Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...)

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

'Twas a town without too many worries or cares,
So by monsters Storyland was caught unawares;
Its stories these days
Ain't your winsome wholesome lays,
They're filled with horror and blood; true nightmares."


And a warm welcome to the third game of Werewolf on the Barrow-Downs.

You are probably all familiar with the rules; if you need to brush up, find the orginal rules here and the additional rules here.

The players in this game are:

Azaelia of Willowbottom (Seller of Fruit and Vegetables)
Eomer of the Rohirrim (Philosopher/Layabout)
Evisse the Blue (Fishmonger)
Firefoot (Stable keeper)
Fordim Hedgethistle (Loremaster)
Holbytlass (Cobbler)
Kuruharan (Resident Dwarf)
mormegil (Cleric/Religious Leader)
Oddwen (Gardener/Florist)
Shelob (Story Teller)
Son of Numenor (Bushy-bearded contractor)
the guy who be short (Merry Village Bard)
The Only Real Estel (Poor merchant)
the phantom (Town crier)
The Saucepan Man (Brewer)


The village comprises:

3 werewolves
1 seer
1 guardian
1 werewolf hunter
1 cursed villager
8 ordinary villagers


For now, the Sun is slowly rising. The village of Storyland seems as peaceful as ever.

The first day will begin in around 30 minutes at 6PM GMT (that's 1PM EST) and (12noon Central).

I hope you are sleeping peacefully.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

The residents of the village of Storyland awoke feeling slightly odd, but chirpy nevertheless; it was, after all, a beautiful sunny morn.

As they went to and fro however, it became clear that something funny had been going on. Maybe it was just something in the water, but there was, for some reason, much talk about strange visions of Werewolves. Everyone had had one the previous night, apparently. Just a solitary vision, conjured from nowhere, of a terrifying beast, the kind of which had been much told about in the preceding generations of this queer little village.

Being ridiculously superstitious, the villagers got into quite a panic. What did this mean?

They decided to check all the houses in turn. It didn't take long because most of the villagers were already out fretting in the village square. Not all of them though.

"Where's Eomer?" asked someone.

"I expect he's sleeping late, as usual" grumbled another. Eomer of the Rohirrim was not a particularly popular person in this village. Indecent behaviour, that sort of thing....

Anyway, they went to check up on him. At the door there was no answer: the villagers forced their way in. They were confronted with a truly gruesome sight. Eomer had been mangled horrifically. He was barely recognisable, only some observant villagers noted his distinctive hair turned red with blood. Even his books had been cruelly despoiled, so now his philosophic wisdom would never be shared with others.

Who could do such a horrible thing to such a handsome man? wailed the villagers. Superstitions in this case indicated reality: the village now had a werewolf problem.


Living:

Azaelia of Willowbottom
Evisse the Blue
Firefoot
Fordim Hedgethistle
Holbytlass
Kuruharan
mormegil
Oddwen
Shelob
Son of Numenor
the guy who be short
The Only Real Estel
the phantom
The Saucepan Man

Dead:

Eomer of the Rohirrim (Villager) - mangled by werewolves on NIGHT 1

Score:

Werewolves: 3
Villagers: 11

The first DAY has begun now it is 6PM GMT (1PM EST and 12 noon Central). It will end in 24 hours time, or earlier if a majority vote is reached before then.

Villagers, start panicking!

[the guy who be short]

Oh villagers of Storyland, our hamlet takes a blow
Eomer has fallen, unimaginable woe
What can man do against such violent hate?
How can we possibly retaliate?
A blind shot into the dark we must now take
For it is our lives at stake...

[The Saucepan Man]

Darn! He was one of my best customers too!

It seems to me that a pint of Saucepan's Old Potbolier is in order. One of my finest ales, it is. Really puts hairs on yer chest ...

Oops! Bad choice of words.

There now. That'll calm the nerves and help us get our thinking caps on.

Now, who could have done such a terrible thing? Any ideas?

*Stares intently at the phantom and Kuruharan*

[mormegil]

Well sung guy who be short. The best corse of action is to analyse each villager and the werewolf will present him/herself inadvertently based on their responses. Everyone is a suspect currently and we need to hear some defense from indivduals. I would like to hear from two in particular, namely Saucepan Man and Kuruharan. They both live a lifestyle that has made me highly suspect of their character, what with brewing and drinking naught but ale. Now I know that this doesn't imply guilt of murder but we would be wise at looking closely them. And also Kuruharan is new to our village and that casts more doubt on him.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by mormegil

... what with brewing and drinking naught but ale.

Since when did this become a valid basis for an accusation of murder? Indeed, my tendency to the bottle inevitably aids me in enjoying a most peaceful night's sleep. Most nights I am incapable of even snuffing out the candle, let alone carrying out a grisly murder.

But what about yourself, friend cleric? Since you are so keen to cast aspersions with not a shred of evidence, perhaps you could explain why we shouldn't be looking to you in this grim matter?

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Since when did this become a valid basis for an accusation of murder? Indeed, my tendency to the bottle inevitably aids me in enjoying a most peaceful night's sleep. Most nights I am incapable of even snuffing out the candle, let alone carrying out a grisly murder.

Sauepan Man, I am suprised that you didn't read more carefully I said:

They both live a lifestyle that has made me highly suspect of their character, what with brewing and drinking naught but ale. Now I know that this doesn't imply guilt of murder but we would be wise at looking closely them

I was questioning your character not accusing you my friend. Now if you find a nasty character there you will likely find nasty deeds.

But what about yourself, friend cleric? Since you are so keen to cast aspersions with not a shred of evidence, perhaps you could explain why we shouldn't be looking to you in this grim matter

By all means you should be looking at me, as I said we should be looking at all people. As is well known my nightly routine consists of study, prayer and meditation. After which I retire rather early to bed and sleep rather soundly till just before dawn, unless I am woken by your lot making enough noise to raise the dead.

[The Only Real Estel]

I must admit I have no suspicions in particular. I never knew the chap very well, though I can’t say I’ve had much time for chatting lately what with my business as it is and all. He did always greet me when we passed on the street and every once in awhile we’d sit down and have one of Saucey’s brews. That phantom fellow could sometimes make me feel a bit uncomfortable, but I think that might be just because he could make me look like a fool in a battle of wits. So I’m not goin’ and accusing him based on that, just commenting. I can see there’s a problem here that’ll take some attending to, though; so I guess I’ll be having to lay my business aside for awhile or else I’ll be so muddled between the two I’ll need another ale to set me straight.

[Son of Númenor]

I don't reckon Mr. Eomer did much for this town in the way of trade or craft, but I'll surely miss his queer storytellin' and musings. I remember on a time I says to him, as I's finishing up building him a third wall for his shack, I says, "Now Mr. Eomer, now that you've got a third wall, how's about I go ahead and build you a fourth?"

"Why?" he replies, in his usual way.

"Why?" I says back to him. "Why, without proper walls you'll have mildew and ants in no time, as sure as you've got books and candles now."

"A man who sees a wall no matter which way he turns is a man who is trapped," he says. I took this to mean he didn't have the funds to pay me for a fourth wall.

"Why that's just silly," says I. "You'll have a door and a window to leave when you like." He just chuckled, as he was wont do to, and thanked me for my work.

No, I may not have understood that feller most of the time, but he was friendly in his way, and I'll miss him. At any rate he might not have fallen victim to those fell beasts had he taken my advice about that wall.

I've got my suspicions about who offed Mr. Eomer. That Firefoot, for one. Not two weeks ago I was painting one of her stables and installing new hinges on her doors, and I noticed her horses were all on edge, neighing and stomping an unusual fair bit. The Guy Who Be Short, too, seemed jealous of Mr. Eomer's learning, always trying to show him up at town book readings and the like.

[Firefoot]

Ah, poor Eomer. He was a queer sort, but good with the horses, you see.

That Firefoot, for one. Not two weeks ago I was painting one of her stables and installing new hinges on her doors, and I noticed her horses were all on edge, neighing and stomping an unusual fair bit.

They sure were. I couldn't figure it out for the life of me; they've not been like that before or since - until last night, that is. That'd be the werewolves no doubt. It's the oddest thing, don't you think, that they should only be acting up right when you're around, SoN? I tend to go by a rule of thumb that animals have a better judgment of people than people do, so that ought to tell you something.

But then, you never know, with all these strange goings-on there may have been someone else prowling about the stable. Plenty of nooks to hide in, you know, and I can't be everywhere at once.

[the guy who be short]

Arise, brave villagers! Your words go to waste!
You have been distracted when you are in need of haste
Two thirds of the day is wasted in debate
Of a system hard to contemplate
Night and fear draw near at last
Our votes must very soon be cast.

I must applaud The Only Real Estel for trying to get us back on track (even if he did name me as a suspect ). Instead of deciding who we should be suspecting, we are fiddling with new concepts of voting, just as I thought we would.
This raises some questions in my eyes.

Look at post 13 and above, and then 14 and below. Debate was just really getting started when suddenly, Fordim appeared with lots of controversial ideas that plunged us into chaos and stopped names being named.
Now here's a question for you. These ideas are changes to the structure of how we vote, to the structure of... the g**e. Obviously these should be put forward to the Hamlet Council [Werewolf Thread 1] rather than inserted into the middle of the debate here, so why were they placed here?

Secondly there is the nature of the ideas. As Mormegil, Firefoot , Phantom and I all pointed out, the idea is laced with flaws which could help the wolves. Are the ideas simply badly thought out?

Thirdly, there is the fiddling with numbers. Observe this quote:

If we are lucky enough to catch a werewolf – and the odds are less than 1 in 50 that we will

At first glance, an innocent typo. 1 in 50, 1 in 5, easy mistake. However, look carefully. The 0 key is neither near the 5 that preceded it nor the space bar that followed it. How could such a typo possibly be made? Perhaps the number was increased to strike fear into the less mathematically sound, increasing the appeal of Fordim's ideas.
Finally, if we presume that 1 in 50 is, somehow, a typo for 1 in 5, the numbers are still wrong. As I have stated, 3 in 14 is a slightly better chance than 1 in 5. Furthermore, I would look at the use of the word less as another means to demoralise.


Having said all this, I would like to make a few points very clear. I myself am not convinced of Fordim's guilt (I would say I am about 33% sure), but I am even less sure about the rest of the villages' guilt. I mention Fordim simply because I feel names must start being named soon, or we will leave it too late.
Additionally, I believe balance here is key. Consider my arguments, yes. Please also consider everybody else's arguments and create your own ideas.
Also in the interest of balance, I look forward to getting a response from Fordim. I feel that I have missed something, and hope that his points can clear his name.

If it is to be a gauge for us to discern werewolves who are reluctant to set it up, we should be at least casting a glance or two in the direct of the guy who be short. He has been rather adament about not liking the changes, so that could be looked upon as suspicious.

Glancing at the ideas, I think they would help the wolves. However, I am now not so certain of the shortlisting idea. I will conduct some mind-wrenching mathematics later and display my findings later.
I am still adamantly against the Seer protection idea as the shortcomings have been very clearly demonstrated!

[Evisse the Blue]

Our village is surely one of abstract thinkers, because here they are, voting for/against an idea, instead of an individual.

Despite the reasons which motivated it being put forward by its author at such a time, Fordim's strategy is a well thought and solid one. It has its flaws, but any course of actions has risks. It could be employed to serve good just as well as to serve evil, provided the minds at work are cunning and most importantly work together. And this is the main problem which casts doubt over it as being advantageous to us in this particular situation. If there is even only one villager who cannot be persuaded to accept this idea, this idea is useless and the wolves will have complete advantage over us. They are only 3, and can communicate in ways we cannot know, whereas we can only communicate here for them to see. We have the advantage of numbers, yes, but this also gives the disadvantage of having lots of disagreements.
This idea may well be just a ploy to get everyone to react, as it has been suggested before, so that all of us can have something to work on.
Bearing this in mind, and also bearing in mind the ambiguous and risky nature of the strategy, I find myself quite suspicious of the ones who voice neither agreement nor disagreement with Fordim's idea, but instead wait for the others' to become confused and entangled in mathematical probabilities.
Equally I am suspicious (although perhaps it may only be my fishmongerish simplistic nature) of people who are able to change sides in the time it takes me to wheel my barrow down an alley. Phantom, your ability to defend/disprove of Fordim's idea with equal implication dazzles me a bit. You noticed Firefoot's initial problem with it, but chose not to take it into account at the time; later on you agree and expand on it, motivating this course of action by you waiting to see how the rest of us would react to it. I might say, though, that your mathematical analysis would have been of better use to us earlier on, since many of us found this aspect regarding probabilities and such quite confusing.

[Holbytlass]

I know I fall into Evisse's category of neither agreeing nor disagreeing, so I state my personal case here. She is correct in regards to me that I am waiting and I am seeing what everyone says. That's why I moved to Storyland, I know I'm not smart or a quick-witted, but I'm smart enough to surround myself with those who are. To hear what the great minds have to say, on all sides, then form an opinion myself. This makes me a simpleton, not a wolf.
For example, I did say that I thought the seer idea was a good one. Now that it has been stated of the huge advantage for the wolves I'm not so sure that we should do it. Now, no offense is meant for you, Mr. Fordim. The mere fact that you thought of and planned two daring ideas to protect all of us is mind boggling. I could never have done such a thing in a year and all we have is a day.
As the village cobbler, all I can put forth as fact is that nobody has ordered new shoes on account theirs have split suddenly.

[the guy who be short]

Numbers are allies to those that will use them
Though it not always easy to choose them
Should one use permutations, combinations, what should one do?
But I've got my head around it and report back to you.

Regarding the shortlisting suggestion. I need to know how many people would be on the shortlist roughly. Let us say a majority of 5 people voted for an innocent.

Now, of the 14 of us, 5 are chosen. There are 2002 different groups of 5 people that can be chosen from the group of 14. However, from the 11 villagers, there are only 465 ways in which 5 people can be chosen, so the overall chance of getting at least one wolf in the shortlist is 77%.
Compare this to the present system, where we have a 100% chance of beign able to vote for a wolf.

However, one person of the five is chosen to be killed. This is slightly more complex.
The probability that there are no wolves is 23%
The probability that there is one wolf in the 5 is 49%.
The probability that there are two wolves is 25%
The probability that all three wolves are in is 3%

Out of the five people, one is lynched at random.
If there are no wolves, there is a 0% chance of lynching one.
9.8% of the time, we will lynch the wolf when there is one.
10% of the time, we will lynch a wolf when there are two.
1.8% of the time, we will lynch a wolf when there are three.

Overall, we stand a 21.6% chance of getting a wolf in this way.

Normally, we vote for a random person out of 14. There is a 3 in 14, that is, 21.4% chance, of choosing a wolf.

Therefore, by implementing Fordim's rules, we are 0.2% more likely to lynch a wolf.

So there you go.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Thanks for validating my own work there TGWBS. Actually, the odds are precisely the same of catching a wolf overall whether by random lot or off a short list, that 0.2% advantage you've found in my system is the result of numbers being rounded off along the way as you calculated.

The advantage to the system I've proposed, to any system for that matter, is that there is a system into which we all, wolves and innocents, will 'fit' -- this seems to me a vast improvement over the current situation in which there are two systems that have us voting in ignorance and the wolves voting in knowledge.

The short list idea was meant to provide us with a way of making the votes meaningful and to avoid consensus; there is no magic solution in choosing a few people to vote for, only better (that is, more reliable) results for us to look at afterward. We need to make each vote count and we need to make everyone vote. Again, we can't let the wolves hide either by casting meaningless votes in a landslide or abstaining.

As to the seer protection idea -- you are right, Phantom, that the plan will in the long run make the seer more visible, but this will happen for wolves and innocents alike. And if the seer does make it to round three (at which point there will be at worst 3 wolves left and 5 innocents) then to kill the seer is to pinpoint him or her for us and give us the identies of 4 of the 8 people (and monsters) in the village: game over for the wolves!

As to my 1 in 50 numbers: there was no mistake in the math, not for this learned lore master, I merely misspoke. What I meant to say was that there is only a 1 in 50 chance of guaranteeing that we will catch a wolf in the first round by coming up with a short list. More boring math that I want to get away from: (3:14) x (2:13) x (1:12) = 6:2184 = 0.00274 (2.7%)

I agree that this is all highly theoretical at this point, however and we need to move toward casting some votes. I for one will hold on to my vote until closer to the deadline only so I can cast it in such a way as to spread the votes around. I'm not afraid of hiding my vote! There is no time anymore for a random selection of nominees, and I admit it was a tricky proposition in the first place, so I will just have to see what happens in the next few hours.

(I will admit here, however, that my suspicions are aroused by those who argue most voluably against our developing a common strategy, as it seems to me -- obviously -- that the wolves are the ones with something to fear from this. I am also going to keep my eye on those who have said much, but committed or ventured little to the discussion.)

As to the seer protection idea, I will leave that for the next round (presuming I surive the lynching and the night!) as we have more important wolves to skin at the moment.

[The Saucepan Man]

I would first make clear at the outset that circumstances have meant that I could not until now be present during this lively debate (beer doesn’t make itself you know ).

One point to clear up:

Originally Posted by TGWBS

Another thing that concerns me is Saucy's jesting.

As anyone who knows me could tell you, I take comfort in humour (and beer) in the face of distressing circumstances. And I will readily admit that the names that I have mentioned were put forward on the basis of no evidence. If anything, I was merely seeking to evince a reaction.

But the initial posts posts were really nothing but opening gambits and it is, I think, difficult to draw any conclusions from them whatsoever.

It is with Fordim’s bold idea and, in particular, the reactions to it, that the discussion has become really interesting.

I will first state my thoughts on Fordim’s proposed strategy. I will not go on at great length, for various the pros and cons have been stated already. For reasons that others have already stated, I see the “shortlist” idea as a very good mechanism for hanging a lot of innocent Villagers early on (the odds are more in favour of Villagers, rather than Werewolves, appearing on the random ‘shortlist’, at least at the outset). But, more importantly, I see the “Seer dream” idea as a perfect device for enabling the Werewolves to identify the Seer, or at least dramatically narrow down the list, very early on (see, in particular, the phantom’s last post on this.) Even if, having identified the Seer through this method, the Werewolves did not act upon it and kill the Seer immediately, it would enable them more effectively to neutralise his or her influence during the daytime discussions.

So, having considered it carefully, I am against both aspects of Fordim’s plan. It is, in principle, a good idea to carefully examine who people accuse, defend and vote for, but I would prefer not to do this in the structured manner which, to me, seems to favour the Werewolves more. However, I do welcome his having put his ideas forward for what they tell us about him and about those who have reacted to it.

First, what were Fordim’s motives in putting it forward? There are a number of possibilities:

1) Fordim is innocent and genuinely thinks that his plan, if implemented, will help even the odds and protect the Seer.
2) Fordim sees the shortcomings in his plan but, being a Werewolf, sees it as a way of helping his “side” (in particular by providing valuable information on the Seer’s identity).
3) Fordim sees the shortcomings in his plan but, being innocent, recognises that people’s reactions to it might be telling.
4) Fordim, being a Werewolf, wants to generate confusion and steer any accusations away from him.

Now, as an intelligent master of lore, I cannot believe that Fordim did not see the shortcomings in his plan, particularly as regards the Seer. So I am going to disregard 1). Of the remaining motives, the majority (two out of three) favour him being a Werewolf. But I remain undecided on this one, since it has been proved a jolly good way of getting people to react and, possibly, to provoke the Werewolves into making unguarded comments. However, I remain suspicious.

Which brings us to people’s reactions to the plan:

Firefoot spotted a flaw in the mathematics straight away and then posted convingly against the “Seer plan”.

The phantom was initially very mush in favour of the “Seer protection plan” (supporting it in three posts), but then, after its flaws had already been noted, posted convincingly and at length against it.

The Only Real Estel was against the shortlist from the start, but saw merit in the “Seer plan”.

TGWBS was immediately, and vocally, against the “Seer plan” and has been ever since, although he seems to support the "shortlist" idea on the mathematics.

Holbytlass liked the “Seer idea” but was undecided on the “shortlist”.

Kuru ventured no solid opinion on the plan but recognised its worth in gauging people’s reactions to it.

Evisse recognised the shortcomings of both plans, but thought we should go with it in the absence of anything better.

Shelob was in favour of the “Seer plan” but against the “shortlist”, on the basis of the mathematics.

Mormegil immediately spotted the key flaw in the “Seer plan” and has been against it.

SoN posted shortly simply to support Fordim’s idea with little explanation.

Based solely upon this (which is all we really have to go on at the moment), my suspicions are currently primarily directed towards Holbytlass, Evisse and SoN. They seem to be the most in favour of Fordim’s plans. Since they were in favour of the “Seer plan” (which seems to particularly favour the Werewolves), I am also suspicious of The Only Real Estel and Shelob. I am least suspicious (currently) of Firefoot, TGWBS and mormegil (despite my initial, playful, posts), since they have been against the proposals. One might put the phantom in the same category, but he initially supported the “Seer plan” and then turned against it when others had spotted its flaws. Good cover, perhaps, for someone who is intelligent enough to have spotted its flaws from the outset.

Kuru, as always, ventures no solid opinions. Which makes me suspicious of him too. And that is most certainly not a xenophobic reaction.

I have residual suspicions of those who have not yet commented on the plan, namely Azaelia and Oddwen. But they, like me, may simply not have had a chance to get here yet.

So those are my suspicions, but I shall reserve final judgement for a short while yet.

[The Saucepan Man]

The problem with your proposal, Fordim, is that there is a good chance that there will be no Werewolf in the radnomly chosen "shortlist". And, if that happens, an innocent Villager will automatically be lynched on DAY 1, an innocent Villager will automatically be killed in the night, and the results of the DAY 1 voting will tell us nothing and, statistically, be likely to result in the death of yet another innocent Villager.

While, as the numbers of innocent Villagers come down, it may help us out, it seems very much to favour the Werewolves in the opening few days. Thereafter, the effects of the opening few days will begin to favour the Werewolves in terms of numbers. The Werewolves need to get the Villagers' numbers down quickly and early on, without losing one of their own, and this seems to provide them with a good way of doing so. Personally, I would prefer to rely on "gut" instinct and a careful analysis of what people say than randomly choosing names out of a hat.

As for the "Seer protection plan", this may provide us with valuable information as the game wears on, but it will provide the Werewolves with essential information very early on. They will be able to narrow down their list of possible Seers on DAY 2 and, as the phantom said, will be pretty much sure who the Seer is by DAY 4 at the latest. Now, they would be silly to kill the Seer in those circumstances, given that we will all have the same information. But, as I said, they would be more able to neutralise his or her effect. Combined with a dwindling number of innocent Villagers (courtesy of your "shortlist"), this would give them a very distinct advantage.

Finally, I would have thought that now was the time to come out and admit that your proposals were a ploy to try to flush out potential Werewolves. Since you continue to defend the proposals, my suspicions of you are now very much heightened.

[the guy who be short]

I would like to reinforce Fordim's point: after further calculations, it is true, the percentage remains the same.

So the question is will this benefit us as Fordim said.

At the moment, I am not sure, one way or the other. On the one hand, Fordim has compelling arguments, on the other, the wolves could hijack the system.

I'm undecided. I am still against the new Seer ideas, but my suspicion about Fordim's maths proved false. I am almost convinced.

One final thing, Fordim. Why did you decide to post here instead of in the Town Hall [Werewolf 1] where all questions concerning our democracy [game structure] should go? Or are you suggesting that we should simply use this system unofficially?

[the guy who be short]

Kuru, as always, ventures no solid opinions. Which makes me suspicious of him too. And that is most certainly not a xenophobic reaction.

Dwarrowphobia is in many ways worse than Xenophobia.

I will have to think about Fordim's shortlist strategy, I am currently neutral, Saucy, not pro. But one thing I will say in its defence:

I see the “shortlist” idea as a very good mechanism for hanging a lot of innocent Villagers early on (the odds are more in favour of Villagers, rather than Werewolves, appearing on the random ‘shortlist’, at least at the outset)

Unstructured voting would have exactly the same odds. Neither system will help us mathematically.