[the phantom]

MESPN NEWS: Playoff Preview Special

Philip McPhantom: Good afternoon, everyone. We saw some major drama in the group stages, but things are only getting more serious now- it’s the playoffs!
I’m going to break down the match-ups for you, and to help me I have two very special guests.
On my left is Ruharg the Red, dragon of the Withered Heath and lead sports editor of Monster Magazine.
On my right is Ar-Tar-Aradil of Numenor, writer for Westernesse Weekly and president of the Numenorean Association for the Advancement of Football (NAAF).

Ruharg: Hey.

Ar-Tar-Aradil: Greetings.

P McPhantom: So guys, let’s get right into it. Are these the teams you were expecting to see?

Ar-Tar: Generally.

Ruharg: But there were certainly some failures.

P McP: With teams more even this year, you still feel like there were some that were too good to go out in the group stage, Ruharg?

R: Tol-In-Gaurhoth certainly, Wilderland as well- maybe others to a lesser degree.

ATA: TIG had Angband and Shire-Bree to compete with- no slouches. And Anduin, Erebor, and Dwarves United weren’t push-overs either.

R: Wilderland had Scatha, Orome, Galadriel, and Elwe up front. Even as good as Celebrimbor and Aule are Dwarves United shouldn’t have been able to contain them. And the TIG offense should’ve scored in bunches as well, and should’ve held Downer’s offense in check better.

ATA: I think they would’ve without that red-card leaving them short-handed. But as far as Wilderland, I nearly agree, though I still don’t think people respect the tenacity and organization of the dwarves enough.

PP: Well let’s move on to the playoffs now, and we’ll start at the top. What do you think about Angband and Minas Tirith.

R: Angband has it in the bag. There’ll be no answer for Telvildo and Ancalagon especially.

ATA: I think Angband may have an edge, but don’t count the white city out. They’ll play smart and opportunistic, controlling the ball and denying the Angband forwards.

R: No way. Both Group H teams are going to lose to the Group A squads.

ATA: I’ll definitely disagree with that. I think Gondor will win Shire-Bree for certain. They’ve looked impressive.

R: They’ve looked impressive because their group was awful.

ATA: You’re calling a group with Sauron in it “awful”?

R: He had no help. Shire-Bree will throw Strider, Khamul, BWight, and Bombadil at that Gondor defense and they won’t know what hit them.

ATA: But Shire-Bree doesn’t exactly have an all-star defense, and Anarion has been leading a very efficient attack for Gondor.

PP: All right, so you guys are disagreeing on both of those games. Interesting. As for me, I can see both sides… I suppose I’ll probably just take the group winner in both matches as the safe play. Next up- Eriador versus Doriath.

R: This is another time where I’m taking both teams from the same group- I think AC Beleriand and Doriath both win their games. Group G looked very good this year. I would’ve picked the eliminated squads, Nargothrond and Angfauglith, to win this match too.

ATA: Group G did have good teams, but I still like Eriador to defeat Doriath. They’re solid back to front.

R: I just like Doriath’s attack better. Either Witch King or Glorfindel will be neutralized by Melian, where as Doriath- I think Daeron and definitely Luthien are superior to Eriador’s midfielders, and they have their own duo up front with Mablung and Beleg.

ATA: Even if that were entirely accurate- there’s still the keeper to remember, and it could be argued that Elrond is the best in the tournament. In addition, though Melian’s a better defender individually that anyone from Eriador, it could be argued that all four of Eriador’s defenders would rank above all of Doriath’s defenders not named “Melian”.

R: Yes, well- either way I think it’ll be a tight contest.

PP: No argument here. And since you mentioned them earlier, Ruharg- you’re picking AC Beleriand over Gondolin?

R: Yes I am. I feel a bit bad for Gondolin as I think they’d win many others in the playoffs and could make a run with solid play up and down and super talent at the front, but AC Bel is not a good match-up for them.

ATA: Well good- we agree for once, ha ha. Maeglin and Gothmog would pose a major problem for nearly anyone, but AC Bel happens to have a perfect Gothmog stopper in Ecthelion. And for Maeglin- we all know that the deft skill of the craftsman types such as Miriel and Curufin etc. throws defenses into disarray, but AC Bel is one of the few squads equipped to handle him without having to help much thanks to the highly athletic Fingolfin on the back line.

R: Exactly. I mean, how many squads have someone suited to mark an elite skill player like that? Doriath has Melian, the Dwarves have Celebrimbor, and then to an extent there’s Shadowfax and Felarof on Rohan, Maglor for FC Valinor, Caranthir for Real Valinor, and the Werewolves of TIG, but no one else.

PP: What about elite defenders like Morgoth, Ulmo, Namo, and others?

ATA: No doubt they are quality, but they match up better against the larger strikers and meet power with power. Those lightning-quick skilled dribblers can cross them up and create space.

PP: But Fingolfin is up to the task?

R: I think so. Not to mention- Gondolin’s defense is not prepared for both Feanor and Eol.

ATA: Indeed. They’ll have to dedicate extra man-power to them. If they don’t, they’ll score. And if they do, that’ll leave a fully capable Beren or another midfielder unmarked.

PP: All right, it looks like you guys have that one settled. How about Erebor playing against Imladris?

R: Same as with Angband- the defense needs a special answer for a dragon, Smaug in this case, and I’m not sure Imladris has it. I’m definitely going with Erebor.

ATA: And our paths have forked again. Personally I think Varda will do a decent job helping keep Smaug in check, and her defensive helpers are heady and helpful. Plus there’s Elros to kick it past to finish.

R: I think Imladris is too dependent upon building offense off of defensive stops, though. They play defensively and then rush forward to catch the opposition short-handed, but the eagles for Erebor simply won’t be beaten speed-wise up the pitch.

PP: The children of Elrond are proficient team-work passers though. Eagles can be crossed up in flight.

ATA: Indeed. The ball changes directions quicker than they can.

R: And Beorn isn’t an easy keeper to score on either.

ATA: Bah, you just like them because Smaug is your cousin.

PP: Ha ha ha!

R: Well naturally I want to be sure and not get him angry right before my birthday. He always sends the best presents, heh heh.

PP: All righty, moving on- how about the other C vs F match, Rohan versus Dwarves United?

ATA: I could be wrong, but I think we’re going to agree on this one. Dwarves United has had some trouble scoring, while Rohan allowed just one goal in three contests. Mismatch?

R: Definitely. This is a perfect opponent for Rohan. I can’t see Dwarves United scoring without help from Celebrimbor and Aule, and that’ll leave the Dwarves open to Gandalf and company.

PP: So no chance Dwarves United guts out another upset?

ATA: Ah well, we can’t say “no chance”. There could be a carding, or perfect execution on set plays, but I think the deck is stacked.

PP: Okay then. Now let’s talk about the games between groups D and E.

R: Well, we all know Group D was the “group of death”, but that doesn’t make victory automatic. I mean- Group E was in the running for the second best group with most people.

ATA: Oh, I think Group E was the second-best group. Just look at the squads that didn’t qualify from E- Manwe’s Valimar squad, and Turin’s Hithlum side!

PP: So you give The Sea and The Havens a chance against the two Valinor squads?

ATA: I definitely give The Sea a chance- in fact I may pick them in my weekly blog. I’m still deciding. Ulmo and his sea-crew at the back (Osse, Uinen, Salmar) are a formidable defense, and those Numenoreans at the front led by Tar Minastir know how to score.

R: I’d pick The Sea against nearly any team in the tournament, but I think Real Valinor matches up well against them. Those big sea-Ainu may be able to cool off Arien, but Nerdanel and Miriel move the ball so quickly and accurately- I think they’ll run rings around them.

PP: The dynamic duo hasn’t exactly been living up to past standards this year, though.

ATA: To be fair, that might be a product of their group. Armenelos controlled the ball so well and was so great at gumming up the box, and FC Valinor was of course a bad match-up for them, with Indis there to counter Miriel and Maglor to take care of his mum.

R: So, are you going to pick Real after all, Ar-Tar?

ATA: Hmmm…. No, I don’t think so. In the end I think The Sea will just execute better, and I think Ulmo will keep Arien out of things, and the rest of the team should be able to help enough with Miriel and Nerdanel to keep them to one goal.

PP: So The Sea will get two against Tulkas?

ATA: It’ll be tough, but yes, I think they will. Perhaps the second in overtime.

PP: Okay, and what about FC Valinor and The Havens?

R: The Havens was highly under-rated by most publications in my opinion. I mean- they have Angrod and Aegnor feeding Tuor and Earendil up front! There aren’t many squads that wouldn’t straight up trade their front four for that attacking quad. They’re weakest at the back, but Olwe and company aren’t slouches, and Cirdan in goal is solid.

ATA: I sense a “but” coming on…

R: But, yes, you saw it coming- BUT, they’re playing FC Valinor.

ATA: How can you pick against them?

R: Exactly.

ATA: Until they lose, why not ride the wave? In the friendlies they beat Downer- not a crown accomplishment, but they also won Nargothrond and of course the team they’re playing here- The Havens. Then they won Real as well in both friendlies and group play, and offed a quality Tirion squad and *sigh* my beloved Armenelos.

R: Yes- they’ve proven it against good foes.

PP: How are they doing it?

R: They just have nice pieces at the right places. They have a couple defenders with good size, one that’s extremely fast, a conventional athletic type, very solid midfielders that possess well but can attack well enough not to be ignored, and some quick skill at the front with respectable power.

PP: So here’s the question- if you had to lay money down, would you take FC Valinor or the rest of the field?

ATA: No, no, that’s going a bit far. Things are definitely more balanced this year. If last year’s Doriath squad was entered then maybe I take that bet on them, but I don’t believe that firmly in anyone this year.

PP: Ruharg?

R: No, I would take the field. Even if I’d favor FC Valinor in individual games, it’s going to be incredibly tough to win four straight games against, oh, maybe Havens, Erebor, Angband, AC Beleriand, or whatever combination comes their way.

ATA: In this salary cap era, on any given day pretty well any team can beat any team.

PP: Okay, well there you have it. Ruharg and Ar-Tar-Aradil- thanks a lot for being here today. Enjoy the football everyone!