Why didn't Saruman go to the Shire to take the Ring?

[Gordis]

Let us look at Saruman's actions and motives in summer 3018 closer.
What has really happened between the three Istari (Saruman, Radagast and Gandalf)?

Gandalf had been fond of hobbits ever since the Long winter (2758-60), long before Bilbo has found the Ring. He didn't hide his interest from Saruman and

Seeing then that Gandalf thought the Shire worth visiting, Saruman himself visited it, but disguised and in the utmost secrecy, until he had explored and noted all its ways and lands, and thought then he had learned all that there was to know of it. And even when it seemed to him no longer wise nor profitable to go thither, he still had spies and servants that went in or kept an eye upon its borders. For he was still suspicious. He was himself so far fallen that he believed all others of the Council had each their deep and far-reaching policies for their own enhancement, to which all that they did must in some way refer. "Concerning Gandalf, Saruman and the Shire" UT

So, in summer 3018 the One Ring is hidden in the Shire. Saruman doesn't know it is there, but is very much aware of Gandalf's interest in this land.

Then Saruman suddenly learns that the nazgul - all nine - have crossed the Anduin and are searching for "the Shire". How did he learn it? Most likely from Radagast - because how otherwise the Brown Wizard, who always stayed as far as possible from politics, got involved in this story? Radagast must have learned from his birds and beasts that his neighbours, the two nazgul of Dol Guldur, set forth, crossed the river, met the other seven and rode north together, asking questions. Radagast did what was his duty: he immediately went to inform Saruman - the head of his order.

Here Saruman most likely put all the loose ends together: Gandalf is interested in the Shire and goes there a lot, the nazgul try to find the Shire, and there is hardly any other errand than the search for the One Ring that would make Sauron send all the Nine to wander across western lands. The last bit can be proven by Saruman's words to the Morgul-Lord:

"It is not a land that you look for," he said. "I know what you seek, though you do not name it."- UT

So, finally, before midsummer 3018, Saruman understands that the One is in the Shire, maybe in Gandalf's direct keeping, maybe in the keeping of one of the hobbits under Gandalf's supervision.

Saruman's next move is to invite Gandalf to Orthanc, using the unsuspecting Radagast. Why? Most likely Saruman hopes that Gandalf will come bringing the Ring with him. That's why he orders Radagast to tell Gandalf the news about the nazgul. Would the Grey wizard leave the Ring unprotected?

But that was not what happened. Gandalf came alone without the Ring. And here Saruman's actions do not make much sense, IMO. He took Gandalf out of the picture, imprisoning him in Orthanc. But he did nothing about the Ring. Why didn't he ride like the wind to the Shire himself, to get there before the nazgul?

And if I knew where this thing was hid, I should not be here, but long gone before you to take it.

- says Saruman to the nazgul in UT. But he lied. He DID know! Well, maybe he didn't know the name of "Baggins" (likely the nazgul only asked about "the Shire" at first, and started asking about "Baggins" only beyond Sarn Ford), but still, he could have found Bag End easily - as it was the place that his colleague Gandalf was known to visit. A couple of questions, a small amount of charm and persuasion and he would be led to Frodo.
The rangers at the border would have let him pass - wasn't he the head of the White Council? Frodo would have had no suspicions of him - didn't Gandalf speak highly of Saruman? He could have taken the Ring there and then, or carried Frodo to Orthanc - if he had daring enough.

But it seems Saruman hadn't got enough guts for it. He did the silliest thing - removed Gandalf and left the Ring completely unprotected for the nazgul to take. Or, considering that Gandalf had means to transmit the news of danger to the Ringbearer, prior to going to Orthanc, he left the Ringbearer enough time to make his way to Rivendell, where the Ring would be beyond Saruman's grasp.

What was it? Miscalculation? Cowardice?
What do you think?

[Ibrîniðilpathânezel]

Possibly Sauron's influence, which might have been greater than even Saruman himself knew. By the time Pippin picked up the palantir, we know it had been some time since Saruman had made a report to Sauron. I suspect this is because after he told Sauron he had Gandalf imprisoned, his own mind was in turmoil, his desire to have the Ring for himself warring with his "loyalty" (more likely fear) of Sauron. Moreover, it was to Sauron's benefit to encourage Saruman to stay put; in Orthanc, he could use the palantir to keep tabs on him and worm his way into his thoughts, exerting control from afar, also providing Sauron with an allied stronghold behind enemy lines, so to speak. Keeping Saruman there and under his influence gave Sauron an advantage he would not have had, if Saruman had never looked into the palantir and been drawn into Sauron's web. He would have been a rival, but one free from any ties to Mordor, which ultimately could have made the situation for the West even worse.

That aside, I think there was a hefty dose of fear involved as well. At the same time that Saruman spoke with the Nazgul at Isengard, it is said that from that meeting, he perceived the full horror of service to Mordor, which nearly made him switch his allegiance back to Gandalf and the West. Once he lost his valuable prisoner (and became angry because of it), he was definitely in a pinch. If he remains in Orthanc and reports in to Sauron, he will certainly face the Dark Lord's wrath for allowing Gandalf to escape (which he likely could not have concealed from him, which would explain why he had not reported for so long). Staying there and keeping silent, he at least retained some semblance of power. But if he leaves -- particularly after he knows the Nine are abroad and searching for the same thing he wants -- he is in danger from both sides, the old and new allies he has betrayed. If he had known exactly where the Ring was and who had it, he might have taken the risk of riding after it, hoping to get it first so that by the time the Nazgul caught up with him, he would be the new Ring Lord -- but that was pretty chancy, since he didn't know more than "in the Shire."

Did that make any sense? Maybe not. Head's still ringing from last night's concert. And a Merry Christmas Eve!

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Gordis

So, finally, before midsummer 3018, Saruman understands that the One is in the Shire, maybe in Gandalf's direct keeping, maybe in the keeping of one of the hobbits under Gandalf's supervision.

Saruman can't have believed Gandalf possessed the Ring himself. Saruman's considerable knowledge of the Rings of Power would have made it clear to him that if Gandalf or any of the Wise had the One they would not have been able to resist the temptation to use it.
Saruman obviously suspected the Shire had some special importance to Gandalf, but there is evidence that suspicion was all he had. Consider the conversation between Gandalf and Saruman and Orthanc.

I have many eyes in my service, and I believe you know where this precious thing now lies. Is it not so? Or why do the Nine ask for the Shire, and what is your business there?

FOTR p291
Saruman did not know the One was in the Shire, or surely he would have gone there to get it, just as he told the Nazgûl.

Originally Posted by Gordis

Saruman's next move is to invite Gandalf to Orthanc, using the unsuspecting Radagast. Why? Most likely Saruman hopes that Gandalf will come bringing the Ring with him. That's why he orders Radagast to tell Gandalf the news about the nazgul. Would the Grey wizard leave the Ring unprotected?

As evidenced by the previous quote, Saruman's purpose in luring Gandalf to Isengard was to attempt to persuade him to tell the Ring's location, if he knew it.
The first evidence that Saruman had definite knowledge of the One's whereabouts isn't seen until the attack on the Fellowship at Parth Galen. He had to have been aware of their departure from Rivendell with a number of hobbits, and that was likely the deciding factor that gave him surety.

[Gordis]

Thank you for the answers, Ibrin and Inziladun.

I have many eyes in my service, and I believe you know where this precious thing now lies. Is it not so? Or why do the Nine ask for the Shire, and what is your business there?

Strange - I think that this quote proves just the opposite - that Saruman finally guessed (rightly) that the Ring was in the Shire and Gandalf knew about it all along. In UT we learn that Saruman even thought back to a far-away council when they had had a disagreement over smoking and concluded that Gandalf was duping him all along:

Gandalf did not laugh again; and he did not answer, but looking keenly at Saruman he drew on his pipe and sent out a great ring of smoke with many smaller rings that followed it. Then he put up his hand, as if to grasp them, and they vanished. With that he got up and left Saruman without another word; but Saruman stood for some time silent, and his face was dark with doubt and displeasure.
This story appears in half a dozen different manuscripts, and in one of them it is said that Saruman was suspicious, doubting whether he read rightly the purport of Gandalf's gesture with the rings of smoke (above all whether it showed any connexion between the Halflings and the great matter of the Rings of Power, unlikely though that might seem); and doubting that one so great could concern himself with such a people as the Halflings for their own sake merely. -"The Hunt for the Ring."

Of course, he had no exact address where to seek for the Ring - but the nazgul did well without the exact address either. After all, Saruman had spies and "business associates" in the Shire, he had been there himself. He could ask questions and hope to be answered far more readily than any nazgul.

In fact, he could go to the Shire either impersonating Gandalf (Saruman in TT was able to appear quite similar to Gandalf), or as Saruman the White, Gandalf's boss who replaced him in the hour of need: "I am sorry for bearing bad news, Frodo, but our dear friend Gandalf got eaten by wargs / captured by Sauron / drowned in the Anduin. I come in his stead, o worthy hobbit, to help you with your burden. The Nine are hunting for you. Trust me - I will take you to safety." Even Aragorn might have bought this story, let alone Frodo!


Imprisoning Gandalf was a smart move. But it had to have a follow-up: Saruman had to go to the Shire himself. I think he didn't do it partly because of the reasons given by Ibrin, partly because he wasn't sure of the address, but mostly because he didn't have enough guts for a wannabe Dark Lord.

Sauron, for instance, knew how to risk his life when the prize was big enough: he stayed long among the Noldor of Eregion, his old enemies, he went to Numenor as a prisoner. Saruman, in contrast, was essentially a coward.

[Alfirin]

I think that the main reason Saruman did not immeditely go running to the shire was in its own way becuse he had made a great error in dealing with the WK, not so much in what he had kept hidden, but in what he hadn't. He had lied to the WK and he had no way of knowing how long it would be before the lie was exposed. More importantly he had (possibly inadvertently) said so fairly damming things to the WK, namely 1. that he knew what the WK was after and more importantly that, given the opportuntity, he would no hestitie to claim this item for himself. Given the fact that the WK is basically Sauron's right hand man, (in the absence of a new ringlord) and anything said to him is more or less guarneteed to wind up being reported to Sauron, this is a very foolish thing to say. The moment the message is recived by Sauron, Saruman will be kept under immediate and total survallaince, if he is allowed to remain free at all. With Gandalf gone Saruman is in even hotter water. I think that he assumes the following-

The moment the WK left he would have had suspisions as to Saruman's loyalty, the WK would then have posted some sort of spies, even possibly allowing one or two of the lesser riders to peel off and keep an eye on Saruman in secret. The moment Saruman made a move, the message would have gotten to the WK, at which point ALL the Nazgul would be hot on Saruman's trail, assuming that where he went the ring was. Saruman's only hope (and likely plan) was to wait until such time as the ring wraiths were, in thier searches all sufficiently far away from both him and the shire (given how small the shire was, it would be likey that without a good lead, the WK would miss it) that he could safely get to the shire before the Nazgul could catch up.

Once there he would indeed have had little trouble finding Frodo or convincing him, The most likey story would have been as follows. Saruman arrives at Bag End (or if a little later meets the party on the road) and tells Frodo that due to pressing matters Gandalf is going to be delayed (as he said he might be) but that the matter the Ring was so important to Gandalf that he came and begged Saruman, who as head of the order of wizards was the greatest of the all, to come in the interim, to protect Frodo in his stead, and that He realizaing the great need, had consented. Alternitvely, he could have simply disgused himself as Gandalf, as It is doubtful that anyone he met would be able to see through the disguise.

[Gordis]

Originally Posted by Alfirin

I think that the main reason Saruman did not immeditely go running to the shire was in its own way becuse he had made a great error in dealing with the WK, not so much in what he had kept hidden, but in what he hadn't. He had lied to the WK and he had no way of knowing how long it would be before the lie was exposed. More importantly he had (possibly inadvertently) said so fairly damming things to the WK, namely 1. that he knew what the WK was after and more importantly that, given the opportuntity, he would no hestitie to claim this item for himself. Given the fact that the WK is basically Sauron's right hand man, (in the absence of a new ringlord) and anything said to him is more or less guarneteed to wind up being reported to Sauron, this is a very foolish thing to say. The moment the message is recived by Sauron, Saruman will be kept under immediate and total survallaince, if he is allowed to remain free at all. With Gandalf gone Saruman is in even hotter water. I think that he assumes the following-

The moment the WK left he would have had suspisions as to Saruman's loyalty, the WK would then have posted some sort of spies, even possibly allowing one or two of the lesser riders to peel off and keep an eye on Saruman in secret. The moment Saruman made a move, the message would have gotten to the WK, at which point ALL the Nazgul would be hot on Saruman's trail, assuming that where he went the ring was. Saruman's only hope (and likely plan) was to wait until such time as the ring wraiths were, in thier searches all sufficiently far away from both him and the shire (given how small the shire was, it would be likey that without a good lead, the WK would miss it) that he could safely get to the shire before the Nazgul could catch up.

Saruman was not too smart in his talk with the WK, that's for sure. Excellent analysis of the situation, Alfirin. Only it is the September 3018 situation, not the earlier, summer situation I was speaking about.

Saruman had talked with the WK in the early hours on September 18, at the same time when Gandalf escaped from Orthanc. After that, indeed, it would have been foolish to go to the Shire - too late.

Before that Saruman had two months free - at this time Gandalf was biting his nails atop Saruman's Tower, and the nazgul were off on the sightseeing trip up the Vales of Anduin, likely all the way to Gundabad, because Sauron had mistakenly sent them there. The road to the Shire was free. Saruman could go there and return with the Ring in two weeks.

Originally Posted by Alfirin

Once there he would indeed have had little trouble finding Frodo or convincing him, The most likey story would have been as follows. Saruman arrives at Bag End (or if a little later meets the party on the road) and tells Frodo that due to pressing matters Gandalf is going to be delayed (as he said he might be) but that the matter the Ring was so important to Gandalf that he came and begged Saruman, who as head of the order of wizards was the greatest of the all, to come in the interim, to protect Frodo in his stead, and that He realizaing the great need, had consented. Alternitvely, he could have simply disgused himself as Gandalf, as It is doubtful that anyone he met would be able to see through the disguise.

Ahh - we have cross-posted. Great minds think alike

[HerenIstarion]

Most likely Saruman hopes that Gandalf will come bringing the Ring with him

Seems to me you've answered your own question well enough putting forth quote as above

Another reason may have been psychology - Saruman has grown used to being the Lord of Orthank with all the benefits and comforts it brought along, being even afraid to an extent of venturing abroad alone (as opposed to Gandalf who's wandering about on his own most of the time). (cf. his heavy stress on 'destruction of his home' encountering the returning Lords of the West in Hollin and also remark made in conversation in Flotsam and Jetsam I believe about faded wizardry of Saruman's who has to rely on 'wheels and chains and slaves' now)

It seems the mark of all beings going evil that they exhibit less courage the more evil they become (cf. Morgoth and his self-imposed confinement towards the end) and less will/capacity to independent action - you can tell the one has started going rotten as soon as they start to lean towards Denethor's wisdom (good captain sitting back sending forth his inferiors)

[Boromir88]

Alfirin's analysis is a thing of beauty, and I will rep you for that post, when I can.

I guess to answer why Saruman hadn't acted before the WK arrived - now keep in mind this is my own rambling speculations - I have nothing as far as "proof."

I think we should keep in mind that dangerous game Saruman was playing. He was not only deceiving Gandalf, and the rest of the Wise, into trusting him, but he was also trying to deceive Sauron. Saruman wanted to be the Ring Lord himself, he had to not only appeal to Sauron, but keep the trust of the "Wise." And when Elrond, hears of Saruman's betrayal, he is completely shocked (as was Gandalf).

As Gandalf says in The Council of Elrond, even the greatest spiders leave a "weak thread," and Sarumans lies begin to unravel. When he's caught, he's got himself stuck in a vice; Gandalf comes after him to expel him from the Order and the Council, Sauron is after the presumed Hobbit that he captured.

So, for Saruman, he was playing such a dangerous game, he had to keep up the act as long as possible. As Grishnakh says Sauron knows Saruman is "treacherous" and "the Eye is on him." (The Uruk-hai). My guess is Sauron had his eye on Saruman from the very beginning. Saruman might have thought he was keeping his true intent hidden, and Sauron might not have figured it out until later, but he definitely had Saruman under surveillance from the get go.

Remember, that it was Saruman who is credited for driving Sauron out of Dol Guldur, and it is Saruman who did it to prevent Sauron from searching The Gladden Fields. This wasn't a loyal, trusting friendship, and I very highly doubt Sauron and Saruman went to counseling together to work our their past.

Long story short, Saruman wanted to keep the Ring away from Sauron, just as much as he wanted it for himself. Had he gone racing off for the Ring when he first got news of where it probably was, this would have certainly tipped Sauron off sooner. On where the Ring was, and also Saruman's own treachery. Not only that, but the good guys would have learned about Saruman's betrayal a lot sooner than they did, when Gandalf spilled the beans (what a tattle tale! ). In a way, Saruman handcuffed himself, by the way he decided to play the game.