Werewolf XXX - Tol-in-Elendili - The Isle of the Were-Faithfuls

[Macalaure]

Then suddenly fire burst from the Meneltarma, and there came a mighty wind and a tumult of the earth, and the sky reeled, and the hills slid, and Númenor went down into the sea, with all its children and its wives and its maidens and its ladies proud; and all its gardens and its halls and its towers, its tombs and its riches, and its jewels and its webs and its things painted and carven, and its laughter and its mirth and its music, its wisdom and lore, its rubber ducks and cuckoo clocks. ~ The Akallabêth.

We are in the year 3319 S.A. All of Númenor has been devoured by the Sea…

All of Númenor? No! The top of the Meneltarma still peaks out of the waves, and its inhabitants will not cease to resist the dreadful power of that phantom Eru Ilúvatar.

Few they were who made the way up the hallowed mountain… um, hill, now… and saved their precious lives from the jealous paws of eternal death. There were rumours that even their queen, Ar-Zimraphel, was able to escape, but none knew whether she hid amongst them, and little did they trust her anyway.

One of the men stood up: Macalaure, most proud and strong, loved by women, adored by children and envied by men, most lordly and radiant, mostly brave and… ahem… well, anyway, the captain of the reserve he was.
“Fear not, loyal men and women of the King of Númenor, the rightful King of Men and of all lands east and west of here. The phantom that is being held before our eyes to keep us blind struck us with mighty fate, but he that is his master shall yet prevail, and he will deliver us from this phantom!”

Encouraged by such mighty and glorious and unsurpassed words, the survivors took heart. The land that was so large, but used to seem so narrow, now was narrow indeed, but, after all, it was still there. Considering what lay behind them, little worse could now happen anymore.

Or could it?


Note: Do not post on this thread before the game has started. For questions or anything else, go to the admin thread.

I will post the detailed rules soon.

[Macalaure]

Rules


The general stuff:

In a night phase of the game, the Were-Faithfuls may pm one another. They choose one player to kill, who is removed from the game at the end of the night phase.
In a day phase of the game, all villagers, including the Faithfuls, may talk to each other on the game thread. No pming except to me. The village must decide on which one of themselves to lynch at the end of the day. The lynched person is then removed from the game.
When a player is killed or lynched, their role will be revealed. He may no longer post or pm about the game until it is finished.
Every night phase and every day phase lasts 24 hours.
The innocents win if all Were-Faithfuls are dead, the Were-Faithfuls win if their number equals the number of non-Were-Faithfuls.


Lynchings:

Every player has one vote. It should look like this, be on a separate line and bolded:

++Macalaure

Every player may retract their vote once per day if they want to. This should look like this:

--Macalaure

If more than one player has the highest number of votes, the one who reached this number first will be lynched. There are no multiple lynchings.


Roles:

4 Were-Faithfuls decide per pm whom to kill each night and try to conceal their identities at day. They too must vote.
1 High Priest of Annatar (seer) will dream of one other villager each night and wake up knowing that villagers role.
1 Ranger may protect one of his fellow villagers from being killed by the Faithfuls at night. He may not protect the same villager twice in a row. A villager who has been protected successfully will know he has been saved, but not by whom or from whom.
1 Hunter pms me an ordered list which length is equal to the number of living Faithfuls. If the hunter is lynched/killed, then the Faithful who is highest on this list will die with him. If there is no Faithful on it, then, if the hunter is lynched, the innocent at the top of his list dies, if the hunter is killed, he dies alone.
Ranger and Hunter know each other’s identity. They may not pm with one another at day or night. They may not protect/hunt each other.
1 Tar-Míriel (cobbler) belongs to the innocents, but is in reality hoping for the Faithfuls to win. She does not know the Faithfuls’ identity and the Faithfuls don’t know hers. At the end of each day, Tar-Míriel will pm me a list of the villagers who she thinks are the Faithfuls. I will give this list to the real Faithfuls to brood over. Of course, the player who plays this role may be male, too.
13 Ordinary Villagers may talk and vote on days, like everyone else. They are quiet at night.


Various:

The deadline for days and nights is 9 PM GMT (real time counts, not faulty forum time)
All players shall be in invisible mode
A person who doesn’t vote for two consecutive days is removed from the game (the Mod may grant amnesty)
The game thread is only for the game and all the game takes place only in it. Other discussions (e.g. announcements or apologies for RL hindrances, questions of whatever type) belong into the admin thread.
You may edit your posts to correct faulty grammar/spelling, change bolding/italicising and mark cross-posting. You may not alter the content.


And don’t forget:
It’s only a game, so don’t be offensive;
It’s only a game, so don’t be offended.

[Macalaure]

Dark were the days beneath the black, towering clouds which covered the skies, disrupted only by cruel lightnings that smote the very earth. These were the hours when the remaining Faithfuls, who hid themselves from their hunters, gathered in the docks of Rómenna to leave Númenor for good. But in these moments, when faced with the decision to leave their beloved lands, a few wavered. One of them spoke up.

“My Lord Elendil, my heart does not endure to be parted from the land that is my home, regardless of what it has become, or what will be its end. Faithful I will be until Eru takes me to him, but I will not go away from this place that saw the birth of my forefathers and me.”

“I understand the longings of your heart,” answered Elendil “for mine longs for the same, but it accepted that the land I love as much as you do will never in any age again be like it was. I will give you leave readily, but know that little good will befall to you, should you stay.”

“I know too well what might be my fate here, and nothing I can think of soothes my fears, now even less, since even you my Lord do not know what is left to do in this wonderful place that has become so full of dreads.”

“One advice I might be able to give you: If you wish to remain in the land of our fathers, then seek out the Faithful that do not wish to part from Númenor, and let them join you in secret, if they are willing to go with you, and share in your design”

“And what shall that design be?”

“To remain unnoticed in the midst of the worshippers of Sauron, pretending to be one of their own kind; but during the night, to seek their homes and give the Gift of Eru to those who are so exerted to reject it. You shall be…

… Were-Faithfuls!”


Night one has begun. Faithfuls, start your plotting. Priest of Annatar, dream a little dream for me. Everybody else, see you tomorrow.

[Macalaure]

A list of the survivors of the near-drowning of Anadûne:

Brinniel
Durelin
Garin
Gil-Galad
Glirdan
the guy who be short
Holbytlass
Hookbill the Goomba
Kath
Kitanna
Lalaith
Legate of Amon Lanc
Mänwe
The Might
Mithalwen
Nogrod
Rikae
Roa_Aoife
Rune Son of Bjarne
The Saucepan Man
Thinlómien

[Macalaure]

Disturbed by the horrible event of seeing his land drown in the floods of the Sea, Macalaure found it difficult to find sleep in the night. His thoughts were wide awake and his heart would not find rest. Suddenly there were noises heard outside his makeshift hut. “The others seem to be just as restless as I am.” he thought. Then slowly the door opened and four shades were seen in the dim light. They closed the door and stood in a half circle around his bed.

“Who are you?” Macalaure asked.

“We have come to bring news, first to you and then to all others through you.”

“I do not know what you mean!”

“Well, what you do know is, I suppose, that all hearts in Númenor are not drawn to Sauron. There are yet four of us here to serve the One, and so we will do until the utter end.”

A disdainful laugh escaped the mouth of Macalaure. “There are yet some of you we have not wiped out? Very well. Before the end comes you shall see that only the service to Melkor confers true power. Melkor gives life, your Eru only death.”

“Well, that we shall see." said one, and the Faithfuls drew closer around Macalaure.

*~*

The next morning the surviving Númenoreans gathered upon the Hill of Meneltarma to debate their future. But they noticed that Macalaure was not among them, so they went to his hut to see for him.

There was nothing that could have prepared them for what they were about to see. They opened the door and there lay the dead body of proud Macalaure, sickly defaced. Quickly they rushed towards him.

“I do not think he died an easy death” said Lalaith, kneeling over him “There are seven deep cuts over his body, but they have been given the time to start to heal.”

“And seven of his bones are broken!” said Nogrod, appalled and disgusted.

“Let us have more light inside here.” said Durelin, and lighted a torch.

And in this moment they saw the writing on the wall on the other side of the room. Written in Tengwar letters and in the language of the High-Elves – and in the blood of the victim – it said:

“Seven scars and broken bones
and one dead Mac!”

There the hearts of the people of Westernesse were stricken with horror and many cries of pain were heard.

Alone Rune, Son of Bjarne, kept his courage:

“The Faithfuls have plotted against us. They strike first. The next blow shall be ours!”

*~*

The Dead:

Macalaure (mod) - brutally killed by Faithfuls in Night One


The Living:

Brinniel
Durelin
Garin
Gil-Galad
Glirdan
the guy who be short
Holbytlass
Hookbill the Goomba
Kath
Kitanna
Lalaith
Legate of Amon Lanc
Mänwe
The Might
Mithalwen
Nogrod
Rikae
Roa_Aoife
Rune Son of Bjarne
The Saucepan Man
Thinlómien


Day 1 begins. You finally may start posting now. Wolves, stop pming. I need the lists of the hunter and the cobbler before the end of the Day.

[Mithalwen]

Since I am here, I may as well post but obviously there isn't a lot to say However with such a big village I am sure there will be screeds to read when I get back.

This should be and interesting game - several new players, a few returners and a slightly unusual line up of roles. Given we don't want to force gifteds to out themselves to save their necks or to out those we think may be gifted in order to defend them, we should remember that that gifteds as well as wolves are liable to give out an "odd" vibe and that while in most villages only the wolves know about each other here the hunter and ranger know about each other. But if anyone has a watertight method for distinguishing gifted odd vibe from wolvish odd vibe please share!

We also have a cobbler.... I will try to resist the assumption that it is the Saucepanman (at least til he has posted).

[Kitanna]

I just popped in before locking myself away for an hour or two of studying. What I've seen so far has left me somewhat speechless. Most of what I would have said is general and has been stated by more than one other person.

One thing is something of Nogrod's:

Glirdy seems to be too detached for a villager. Just casually making himself present but in an alienated way. It sounds bad to be sure.

I haven't played with Glirdan in quite some time, but from what I remember his first post has never been one for substance, usually just some in character remark and then he's gone. I'm willing to overlook this first "alienated" post (as Nogrod puts it), but only if following posts have some substance and in some way benefit.

Well, I need to go for a while, but hopefully I will only be gone for a few hours.

[Thinlómien]

I think no one should start toDay what some started yesterday: trying to find clues from Roa's posts. It's just useless. She's cunning enough to make the posts misleading and as she had no real information, the analyser would be wasting his/her time.

Except if s/he was a faithful? I can't see anyone else having a motive to analyse Roa's posts. A faithful could use this to sway the discussion, confuse the village and to look helpful. This brings me back to my suspicions of TGWBS.

~*~

Durelin bugs me.

Originally Posted by Durelin

Way to go Rikae!! With just two dreams, you have nailed the Cobbler. Though there are still four wolves out there, we finally might have a lead on something.

I don't think anyone else than the faithfuls are delighted to have the seer not dreamed about even one wolf before she dies. I mean, her attitude seems too joyful... While it's a good thing that the cobbler's nailed, Durelin seems a bit overjoyed... maybe because she and her companions are in no danger of being dreamed about anymore?

She has said other things that make me wary too... For example, she, like TGWBS, tries to make conclusions from Roa's posts.

I didn't like her first Day1 vote. It was too hasty.

All in all, she agrees and rejoices far too much... (Though I was accused of being too calm and cheerful in last game - I was an ordo - so maybe I shouldn't be accusing anyone of that...)

However, her reminding about that Roa can still harm the village with her votes strikes me as non-faithfulish... but Roa's game was pretty lost at that phase, so maybe she was just playing tactics...

(And

I have one little quibble for Lommy...

Sorry Durelin! I obviously manged to mix it up, because while I wrote that I was thinking of Rikae, since you both votes Mänwe early... Silly me.)

Durelin fails to convince me of her innocence. She seems as suspicious as TGWBS, and she now tops my suspicion list in a shared first place with him.

~*~

I'm a bit worried about silent people. Slip-under-the-radar-wolves are some of the horriblest things I know. But rather than lynching them (we have a too big wolf percent for that kind of luxuries) I'd urge and blackmail () them to speak up. (Admittedly, that isn't always very effective.)

So: Brinniel, Hookbill, Gil, speak up! I know you all have some problems (need to read, computer porblems, parental problems), but please try.

[Hookbill the Goomba]

Kitanna, it probably has more to do with the fact that I am a coward and come from a long line of cowards, its amazing I'm here at all.

I am going to try my hand at these character studies...

The right honorable Saucepan Man
He's had long experience in the game and strikes me as a guy who 'knows his onions' so to speak. As always he seems to try and keep a balance between openly accusing someone on a hunch and being logical and calculated. I liked his used of the phrase "Lembas-eating, Valar-loving surrender monkeys"
He votes for Rikae understandably from his explanation. Roa then attacks him fiercely, most probably with a large stick of some kind. I am not sure what to make of this, though (mainly because I don't really 'get' the role of the cobbler).
All in all, his posts seem very comprehensive and thorough, but something seems to rung untrue throughout and I cannot put my finger on it. Perhaps he is too good for his own good? Maybe I am reading too much into it, but he seems to be looking here and there for answers which either suggests an unsure faithful or an innocent looking for the faithfuls. As I type, it is beginning to look like the latter to me, but I shall keep an eye open.

Also, Manwe still has something odd about him. He keeps drawing attention here and there and this strikes me as a tad odd. This may be a cover, some sort of subtle use of a human, sorry, faithful shield for the other faithfuls or something. Draw all the fire to himself I suppose while not trying to be too overt. This is, of course, saying an awful lot and going on only a hunch, but its something to think about at the least.
Right, my time is up, back soon... hopefully.

[Thinlómien]

Brinniel - She's way too silent to my taste. I understand she wants to do some research because she does not know our wwing styles, but still... She's very careful, she manages a consistency suspecting Hookbill and her votes are bandwagoning or safe. I can very easily see a newcomer wolf doing this.... (but on the other hand, I can see an innocent newcomer doing it too). I'll be watching her.

Durelin - see my last post.

Gil-Galad - I'm slightly annoyed by his playing style, but that's what happens always... I think he's pretty genuine, though it's very difficult to say since there's so little to go on. If he's a wolf he'll be really dangerous, I'm afarid, since he manages to slip under the radar...

the guy who be short - I think I've pretty much said what I think about him. His suggestions are wolvish and so is his carefulness.

Hookbill the Goomba - It's difficult to read him. I don't like the fact that he hides behind his claimed bad reading of people and his (relative) newbieshness and that he spends most of the time either emphasising these or defending himself. This behaviour doesn't make him suspicious per se, since I don't know if he's always like that; that might be his playing style. And he doesn't give very faithfulish feel or anything. I just have the feeling that though his name is continuously brought up, he still manages to slip under the radar.

Kath - She's as she's always. Relatively silent, but helpful and contributing. Innocent or guilty. You can never decipher. She feels innocent, but one should not trust gut-feeling too much. If she's a wolf, she can be nailed after we've lynched some/one of her companions. According to my experiences, that is almost the only way to catch a kathwolf. I will take a closer look at her after we've got a wolf, but for now I'm ready to consider her innocent-ish.

Kitanna - I'm not sure if I trust her. She seems reasonable, yes. On the first Day she was mainly only agreeing and parroting. That made me wary. YesterDay and toDay she's been a bit different. But there's still something about her that does not sit right with me. I guess it might have something to do with her calm, sly manner, and I always tend to suspect her, at least a bit. If I have time toDay, I will take a closer look at her.

Lalaith - Hmmm... I dislike her NogGod-suggestions (and think them suspicious) and there's something weird about her (like the Day1 retraction which Nogrod pointed out)... But somehow the feel of her doesn't strike me as particularly suspicious. I don't know.

Legate of Amon Lanc - First Day, I thought he was very reasonable, calm and innocent-looking. Now I'm not too sure. Like someone said, he's a bit too quick to agree. What's funny is that while Rune became less suspicious about him after the long post yesterDay, I became more so. Somehow, it just didn't sit right with me. Yet there is some innocentishness in him too... A tough one.

Mänwe - I'm inclined to think he's innocent. Like Rune said, he's being too weird and making far too much mess to be a wolf.

Mithalwen - Another tough one. She feels innocent, but less than the last time I played with her. She's concentarting on things an innocent wouldn't maybe concentrate on (like the Roa-SPM-Nogrod triangle on Day1), but her consistence in demanding to lynch someone else than Roa (which I could very well understand) speaks for her innocence.

Nogrod - Known innocent.

Rune Son of Bjarne - I always tend to sympathise with him, and I don't know why. But in this game my initial feeling towards him has been less sympathic. Is my subconscious right? Is there something wrong with Rune? Might be. His Legate-case and his votes have been quite worriesome... But on the other hand, he has been very reasonable at times, and innocently reasonable, if you ask me.

The Saucepan Man - How much ever you others have debated about him, he has managed to slip under my radar. I have not formed a proper picture of him yet. I can't see anything that especially speaks for his innocence, nor anything that speaks for his guilt. He's reasonable and has good points, but that's what he does as a wolf as well.

Thinlómien - Obviously innocent.

~*~

While writing this, I realised my opinions about most people were "I don't know" or "a tough one" or "could be evil or good"... Well, at least I learned I need more reread and more thinking. But it troubles me that I can't get a proper grasp on people.

EDIT: xed with Hookbill and TGWBS... avoided triple posting

[Thinlómien]

TGWBS's obvious grumpiness about people deciding to lynch Roa instead of trying to get a wolf slightly lessens my suspicions of him...

[the guy who be short]

Well, here I am 1 and a bit hours earlier than I should be awake, because I'm not sure I can get onto this thread the rest of the day. Looks like an early vote from me, I'm afraid. And if I'm snappy, it's because of only 7 hours sleep, which is definitely not enough for one my age.

First, replies:

Originally Posted by nogrod

I do disagree with you on this somewhat. If we already have a terrifying number of those who can influence the vote why give them one more? And no one says we would have gotten a Faithful yesterDay anyhow, on the contrary the basic odds were against us. And it was not illogical, that was the beauty of Roa's game yesterDay: it was a perfectly possible scenario.

But let's not make an issue out of this as I do believe this breaks the lines of us innocents already...

I must make this an issue. So far, the wolves have killed nobody out of choice. Thus, voting records and past actions are the only things we have to analyse. All of yesterday was taken up with Roa, and so we have to look into people's reactions to her.

About Roa's vote: 1) She does not know who the wolves are, and so cannot help them much.
2) She would not vote for somebody she sincerely believed to be innocent (as a cobbler should) because then we would know who she thought was innocent.
3) She would not double-bluff and vote for a Faithful, because that would be dangerous for the faithful.
She would therefore be in a voting predicament, and her vote would be meaningless.

The odds were against us for getting a Faithful yesterday: they were 4/16, counting Nogrod and Rikae as known innocents. However, by voting Roa, some villagers decided it was better to have a 0 chance of getting a Faithful than a 25% chance. And of course, the sooner we get one Faithful, the sooner we can find the rest.

On the contrary, Roa's argument was illogical. If Rikae were a wolf pretending to be a Seer, the most sensible course of action would be to pretend two people were known innocents, thus gaining their trust. Why pretend to have dreamt of a cobbler? To cripple Roa? Why? Because she just happened to have accused one of them? Also, Rikae had been attacked the night before. We had only her word for this, but the chance of her lying was tiny, for that would mean the wolves had gone after somebody else AND the ranger had successfully protected this person. In addition, nobody attacked Rikae, claiming she could have been a wolf pretending to be the seer, on day 1 or early day 2. A real seer would at least have suggested this to try to throw suspicion on somebody who they would, in that scenario, be certain of being a wolf. It just didn't add up.

I've made the argument enough times. If people can't see what's in the best interests of the village, they are either misguided or Faithful.

Originally Posted by durelin

We'd be so bogged down we wouldn't know what to think. Regardless of what people said about ignoring her, I don't think anyone actually did.

I did, until the rest of the village decided to start entertaining the possibility that Roa might be telling the truth.

Originally Posted by Kath

TGWBS suggests a shortlist. This early on I'm not sure I agree.

No, he doesn't.

Originally Posted by TGWBS, post302

I advised a shortlist. However, we need more known innocents for a shortlist to be mathematically plausible and not manipulated by the Faithful.

Now that that's out the way, I can get to my analysis of Lommy.

[Hookbill the Goomba]

To tell you the truth, Manwe, it was because I had little to go on, really. It was either you or the Saucepan Man last time and I just had an inkling more towards yourself than the Pan man. Call me crazy but... well... you'd be right.

Hookbill, because I don't like the fact his computer is down.

I don't like that fact either.
But I have my new computer now, so everything is goods. *Dances*

I must come clean, though, on the first day I was just a tad lazy to really read through the post properly and assumed that things would iron out eventually. Losing my computer privileges for a few days got me reading them a bit more closely because I had to even though my time was scarce.

Brinniel's lynching really confused me. I read the arguments for her lynching and couldn't fathom it. I should take a look at those who voted Brinniel and look for suspicious... things...

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by Manwe

Seeing as no-one else spotted the mistake yesterday. Those two posts [227, 235] you point out were me in fact me advocating strongly for the death of Roa. I was trying to get across to you that your reservations for voting Roa were incorrect, that killing Roa was the best option. Others have also stated that this was the best option.

You're mixing up the two issues. Though I regard voting for Roa as a Faithful thing to do, others find it sensible. This issue divides innocents, as Nogrod and Rikae showed.

You, however, thought it was sensible to kill Roa not because you wanted to be rid of the cobbler, but because you entertained the notion that she might not be the cobbler. This doubt of Rikae looks very faithful to me, especially the way you tried to make it look widespread in post 203 when it wasn't:

Originally Posted by Manwe, post203

I would also like to add, that Roa seems to have lost her 'cool' after the accusation. Seems rather desperate; now we have Rikae a possible Seer (possible in the eyes of Roa and a few others) revealing her as the cobbler.

Post 227 and 235 are devoted to doubting Rikae's claim to be the Seer:

Originally Posted by Manwe, post 227

People, what Rikae says is why I wrote my second 'plus' for killing Roa, if we kill Roa and she is innocent we know that Rikae is lying without doubt. Rikae telling us Roa is the Cobbler is a perfect chance to sort the mess out of, is she (Roa) a Cobbler, and is she (Rikae) the Seer.

Originally Posted by Manwe, post 235

Killing Roa and finding out what she is would prove without doubt whether Rikae is the Seer or not. It's a win win situation in a way, for if Rikae is not a Seer than we can kill her, with a certain knowledge she is either the actual Cobbler or Faithful thats if she does not die tonight.

Please do not try to confuse the two issues of voting for Roa, and believing Roa's claim that Rikae was not the Seer. The two are very different, and your willingness to muddle them to make my accusations look unsound only further cement my belief in your guilt.

I also note the knee-jerk reaction.

You seem intent on having me lynched.

All too true.




On a non-Manwe note, the Faithfuls' killing of Rune has confused me. Why kill the person who gained the second-most votes, who could most likely be lynched today?

One theory is that there are a few wolves among the Brinniel voters who feared suspicion and so killed Rune, thereby showing that most of the rest of the village had also voted for an innocent yesterday. This would incriminate Lalaith, Legate, Lommy and Mith. But the more I think about it, the less this kill makes sense.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

On a non-Manwe note, the Faithfuls' killing of Rune has confused me. Why kill the person who gained the second-most votes, who could most likely be lynched today?

One theory is that there are a few wolves among the Brinniel voters who feared suspicion and so killed Rune, thereby showing that most of the rest of the village had also voted for an innocent yesterday. This would incriminate Lalaith, Legate, Lommy and Mith. But the more I think about it, the less this kill makes sense.

I'm still a bit at loss with your logic tgwbs. It's just hard to say whether we think this differently (and naturally thinking the other one does it really bad) or are you a Faithful who deliberately tries to make others think weirdly...

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by Me, post386

What I notice here is the huge amount of no-ideas. Durelin, Hookbill, Kitanna, Lalaith, Legate. That's far too many people I haven't paid enough attention to.

Let's form some opinions.

There are now too many posts for me to consider going over everything each of these people has said. I shall try to lessen my load somewhat by starting from Day 2. Day 1 is always a stab in the dark anyway.

Durelin

Post 141 - yay-ranger post.

Post 150 - nothing

Post 156 - mildly suspicious of Hookbill, based on Roa's reasoning (pre-knowing she was a cobbler).

Post 216 - Yay Rikae post. Believes firmly in Rikae, which is a good sign I feel. Mild suspicion of Hookbill, Brinniel and Lommy.

Post 228 - Says Roa still has a vote, so she can still do harm. Again, firmly believes in Rikae.

Post 262 - Says not voting for Roa means we might lynch somebody else randomly. Defends Legate for the second time. Accuses Brinniel and Kath.

Post 268 - Votes Roa.

Post 278 - Nothing.

Post 282 - Nothing much.

Post 308 - Accuses mith.

Post 314 - Dear me. A long analysis of everybody. Let's see:
Neutral about Brinniel.
Neutral about Gil.
Thinks I'm innocent.
Neutral about Hookbill.
Suspects Kath.
Defends Kitanna.
Neutral about Lalaith.
Neutral about Legate.
Neutral/ slightly suspicious of Manwe.
Suspects Mith.
Neutral about SpM.
Suspects Lommy.
Suspects Rune.

Post 316 - Nothing.

Post 331 - Defends herself against Lommy's accusations.

Post 364 - Suspects Rune and Lalaith.

Post 389 - votes for Rune. Mild suspicion of Hookbill, Gil. Slight defense of Lommy over her Glirdan slip.

Post 396 - Wants to know how her playing style has changed, according to people.

Post 404 - Defends her vote for Rune.

Post 415 - Nothing.



Well... that took FAR longer than I expected. I don't think I can manage even this undetailed analysis for all five. Nogrod, will you have time to do a few? Hookbill and Kitanna in particular have seemed to escape widespread attention.

It's hard to come to a conclusion on durelin. I don't know her playing style, so I don't see how it's changed. I find nothing to jump on, nothing that seems to shout Faithful. She does, however, seem to post quite often to say nothing much.

I don't really agree with a lot of her reasoning - her attacking Rune, wanting to lynch Roa, etc. But these aren't indicators of Faithfulness, but a difference of style, technique and belief.

I still find her quite neutral. That was a worthwhile analysis.

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by nogrod

Now this makes me scan to the PanMan again. Maybe this is yet another Valarish plan of the Faithfuls, but I still think that if SPaMman is innocent - and as the Faithfuls knew I would be protected - why did they kill Rune instead of him?

Thus far I have believed SpM to be innocent, but his continued life makes me doubt him a little.

The problem is that this always happens when SpM lives late into a game. People think that he must be a wolf, because otherwise the wolves would see him as a threat and kill him off.
However, the wolves know people will think this, so they may leave him alive in order to let him garner votes.
Or perhaps they leave him because they know that he is influential, but his suspicions are all wrong and so misleading the village.

I think it's impossible to decide.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'm still a bit at loss with your logic tgwbs. It's just hard to say whether we think this differently (and naturally thinking the other one does it really bad) or are you a Faithful who deliberately tries to make others think weirdly...

I do have a very unique brand of logic, being a mathematician. However, that idea was just me trying to attach meaning to Rune's murder. I can't figure out why they chose him, and this annoys me a lot because this is the first person the Faithful have killed out of choice.

Originally Posted by Lommy

And TGWBS, I think you manage to point out how weird/contradictory Mänwe is...

I have neither said that he has been weird nor that he has been contradictory. I've said I don't like the way he tried to spread the unease and doubt around Rikae.

Goodnight.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Now this makes me scan to the PanMan again. Maybe this is yet another Valarish plan of the Faithfuls, but I still think that if SPaMman is innocent - and as the Faithfuls knew I would be protected - why did they kill Rune instead of him?

Originally Posted by TGWBS

Thus far I have believed SpM to be innocent, but his continued life makes me doubt him a little.

Ah, here we go. The point that plagues me every game where I last more than a few Days ...

I don't know why I haven't been killed. Then again, I don't know why Mithalwen hasn't been killed. Or Lalaith. Or many others still here. I suspect, however, that being one of the chief suspects of the only known innocent and nearly being lynched in place of the Cobbler two Days ago might have something to do with it ...

As for the reason behind Rune's death, I think that Nogrod has probably put his finger on it. His final two words most likely sealed his fate, suggesting as they did his innocence. Although it will be worth looking at those he suspected and those who voted for him to see whether there may have been other motives.

I am afraid, however, that it is getting late here. Still early-ish, by my normal standards, I suppose, but I am tired. I leave you with the Day 3 voting record and will take a closer look at it when I return tomorrow.

Brinniel: ++Rune (Rune 1)
TGWBS: ++Brinniel (Rune 1, Brinniel 1)
Kitanna: ++Hookbill (Rune 1, Brinniel 1, Hookbill 1)
TGWBS: --Brinniel, ++Manwe (Rune 1, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1)
Kath: ++Rune (Rune 2, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1)
Rune: ++Brinniel (Rune 2, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1, Brinniel 1)
SpM: ++Lommy (Rune 2, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1, Brinniel 1, Lommy 1)
Mithalwen: ++Lalaith (Rune 2, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1, Brinniel 1, Lommy 1, Lalaith 1)
Durelin: ++Rune (Rune 3, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1, Brinniel 1, Lommy 1, Lalaith 1)
Lalaith: ++Brinniel (Rune 3, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1, Brinniel 2, Lommy 1, Lalaith 1)
Lommy: ++Brinniel (Rune 3, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1, Brinniel 3, Lommy 1, Lalaith 1)
Legate: ++Brinniel (Rune 3, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1, Brinniel 4, Lommy 1, Lalaith 1)
Mithalwen: --Lalaith, ++Brinniel (Rune 3, Hookbill 1, Manwe 1, Brinniel 5, Lommy 1)
Hookbill: ++Manwe (Rune 3, Hookbill 1, Manwe 2, Brinniel 5, Lommy 1)
SpM: --Lommy, ++Rune (Rune 4, Hookbill 1, Manwe 2, Brinniel 5)
Nogrod: ++Manwe (Rune 4, Hookbill 1, Manwe 3, Brinniel 5)
Nogrod: --Manwe, ++Rune (Rune 5, Hookbill 1, Manwe 2, Brinniel 5)

Did not vote: Gil-Galad, Manwe

[Nogrod]

Oh Rune, you silly, silly sod!
(Sorry about my vote. I tried to save Brinniel who looked clearly innocent whilst of you I had no clear opinion... sadly I learned it only after your misguided comment that cost you your life.)

I feared this after your last post and that was the way it went. You declared yourself innocent at the last moment yesterDay with it and those dratted Faithfuls were witty enough to read it...

Now this makes me scan to the PanMan again. Maybe this is yet another Valarish plan of the Faithfuls, but I still think that if SPaMman is innocent - and as the Faithfuls knew I would be protected - why did they kill Rune instead of him?

I agree with you Hookbill in here. The lynching of Brinniel was folly. I tried to say that we leave the newbies in the first place and secondly tried to say that Brinniel looks too innocent to be lynched. I was late, I know, but darn this sharing of the computer when one has not time to actually delve in and live the last moments with full effort...

But we have a new Day and only a Cobbler has been catched and even that cost us our Seer's life. Let's now pull ourselves together!

It's 9/4 now.

We make a misjudgement toDay and it will be evidently 7/4 tomorrow (as I'm dead then). Another mistake makes it 5/4 the next Day... and thence a mistake by one of us nails it.

And even if this looks like we have a couple of Days to play the reality is a bit gloomier. With their votes the Faithfuls can steer the lynchings towards their ways as they know where to steer them unlike us. Even toDay only half of us innocents differing in our opinions will give the Faithfuls a free reign over the lynching of yet another innocent if they so wish. And why not in this phase of the game?

So we need to be very sharp now.

So Brinniel voters should be seen first. If there are people who seem to have not suspected her so much before and just voted for her late yesterDay. I would say that would shout a Faithful (jumping on a popular wagon with an innocent). The same goes with Rune-voters in a bit lesser degree.

Time to give the computer to Lommy (1.10 AM here), but I'll be back...

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Now this makes me scan to the PanMan again. Maybe this is yet another Valarish plan of the Faithfuls, but I still think that if SPaMman is innocent - and as the Faithfuls knew I would be protected - why did they kill Rune instead of him?

Nogrod, could you elaborate? I did not catch you rpoint, I'm afrais. Why does "this" make you scan SPM again? And why do you wonder why Rune was killed instead of him? Because Sauce is a great benefit for the village when innocent?

And TGWBS, I think you manage to point out how weird/contradictory Mänwe is, but if I had to judge his behaviour (like one usually must while playing ww) I think he looks more like a confused innocent than like a faithful.

[Thinlómien]

Day1
#25 Speaks about the roles and the quantities, "Everyone who's discussing how the wolves are/will behave is out of their minds. It's Day 1. The wolves don't have to do anything but sit back and let everyone get confused, bogged down by theories and plans." Says she agrees with Sauce and Nogrod, but doesn't elaborate about what. Calls the SPM-Mänwe interaction interesting. Finds Mith's comment about gifteds strange. Is irked by Glirdy's post. Comments on a remark by Garin. Promises a vote for us to chew soon.
#29 Agrees with Rune about Mänwe acting weirdly in his few latest posts. Says Mänwe's talking the ultimate Day1 in-character nonsense. Says she has nothing else to go on and votes him. Says she'll be back to reconsider the vote.
#84 Doesn't like the idea of lynching Nog or SPM simply because they'd be dangerous as faithfuls. Mänwe doesn't sit right with her, but she thinks a faithful would maybe be more honey-tongued. Says Rikae's vote for Mänwe wasn't suspicious per se, but that it was so close after her own Mänwe-vote makes it odd. Apologises to Garin and finds him "pretty darn odd looking".
#107 I suspicious of Rikae and Garin, but not probably enough to switch from Mänwe. Agrees with Mith about Roa being very loud and wanting to lynch SPM. Answers to TGWBS why was she worried about Glirdy not saying much, but not about Kath. Thinks Hookbill has a good point about Mänwe and says that makes her think he's the cobbler. Does not like Mänwe's comment that he wants Nog lynched. Agrees with Nogrod that in werewolf people always tend to go after the easy targets. Asks if Nogrod has any new thoughts (since he suggested the "possibility of looking things anew").
#110 Right after Rikae revealing: "Oh lord, I knew this was going to be off to a bad start..." and a switch form Mänwe to Garin.
#125 "Wow, there were a lot more people around then I thought. I guess I jumped the gun thinking voting Garin was my only option. Argh."

Comments: Well, she spends a lot of time agreeing with this and that. Her first vote is weird. I mean, she promises to vote soon though she's sure she can come back. Then she votes someone who (it seems) she wasn't really very suspicious of ("there's nothing better to go on"). Why do this? Why just not vote? Because she's a wolf who wants to ensure she's voted early and no one can blame her since that was a reasonable vote at that phase, but later she'd need to make a more reasoned vote? Also, I can't understand that last comment of hers. During the day, she expressed suspicion of three people: Mänwe, Rikae and Garin. She had voted Mänwe previously and had switched to Garin. She knew Rikae was the seer. What's the lost possibility she was after? I don't understand. She seems suspicious.

Day2
#141 Cheers the ranger, says she's now a bit more hopeful. Wonders how Rikae can be sure that the ranger protected her. "Why would the wolves choose to risk wasting a nice kill? Is it simply stupidity, or were they that desperate to kill Rikae for some reason?" Agrees with Rikae about Rikae-voters (she said that looking her voters isn't probably very useful). says she'll have a look at Garin-voters and those who did not join bandwagons. States that wolves have no need to join a bandwagon on Day1. Says to Mänwe Roa's analysis are helpful. Says she had neither a case against Mänwe the Day before nor lots of things to back her suspicion.
#150 Says she missed the protectee-will-be-told -rule.
#156 A sarcastic remark about Gil's behaviour. Thanks Roa for the analysises, says the one about Hookbill is the most interesting one, implies that she'll be watching him. Repeats that the Garin-voters should be looked at.
#216 Is cheerful of Rikae's success. Says she has no reason to doubt Rikae and that Roa should be ignored. Wonders about Roa expressing faith in Legate, but doesn't reach any conclusion. Talks about the cobbler. Corrects my vote summary. Says that I, Brinn and Hook have " bit of a forced, edgy sort of feel to their posts - - , but I definitely do not suggest they are all three wolves or even two of them are, though it's possible." Thinks Brinn's vote for Legate was a safe one, does not know what to think of him.
#228 Says Rikae has a good point when she says Roa should be left alive, but says that Roa can do a lot of harm while alive by for example voting. Replies to Roa.
#262 "I do hope we're not overthinking this, and will trap ourselves in that. I also hope that 'wasting a lynch' on Roa doesn't mean we will waste a lynch on a different person who seems simply a good alternative." Says that the village has spent a lot of time discussing Rikae and Roa and that if Roa is not lynched, the lynch target will be far too random. Does a little vote summary. "If Roa is indeed the cobbler, which I will assume for now, I think more consideration regarding SPM's guilt can wait". Says Roa's support makes Legate an easy target, says again that she has no idea of him. Agrees with TGWBS that we should look at those Roa didn't mention. Is concerned about Brinn and Kath and their quietness.
#268 "Everyone's right about people "dropping like flies," and I really don't want us to end up stuck with a Cobbler and x number of wolves, with the few innocents left carried along with the tide." Says cobblers are nassty to have around, votes Roa. Says she can change if a better suggestion emerges.
#278 Agrees with Nogrod about "clarity". "Mith - Why are you so concerned about saving Roa, but at the same time you make it seem like you feel SPM really is a shot in the dark?"
#282 Says we're far from lost yet.

Conclusions: By no way as suspicious as her Day1. Actually she'd seem pretty innocent had she not made that weird comment about SPM ("If Roa is indeed the cobbler, which I will assume for now, I think more consideration regarding SPM's guilt can wait") and had she not been that eager to join TGWBS's campaing to search for clues from Roa's posts, and even in an over-simplistic logic.

Day3
#308 "Regardless of our odds, we have rid ourselves of a Cobbler. The wolves are ally-less, and we have two Gifteds still safe...as long as we don't try and lynch them." Says that (mathemathically speaking) there must be at least one wolf in those who wanted to keep Roa alive, implies that Roa was a good lynch target, defends this view against TGWBS. Suspects Mith is an acting bold wolf, since she was so over-dramatic.
#314 "I don't know what a wolf Mith would try to do, but it doesn't sit right with me." Sums up her feelings about people: Brinn - no clear opinion, Gil - totally uninvolved, TGWBS - has points for and against his wolvishness, Hookbill - thinks he's amiable and his style's setting people off, Kath - sneaky, Kitanna - sneakier than Kath, but innocent-looking, Lalaith - confusing, Legate - amiable and helpful -> pretending?, Mänwe - confusing, Sauce - normal expect less involved, Lommy - too silent and edgy. Suspects Rune because he had a "way better feel" about Legate and still voted him and because his Roa-comments and notes that Rune has gone amost unnoticed. Does not understand the save Roa -campaign.
#316 Jokes to SPM.
#331 Defends her cheerfulness about Rikae having dreamt by the cobbler. says that her vote for Mänwe on Day1 was she trying to see if people would wake up a bit.
#364 Asks Mith for reasons to her suspects, wants to know what she thinks of Brinn. Names Rune and Lalaith her top suspects. "She [Lalaith]'s been nice and cautious, and makes it seem like she expresses her own opinions, though her opinions are nicely placed after someone else has already expressed similar ones, as if she's helping guilt along." Asks Lal a question.
#389 Replies Lalaith. Notes about silent people (Mänwe, Hookbill, Gil). Does not understand the concern over my mistake. Votes Rune.
#396 Asks Nogrod how has her playing style changed (since Nog said so).
#404 Says Rune's not a last-minute lynch and that not many people seem to suspect him.
#415 "Are we ever going to cease making this difficult for our poor Modalaure?"

Comments: Not that suspicious either. I think a wolf would have only been happy to jump at my mistake, and that kind of makes me less wary of her. Her explanation of her day1 vote is reasonable... but in a slightly wolvish way. It's so easy to say that afterwards. I don't like her comment about wolves being ally-less... In my opinion a cobbler isn't that big loss to the wolves, especially not when there's four of them and they're all still alive. The phrasing of that comment just bugs me.

Final comments
There's not as much reason- or sense-based reasons to suspect her as I thought there was. (But there's still plenty of them , especially in her Day1 -behaviour.) But, my gut-feeling of her being a faithful has become even stronger. There's something in her manner that really doesn't sit right with me.

EDIT: xed

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by SPaMman

Ah, here we go. The point that plagues me every game where I last more than a few Days ...

Now now... Have we seen an act looking more Faithfulish than this? Look at the bolding and make your deductions...

Darn shared computer and most of all the timetables - and clock anyway! I try to look at some things briefly now. I will be back later, although in the middle of RL rush. Still I try to find some time to sit down for at least one good while. It's so frustrating to have one's last Day alive in the middle of gazillions of hindrances...

[Thinlómien]

Please correct if I'm wrong somewhere, I might have missed something.....

Kath
TGWBS is worried by her silence on Day1.
Kath didn't suspect him on Day1.
TGWBS didn't suspect her on Day2.
Kath didn't suspect him on Day2.
TGWBS found her slightly suspicious on Day3.
Kath wasn't sure what to think of him on Day3.
TGWBS didn't have an opinion about her on Day4.
Kath was (very) slightly suspicious of him on Day4.
Could be in some sinister union based on this. I can well imagine wolves behaving this way towards each other.

SPM
TGWBS thought him innocent on Day1.
Sauce didn't suspect him on Day1.
TGWBS thought him innocent on Day2
Sauce didn't suspect him on Day2.
TGWBS was inclined to think him innocent on Day3.
Sauce was concerned about him on Day3.
TGWBS suspected him slightly, but was inclined to think him innocent on Day4.
Sauce had some suspicion of him on Day4.
Now this looks quite bad. Why was TGWBS so inclined to trust him? The mutual "friendship" on days 1 and 2 and Sauce distancing himself from him after he became generally suspected look quite faithfulish.

Mith
TGWBS suspected her on Day1.
Mith didn't suspect him on Day1.
TGWBS didn't suspect her much on Day2.
Mith didn't suspect him on Day2.
TGWBS trusted her on Day3.
Mith was inclined to trust him on Day3.
TGWBS was inclined to think her innocent on Day4.
Mith thought him innocent on Day4.
Here we see a mutual trust. I'm not sure what to make of it. I don't like TGWBS's suspicion slowly turning to trust (looks a bit planned), but on the other hand, I wonder if faithfuls would form an alliance like this at this phase of the game...

Gil
TGWBS didn't suspect him on Day1.
Gil had a hunch about TGWBs being a faithful on Day1.
TGWBS didn't suspect him on Day2.
Gil didn't suspect him on Day2.
TGWBS didn't want him to fly under the radar on Day3.
Gil suspected him on Day3.
TGWBS thought him dangerous and faithful-ish and voted him on Day4.
Gil suspected and voted him on Day4.
I'm ready to exonerate Gil for this. In my opinion that continuous suspicion and the votes casted for each other clearly tell these two were in no union.

Lommy
TGWBS didn't suspect her on Day1.
Lommy didn't suspect him on Day1.
TGWBS suspected (and disagreed with her) on Day2.
Lommy disagreed with him, suspected him strongly and voted him on Day2.
TGWBS found her slightly suspicious on Day3.
Lommy suspected him on Day3.
TGWBS suspected her slightly on Day4.
Lommy suspected him (though slightly less than before) on Day4.
Well obviously I can't comment on this.

Durelin
TGWBS questioned her on Day1.
Durelin didn't suspect him on Day1.
TGWBS didn't suspect her on Day2.
Durelin didn't suspect him on Day2.
TGWBS had no idea/found her neutral about her on Day3.
Durelin found and yet didn't find him suspicious the same time on Day3.
TGWBS didn't have an opinion about her on Day4.
Durelin found him unnerving on Day4.
Now this could be either way. Wolves could very well be like this towards each other, but so could a wolf and an innocent. Doesn't tell much.

Hookbill
TGWBS didn't suspect him on Day1.
Hookbill didn't suspect him on Day1.
TGWBS didn't suspect him on Day2. Hookbill didn't suspect him on Day2.
TGWBS had no idea about him on Day3.
Hookbill didn't suspect him on Day3.
TGWBS didn't find him very suspicious on Day4.
Hookbill didn't suspect him on Day4.
These could be fellow wolves very well indeed. I'm not sure if Hookbill ever even mentioned TGWBS in his posts...

Lalaith
TGWBS didn't suspect her on Day1.
Lalaith didn't suspect him on Day1.
TGWBS was inclined to think her innocent on Day2.
Lalaith didn't suspect him on Day2.
TGWBS had no idea about her on Day3.
Lalaith was slightly suspicious of him and wasn't sure what to think of him on Day3.
TGWBS suspected her quite strongly on Day4.
Lalaith was uneasy about him and voted him (though retracted) on Day4.
The funny thing here is that they trust, are unsure and suspect each other the same days... Not sure what to make of it.

Legate
TGWBS didn't suspect him on Day1.
Legate didn't suspect him on Day1.
TGWBS didn't suspect him on Day2.
Legate didn't suspect him on Day2.
TGWBS had no idea about him on Day3.
Legate thinks he seems "okay" on Day3.
TGWBS is uneasy about him on Day4.
Legate didn't suspect him on Day4.
Looks quite sinister. They avoided taking a stance towards each other. Possibly fellows...

Kitanna
TGWBS didn't suspect her on Day1.
Kitanna didn't suspect him on Day1.
TGWBS didn't suspect her on Day2.
Kitanna didn't suspect him on Day2.
TGWBS had no idea about her on Day3.
Kitanna didn't suspect him on Day3.
TGWBS was leaning to think her innocent on Day4.
Kitanna didn't suspect him on Day4.
Could be sinister, could be not. Difficult to say.

Needless to say, I'm quite disappointed with the whole thing. I didn't find very much out by wasting some time on this. I became more assured about SPM's guilt and Gil's innocence. But that's it, basicly.

I have to go and vote soon (should I stop wwing 'til I have a net access since this irritates me so?) and I don't see myself voting anyone else than SPM who ought to be dead already.

[Thinlómien]

Mith certainly said she thinks TGWBS innocent yet SPM writes:

She [Mith] has remained neutral about him [TGWBS], saying little one way or the other.

A wolf covering a fellow? Or a wolf trying to confuse the villagers? Or a wolf trying to drag an innocent to the grave with him? Or a wolf who tried to make an honest analysis, but made a mistake?

[Thinlómien]

++THE SAUCEPAN MAN

For reasons previously stated.

I'll be back toMorrow, if I'm still alive.

[The Saucepan Man]

Lommy, I am reasonably confident in your innocence but, if you are, then your faulty reasoning is highly dangerous. Of course, if you are not, then getting me lynched would be rather convenient for you after the events of yesterDay.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Any innocent person would seriously reconsider before posting this or the other similar remarks SPM has made about me and Lalaith. An innocent wouldn't maybe find that suspicious, or dare to point that out. Because there are still two gifteds in the game and it's a fact that they know each others' identity.

I am not the only one to have pointed out such connections. Our known innocent did so too. To my mind, your mutual defences of each other seemed, and still seem, far too obvious for you to be Gifteds (and I now think them far too obvious for you to be fellow Faithfuls). In any event, any Faithful worth their salt would have picked up on it, so I saw no harm in noting it, as something which might be significant.

Originally Posted by Lommy

The whole game SPM has been making things look more sinister than they are and twisting words. Remember what he said about Nogrod and Roa on Day1. Besides I have the impression that people have to correct his statements about their opinions all the time.

Perhaps you would point out where I have done this. My suspicions of Nogrod and Roa were on Day 1, for goodness sake, and I would note that I was right to be concerned about Roa. Other than Manwe, I think that I was the only one to be wary of her. And the only villagers who have sought to correct my statements, as far as I can recall, are Lalaith and Kath. As I think I have shown, it is they who have been either mistaking or misrepresenting my opinions.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I don't like SPM's continuous "the wolves might be flying under the radar" -claim. While this might be true, it's a very good means of getting attention from vocal players, mainly himself.

Actually, my attention has largely been focussed on the more vocal players throughout. YesterDay, I noted in response to Nogrod that it would probably be too risky to start going after the quiet ones. However, I would not be at all surprised if there turned out to be at least one quiet Faithful. Failing to keep that at the back of one’s mind could be fatal, even if we focus on the louder ones first.

And, speaking of the loud ones, I think that you are wrong to lessen your suspicions of Durelin.

++DURELIN

Not sure whether I’ll be around much more toDay, but I hope to be here at the end.

Btw, Lommy, I did not see where Mith said that she thought TGWBS innocent but, from what she has said toDay, it looks like you’re right. It does not, however, really change my opinion of her.

[Gil-Galad]

COngrats SPm, you have brought me upon your bandwagon...

++Durelin

my reasons were stated before