[Nogrod]

Group A
Angband – Tol-In-Gaurhoth
Shire-Bree united – The Downer

At the moment the table and schedual looks most promising for Shire-Bree Utd.: winning the weakest team in the group in their last game they will definitively qualify. So it is all in their own hands and it looks promising to them.

The Downer isn’t totally out of the competition either as by winning Shire-Bree – and Angband simultaneously winning or drawing against T-I-G – they are through. It’s just that only a few would bet their money on that from the masters of erratic behaviour. Never say never, but the AKM wouldn’t suggest you to count on their qualifying.

That said, most eyes will turn into the game between Angband and T-I-G.
There are many things for Angaband’s favour here. The first one of them being that a draw is enough for them to qualify, however the other game ends up with. Second is, that their attack led by the black Ancalagon himself has clearly been the most deadly in the group thus far (with 38,5% scoring rate from shots on target). Thirdly: Carcaroth has been the best goalie of the group thus far with 72,7% saving-rate (compared to Shastawolf’s 66,7% - which is not a big difference though).

Also and fourthly, if The Downer manages even to draw with Shire-Bree, Angband will qualify even if they lose. But as it is not too probable – and because there will be two teams qualifying – we need to look at the team T-I-G as well.

Now team T-I-G really messed up drawing with the Downer. There’s no denying it: starting the last game with 4 points rather than 2 would have made a huge difference. But as it stands T-I-G basically needs to win. To take the positive side of it, the T-I-G team is a frequent team in the semis or at least quarters, and they tend to lighten up when the stakes are high (they are even known to be a bit lackluster in group-games & friendlies when there is no real price in the game). The negative side then is, that this T-I-G team has been just lame. The AFA’s decision to deny them all playing as werewolves but as wights is easy to see in their performance, but even the few werewolves have performed an average performance thus far at best. All the flash and flair has been missing.

But can they find it for their last game for unless they can, it will definitively be their last game in the whole tournament.

The AKM predicts: Angband and Shire-Bree to qualify.

The AKM advice for phantasy-players:
1) Shire-Bree will score so anyone in their team probable to score or assist is a good pick for your team.
2) T-I-G will not be able to shut Angband out so Ancalagon or Tevildo might be reasonable picks.
3) Angband backstairs (goalie & defenders) are a risky choice as T-I-G may get into berserk mode.
4) Don’t even think of The Downer backstairs – and looking at the games you should probably pick your goalie & defenders from another group in general.

Group B
Eriador – Inter Beleriand
Arnor – Gondolin

So Arnor has no chances to qualify and will play solely for their honour. But they are the dunéadain and they play on their homeground, so they will not let Gondolin win them. They may – and probably will – lose the game, but they will not give in an inch just because their hopes of qualification have vanished.

Eriador on the other hand has secured their qualification already, but seeing Glorfindel, The Witch King and Gil-Galad finally warming up to the competition and seeing Elrond back in the goal, it is hard to see them just making a walk-through in their last match – especially as they sure would wish to avoid meeting Fëanor’s and Beren’s AC Beleriand on the first play-off round and thus will not wish to lose the game against Inter Beleriand.

So is it Gondolin or Inter who are going to qulify?

Now Gondolin has been a bit disappointing for a second year in a row. But with a draw against Inter Beleriand in their pocket they have all chances to end up even with them. Here their 1-3 loss to Eriador come to some signifigance, as they do not only need to win, but they need to win by a margin (or hope Inter Beleriand loses to Eriador badly as well). Their advantage is that they will know the result of the previous game when their game starts so they will know just with how many goals they will have to win to qualify. Sadly, for them, Arnor will not just let them do as many goals they wish…

But if Inter Beleriand snatches even a draw from Eriador, everything Gondolin might have planned will go down the drain. And that’s exactly what Inter will wish to do. Unlike most news agencies and the general public, the AKM believed that Inter Beleriand was better team than they looked in the friendlies, and their first games have shown the AKM to have been at least partially true.

Looking at the stats from the first two rounds reveals clearly that there are teams from two different levels in this group: Eriador and Inter score better than 40% of their shots on target while Gondolin and Arnor only manage around 20%; also the goalkeepers’ saving percentages are around 80% with Elrond (Eriador) and Turgon (Inter) while both Gondolin and Arnor’s goalies
precentages are rather around 60%.

The AKM predicts: Eriador and Inter Beleriand to qualify.

The AKM advice for phantasy-players:
1) Don’t pick any Arnor-players.
2) Pick Gondolin forwards, well Maeglin or Gothmog, if you feel risky. Rôg at Gondolin goal might be a nice idea – but do remember that if Gondolin doesn’t qualify all your Gondolin players become redundant and need to be replaced and there are limited changes from this round on…
3) If you don’t have Fingon or Maedhros in your team already this might not be the time to include them as Elrond will be proving a tough goalie to beat and the qualification of Inter is far from being secure (even if more probable than Gondolin’s).
4) Eriador will probably play at least a few games still so players from the team are decent investments. And the opposition rarely scores over one goal against them so even defenders could be entertained. Elrond, of course, but it costs you two stars… and has only carried the owner 4 points / round thus far (which is not bad but not great if you reach for a jackpot).

Group C
Wilderland – Dwarves United
Erebor – Anduin

While knocking on wood the AKM says this to be one of the easiest groups to predict. Anduin looked like a team to challenge the two frontrunners of this group after the friendlies (playing even with Wilderland, beating Imladris and losing to Valimar only 0-1) but losing 1-3 to Wilderland and only managing a draw 1-1 with the Dwarves United has basically brought them down from any decent betting for qualifiers.

Now there is a possibility that either the Dwarves or Anduin could qualify over Wilderland – as Erebor is already through for sure – but that is a great but.
Wilderland only needs a draw against the Dwarves United in their last game and they are through. They won Dwarves Utd. at friendlies 4-1 and there has been no sign thus far that Dwarves Utd. would have found an extra gear to pull in in the group-games.

Erebor in turn has secured the pole position of the group and thus they know they are not going to meet Rohan on the first drop-out –round. That leaves the door open for Anduin to go for a good result – if Erebor wishes to take it lazy with nothing at stake. And that is a possibility. But that Erebor would let Anduin win the game? Nonsense.

The AKM predicts: Erebor and Wilderland to qualify.

The AKM advice for phantasy-players:
1) All Erebor-players are good picks at this time. They will most probably play at least two games still and thus will not become obsolete too soon. Facing most probalby Imladris in the first knock-out round they have all the chances to go even further. Bard seems to be hot at the moment and Beorn is a good pick for a “cheap” goalie.
2) Looking at Dwarves Utd’s stats it seems all Wilderland players would be good picks as well for this round, but if (and when) they qualify they will (most probably) meet Rohan and there their forwards might not be the smartest players to have around (remember the limited choices you have when the play-offs begin).
3) A problem for a phantasy player with Wilderland is the fact that there are at least four players; Scatha, Oromë, Galadriel and Elwë who can produce the result – so unlike with Ancalagon and Angband you can’t quite pin-point the one to bring you the points.
4) Don’t pick players from Anduin or Dwarves United, or if you really wish to do so, then pick someone from Anduin (in case you believe Erebor is not willing to play it seriously as they are already the winners of the group). Or maybe Legolas lights in fire in the last game and scores a hat-trick? Well, you pick him at your own risk.

Group D
FC Valinor – Tirion
Armenelos – Real Valinor

In group D the sitution is quite clear-cut. FC Valinor has qualified and they face Tirion in the last round who have no chance of qualifying. So all the pressure will be on the late game between Armenelos and Real Valinor where the winner will take it all.

FC Valinor could take it easy and relax in their last game if they wished, but with Huan, Celegorm and Curufin aboard, or Penlod or Lórien, or…, it is hard to see them lazying through the game. Then again they are facing fex. the hottest striker of the friendlies aka. Grandpa Finwë, Ar-Feiniel the White Lady and Eönwë the mighty, great Thorondor, and the first awaken Ingwë. So let us not decide on the outcome just yet as it is a game of honour and effort rather than competitive match, as the other team will win the group and another will stay in the group whatever the result.

But Armenelos against Real Valinor then? That is a game that will give a headache to many. They are both at same points (3) but Armenelos has a better goal-difference (-1) and has scored three goals while Real Valinor has a lousier goal difference (-2) and has scored only two goals. So in case they draw, Armenelos will qualify. In case either team wins, the winner qualifies.

Now the first question concerns the celebrity-trio Nerdanel, Miriel and Arien many had bet their money before the tournament (the editor of the AKM included). Where is their flare and flash? Is it that their midfield is not able to feed them well enough? Have they lost their touch? How is the number one goal-scorer Tilion faring in the defence and why has he not been brought up at least to the midfield? Is there a rift between Arien and Tilion that they can’t perform together? Whatever the reason, Real Valinor has the least effective attack of the whole group D! With a band of players like that who would outscore any opposition in any other group just like that! Well, more or less so…

Then again, can Armenelos deliver without Elros and without a few of their hottest scorers gone into the team The Sea? After more or less mediocre friendlies they have shown some real quality beating Tirion in a thriller and only losing to FC Valinor with two goals. But is it enough against Real Valinor which plays it’s back against the wall? Like Armenelos does. But Armenelos has the home advantage and in their case it is not a small thing but rather like some say, the twelveth player on the pitch.

The AKM predicts: FC Valinor to qualify, Tirion not to qualify… (not hard to “predict”)

The AKM bets: Real Valinor will qualify. To paraphrase a 7th age writer Edmund Husserl we say that we love Armenelos but we love even more the amazing trio of Real Valinor. We feel Armenelos has all it takes to qualify but we do believe Real Valinor will step up to the challenge and wake up to win the game.

The AKM advice for phantasy-players:
1) FC Valinor will go a long way in this tournament, possibly and probably to the very end of it, so any players from that squad are generally good picks, especially at this point of the tournament you should have one or two of their players in your team. Facing Tirion in their next game the backstairs might not be the best option but in the long run even they might pay off. Although: Huan has still not given in even one goal (the AKM believes he will concede at least one against Tirion though).
2) If you believe that the female power-trio of Real Valinor will light up in the game where it matters it might be sensible to pick one of them into your team, but if they lose you will have to change them as they will them come obsolete.
3) Armenelos will most probably score at least once and Ar Pharazôn is probably your best bet at it – but Ar Adunakhôr is a wise choice as well regarding the stars you wish to spend. But choosing Armenelos players demands you believe Armenelos will qualify: otherwise don’t pick them.
4) If you think you can afford choosing a player from a team that you know will not qualify – like a spot on special recruitement for one match – then consider Finwë of Tirion. He was the best forward in the friendlies and has been consistently good in the real tournament as well. He will most probably carry you points this round. Sadly he won’t be available to do the same on the next one.


Part 2 to be published sometime soon.