The Man Who Bit a Fell-Beast

[Formendacil]

Somewhat inspired by Soriman's thread, I have taken an oath to myself to post something, somewhere on the 'Downs daily. Yesterday it was Crazy Captions. Tomorrow it is... who knows?

Lacking any threads to reply to, I find the real world to be largely full of only one great story--but this is not such a bad inspiration, because there are pestilences--indeed, plagues--in Middle-earth, and I have a tiny bit more appreciation for the Great Plague of the Third Age's seventeenth century, which depeopled great swathes of the West. Perhaps if the Dúnedain had the epidemiologists we do, things might have gone differently.

The glances at Covid-19 are something of a tongue-in-cheek comparison, since that can be a somewhat incendiary topic (though, in the spirit of upping my post-frequency, some flames might be productive...), but it does make me wonder, in the absence of there being any definitive evidence, if this great plague was the work of Sauron or merely something he took advantage of. It's far enough into the Third Age that he was certainly active, but Sauron doesn't have to be the source of all evils.

If engineered by Sauron, does this imply that the Maiar can manipulate micro-organisms? Or did Sauron just encourage the Orks to open a really nasty wet market in Nurnen until all the Easterlings started to drop like flies?

[Inziladun]

This really is a great topic, and something I've considered before.

If I recall correctly, the plague came "out of the East", so I think the intimation leads to Sauron being the originator.
If that's the case, he was obviously targeting Men with it, knowing that Gondor was guarding Mordor, and Elves wouldn't be affected anyway.

[Boromir88]

Oh good topic that is open to a bunch of wild guessing and speculation.

I'm not sure if this is directly related, but from Inzil's thread there was discussion about the plague Melkor sent and then the one in the Third Age.

Melkor is totally the type of villain that would send a plague to his enemies, but also wouldn't care how it would effect his own designs. As we know Tolkien refers to him as a nihilist and he wouldn't care if the "Evil Breath" killed his own. But was Sauron?

Well, he wasn't a nihilist, but what I do like about him (as a villain in a book) is he thinks and acts as an immortal. Too many fantasy authors create immortal villains but don't necessarily act like one, Sauron does. He's quite patient, as in Numenor and then when he returns in the Third Age.

I believe the date given is circa 1100 that an evil power inhabited Dol Guldur. Sauron spends thousands of years weakening resistance to reach his end goal. He acts like an immortal villain, patient and plays the long game. So, while I don't think Sauron liked being wasteful with resources (like Melkor was) if he did send the plague that also effected his own troops it could be in his calculations that's an acceptable loss for his long-term designs, if his goal at the time was to get Gondor out of Mordor, as well as depopulate Eriador.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I never read is as an evil conjured up by Sauron. I think the reason for this is fairly simple. 1) Tolkien never states that it is created by Sauron (or anyone for that matter) and 2) It seems to be a one off thing in the third age.

Continuing from the second point, if you developed chemical warfare (or improved on it, as Melkor appears to be the creator), and it had the desired effect. Why on middle-earth would you limit your self to one go? Surely you could perfect it, or make it even more precise in targeting exactly the creatures you want to rid your self off.

[Huinesoron]

Not to ascribe all ills to the actions of dark powers, but I'm becoming convinced that this ill can be ascribed to... you get it. ^_~

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

1) Tolkien never states that it is created by Sauron (or anyone for that matter)

He comes within half an inch of doing so, though!

Originally Posted by Appendix A

Soon after a deadly plague came with dark winds out of the East. The King and all his children died, and great numbers of the people of Gondor, especially those that lived in Osgiliath. Then for weariness and fewness of men the watch on the borders of Mordor ceased and the fortresses that guarded the passes were unmanned.

Later it was noted that these things happened even as the Shadow grew deep in Greenwood, and many evil things reappeared, signs of the arising of Sauron. It is true that the enemies of Gondor also suffered, or they might have overwhelmed it in its weakness; but Sauron could wait, and it may well be that the opening of Mordor was what he chiefly desired.

Tolkien is not, by and large, an unreliable narrator, so when he says in a published book that 'everyone thought X', I'm inclined to accept that X is something he wants to tell us is true. But! Also, that line about how the plague came 'with dark winds' out of the East. That's not a natural phenomenon - it reminds me too much of the Shadow over Minas Tirith, or of the Black Breath.

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

2) It seems to be a one off thing in the third age.

Continuing from the second point, if you developed chemical warfare (or improved on it, as Melkor appears to be the creator), and it had the desired effect. Why on middle-earth would you limit your self to one go? Surely you could perfect it, or make it even more precise in targeting exactly the creatures you want to rid your self off.

Side-effects and means of deployment. Middle-earth functions on natural rules, so it follows that to spread a genuine plague (not a magical curse like the Black Breath) Sauron would need to use natural means. He can create it magico-technologically, but to spread it he needs a vector. That tells me two things:

1) The plague began in the east, devastating the people of Rhun and knocking out Sauron's own army. That's fine if, as Boro says, you're happy to wait a few hundred years to take advantage!

What's less fine is if someone takes notice of your armies' weakness and decides to attack you. Nobody knew Sauron was out there at the time of the Plague, but once the Wise started to realise... well, he'd been attacked by an unexpected alliance who should have still been reeling from catastrophe before, he wasn't going to give them another opportunity.

2) Even if he'd wanted to, though - how? Plagues are carried by animals, humans included. The Great Plague came at a time when Rhun, Rhovanion, and Gondor all lived side by side, allowing for easy airborne transmission, or movement of rats in shipments, or what have you. After the plague, though, Rhovanion was essentially gone! There was no even slightly friendly contact between Sauron's domain and the West - meaning there was no way for a New Plague to cross between them.

If we assume that Sauron had to start it by letting it loose in his own population and having it spread naturally, using it after Rhovanion's depopulation would be a wild gamble. Nine times out of ten, it would just run through the folk of Rhun and then burn out before reaching anyone he actually wanted dead. Sauron's pretty dumb, but even he didn't want that.

~

On a different note, COVID definitely helps to paint in the details of how people in Gondor would have reacted (details Tolkien knew first-hand from the Spanish Flu). You'd have seen everything from people refusing any contact even with the rest of their household, to people insisting there was no plague and that it was just a bad cold even as they died of it. There'd be cities which locked down instantly when they heard about it (and watched their economies crash), and others which mocked them for their skittishness until their own people began to die off wholesale. Government response would range from ineffective and slapdash, to heavy-handed oppression.

In fact... it's plausible to paint a picture of King Telemnar in Osgiliath, insisting to one and all that Everything Is Fine (it's just the Rhovanion lot making a fuss over nothing), while his nephew Tarondor, steward of Minas Anor, locks down the fortress and refuses to let anyone in or out. Fast forward only a few months, and Telemnar's family is dead, Tarondor is king - and in order to keep his new realm under control, he calls back the soldiers from the gates of Mordor to patrol the streets of his remaining cities and prevent the people protesting his harsh measures.

Yeah, lots and lots of details we can paint in.

(Meanwhile in Arthedain: "Your majesty, the last of the people of Cardolan have succumbed to the plague!" "Oh! I didn't realise there was anyone left there anyway. ... does that mean it's mine now?")

hS

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

1) The plague began in the east, devastating the people of Rhun and knocking out Sauron's own army. That's fine if, as Boro says, you're happy to wait a few hundred years to take advantage!

You know I've been trying to think if Sauron did engineer the plague, with the intention of getting Gondor to withdraw their presence in Mordor, why would he start in Rhun, among the Men who later would swell his army size? Why not begin it in Gondor and Eriador, the populations he really wanted to effect? There are a few reasons I can think of...

1. Sauron didn't want to be outed at this early stage in his designs yet. Appendix B notes that in circa 1100 the Istari and Eldar believed the power that came to Dol Guldur was a Nazgul. TA 1636 the plague spreads through Gondor and if Sauron did engineer it, he still would be laying low and not wanted his enemies to know he's returned. Targeting Gondor first may have revealed Sauron was behind it before he wanted to be outed. Which leads to the 2nd reason...

2. Starting it in Rhun, would cement the growing hostilities between Rhun and Gondor, which would make them enemies for centuries. I can see Gondor blaming Rhun for where the plague originated (seeing how people have reacted to Covid-19 and thinking about Huey's post, the Gondorians of Telemnar's time could have been squawking "Rhunavirus-36!")

Gondor recently fought the kinstrife, so from Sauron's perspective there were already enemies from the South that would be ready to oppose Gondor. In his long-term designs, "let me start a plague in Rhun to spark hostilities and ensure that Rhun and Gondor aren't allies when I'm finally ready to start my war a thousand years later."

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

He comes within half an inch of doing so, though!

Yup you are right, my memory fails me. Odd as I have just gone through the appendix a few months ago.