The Great Eye In Dol Guldur?

[Sardy]

This thread: http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthr...997#post508997 got me thinking about an intriguing scenario...

What if the White Council had not driven Sauron from Dol Guldur? How would the trilogy be changed? How would the Fellowship's mission be affected? Gandalf mentions in Unfinished Tales that Sauron would most likely have attacked the North first... how would this have changed the unfolding story?

One thing that occurs to me right off is that Mt. Doom would be much more accessible, and thus the Ring easier to destroy...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Interesting question and first, I have to say that I'd like very much to explore this possibility. But, I have to swiftly (and unfortunately, for this idea of yours, which I like nevertheless) add the facts which make the answer quite clear.

I'll try to sum it up clearly. The main thing is, unfortunately, that the story will not end well. The fate of Middle-earth is quite dark in this case.

Originally Posted by Sardy

How would the trilogy be changed? How would the Fellowship's mission be affected?

My answer is: no trilogy, and no Fellowship (and no mission).

Now I'd better show why. So, here we go:

1. Sauron remains in Dol Guldur. However, by that time he has already sent all the Ringwraith to reoccupy Mordor (around the year 2000. The attack on Dol Guldur happened in 2851). And even if he did not until this time, he certainly would later. He wanted Mordor. He just didn't want to be too obvious. But when prepared, he'd return to his lands. Thus,

Originally Posted by Sardy

One thing that occurs to me right off is that Mt. Doom would be much more accessible, and thus the Ring easier to destroy...

certainly does not come to possibility.

2. Even if Mordor itself were not guarded. We know that Sauron wanted (or at least Gandalf think so, and quite logically) to attack Rivendell and Lórien. I'll include a larger part from the Unfinished tales to make it completely clear:

I thought then, and I am sure now, that he wanted to attack Lórien and Rivendell, as soon as he was strong enough was his original plan. It would have been a much better plan for him, and much worse for us.
You may think that Rivendell was out of his reach, but I did not think so. The state of things in the North was very bad. The Kingdom under the Mountain and the strong Men of Dale were no more. To resist any force that Sauron might send to regain the northern passes in the mountains and the old lands of Angmar there were only the Dwarves of the Iron Hills, and behind them lay a desolation and a Dragon. The Dragon Sauron might use with terrible effect.
Often I said to myself: "I must find some means of dealing with Smaug. But a direct stroke against Dol Guldur is needed still more. We must disturb Sauron's plans. I must make the Council see that.'
(...)
Resistance still had somewhere where it could take counsel free from the Shadow. How could the Ringbearer have escaped, if there had been no Lórien or Rivendell? And those places might have fallen, I think, if Sauron had thrown all his power against them first.

So, here you have it. I think no further explanation is needed. If Sauron wasn't kicked from Dol Guldur, he'd attack the Northerners, then Lórien, Rivendell... and even if Bilbo could have returned back to the Shire (and Bolg's army under the Mountain wouldn't be boosted with a few creatures from Dol Guldur), he'd surely see the Ringwraith in the Shire himself many years sooner than Frodo did. And followed by a horde of Orcs.

[mhagain]

I'm in agreement with Legate.

Even assuming that the sole difference was Sauron's continued presence in Dol Guldur, and that everything else (up to a point) was identical to the book (just for fun), there is no way the Fellowship would have gone near Lorien after the escape from Moria.

Mount Doom may have been more accessible (if Mordor wasn't infested with Nazgul and orcs), but one would have to be in the general vicinity of Mordor to be able to avail of that accessibility in a useful way. The Gap of Rohan would still have been closed, the route through Lorien (or between Lorien and Mirkwood) would have been madness, so that would have left either going around the White Mountains by west and south, or taking a similar route to Bilbo's through Mirkwood, then down the River Running and across land. Both would have taken too long, and who knows what mischief the Big S would have gotten up to in the meantime.

[littlemanpoet]

Just supposing that things could have gotten so far, Gandalf would have raced to Hobbiton after the fall of Lorien, and perhaps taken Bilbo with him to Minas Tirith; this because he was not yet sure of the Ring, but too suspicious to leave it and Bilbo unsafe in Hobbiton. Thus he would have had to avoid Imladris, which would have been too close to the advancing forces of Sauron from Dol Guldur, and would have found Caradhras no better than in the story that did happen. And then he would most certainly have avoided Moria, since there was no Lorien anymore to escape to afterward. This would have sent him right by the front door of Saruman in Orthanc, who would have welcomed them in for refuge; only to turn traitor and take the Ring from them. Or so it seems to me, taking this and that into account.

[Rhod the Red]

I don't know if the storyline would have changed since Sauron was basically ready to leave for Mordor when driven out by Saruman, anyway.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

I don't think the answer is as simple as you all make it out to be. . .

Scenario1: Sauron keep Dol Guldur as his main base . . .This will most likely mean that Mordor will be easier to get to, still quite a task though. Now we don't know how strong Dol Guldur actually was, but it seems certain that it could not hold the ammount of troops as Mordor and Sauron would not be able to get re-inforcments un-noticed. So it is likely that the North would actually be prepared for a fight and I am not at all sertain that Lothlorien would fall. Sauron would also have to fight the Elves of Mirkwood! It could very well be that the main difference would be that traveling down the Anduin would be a very dangouress action.

Scenario2: Dol Guldur is kept as a fortress, but Mordor is the main base of Sauron. . . . .well, yeah then the fellowship would probably fail.