Gandalf's First Sacrifice

[Inziladun]

I am currently re-reading The Hobbit for the first time in I couldn't say how long. I've just gotten to this part, where the goblins and wolves have Thorin and Co. stuck in the trees:

Then Gandalf climbed to the top of his tree. The sudden splendour flashed from his wand like lightning, as he got ready to spring down from on high right among the spears of the goblins. That would have been the end of him, though he would probably have killed many of them as he came hurtling down like a thunderbolt.

The Hobbit Out of the Frying-Pan Into the Fire

But for the arrival of the eagles, the implication clearly is that Gandalf fully intended to jump from the tree and try to kill as many enemies as possible, giving the rest of the Company a decent chance to escape.
He faced a somewhat similar situation years later with the Fellowship on the Bridge of Khazad-dûm; similar in that on both occasions Gandalf believed his back was against the wall, and only a sacrifice by himself would allow his friends to have a chance of escaping.
If he had, in fact, been obliged to jump from the tree it certainly would have destroyed his body. Would he then have returned? After all, his task, the defeat of Sauron, was still before him. And if he returned, would it have been as the White? I'm inclined to think no on the last question. Any thoughts?

[Formendacil]

While I incline to agree with your answer, that Gandalf would not have returned--at least not as Gandalf the White, and probably not returned at all, it strikes me as fascinating to speculate what if Gandalf the White HAD appeared.

Because by this time, though no one knew it, Saruman was well on the path to evil. Or, rather, let me correct myself: no one, presumably, no one among the Wise or in the West knew. Eru presumably did, and when Gandalf actually returns in The Lord of the Rings, it is because Eru sends him back. On the assumption that the Allfather is omniscient (which is admittedly borrowing from "Real World" philosophy but I think it's safe), he would have known Saruman had turned... and thus that Gandalf was still needed, more than ever.

Of course, with a bent for Divine Providence in my system, I'm willing to say that Eru acted through the Eagles--or perhaps, more convolutedly, since Eru is undoubtedly intelligent enough for convolutions--Eru acted through the Valar acting through the Eagles, who happen to show up just in time. Knowing what is to come, this strikes me as having the same sort of divine serendipity to it as Bilbo finding the Ring--Gandalf was meant to fall saving Frodo from the Balrog, returning just in time to fight Saruman and Sauron at the only moments when an unveiled Istar would have been "permitted."

However, if we engage in some counter-factualism, the appearance of Gandalf the White on the scene--had Eru gone for it--80 years early would have messed with Middle-earth rather strongly. A lot depends, of course, on whether or not Gandalf's death was successful. I'm inclined to think so, since it worked the second time, but there's no guaranteeing Thorin & Co. would have made it all the way to Erebor. If they had, there's no apparent reason things couldn't have gone as planned--Gandalf's contribution effectively ends with Beorn sending them off--but the Battle of the Five Armies could have been disastrous: the Elves and Dalemen decimate the Dwarves, and vice versa, and the orks arrive just in time to destroy the tired remnants. Even if the Eagles show up, perhaps it's to do nothing more than help a few sorry survivors escape--including, I would hope, an invisible Bilbo.

Gandalf the White, perhaps, would turn up about now, hopefully having more knowledge about the Ring, given that Eru was involved. Even so, he has to get Bilbo to Mt. Doom and either hope the Hobbit can let it go himself (which, one remembers, he did manage in LotR--albeit in Bag-End with Gandalf's help) or else he'll have to chuck Bilbo in whole. Unpleasant all around, and perhaps Gandalf falls morally.

But this assumes Gandalf can go at all. This might be a case of delegation--perhaps a band of survivors from the disastrous Battle of the Five Armies becomes the Fellowship of the Ring: Bard replaces Aragorn, Legolas tags along fatherless, and a dour trio of Glóin, Fíli, and Balin--all that's left of Thorin & Co. Meanwhile, Gandalf leaves what's left of the three "good" armies under the care of Dáin or somebody, while orks continue to overrun Wilderland, and both Sauron and Saruman are alerted (via palantír or spy... I doubt they failed to watch the Battle of the Five Armies or note Gandalf's reappearance), and now there's war against Rohan and Gondor and Lórien. Admittedly, Sauron's not prepared--he's still in Dol Guldur, and a long way from building up his War of the Ring forces, but he's got forces aplenty, and the Nazgûl can still strike Gondor from Minas Morgûl.

The decisive difference is that Rohan probably wouldn't face much of a threat in Saruman, who would still be early along in building his armies, though perhaps orks from the Misty Mountains would compensate. If Saruman was a force at all, perhaps it would be in driving a wedge between Gondor and Rohan (he's technically the Gondorian ward of Orthanc, after all). Much depends who was on the throne in Rohan and Gondor--but I don't think they were remarkable men yet. If it was Fengel in Rohan, certainly not, and I seem to recall that Turgon was an old man near the end of his life when Sauron returned to Mordor from Dol Guldur. Alas, I don't have my books with me.

All in all... yeah... I got a little carried away. It's a fascinating idea, though. And, confound it, that looks like a really awesome RPG idea...

[CSteefel]

When I read this recently, I actually had a hard time believing the Gandalf could not handle a bunch of goblins. But then perhaps I am thinking of the Gandalf of LOTR, the guy who held off nine Nazgul all night on Weathertop, then later fried a whole bunch of wolves on the border of Eregion (Hollin). My guess is that Tolkien had not quite decided how powerful Gandalf was to be when he wrote this in the Hobbit...

[Lalwendë]

Oooh, thorny!

Of course, you could take it that this is supposedly Bilbo's story and what to him might have looked positively suicidal may not have been so to Gandalf. They are Maiar, just clothed in the bodies of 'old men' and we already know just how strong he is from his various fights in Lord of the Rings. So this could just be Bilbo's perception of the incident.

And the other interpretation is that Gandalf may well have known the Eagles were coming. He climbed to the top of the tree after all, and the light he conjoured up could actually have been a signal.

[Ibrîniðilpathânezel]

There is always that "inside the story" versus the "outside the story" angle, isn't there? From inside, it's Bilbo's tale, "There and Back Again, a Hobbit's Holiday," which is a far cry from the same viewpoint as a person on the outside, reading the story as part of a much, much bigger and greater whole. As presented in the Hobbit, just about everything has the feeling of being less than it is in LotR and TS. The Elves of Rivendell are silly, the Dwarves might well have been given names like Grumpy and Fatso, the Elves of Mirkwood are party guys who get nasty and bigoted (possibly from party hangovers), the terrifying trolls are the Three Stooges.... I'd say there's a lot of Bilbo's naïveté in the depictions of peoples and places we see in The Hobbit (now, who really believes that Gandalf's eyebrows stick out beyond the brim of his hat? ).

That said, IF Gandalf had died at that juncture, I suspect that several matters would have led to his return, but probably not as the White at this point (the fact that Bilbo notes that Gandalf seems to come and go without notice or warning could set up a scenario in which, having been left behind, presumably dead, when he shows up later as his usual self, it would be supposed that he had not actually died but had again gone off suddenly, or merely appeared to be dead, "playing possum" for the benefit of the goblins). If Eru knows all that is going on in the world, He would know that Saruman is already heading down the wrong path, but may yet turn back, with help and support. Gandalf is likely the only person who could give it to him, as Saruman's pride would not accept it from lesser beings (Radagast included; he never appeared to have anything but contempt for him). There is no need for Gandalf to come back as the White at this point; in fact, it could cause a lot of problems, and serve to further separate the peoples the Istari were sent to unite, as it would undoubtedly put a huge rift between Gandalf and Saruman and almost ensure that Saruman would side with Sauron. Coming back as the Grey, yes; there is a considerable amount of work left for him to do, especially in guiding and protecting Bilbo, who was meant to find the Ring, and Frodo, who was meant to carry it to Mordor. And there is still that Balrog potentially waiting in the future, where Gandalf can die again, and THEN come back as the White.

His death now, just as the Ring is coming out of hiding, would be bad, and I could see that Eru would not want Gandalf taken out of the picture just yet. However, I think that if Eru were to take a hand in this (presuming Gandalf did hurl himself down from that tree), it would be to make sure he did NOT die. Landing on a group of suddenly conveniently placed goblins or wolves could be enough to do the trick. He might come out a bit injured, to cover up the "miracle" -- but then, being a wizard, if something miraculous HAD happened, others might just put it down to being a wizardly trick.

Interesting thought, though.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Ibrîniðilpathânezel

His death now, just as the Ring is coming out of hiding, would be bad, and I could see that Eru would not want Gandalf taken out of the picture just yet. However, I think that if Eru were to take a hand in this (presuming Gandalf did hurl himself down from that tree), it would be to make sure he did NOT die. Landing on a group of suddenly conveniently placed goblins or wolves could be enough to do the trick.

Why so complicated? Eru would have used the Eagles to save Gandalf, that's his intervention. So in fact one cannot pass this "what would Eru do if the Eagles didn't turn up in time", as that's what he actually did, I would say. I think we are actually facing something here, Form is right and it never occured to me before:

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Of course, with a bent for Divine Providence in my system, I'm willing to say that Eru acted through the Eagles--or perhaps, more convolutedly, since Eru is undoubtedly intelligent enough for convolutions--Eru acted through the Valar acting through the Eagles, who happen to show up just in time. Knowing what is to come, this strikes me as having the same sort of divine serendipity to it as Bilbo finding the Ring--Gandalf was meant to fall saving Frodo from the Balrog, returning just in time to fight Saruman and Sauron at the only moments when an unveiled Istar would have been "permitted."

Of course Eru would intervene. He intervenes here, I am sure. Form says it pretty well! What are the Eagles? Aren't they the device that comes up only in really important parts of the story? Are they not appearing only a few times of world-shaking importance - and one might as well ask, why the heck are they appearing now? We just gave ourselves the answer: to save Gandalf! To put it in a bit silly phrased words, "this was not the day for him to die yet".

Though otherwise, of course, the speculations here are quite nice. One more thing I would point out to them, though - let us not forget what was the situation back then. Dol Guldur. Why did Gandalf leave the Company at Mirkwood? To go to the White Council's meeting, to support the attack on Sauron, and then to go to Dol Guldur and drive Sauron away. That was an important blow, and only then Gandalf returned to Erebor to the Battle of the Five Armies. So if you are making assumptions "what would have happened, if Gandalf died on the tree", don't forget that that would mean no Gandalf coming to the White Council. And who knows? Saruman was intending to get rid of Sauron back then already, as he crossed his plans, but would he not back away if there was not Gandalf present? And would the others dare to do it without Gandalf, too? Wouldn't it be too much of a shift in powers? Sauron would have the Wilderness in his hands, especially if the Battle of the Five Armies was lost too. Not sure how well his relations with the Easterling tribes were back then, and how exactly the situation was favourable for him back then (like, if the political situation in the East at that time would allow him to summon the Easterlings to his cause fast and strike to the West. If yes, then good riddance, Middle-Earth). By the way, thank goodness that Smaug would have been probably killed nevertheless! (Quite an important factor, if you recall what Gandalf said in UT about the fact that if Sauron and the Dragon joined forces, it would mean total disaster.) I think there would be at least some hope, but the political balance in M-E would be shifted in such a disasterous way that the West would face serious problems by then. Sauron would not have had built up his armies in Mordor yet, but he would have had far better starting position, having an unharmed base of operation in Mirkwood and open route through the Wilderness (no Kingdom of Dale to worry about), he could easily retake Angmar soon. Bilbo could retreat to the Shire by then, but he could not get far, the Shadow would lie as far as the Misty Mountains and possibly it will even start creeping into Rhudaur. Rivendell may as well have been surrounded, like in old times. And we cannot say for sure about Saruman, as he would be afraid, so afraid that Sauron will now get the Ring - as he will still presume that it's somewhere in the Gladden Fields - and who knows what he would do.

[Tuor in Gondolin]

Interesting surmises. When reading The Hobbit you tend to forget
that it's a Bilbo-centric tale, and the point of him underestimating
Gandalf's attack on the wolves may have a point.

About Formendacil's speculations on Rohan and Gondor, it's possible
Fengel's son Thengel, already having done well in Gondor and with
connections and sympathy for Gondor, would have returned earlier to
Gondor to influence his rather hedonistic dad and marshall a
strong and reconstituted Rohirrim.

Gondor would have been in not only a relatively stronger position
vis-a-vis Mordor but also with at least competent leadership in Turin II.

[It was Turin that built secret refuges for his soldiers in
Ithilien, of which Henneth Annun was the longest guarded and manned.
He also fortified again the isle of Cair Andros to defend Anorien. But his
chief peril lay in the south, where the Haradrim had occupied South
Gondor, and there was much fighting along the Poros. When Ithilien was
invaded in great strength, King Folcwine of Rohan [Fengel's father] fulfilled
the Oath of Eorl and repaid his debt for the aid brought by Geregond, sending
many men to Gondor. With their aid Turin won a victory at the crossing of the Poros

P.S. If Sauron did try to stir things up you could indeed see 10,000 spears
(hopefully accompanied by 10,000 of the Rohirrim ) riding south to aid
Gondor, or 5,000 or so north with some Gondorian infantry to contest Ringwraith led
mischief in the north (perhaps in a loose allaince with elves-due to Rohan (and Gondorians)
fear of elvish "witchcraft") and more formally with dwarves and men in various locales around
the vales of Anduin and/or Dale).

P.P.S. It would seem Sauron was rather wise to build up his forces and wait upon events.