Who was the old man?

[The Might]

Suddenly Gimli looked up, and there just on the edge of the fire-light stood an old bent man, leaning on a staff, and wrapped in a great cloak; his wide-brimmed hat was pulled down over his eyes. Gimli sprang up, too amazed for the moment to cry out, though at once the thought flashed into his mind that Saruman had caught them. Both Aragorn and Legolas, roused by his sudden movement, sat up and stared. The old man did not speak or make, sign.
'Well, father, what can we do for you?' said Aragorn, leaping to his feet. 'Come and be warm, if you are cold!' He strode forward, but the old man was gone. There was no trace of him to be found near at hand, and they did not dare to wander far. The moon had set and the night was very dark.

It was an evil phantom of Saruman that we saw last night. I am sure of it, even under the light of morning.

'Wait a minute!' cried Gimli. 'There is another thing that I should like to know first. Was it you, Gandalf, or Saruman that we saw last night?'
'You certainly did not see me,' answered Gandalf, 'therefore I must guess that you saw Saruman. Evidently we look so much alike that your desire to make an incurable dent in my hat must be excused.'
'Good, good!' said Gimli. 'I am glad that it was not you.'

The question I have is what did the three see - Saruman or only just a phantom?
It does make sense Saruman perhaps so keen to get his hands on the Ring went as far so as to leave Isengard and go take it himself, but only discovered the corpses of the Uruks and afterwards caused the horses to flee hoping to weaken the three Hunters that way.

However, he was planning much at that time and was preparing to attack at the Fords of the Isen, this makes me doubt him leaving Orthanc at that time.

What is your opinion?

[Tuor in Gondolin]

It is of course an open question, and a favorite technique of
Tolkien in using ambiguous interpretations (a technique I rather like).
Saruman was, I think, almost certainly not there in person,
but projecting some sort of wraith works for me in a more
satisfactory way then PJ;s having having Saruman manipulate
Caradhras to cause a snowstorm.

But one aspect of Middle-earth PJ blew was the concept of autonomous
forces for good and evil, hence the "old man" could well have
been some other force then Saruman, however, I think Tolkien's
view of it may have been to 1) create an unresolved suspense 2) put in
another anomolous element (like Tom bambadil).

[Inziladun]

If we take Gandalf's word that is was not he who appeared to the three, it must have been Saruman, whether physically present or not. To me, the presence of another old man who just happened to be in the area and refused Aragorn's offer of fire and company would strain credibility. I would be inclined to think he was actually there, looking for evidence of the Ring, or at least Merry and Pippin.
Even though heavily involved in planning his war on the Rohirrim, I can well imagine his leaving Isengard for a few days to try to find first hand information on the whereabouts of the Ring.
Sorry for the brevity, but I'm at work and duty calls.

[Kitanna]

I always assumed it was Saruman or at least his phantom. If Gandalf had sent a phantom of himself he would have told the three hunters.

I always forget about this part until I read it, then for a few chapters I'm perplexed until I forget about it and the process starts anew when I reread.

afterwards caused the horses to flee hoping to weaken the three Hunters that way.

I seem to recall the horses may have fled not out of fear, but rather they met Shadowfax.

Whether they fled at first in fear, or not, our horses met Shadowfax, their chieftain, and greeted him with joy.

If Saruman was a phantom he had made this phantom with such perfection it was taken from flesh and blood which would mean he'd have to make a lot of noise or some great display to scare war horses off. I think rather Saruman (or phantom) was just out wandering about like he was prone to do.

Remember the words of Eomer: he walks about like an old man hooded and cloaked.

[alatar]

Saruman.

And didn't Gimli look for boot tracks, but can't remember if he ever found them. And didn't Aragorn say something like they didn't matter? And Legolas would have spotted that it was a phantom, so most likely it was Saruman out for a stroll, and having come across three hunters in the woods - no hobbits, no Rings, etc - he left as the three were of no concern.

And just what was that small rumbling in Fangorn?!?

Or maybe it was Tom Bombadil's shyer brother...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

If we take Gandalf's word that is was not he who appeared to the three, it must have been Saruman, whether physically present or not. To me, the presence of another old man who just happened to be in the area and refused Aragorn's offer of fire and company would strain credibility. I would be inclined to think he was actually there, looking for evidence of the Ring, or at least Merry and Pippin.

Of course it was Saruman, that is clear enough, and the reason for him being out there are just the ones you say. The only question is whether he'd be there in person or just as a phantom.

I have been little puzzled though, if I recall, didn't the old man smile at Aragorn&co? I could imagine that if he found the Orcs dead, and presumed them having the Ring first, he would be scared to death! (Now somebody surely has the Ring - who? Sauron? The Rohirrim? These three guys???) He acted very calm. Okay, maybe that would speak also for that not being Saruman in person - this was just a harmless phantom, Saruman in flesh and blood would have shown the three guys some of his power to get them to answer his questions (or hand over the Ring). The only thing I can think of about stopping a live Saruman from doing that is that he would be more afraid of the three guys than he gave away, possibly afraid of them having the Ring and being powerful enough to use it against them? Or that he thought them merely "some three wanderers", which would be most weird, though: and Elf and a Dwarf, and just by chance close to the place where the Orcs were killed. If he was scared of them, I could imagine him at least scaring away their horses, if he couldn't do anything else. But I find it now actually more probable (after thinking about it) that it was really just a phantom of Saruman, not Saruman himself (although until this far, I presumed it was Saruman, without giving it much thought).

Originally Posted by Kitanna

If Saruman was a phantom he had made this phantom with such perfection it was taken from flesh and blood which would mean he'd have to make a lot of noise or some great display to scare war horses off. I think rather Saruman (or phantom) was just out wandering about like he was prone to do.

I think actually the phantom, if it was "done well", may have scared the horses pretty well. He came to them and said "boo boo" and lit his eyes, and there was most likely something unnatural to be felt about the phantom just because it was a phantom. So, if the animals could feel the phantom at all (which they must have, as they reacted - of course all this is done with the assumption that it was indeed a phantom), they would have been very likely to feel something unnatural about it, thus, be far more easily scared. And remember for example the Hobbits' ponies on the Barrow-Downs: they, unlike their masters, knew far better not to get near to the Barrow-Wights, and this may have been a similar thing for the horses.

Originally Posted by alatar

Or maybe it was Tom Bombadil's shyer brother...

Older brother, eh? Oh no, wait... TB is "Eldest"... in that case, younger brother. Ha, what does it mean then? The Bombadils' look the older, the younger they are! A very interesting contribution to the obscure topic of Bombadilology.

Originally Posted by Tuor in Gondolin

Saruman was, I think, almost certainly not there in person,
but projecting some sort of wraith

Projecting? Hmm... "Lord Uglúk?" "Yes, Master." "We have a new enemy. The young Hobbit who destroyed the Death Star..."