Tol-in-Gaurhoth IV (The Saga, erm, Still Continues...)

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

One vote for Kath, eh? Hmm, I had pointed her out earlier but I'm not sure I'd like to vote for her. Sure, she called my mistake 'slim evidence' but evidence nonetheless. I would have hoped that a sensible villager could see that it was an honest mistake.

It's very hard to describe but I am sure that there's no way of seeing wolf-tracks in that mistake. I was telling a tale from yesteryear (not even a serious one at that, as has now come into the open) and I mixed up my words. I cannot discuss technicalities of language as my knowledge is not great enough. I'm just going to have to trust the judgment of the village. But I will not hide from it. I will not sweep it under the carpet. If you want to seriously debate the slip then please speak.

Thanks for the vote of confidence Celuien.

I see littlemanpoet has backtracked somewhat. Wise, I think.

Nilpaurion Felagund made little of my accusation. He's a jovial fellow and low on my suspicion list.

Lalaith is perhaps a stranger case. She didn't use my name at all despite my harsh accusation against her.

[Evisse the Blue]

I did some more thinking on the phantom's plan. I'm not good with numbers, so I'll stay out of that department.
Now, I think the phantom may have presented this plan in good faith. However
I'm quite astonished at the fact that he actually expected anyone of us to volunteer to be lynched. As far as I know, none of our fellow villagers is suicidal, or a martyr. And everyone of us serves a purpose, for instance, if you kill me, who's gonna bake cookies for you lot?
Let's suppose one of us did volunteer, today and on the following day, and they'd be done away with like sacrificial lambs. What are the rest of us going to do? Just sit back and watch? Inocents and werewolves alike? Come on, the werewolves would probably be doing their nails (claws), watching us do their work for them, and doing or saying nothing to incriminate them. And let's say the Seer does get to dream three nights in a row. What are the chances of him/her dreaming of a werewolf especially if there are no suspicions whatsoever to base their dreams on? And their actually dreaming of a werewolf would be the only benefit we could draw from this situation. If they only dream of inocents, there'll be no way for them to present us with this information and they'll die in vain, without providing even that little support.
Also the Shiriffs and the Hunter especially will have by that third day when the voluntary lynchings will stop, very little to go on, so they won't be able to do much to help the village. And by the third night, when the villager population decreases significantly, the wolves would have increased odds of doing away with those important people, just when they would have begun to make themselves useful.
So this is how I support my initial disagreement of the plan.

I don't dismiss the possibility that the 'plan' was a bluff orchestrated by the phantom and Fea (they certainly seem like the types, these two ) but even if they did that, I think it may have been put forth to study our reactions to it, and not because they're werewolves trying to snare us. As I said before, the plan was doomed from the start because no one in their right mind was going to volunteer.

My suspects at the moment are: Oddwen (her brief statement quite unsettled me), Imp (way too merry at such a sad time - the nerve! , was ready to support phantom's plan but then also supported Fea, and picks obsesively on Eomer without anything to go on but that over discussed Freudian slip). I'd also be inclined to suspect Lalaith because her voting on the basis of who was more/less vocal seems a bit superficial to me, and even more so, randomly picking out of an artificial category....hmm. But I can somehow understand her confusion because there I'm in complete darkness as well.
If I were to cast people into categories, I'd do it on a different criterion, (though I won't guarantee for its objectiveness); that criterion being: are you really saying something, or just making small talk. (Small talk can take up lots of space too, so being very vocal hardly means in my view, being inocent).
It's this blurryness of sides I find unsettling.
I won't hurry to cast a vote yet because I want to hear from Anguirel and Esgalhugwen so I can get a complete picture.

[Celuien]

Okay, just a few more things...

Right now, I'm leaning toward a vote for Oddwen. Granted, she's only made one comment, but there's something a little odd here:

Originally Posted by Oddwen

As to THE phantom's plan - I think it has merit. On one hand killing an innocent will increase the odds in the Villager's favor, yet on the other we're not killing werewolves and they're matching our loss with their own kill.

Would this plan work if it were not done in the first two days? Could we go back to it in the later stages with the same effect?

I'm uneasy about her suggestion of using the plan later - that's exactly the time when using this method is worst for the villagers. Unfortunately, I know that this is as much a shot in the dark as anything else.

Where are Anguirel and Esgallhugwen?

EDIT: Cross posted with Evisse.

[Firefoot]

I think Lalaith has the right idea of voting for someone on that in-between list, as I highly doubt at this point that any of our loud-mouths are werewolves. From there, I think Evisse has the right idea of looking for the people who have talked but not contributed. This would seem like a good way for a werewolf to hide in the middle of everything.

Before I vote I'll have to review the thread more carefully - I'll let y'all know what I think then.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Well, a happy occurence it is to wake up alive. My suspicion of the phantom is lessening, although I do not know why. His logic battles ceaselessly with my own. I'll explain more in about an hour.

Okay... It's been "about an hour" and me not suspecting the phantom is... I dunno. I'm moody. Right now my mood is saying "Well, when I offered up a truce (temporary though it may be), he didn't fight me on it, so that's a point or two in his favor." Mind you, I still hate his sacrifice plan. All probability aside, you're still killing innocent people. That just doesn't sit well with me.

I don't dismiss the possibility that the 'plan' was a bluff orchestrated by the phantom and Fea (they certainly seem like the types, these two ) but even if they did that, I think it may have been put forth to study our reactions to it, and not because they're werewolves trying to snare us

What a brilliant idea. The two of us, planning a very public arguement that goes almost entirely against our usual "I agree, phantom ol' pal" and "Fea's right, as usual" discourses. A pair of werewolves, making it disturbingly obvious that we both want to save lives, we just hate the way each other plan on doing it. Or... not. What people forget is that we PM all the time, and we argue like siblings. You should have seen the stuff about lab dissections... This whole huge debate? There's no bluff, there's no layer subtly hidden beneath, no hidden agendas. I think he's got a flawed, sketchy, morally uncertain plan, and I'm telling him so, and at the same time, trying to keep people from following it.

And I agree with Evisse... we need to hear more from the quiet ones. That's why tp and I stopped arguing for a little while.

[the phantom]

Who to lynch? That is the question.

My suspicion of the phantom is lessening

At this point, the phantom, Fea and Eomer are at the bottom of my suspect list

First, thank you for viewing me as innocent.

Second, if too many people believe I am innocent then the wolves will probably kill me sometime soon, seeing as it is to their advantage to keep mainly suspicious people around.

But that's okay.

Yet his own behaviour has been the opposite of risk-adverse. He has been running the risk - if of course he is himself a non-werewolf - of being identified, rightly or wrongly, by the werewolves as a gifted villager.

Indeed, I have. This is mainly to be a thorn in the wolves' side.

Werewolf One- "Should we kill Phantom? He appears to be a gifted villager."
Werewolf Two- "No, you idiot, he's doing that on purpose to protect the seer, and since many people think he is innocent and perhaps gifted the guardian will probably be guarding him tonight. It might prove disasterous to try to kill him."
Werewolf Three- "But what if he's double bluffing? That'd be just like him. He probably is the seer or guardian hiding right out in the open."
Werewolf Two- "And if he is the guardian like you say he'll probably be guarding himself since he figures the wolves will try to kill him. No- going after him is too risky."
Werewolf One- "Grrr. He is so annoying. I don't care, Werewolf 2, I say we kill him!"

And the fact that I have admitted my intentions just now won't change anything. In fact, it might just add more fuel to the fire in the minds of the wolves.

Well, since no brave soul stepped forward, we will have to pick a lynching suspect. Perhaps we should look at the reaction to my plan.

Part of what I'm going to say is based on the assumption that the wolves are not communicating during the day, since they are NOT supposed to talk to each other during the day. *glares at werewolves* You'd better not be breaking the rules.

When presented with my plan, the most likely wolf reactions would be-
1) Huh? What in the world? How should I respond? Is this a trap? I'm too scared to respond, it might be some sort of trick. I should wait for Werewolf Two to say something and follow his lead.
2) Huh? What in the world? How should I respond? Is this a trap? I'm too scared to respond, it might be some sort of trick. I'm not going to post at all. I'll just pop in at the very end of the day and say something to avoid automatically getting killed by the non-participation rule.
3) Oh joy! This plan would make sure that I don't die today or tomorrow! Woo hoo! I approve.

Keep those reactions in mind and go back and see if you see any of those patterns.

Concerning pattern #1, could Azalia have been following Fea's lead?

Concerning pattern #3, perhaps Kath is indeed a good choice for lynching. But the thing is, innocents would approve to if they recognized the odds.

Pattern #2 is the most intriguing. I am very suspicious of those who have not posted yet- Ang and Esgal. If they pop in between now and the deadline then they fit into pattern three quite nicely.

In addition, the wolves probably figured it was likely that a lynching candidate would emerge from amongst the villagers who were present for most of the debate. Isn't that usually the case with such things? Therefore, perhaps they thought a good strategy would be to allow a candidate to be picked and receive a vote or two, and then pop on to avoid getting killed by the non-participation rule, and of course make some excuse for not being here sooner.

I have some extremely urgent work to do- the Smiths have a sick child I need to attend to- so I will have to cast my vote now.

+ + Esgallhugwen

Maybe Ang and Esgal aren't wolves but they certainly aren't helping our position by staying so silent. If they don't get a post in very soon they will automatically be killed anyway, so perhaps we might as well kill one of them? Then again, a wolf would not allow himself/herself to be killed like that, so watch and see if they show up at the last minute.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Werewolf One- "Should we kill Phantom? He appears to be a gifted villager."
Werewolf Two- "No, you idiot, he's doing that on purpose to protect the seer, and since many people think he is innocent and perhaps gifted the guardian will probably be guarding him tonight. It might prove disasterous to try to kill him."
Werewolf Three- "But what if he's double bluffing? That'd be just like him. He probably is the seer or guardian hiding right out in the open."
Werewolf Two- "And if he is the guardian like you say he'll probably be guarding himself since he figures the wolves will try to kill him. No- going after him is too risky."
Werewolf One- "Grrr. He is so annoying. I don't care, Werewolf 2, I say we kill him!"

Or, there's the other option that's been running in my head the whole time, but that may not be true (remember my last post):

Werewolf One - The Phantom: Hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha. I can't believe how many people are actually attaching themselves to my plan to kill innocent people. And they think it's for their own good to do it! This is perfect. Now if only Fea would shut up, I'd be perfectly poised to convince the whole lot of them to kill themselves without my even pointing fingers.

[Firefoot]

Phantom, I'd say there is a fourth pattern:

4) This would certainly benefit us, but not so much the innocents. {In so far as we are deliberately killing innocents...} I'll pretend to be an innocent and be opposed to the plan.

Perhaps you had this in mind when you said, "Concerning pattern #1, could Azalia have been following Fea's lead?", since this would be what Fea was going for if she were a werewolf, but I thought I'd put it out there.

And anyway, I don't really think Fea is a werewolf.

[Celuien]

I have some, ahem, deliveries to make that will keep me away from the village until after the deadline, so I'm going to have to vote now. I wish I could have waited until everyone made an appearance. And I wish I could have left time for a defense. But I'm going to take a deep breath and vote for

++ODDWEN

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

I don't have really much time right now so I'm not going to beat about the bush. Here's some of my thoughts. I think phantom made his plan for the good of the villagers. However, it's too delicious a situation for the wolves not to take advantage of it because that's what wolves want to do on days: lynch an innocent.

If the wolves aren't too tricky, the easiest way for them to act would be just sit back and enjoy the show. Or then they (or some of them) could try to ally with phantom.

I was more suspicious of Kath and Lalaith than other villagers but Lalaith being the first one to vote for Kath doesn't seem to fit my scheme. Maybe I'm a tad more suspicious of Kath than Lalaith at the moment.

I understand why Celuien finds Oddwen's suggestion weird. I have to admit, though, that I had thought that we could vote using our senses today and then move on to the plan if we have no luck catching a wolf (which is probable). It's gambling on lives but I think it would be really sad to force an innocent to volunteer to be killed on the first day.

I'll be back before the night and by that time I'd like to hear something of Anguirel and Esgallhugwen as well.

EDIT: I must be a really slow writer. Basically other people have now said everything I was going to say but never mind, never mind...

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I've always hated time constraints... Wish the artist luck... I must very shortly submerse myself in the nightmare that is a physics test. A really big one. A three hour long one. But that, so you know, is why I have to post my suspicions now, and with little evidence to back me up, because I didn't realize what time it is, and I haven't got enough to spare to go dig myself up quotes.

EOMER OF THE ROHIRRIM

Although he is outspoken, and very obviously in the thick of things, he's not really *doing* anything. At the first he was on my side, saying that the phantom had a nice plan, but that it won't work. A short time later, he switched sides to say that he thought the phantom's hostility toward me was not a bad thing, and that I am insane for trying to keep innocents alive, regardless of their special qualities. His minor slip in use of possessive pronouns has absolutely nothing to do with this vote, although I found LMP's notice of it really funny. What bothers me more is that Eomer seemed upset that LMP was teasing him over it. Also, Eomer "set a trap" for the werewolves by randomly accusing two people that there was no reason for. At first I thought that Eomer was the Seer, because he mentioned Anguirel twice, and I assumed that he was using Lalaith to somewhat shield such an obviously random accusation. But then he accused Lalaith again, which made me question his motives, so I asked him point blank. He then accused me of taking bait meant for werewolves, and that's just weird. It's like saying that a dolphin cannot possibly get caught in a tuna net. It happens, and it's not the dolphin's fault.

LITTLEMANPOET

Slips in pretty frequently to analyze what we're saying. But he's not much helping out with his own thoughts, except for the brilliant (although wrong) idea that the phantom and myself were in cahoots.

FEANOR OF THE PEREDHIL

Doesn't want to die. Which, of course, is why I won't volunteer myself for tp's scheme, but that's okay, because it looks like Nilpy's up for the dubious honour. I hope people realize that my bickering with tp is an honest fight, with no ulterior motives. Except, of course, to annoy him into saying something more revealing.

THE PHANTOM

I'm beating my head against a brick wall on this one, so I'm just going to give up. My opinion hasn't changed any (except for the fact that I currently think that him living another day won't really hurt anything). If anybody questions me again, I'm just going to post saying "cough previous posts cough". It's pointless for me to keep repeating myself, when I think I've made my point well enough already.

SOMEBODY ELSE

You people don't even make me remotely nervous. Except for one. But I haven't got the time to properly explain myself, and a hasty vote for "somebody else" would be sure to make me look either insane or expendable. Which is why I'm going to try to slip in before voting ends to cast my final vote, since I'm torn between three people right now.

EDIT: because I have to leave right now, and there are only 18 minutes left of daytime hours, I have to vote, reluctant though I am. Somebody else, other suspect... you're getting off lucky on this one. ++EOMER OF THE ROHIRRIM

[Saurreg]

Time is running out. Blood must be spilled to satisfy the want for vengence by shortie and I must go set my traps before it gets too dark in the woods.

In any case good folks, may I remain you all of the common rule of the village that sez dat he who fails to open his mouth during the inquisition will never have to opportunity to use it again... Cuz he'll be dead! Hahahahaha... Erm, sorry bad joke.

Anyway, should both Anguirel and Esgallhugwen continue to be absent for the next two hours, they willl have their life forfeited in the most brutal of ways. We are a sadistic bunch, no?

We have a vote for Oddy and to be fair we have one for Esgal also. So that means following the current tide of public opinion and speaking trend, three will go sleep in the neitherworld tonight. Jah?

At the rate at which things are going I don't think I need even to vote today. If we hang more than three, then I will seriously doubt the structural capacity of the scaffold beam and if we tear more than three to tiny pieces limb from limb, us men would be so tired that we'll sleep through tomorrow!

It is late now and my ability to communicate and understand the English language in its written form is diminished. I shall go set my traps and retire to bed with hopes that a big bada** grizzly is dumb-dumb enough to get caught in it. Bear fur is in high demand you know? And if we do capture a werwolf tonight, leave me the caracass - if it's all furry as I suspect it would be, I'll skin it and sell it to setup a local academy devoted to lycan-studies in memory of shortie. Goodnight.

[Firefoot]

Okay, I've gone through the thread again and here's where I'm at.

Of the people on Lalaith's 'in-the-middle' list, the following all seem to be contributing with useful thoughts and ideas, or at least have an innocent feel to them: Celuien, dancing spawn, Evisse, Hookbill, Nilp Felagund, Lalaith, and myself. I am not particularly suspicious of any of these people.

However, Azaelia, Kath, Oddwen, and Saurreg are all sitting uneasy with me right now. Oddwen's post seems a little strange to me, however, I'm willing to give her the benefit of the doubt that she was just trying to broaden conversation. For Azaelia, Kath, and Saurreg, it is more that 'something isn't right,' and while I don't particularly care to vote for any of them, there really is not a lot of evidence one way or the other. So I guess my vote is for ++SAURREG. Sorry, old chap, if I'm wrong, but at the moment all choices seem fraught with error.

Edit: So right now the vote is tied with 1 vote each to Kath, Oddwen, Esga, Eomer, and Saurreg.

[the guy who be short]

There seems to be a little confusion. I'll remind villagers that voting ends at 4pm today, that is... about 5 minutes.

Also, absent villagers do not get killed on Day 1 because they have no chance to post that they'll be absent.

You should all really read my posts more carefully.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Fea votes for me?

Well, I didn't agree with you about phantom's plan. I was wary of the plan regardless of you.

As for being suspicious of you (by saying 'String her up!) that was in regard to the comment you made about the Seer being unimportant. That was a crazy thing to say.

Littlemanpoet's teasing? I laughed about it too at first; it was the repetition which made me uneasy and suspicious of him.

As for accusing her of taking the bait, I understand: it was an easy thing to do. I'm not angry with you for that.

I didn't accuse Lalaith twice, did I? It was only a ploy anyway.

Oh, Fea also points out that I'm 'not really doing anything'. Sorry, but did you miss everything I said? I was trying to draw out werewolves by tempting them with fallacious reasoning.

Miss Fea, I am suspicious of you, however I shall hold my vote for a couple of minutes. You are not the only suspect.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I feel very uneasy about this but I want to save myself. (I'm selfish, deal with it.)

I will vote for ++ KATH

I mentioned her as a suspect earlier. Even if she is only a slight suspect, I must choose her as things stand (because lots of people seem to have forgotten the time)

Why do I think the werewolves are laughing.....

[the guy who be short]

As the village plunged into confusion, votes were cast everywhere. The villagers were completely baffled and seemed to be voting more or less at random.
And so it was that, with only two votes, Kath “won” the vote.
A gaggle of villagers gathered around Kath in the village square. Pitchforks glinted and danced in the light of spluttering torches as the rabble surrounded her, though the majority of the villagers merely looked on, unconvinced of her guilt.
“Please! Please listen!” Kath pleaded. “I’m innocent, I tell ye. I’m a simple – er… well, I don’t really have a profession, but I’m innocent, I tell ye!”
But the villagers would have none of it. Kath’s screams were quickly silenced as she disappeared under a hoard of angry villagers wielding traditional peasant-weaponry. “Die! Die wolf!” they chanted, laying upon her.
A few moments and many kicks, prods and pokes later, the villagers stepped back, expectantly waiting for the now severely beaten carcass of Kath to transform into a werewolf.
It didn’t.
“Alas! We have slain an innocent!” they wailed.
But worse was yet to come. The villagers rushed to inspect Kath’s home, and were surprised to find a cloak, a sword, a bow, quiver and arrows stashed away. For Kath was in fact the Ranger of the village, their sole protection from death in the night.
The villagers stood in shocked silence as they tried to absorb the harsh fact that they had slain their Ranger.

Living:

Anguirel
Azaelia of Willowbottom
Celuien
dancing spawn of ungoliant
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Esgallhugwen
Evisse the Blue
Feanor of the Peredhil
Firefoot
Hookbill the Goomba
Lalaith
littlemanpoet
Nilpaurion Felagund
Oddwen
Saurreg
the phantom

Dead:

the guy who be short (Villager) - partially consumer by werewolves on NIGHT 1.
Kath (Ranger) - lynched by villagers on DAY 1.

Score:

Werewolves: 3
Villagers: 13


Some things to sort out:
I think there might have been a little confusion about voting, as people are used to voting at 6pm. Please read the Mod posts very carefully, as they do say when the DAY / NIGHT phases start and begin.
I'm sorry I was unable to post this earlier, but both Esgallhugwen and Anguirel did PM me about being busy on this first DAY. I was unable to post it earlier due to illness, exams, etc. Anyway, they won't be dying toDAY. Also, I was sure I posted that absent villagers would not be lynched on DAY 1 as they wouldn't have the chance to tell fellow villagers that they wouldn't be there, but apparently it wasn't there when I checked the rules. Sorry about this, I'm editting it in (not that it matters now). Absentees will be lynched starting from the morrow.

For now, it is NIGHT. NIGHT ends at 4:30pm GMT, which I believe is 11:30 EST and 10:30 Central Time, or earlier if all NIGHT-time activities are received by me before then.

[littlemanpoet]

Sorry, I knew this was going to happen, but RL sleep and business at the shop kept me from voting until it was too late. I hope that the time spread works out better next time.

[Hookbill the Goomba]

Blast, I waited too long to cast my vote. Not that I would have made a difference... Poor old Kath, we've lost the ranger... Must try harder next time.

[the guy who be short]

It is NIGHT-time, y'know. You lot are meant to be peacefully in bed, ie quiet.

[the guy who be short]

After another sleepless and uneasy night, the villagefolk gathered in the village square, unsure of coming events. Had the fearsome Gaurhoth slain another innocent in the small hours?

At first, nothing seemed untoward. The villagers were all there, all fifteen – fifteen of them? Where was Azaelia of Willowbottom?!

Fearing the worst, the villagers sped to the seamstress’ home. They pushed open the door (oh! If only the village had a locksmith!) to find… nothing. Well, almost nothing. Looking closer, they noticed a small puddle of blood in the middle of the floor, though puzzlingly there was no body. Perhaps this was a ray of hope…

“Eru save us! Look!” one of the villagers cried, pointing at the door they had entered through. There, impaled to the wood through her hands and feet by her own knitting-needles, was nailed the body of Azaelia of Willowbottom. But worse still were the hundreds of small pins and needles that had been driven into her flesh, covering her small and innocent frame. Blood had poured down from her many piercings, staining her garments red, so that only a few small trickles managed to crisscross the door and dribble to the floor.

"Alas for Azaelia of Willowbottom! Her blood shall be avenged this day!"

Living:

Anguirel
Celuien
dancing spawn of ungoliant
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Esgallhugwen
Evisse the Blue
Feanor of the Peredhil
Firefoot
Hookbill the Goomba
Lalaith
littlemanpoet
Nilpaurion Felagund
Oddwen
Saurreg
the phantom

Dead:

the guy who be short (Villager) - partially consumer by werewolves on NIGHT 1.
Kath (Ranger) - lynched by villagers on DAY 1.
Azaelia of Willowbottom (Villager) - turned into a pincushion on NIGHT 2.

Score:

Werewolves: 3
Villagers: 12

It is now DAY. DAY will end at 5pm GMT tomorrow, which I believe is 12:00 noon EST and 11:00am Central.

[littlemanpoet]

Alack and alas for our poor Azaelia!
How could the fiends so meanly impale ya?
For this dastardly deed they must be made to pay,
with their lives and 'twould be best if we lynch one today!
If this be the way the beasts used her last night,
how would they use on me my butchering knives?
At least there's no sign that she was the Seer.
Might that one most subtly convey whom to fear?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Poor Azaelia. What a way to go...

I think it is only right and proper that I apologise humbly and sincerely to every villager and especially Kath (wherever she may be) for the integral part I played in the lynching yesterday. I accept great responsibility and feel dreadful about what happened.

However, I will not be made a scapegoat. Why were only 6 votes cast? What went wrong?

I do not want sympathy, to ask for such would be in horrible taste. However, I hope you can all appreciate the uncomfortable position I was put in. I could have:

1) voted for no-one, killing 5 villagers in one go.

2) voted for a different villager, killing 6 villagers in one go.

or 3) chose one of the other 4 villagers with one vote each, killing one villager.

Needless to say, I wanted to stay alive myself so I chose option 3, and it turned out very badly. I didn't really have a lot to go on.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Wow. That's not good about Kath... I can already hear the phantom saying "See guys? If you'd listened to me, this wouldn't have happened."

And wow, wolves... that was a really gory death. I hate needles. But look at the cool design the blood made on the floor...

[Lalaith]

This is just dreadful. The loss of good Azaelia, of course, but also of our gallant Ranger, through my suggestion. When I returned to the village last night, I little suspected I would find that my more or less random vote would have such dark and dire consequences. I honestly expected that my suggestion would be lost in the melee of voting, after all, there were 17 of us.
Brave Kath, wherever your spirit roams, my humble apologies. I am quite mortified, and if the village now turns on me, I won't be in the least surprised.

But please, fellow villagers, wherever your vote goes, let your voices be heard in future. Remember, "for evil to triumph it only needs the good to do nothing."

[the phantom]

I seem to remember someone putting forth a plan to avoid killing a gifted villager yesterday, but the other villagers just didn't like it and thought it would be for the best to just randomly pick someone.

Well, congratulations everyone- we lynched our ranger yesterday.

*bitterly mumbles something that sounds like "I told you so"*

What I am wondering is- why Azalia?

With the ranger gone, the wolves had a free opportunity to go after the seer, and Azalia was definitely not the seer. She posted yesterday but did not even hint at anyone's guilt or innocence as a seer would have done.

Either there was a better reason to kill Azalia than going after the seer, or the werewolves aren't really using much of a strategy.

Why were only 6 votes cast? What went wrong?

Perhaps no one wanted to be blamed for the death of an innocent?

With only six votes, it is entirely possible that not a single wolf cast a vote.

Or perhaps all three voted.

Who knows?

Is there anything we can learn from the voting?

Perhaps.

If Eomer is a wolf, then it is very likely that either Esgal, Oddwen, or Saurreg is also a wolf (I suspect Esgal the most of these three, mainly because I haven't heard from her). You see, Eomer popped in at the end to break a five-way tie. Even though his name was one of the names on the list, a smart wolf would have voted for a sixth person and taken five innocents with them to the grave. Five innocents is too juicy a prize to pass up. The only way a wolf would break a five-way tie is if there was another wolf besides himself on the list, because killing four innocents is not worth the price of two out of three wolves.

Now, I am not suggesting that Eomer is a wolf, because an innocent would've done exactly what he did, too. I am just saying this for future reference in case he gets lynched or is killed by the hunter and found out to be a wolf.

Also, if Fea is a wolf then it is probable that neither Esgal nor Oddwen are wolves since those two had votes before Fea voted. A wolf most likely would have tacked on their vote to an innocent (such as Kath) in order to ensure the survival of their friend.

The only case in which that wouldn't be true is if Fea had no fear that Esgal or Oddwen would receive any more votes (or enough to get lynched, anyway).

The same thing can be said of Firefoot. If she is a wolf then it is likely that the people who received votes before her (Esgal, Oddwen, and Fea) are not wolves.

Of course none of this is absolute. I am just attempting to provide some possible theories to work with.

Now, let's hear from everyone. What do some of our active participants from yesterday have to say? Celuien, Eomer, Firefoot, lmp- what are your thoughts?

[Hookbill the Goomba]

Truth ye hath spoken, Lalaith.

Alas, poor Azaelia. But really, Wear wolves, the pins and needles, weren’t that a little too far? What happened to good old-fashioned eating by w-ws? Obviously, Middle Earth wear-wolves are different. :|

But look at the cool design the blood made on the floor...

That's a little in bad taste, isn't it Feanor? Show a little respect.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Seeing as how I have an other-world engagement of quite a lot of importance tomorrow night, I will not be around much, if at all, tomorrow. Also, my other-world party to celebrate tomorrow night's event of some importance is on Sunday, so I won't be around all afternoon that day, and there is quite the chance that I will be dead to the world for a long time Monday morning. That's not to say I won't try my best to be here and finger-pointing, but, just so you know, if I disappear for awhile, that incident of some importance to life and future happiness and success is at fault.

And now, I feel that I must continue to blame Eomer, because when I went to bed last night, he was still the one I was most suspicious of, followed closely by LMP, who was tailed by the phantom. And right up there mixed in with the group is that crazy Someone Else that I haven't bothered to name yet.

Even though there have been two deaths, I can't change my mind over a lynching set by two votes (I pity you on that one, Eomer), and a seemingly random night-time slaying. Until somebody else says or does something to take my attention from the Scotsman, he's where my eye rests.

EDIT: about that comment that was in bad taste... I'm an artist. I notice these things. I once freaked out a nurse who was prepping me to donate blood when I said with a grimace and a cringe that "Well, at least it's a really cool color." Sorry if my randomness upsets anyone.

[Hookbill the Goomba]

Don't worry, Fea, you are forgiven... though my eye of suspicion is on you. A little whack should get it off, its nothing to worry about . You are causing me a little suspicion. But not enough to convict you to a vote just yet. So, no worries.

[the phantom]

I have a bit of work to do, now. Though we are in great peril, we must not wholly abandon our jobs. Well- I certainly can't, anyway. If the healer doesn't heal then we'd have even more deaths on our hands.

I will return in three hours or so.

Don't be too hasty while I am away. Let us hear from everyone today.

[Firefoot]

I suppose I don't really have a lot of thoughts right now. Concisive thoughts, that is. For one thing, I would have thought that more people would have voted yesterday. I was not looking for a five-way tie; rather, I was unconvinced enough of the others' guilt that I chose not to vote for someone already voted for.

I don't know. I don't see as a lot of information can be drawn, either; the whole deal was very random and not enough people voted for any real conclusions to be drawn.

Here are the results from the voting, just for clarity so we don't have to dig back through the thread (proven innocents underlined):

Kath - 2 (Lalaith, Eomer)
Esga - 1 (phantom)
Oddwen - 1 (*Celuien*)
Eomer - 1 (Fea)
*Saurreg* - 1 (Firefoot)

Did not vote:

Anguirel - RL activities kept him away all day
Azaelia
dancing spawn - was confused about voting deadline
Esga - RL activities kept her away all day
Evisse - confused about voting deadline
Hookbill - missed voting due to power cut
Kath
littlemanpoet - missed voting
Nilpaurion
Oddwen
*Saurreg* - left in the middle of voting without voting

What I think we need to do is somehow structure the voting so that the wolves can't pull it whichever way they want. Yesterday it would have been extremely easy for the wolves to take out one or more innocents without us being the wiser. For one thing, more people ought to vote. I'm not blaming those of you who didn't; I'm just saying that in the future it would be best if everyone tried to. More information can be gained and there would be less chance for the wolves to manipulate the voting.

[Celuien]

Poor Kath. She will be missed. And how could the wolves do that to Azaelia? Terrible.

I think that the most important thing is to figure out why the wolves picked Azaelia last night. I had my thoughts on who the various gifted villagers might have been and Azaelia wasn't on the list. Of course, neither was Kath, although she turned out to be our Ranger. So unless the wolves picked up on something that I missed, I don't think they were looking for the Seer or Shirriffs.

Although Firefoot voted for Saurreg yesterday, Azaelia and Kath were both on her suspect list, and both proven innocent. It could be that either Oddwen or Saurreg (or both) is a werewolf and that Azaelia was chosen to discredit that list. They could also be attempting to cast suspicion on Firefoot by showing that two of her four suspects were innocents. Of course, accusing an innocent on the first day doesn't mean much. I'm just trying to find some logic in Azaelia's death. I don't think she accused anyone yesterday, but I will check again to be sure.

I'll have to review the thread some more to see if I can come up with anything else...

Quick RL notice: I have a 5 to 6 hour drive ahead on me on Saturday, to be followed by unpacking and trying to set up Internet access in the dorm where I'll be staying temporarily. I won't be able to check in much until Sunday, but will do my best to make an appearance before the deadline.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Firefoot has a point. Think of what a blow it would have been yesterday if Eomer hadn't gotten in just before voting ended.

And just for the joke of it, let's all kill tp while he's gone. I'm sure he'd appreciate it.

[Lalaith]

The only case in which that wouldn't be true is if Fea had no fear that Esgal or Oddwen would receive any more votes (or enough to get lynched, anyway).

My trouble is, how could *anyone* know whether or not more people would vote after them? Except Eomer, who posted with just 2 minutes to go.
And why did Saurreg, knowing that three villagers stood to die, therefore think it was ok for him not to vote? And did he not think that perhaps he would join them (as indeed he almost did, were it not for Eomer's last minute vote...)

[Lalaith]

Suggestion to Firefoot - could you edit your excellent list with a list of those who didn't vote, and why (eg the two who had notified of their absence etc) I think that could be significant, too...

[Hookbill the Goomba]

There was a power cut in my area before I was able to vote and by the time it was over, I had forgotten. It was not my fault, so don't castrate me! Perhaps some people did not vote as it is the first night and it was very unlikely that we'd catch a W-w so early on. I don't know, I'm only guessing.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

A little confusion happened to me yesterday concerning the deadline. I was typing my post in the belief that I had yet an hour till I have to cast my vote. I sent it but obviously night time had come and I ended up deleting the post.
Unfortunately I have to admit that I would have voted for Kath because somehow I felt she was suspicious. I see that I was terribly wrong and almost built phantom a "told you so" placard.

Another thing I would have liked to say yesterday is that I wonder, what made Saurreg say this: "I don't think I need even to vote today." When does he need to vote, then? I don't want to attack anyone (yet) especially because I feel bad because of my stupid time zone blunder. I'm just thinking aloud. And I'll think aloud more a bit later.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Fea, you seem to suspect littlemanpoet, phantom and myself simply because we have held correspondence with you, and thus natural suspicion had the chance to arise. The loudmouth effect. Also, I note you didn't take the time to react to my riposte, which I gave right before Kath's death. All you did was reinforce your suspicion of me. I'm not sure this is completely fair. If my points do not satisfy you then please explain how and why.

I wouldn't look too far for a reason in Azaelia's death. No loudmouth would be killed; Esgal or Ang wouldn't be killed (for reasons all gamers must surely realise ) and there was not a whole lot of distinction between the others. Azaelia did annoy the phantom with one of her posts, maybe it was to cast suspicion on the phantom?

I am much more interested in why the wolves didn't go after the phantom. Maybe they just haven't picked up on the central aspect of his plan. Think about it. Either the wolves are not smart at all, or the phantom is one of them.

Saurreg's behaviour at the end of the last day was odd. I'm not sure why he would willingly put to death a whole bunch of people. Surely he could have nominated one villager out of the list, to avoid large-scale and mostly unintelligible bloodshed.

Anyway, I think we all realise that voting is important today. Let's see some participation, people!

[Firefoot]

Lalaith (and everyone) - list has been edited accordingly. I listed the reasons of those who gave them and added a few notable comments (eg about Saurreg leaving in the middle of voting).

It is completely understandable for people to accidentally miss a vote for whatever reason. However, if you know (or find it likely) that you will miss a vote, vote earlier. There is nothing wrong with this. Though no one wants to be the first vote, voting before everyone else is better than not voting at all, especially at this point in the game.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Well, Eomer, if you want me to address your comments, here I go.

As for being suspicious of you (by saying 'String her up!) that was in regard to the comment you made about the Seer being unimportant. That was a crazy thing to say.

I wasn't saying that the Seer isn't important. I was, and still am, saying that we don't need the Seer to win. What's important is innocent villagers that have some talent at picking out guilty faces, gift or not.

Fea, you seem to suspect littlemanpoet, phantom and myself simply because we have held correspondence with you, and thus natural suspicion had the chance to arise. The loudmouth effect.

You got it. Nobody else was making as much noise as us, so I felt obligated to pick my suspects from people who actually gave me some reason to feel that way.

If my points do not satisfy you then please explain how and why.

Whether I am satisfied or not, it is always good to have a public suspect. People get sloppy if they think your mind is set.