follow your advice was not an honest soul. I didn't like the sound of that, and so I said so. I did not have a problem with anyone going back to review what Valier said; I had a problem with you implying that anyone who did not is dishonest, thus being a wolf.

Originally Posted by Amanaduial

Another villager I would like to mention is Gurthang. Sure, Valier says she does not suspect him, thereby meaning she poses little or no threat to him – but remember, she’s got it wrong before, she could similarly be wrong about Gurthang’s innocence. I don’t know, I feel somewhat uneasy of him… He seems to be a prime bandwagoner, both on the mob that went after Nilp (latching onto Cailin’s theory), then – and this is an interesting one I think – onto Valier’s ‘bad feeling’ about Malkatoj (post #247)…but doesn’t really give any other explanation for this mention; he just pretty much repeats what Cailin said. I sense bandwagonage. Maybe he thought that, as Valier did not suspect him, she posed no threat, and that he could secure a pleasant relationship with her by agreeing with this feeling and maybe trying to incite feeling against another player in the hope that it would start a ball rolling – even though, again, there is no evidence. This seems like he was just trying to safely displace all suspicion onto Malka (although admittedly there was very little around him – but this could be like the paranoia Garin displayed), while almost in cahoots with Valier – meaning that killing her would be unlikely to be linked to him.

Quite frankly, this is wrong. And I can prove it factually.

You say I was "latching onto Cailin's theory" concerning Nilp. Actually, I came up with my own theories about that, so if anything, Cailin was latching onto me.

My post #155

Originally Posted by Gurthang

Although, if Garin is a wolf, I'd look into Nilp actually being one also, which would make sense because of Garin saved Nilp with that last minute vote.

Cailin had mentioned Nilp thrice before that post. I'll post the core of them (where his name is). If you want to see the whole posts, just look up the numbers.

#107

Originally Posted by Cailin

How dreadfully selfish of you to start being all suicidal at a time like this! *sobs* Do you even care about the rest of us? Do you?!


Then again, this was not wholly unexpected. I’d advise everyone not to vote for Nilp, since his dead will tell us naught and by the by, he is just an attention-seeker, really. Moreover, we might be able to squeeze some sense out of one of his personalities before the end, so I vote for keeping him around for a little while longer.

#130

Originally Posted by Cailin

I have not much to go on, actually, just as much as all other innocents and may therefore seem rather judgmental. Though I do believe that Nilp is just being himself and I would have preferred to have kept him around for a few more days, he might as well be guilty and I could accept Lhuna’s vote as mere irritation. However, I have a rather high regard for our Potion Pizza Maker and would have thought her vote to be a little more… helpful.

#146

Originally Posted by Cailin

It seems like the wolves are on the good side for now, which is a positive thing! What luck they killed their only possible ally! Though I feel rather bad for killing Gil since he was just an innocent, let us be honest, we would have killed him eventually anyway. And I am rather curious to see whether Nilp continues along the same lines.

Those are not exactly the same thoughts I was having, quite the opposite in fact. I don't see how you can say that I was following him.

And as far as malkatoj is concerned, I did echo Valier's feelings. But I had already expressed slight concern about malkatoj Days before.

My post #137

Originally Posted by Gurthang

I'm thinking my vote will be for either Garin, Eluchil, or malkatoj. Garin just seems almost overly defensive. Eluchil was somewhat flip-floppy earlier, and malkatoj's vote for Nilp (the third for him) seemed an awful lot like a wolf starting a bandwagon.

Which, by the way, is a feeling I still can't quite shake. But that's not near enough to make a case on, and I've got a lot more evidence against others.


But, at the moment, I have another thing entirely that I want to happen. I have seen very strong Hunter hints from two different people. One of them is a wolf, the other is the true Hunter. I'd prefer to have them come out themselves, but if necessary, I will simply call them out.

[Lhunardawen]

Don't worry guys...the Lhunatic is not to return again. Not in this game, anyway.

I must admit that I find this killing of Valier last Night rather odd...unless the wolves thought she was gifted, which I rather doubt they did. This would be a more likely explanation for her death: to incriminate those she suspected and/or to clear those she trusted enough to consider innocent. Either way, I believe this was done to help the wolves. Likely she mentioned at least one wolf among those she pegged as innocent, and then the lycans took advantage of this to let themselves off the hook.

Kuru, Gurthang, Rune, Farael, and Cailin. Which is which, I wonder.

It's weird, but Gurthang, suddenly I also share your growing suspicions of Kuruharan. For one, senseless as this might be, I wonder that he is yet alive considering that someone of his caliber should have been killed early on by the wolves.

Second, I am a bit wary of how he seems to manage to sway the village into doing things the way he wants them done. There's Garin's lynching, then later on Nilp's lynching. I'm just afraid that we might end up lynching the innocents one by one under his subtle direction.

Now I'm sure this will elicit another tirade from our dear Dwarf, but that's another thing that scares me; he's being overly defensive. It just strikes me as suspicious that he makes himself look less capable of doing anything bold than we believe he can...indeed perhaps than he believes he himself can. Could be a way to keep the werewolves from killing him, but could also be a way to keep us from suspecting him any further.

He reminds me of a certain Eomer from a certain village called Loveland...too much...

But for the meantime, I'm willing to put this growing suspicion on hold. Which reminds me, Kuru, yesterDay you said this:

Unfortunately, I now have a theory that involves a couple of other people, but the only way I can think of to reliably test it is by killing Nilp even if he is innocent.

Whatever this is, I believe now is a good time to let it out, since my poor brother is already dead.

Enough Kuru talk for now, and let's focus on Naria, who in my mind is just becoming too clearly lupine. I'm nearly so convinced of her lycanthropy that I might be completely willing to drag her myself with me to my death, if needs be. Maybe it seems a little overdramatic, but I just feel that way.

I mean, seriously. And I'm not going to trust my mind's newbie rationalization any longer.

Originally Posted by Naria, post #282

Since she isn't going to be back on I'll generalize my comment. I really don't know were she came up with that analysis. It looks to me like she is trying desperately to take certain eyes off of her. She has done a complete 160 and has said nothing about me up till today and vaguely goes into why she suspects me and votes for me. That my fellow villagers is suspicious behaviour. Then her abnormal behaviour in her last couple of posts. She is either using some really good hallucinogenic ingredients in her pizzas or she's trying to tell us something-wolf?

Well the time is ticking away I have too go and close up my store for today. I have suspicions about Luna(obvious reasons) and a couple of others that I don't want to go into right now. I will maintain my opinion about Nilpand vote for him today.

My dear, if you really have something specific to say in your defense, you shouldn't let anyone's absence constrain you. It's seems to me just a pathetic attempt to save your hide for fear of slipping into a self-incriminating comment.

And what do you mean "obvious reasons" (for suspecting me)? Because I suspected you? There's just no way I can take eyes off of me with a suspicion of someone who was previously unsuspected.

There's really not much posts of you for me to analyze, but my radar is just beeping like crazy about you.

Originally Posted by Gurthang

But, at the moment, I have another thing entirely that I want to happen. I have seen very strong Hunter hints from two different people. One of them is a wolf, the other is the true Hunter. I'd prefer to have them come out themselves, but if necessary, I will simply call them out.

I've seen Hunter hints from just one person early on in the game. I wonder if we speak of the same...

[Lhunardawen]

Originally Posted by Farael

Does anyone else think that now it is the time for the Seer to step up? He can no longer ask Moderacil nor Garinwolf, but he ought to know three innocents at the very least. Add the Seer himself that would make it four known innoncents. Any information the Seer gets from a dead innocent is only that innocent's thoughts and therefore their guess would be as good as ours. I say now it is the time for the Seer to step forward...

...Yes, the more I think about it the more convinced I am that this is the time for the seer to step forward. We have been lucky so far but we should not let the wolves gather any kind of momentum, I say let's finish them off while they are still down. And they are down now, we have gotten a werewolf and they killed the cobbler while we still have all our gifteds and the apprentice.

The momentum thing is just too true...especially since I fear we're all being manipulated into doing things the werewolves want done...

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

Regarding the Seer, while I remain hesitant, some of the points Farael made seem compelling to me. I think it is perhaps time for the Seer to step forward and tell what they know, especially if they know the name of a wolf (although I kind of doubt it). In fact, I’m rather afraid that the Seer is not currently in possession of a great deal of ground breaking information. There is a good chance that at least one person the Seer asked about is already dead. However, if we can assemble at least some semblance of a list of innocents, perhaps it will be enough to do us some good and the wolves won’t be able to kill the innocents off quickly enough to save themselves. I’m not so sure I agree about the Hunter…but it probably is time for the Seer. Unfortunately, unless we get a wolf the Seer (and inevitably the Apprentice) may not have a whole lot to work with. There is still a large element of risk with this.

Dangerously risky, yes...

Originally Posted by Farael

That is EXACTLY the point... the seer has nothing to work with right now, so he should come forward and share his information before he gets killed! we still have the apprentice and if we don't take any risks, we will not get those werewolves.

Very true; I'm sure the werewolves are on the hunt for them...

Originally Posted by Naria

I think the seer should come forth and let us in on a few details that we're missing. We're all over the place in our thoughts for suspects. I am sticking with my thoughts for Lhuna unless something else comes up that interests me. For reasons that I had stated yesterday. I think Alcarillo may be a suspect too me as well. He voted for Garin on the first day, maybe a vote to throw us off the track, then went too vote for two innocents...hmmm.

Okay, she will.

I am the Seer.

I've been trying my best to hide beneath my usually suspicious self to stay alive as long as I can, and it has gotten me to this point. However, I am humble enough to admit that there's not much I can do with the information alone and on my own, and I have the timezones to blame much for this.

Alcarillo is innocent, as well as Gurthang. Also Valier, but that is not much help now for she had already been killed. A dead one guesses that Cailin too is innocent, but obviously we can't trust that completely. The information is not much, but I can't risk losing all these in one fell swoop, bringing you all back to square one.

If ever I am finally killed by the wolves, I lay the charge on the Apprentice and the known innocents, perhaps also the Hunter if they will, to take over the hunt for our foes. And surely I won't be around to see what becomes after this, for the night is deepening where I am. I trust you would believe me and wield the information properly, for the sake of the village.

May Eru have mercy on us all...except the werewolves, of course.

++NARIA --> I must admit that I haven't dreamt of her at all, but I remain hopeful...

[the guy who be short]

Thanks Loony. That's excellent. We can narrow our lists now, though we must sadly say goodbye to Alcarillo or Gurthang tonight. Hopefully, they aren't gifted. In any case, one more night is guaranteed to Lhuna, possibly two if the Ranger should live. I'd like you to ask about me (is that selfish? Oh well) and, more importantly, Kuru and Cailin. I'm not quite up to date with the rules - are you allowed to ask Garin again?

In any case, Naria has made her role quite clear. Let's not kill our hunter, please?

[the guy who be short]

Meneltarmacil
Cailin
Azaelia
Farael
TGWBS
Rune
Alcarillo - Innocent
Lhunardawen - Seer
Gurthang - Innocent
Amanaduial
Naria - Hunter?
Kuruharan
Malkatoj

[Amanaduial the archer]

Originally Posted by Farael

Cross posted with Amanduial... rather confusing post if you ask me as she seems to go back and forth between saying that Valier might have been on to something and that she was wrong.

Not so much confused as simply weighing up both arguments - I was pretty much thinking aloud. It's a habit when writing essays, I do all essay subjects and you only get half marks if you only analyse one side of the argument - RL habit

My, my, Gurthang, you just love that quote HTML, don't you - however, unless Lhuna is lying about being the seer (pretty much impossible, from the rules), we must accept that you are innocent, along with Alcarillo. Well, that's the Hunter's job cut out: how to protect two people at once? Which brings us to Naria, who is something of an enigma: From Cailin and The Mighty See's votes and suspicions (Lhuna - apparently I am forced to drop my suspicions on you as well. Ho hum, I will soon be forced to draw up a whole new line of suspects...), as well as the suspicion which gathered around her yesterday, Naria looked really rather guilty - yet now new clues hint that she is in fact probably the Hunter.

I hope to hunt down the real wolves before they hunt down us.

Well, it's hardly subtle.

However, this produces an interesting dilemma in itself: what if she's lying? Why would the Hunter, of all people, come forward?! My, my, the wolves will be spoilt for choice tonight, almost too good to be true for them - two known innocents, the Seer and the Hunter all arrive within ten posts of each other?! Not sure we'll even be able to gather much by who does die tonight, bearing in mind these four would all make blindingly obvious choices for any wolf, and between them those who have suspected them or been suspected by them pretty much comprises of the entire village. - I'm in school and so can't comment on this in the detail I would like right now (registration in five minutes...), but maybe I shall attempt to follow up tonight, depending on time.

Originally Posted by Lhuna

The momentum thing is just too true...especially since I fear we're all being manipulated into doing things the werewolves want done...

Interesting that you should say that, Lhuna: who were the people pushing for you to come forward? Farael, Kuru and, oh look, Naria are the most prominent ones to spring to mind...

Originally Posted by Naria

I have suspicions about Luna(obvious reasons) and a couple of others that I don't want to go into right now.

Oh, I just don't like this. It pretends to be cautious, maybe, or...or what? Why would you not go into the reasons on your suspicions on someone? Unless you were the Seer maybe, and had information from dreams, but didn't want to reveal your identity - but Naria evidently isn't, that post is taken and not by her. As for 'obvious reasons' about her suspicion on Lhuna - what obvious reasons? She doesn't detail any, she doesn't even make reference to anyone else's posts for arguments - she simply states that there are obvious reasons. Maybe this is an allusion to previous suspicion about Lhuna - there were several people yesterday who were prepared to lynch Nilp in the hopes of finding out about Lhuna (well, we got that certainly!). It looks like a thinly disguised bandwagon to me. I can't remove my suspicions around her, regardless of the heavy hint dropped in the above cited message. I still think that for the Hunter to step forward would be rather foolhardy from their point of view - they'd be an obvious choice for the wolves to take out.

Originally Posted by Farael

I say now it is the time for the Seer to step forward and possibly the hunter.

No. And what was Lhuna saying about manipulation? That's what this looks like: a lupine attempt to join in with the cries for the Seer to reveal their identity, and to see if they could urge the Hunter to join in in the spur of the moment - allowing them to know the identities of two of the most prized villagers as prime targets to take out. Naria then added her little 'hint' - which was just about ambiguous (hmm) so as not to exactly be lying if she wasn't the Hunter, handily allowing her to, maybe, gain some security. Maybe Farael and Naria are in cahoots - this just seems a handy little hint. Along with the suggestion that lynching Nilp would 'clear the air' rather than because he was an actual wolf, (and maybe taking Lhun's arguments of #316 into account)...well, he's suddenly looking somewhat less innocent to me.

So...I have two main suspects at the moment. But who to vote for this evening...