[Nogrod]

GAME 1

B1 Eriador 10-4
5-0-0
34,5% 29 (71) – 25 (67) 84%

C1 Erebor 10-4
4-1-0
31,25% 32 (81) – 27 (70) 85,2%


Had we been asked before the tournament which team would win a crucially important match between Eriador and Erebor, we would probably not have hesitated too much to say Eriador would win. And we would have given at least the following reasons. First, while Smaug is a dangerous striker Glorfindel and The Witch King form a much more dangerous duo. Secondly Erebor may boast of the eagle defence but eagles has been proven shifty the earlier years – while Eriador has the best goalie aka. Elrond to whom you can’t even compare Beorn to.

Having seen first the friendlies and then the games that had a stake we have to say all the above is more or less rubbish now.

Let’s start with the forwards: Glorfindel (4+2) and Smaug (4+1) seem neck to neck in effectivity, but The Witch King has played a bit under the expectations (3+1, though). Meanwhile Bard the Bowman (3+0) has risen from nowhere while Thranduil (1+3) is their passing genius. So far from Eriador being stronger the numbers suggest the teams are quite even in their attack. And in the last two games Erebor’s attack has looked like the deadlier one indeed.

What comes to the defence, the talk about the Eagles being hazards in the defence has yet to materialize. Meanwhile they have done some pretty good work – and it would be shortsighted an stupid to say they wouldn’t match the defence of Eriador led by Gil-Galad and Malbeth. The most interesting detail on that is that even if Erebor played 120 minutes against FC Valinor (who made a dashing 9/23 shots against them) the numbers in the defence are still that even – meanwhile Eriador played Minas Tirith... So if there is an edge on one defence over anpther we’d say Erebor is in a sharper condition right now.

And the golkeepers then? Beorn just happens to be the sensation of this season! With numbers Beorn is better than Elrond himself – but especially his performance in the game against FC Valinor showed his qualities! So we can’t put Eriador ahead even with the goalkeeping…

Now the stats are so close and both teams are top quality ones, so it will not be an easy game to predict, but if forced to say which team has the edge we’d say it is Erebor. Eriador might have tougher defence than FC Valinor but they’re galaxies away from their offence – and if Erebor managed to keep FC Valinor at bay for almost 90 minutes, they should have no problem keeping Glorfindel fronm scoring.

The AKM predicts:

Erebor wins 1-0 (or 2-1 extra-time)



GAME 2


D2 Real Valinor 8-5
4-0-1
32% 29 (74) – 22 (62) 77,3%

G1 AC Beleriand 13-3
4-1-0
37,1% 35 (83) – 15 (50) 80%


The stats are pretty straightforwards: AC Beleriand is the favourite to win this game. AC Beleriand scores more and shoots more while allowing less goals and shots. But, and unsurprisingly there is a “but”: Real Valinor has had clearly a tougher schedule – even if it can be argued that AC Beleriand hasn’t had the easiest schedule either.

It is a no-brainer that getting oneself forth from group D and then from the first playoff round against the winner of group E was a far greater deed than to qualify from group G and beat the second team from group B. No-brainer or not, but many people tend to forget that when they get excited about the stats only – or that Fëanor plays for the AC Beleriand. So the stas might not tell the truth.

It is also interesting to note that the match-up favours both teams in different ways. Now both teams have won all their games except one. Real Valinor had problems with an especially strong attacking team (FC Valinor) and AC Beleriand sure is one. Then again AC Beleriand’s only point-loss came against a fairly balanced offencive-oriented team (Doriath) which Real Valinor seems to be.

That said, AC Beleriand’s defencive stats look pretty awesome even if they haven’t exactly met any offencive “powerhouses” – and Real Valinor has a full day’s work to get a decent amount of shots towards Marach to score.

But before declaring AC Beleriand the slight favourites to win the game we must add two disclaimers. Firstly, Real Valinor’s attack has been very efficient when they have needed to be that, and whatever some people say, their attacking trio is still one of the deadliest – and with a different schedual their numbers would be different as well. Secondly, we have both Fëanor’s mom and wife playing for the opposing side: what is their effect on his game?

The AKM predicts:

The game ends 1-1 or more probably 2-2, AC Beleriand wins on extratime.