[Nogrod]

The AKM has met with an unforeseen problems when the luxury yacht the staff was cruising to celebrate the beginning of the Arda Cup 2012 collapsed and Ossë, never a fan of the AKM, decided to drown the whole bunch. With Uinen’s resourcefulness the whole editorial staff has been rescued but all the editors and journalists have been under strict supervision of the Balar Island’s hospital ever since and thus cut out from the world outside.

So as the only person present at the HQ of the AKM (who had a flu and couldn’t join the cruise) I feel it my responsibility to publish a prediction for round two of the group-phase. All the stats and advanced tables & expert memos the regular journalists had are in the bottom of the sea, I understand. But I will do my best to serve our readers.

My apologies if the predictions are not that good, but I’m doing my best with the limited powers I have been given by birth and sources.


~*~


Group A

The Downer vs. Tol In Gaurhoth

If T-I-G wishes to have any say in this tournament they have to beat the Downer – and to beat them good. With a draw against the Shire-Bree they need every advantage in the scoring differences, and Shire-Bree can boast with scorers like Bombadill, Strider and Khamul…

There is no question about the winner then. It will be the T-I-G. But do they have the guts and stamina to score as high scores as possible maintaining a defence tough enough not to let the always haphazard Downers score in return? The AKM believes the werewolves and wights will rise to the occasion and leave the Shire-Bree a mountain to climb in their last game against The Downer.

The AKM predicts: T-I-G wins 4-1.


Angband vs. Shire-Bree United

No one doubted Angband’s defences but some questioned their attacking capabilities after the friendlies. But after Ancalagon scored two goals and Ulfast scoring from the bottom of the midfield against The Downer the doubters have become quieter. Team Angband can score and their defence is a tough one with mighty Melkor leading the team from behind.

Shire-Bree’s chances lay in the unstoppable Bombadil who’s probably the only creature in the whole Arda who doesn’t fear Morgoth even a bit. Strider and the Barrow-Wight might also be able to stand the pressure of evil, but how will players like Butterbur, Ferny or the Nazguls take the challenge of Melkor, Ancalagon, Tevildo, a great Balrog and Carcaroth…

That remains to be seen.

The AKM predicts: Angband wins 3-1 (or 3-2).


Group B

Arnor vs. Inter Beleriand

Arnor lost it’s first game against the group favourites Eriador and that’s kind of fine, but now they need to start winning if they wish to continue the tournament after the group-phase. But Inter Beleriand showed in it’s first competitive game that it is a lot tougher team many agencies were willing to grant after the friendlies.

Inter Beleriand has an intimdating forwards duo in Fingon and Maedhros and Turgon can keep the enemy at bay for a long time, so mainly it’s a question whether Arnor’s not that dazzling forwards can penetrate the Gondolin defences dangerously enough. The AKM predicts they will not.

The AKM predicts: Inter Beleriand wins 2-1 (or 1-0).


Eriador vs. Gondolin

Eriador is finally challenged by a team that can score (on a good day). Gothmog and Maeglin are more or less the first stable quality forwards Eriador has to meet. It is also worth noticing, that gondolin’s defences are probab ly not that bad the stats from the friendlies suggest as Gondolin has met some real shooting-powerhouses while Eriador has basically met none (unless Shire-Bree is counted in).

The result will be decided by two factors: how well Elrond plays frustrating the Gondolin tide, and how well Glorfindel and the Witch King rise to the occasion when they have to score in turn.

The AKM predicts: draw 1-1 (or 2-2).


Group C

Erebor vs. Wilderland

Wilderland showed some real talent and shape in their first game against the (overrated) Anduin team 3-1, but Erebor showed some class as well beating the Dwarves with their more or less tough defences no less comfortably 2-0. So the two favourites of the group meet in the second round.

Now Wilderland beat Erebor in the friendlies 2-1 and one would be easily persuaded to think they would win again. But after beating the “team to beat” in the first round it just might be the Wilderlanders feel a bit too comfortable and are not giving their 100% to the game. So it might end up as a draw as well.

But the AKM trusts the working ethics and morale of team Wilderland is of the first claas and Oromë will lead his team into a victory once again. Now someone might ask if Smaug (0+0) or Thranduil (0+0) could just wake up and make a difference. To that we say: compare them to Scatha (1+1) and Galadriel (1+1) and stop dreaming.

The AKM predicts: Wilderland wins 2-1 again (or 2-0).


Anduin vs. Dwarves United

Only a pathological optimist (if s/he likes dwarves) could still hope for the Dwarves united to qualify from the group-phase. Legolas just can’t score to win games alone. The team is just full of unfootball-like characters and that is a sad truth for the dwarven race.

So Anduin will bring the game home and their target will be 2-0 like Erebor did. They will not be happy with anything less than that in case the qualifying will be up to the goal differences in the end. But the AKM thinks they are not having quality enough to better that. In the end Celebrimbor and Aulë are still quality defenders more than able to keep Grimbeorn, Boromir and Haldir at bay for the most time.

The AKM predicts: Anduin wins 1-0.


Group D

Tirion vs. Real Valinor

This is the death match! The team losing this game will be definitively out from the further stages of competition and it is quite clear neither team will be happy with a draw either. Some real fighting for the points to be anticipated then…

Real Valinor has lost two games thus far (friendlies & round 1) but both of them were against FC Valinor which seems more or less unstoppable at the moment. Other than those two games their stats and performance seem just overwhelmingly great – and looking at the attack with Arien, Miriel and Nerdanel will make any opposite team sweat already before a game has started.

But. And the but is this. Finwë, Eönwë and Aredhel have formed the deadliest forward trio in the friendlies and unlike the Real Valinor forwards they were in flames in the first group game as well all getting their names on the scoreboard. So how confidentially both forwards go into the game this time? Will Finarfin stand to the test, will Tulkas stand firm? This is the death match.

The AKM predicts: Real Valinor wins 3-2.


Armenelos vs. FC Valinor

If the other game in group D is the death match, this will be the hegemony game. Armenelos showed they have not lost their stamina and can take on with anyone. And it sure will be no walk in the park for FC Valinor even if they are the favourites to the game.

Even if some might think FC Valinor is satisfied with their win over Real, the charactersitics of their key-players like Huan and Curufin are not those of playing it half-hearted. So we will see a full fight here as well with neither side giving in an inch.

But there is also an interesting added factor here: the team that wins the game secures their place in the qualifiers. So one might think both teams to fight it to the end just for that. Armenelos will do that as they meet Real in their last game, but will FC Valinor be happy with a draw if that comes to their grip in the last minutes? Maybe?

The AKM predicts: FC Valinor wins 2-1 (or draw 2-2).


Group E

The Sea vs. Valimar

If Manwë’s team Valimar was not able to beat the hosts the Havens when it mattered, it is a case in point to ask whether they are able to beat Ulmo’s the Sea? It is very hard to score against Valimar, everyone knows that, but do they have the killer-instinct to go and win games when they’d need to?

With two draws from the first round this group is totally open and it looks like The Sea has it’s chance of making it in this game. The Númenorian kings, especially Tar minastir, are performing well indeed and Ulmo & his minions form a tough downstairs it took 75 minutes for the attacking-powerhouse of Hithlum to break. So how will the less hungry forwards of Valimar fare in there?

The AKM predicts: The Sea wins 1-0.


Hithlum vs. The Havens

Now here Hithlum will do some real damage and enhance their overall standing considerably. The Havens are playing at their home-arena but the Hithlum team is now both angry and hungry for goals.

The Havens may not be as low as the 21st. team in this competition (as the AKM’s power rankings suggested after the friendlies) but Hithlum will just run them down as Eärendil, Tuor and Aegnor – as good as they are – will not match the attacking stamina of Nienor, Húrin, Túrin and Hador. Hithlum has been scored against frequently in the friendlies but so has the Havens. So the quality of the attack will be the major decider. And there Hithlum will just be that much sharper.

The reclaimer is this, though. The Havens is one of those teams the stats have underestimated the most and it is possible that with their home support they can give Hithlum a real fight.

The AKM predicts: Hithlum wins 4-2.


Group F

Imladris vs. Misty Mountains

This is one of those games where you have a team with solid defence and poor finishing against another with relatively nice scoring but leaking defences. Rohan made themselves the clear favourites of group F by winning Imladris in the first round while Misty Mountains had to contend themselves with a draw with Isengard – something they surely were not foreseeing. So both teams need a win now.

Durin’s Bane and Narvi have shown themselves to be quality-scorers, but Elros is one of the best goalies in this tournament. On the other end it looks like Elrond’s children are not yet ready to carry the resposibility of leading a team on their own, even if uncle Elros supports them from the goal.

But against the slow trolls the half-elven children should be at their best and the chief wolf will most probably be forced to fouls trying to catch them while Elros will be a tough enough opponent for Durin’s Bane and Narvi if the defences fall over.

The AKM predicts: Imladris wins 1-0.


Isengard vs. Rohan

The neighbours clash once again with some divided loyalties!
Isengard may not be as bad a team the stat-based charts on the friendlies might suggest, but it seems to be a fact Saruman is not a Wizard when it comes to football. Playing it even with the Misty Mountains on the other hand suggests there is some untapped power there this time. It will not be enough to challenge the great teams of the tournament, but it might be enough to tease the other teams in group F.

Then again Rohan can more or less secure their place in the qualifiers by winning Isengard, and Rohan’s defences are in many ways one of the best in the tournament. So even if Saruman has Treebeard, Caradhras, and Quickbeam in his squad, there are just too many “beaters of Saruman” in team Rohan for Saruman to win against the chances.

The one word of caution though is this: Isengard won Minas tirith 2-1 in a tournament-style game while Rohan had to concede a draw 1-1. Rohan did not play seriously for a second goal after their first one until Minas Tirith equalised late in the game, but anyway…

The AKM predicts: Rohan wins 1-0.


Group G

Anfaughlith vs. Doriath

Anfaughlith is seen as one of the major defencive powerhouses of this tournament but everyone doubted their attacking capabilities. Then suddenly, meeting the offencive craze of Nargothrond they allowed two goals in one game (they only allowed one in all the total four friendlies), but Thuringwethil also woke up and scored twice (she made their only goal in the four friendlies). The question is, will anyone else aid her in scoring?

With team Doriath it has all being about Beleg and Lúthien Tinúviel scoring and Daeron giving them support while Melian’s defence has not been the all-closing belt one would have wished for and even if Dior is a decent goalie, he’s not a cup-winning one. But will Beleg and Lúthien be able to break in behind Anfaughlith defences? Lúthien has experience on that but will it be enough when she faces the primordial Ungoliant as the last lock this time?

The two teams met on the last round of friendlies and defended strongly ending up 0-0 with neither team wishing to show their offencive cards.
With first games ending in 2-2 draws both teams are now hungry for a win so there is a great fight to be anticipated. It smells like a draw…

The AKM predicts: draw 1-1 (or either team wins 2-1)


AC Beleriand vs. Nargothrond

AC Beleriand is a tough team to beat, but so is Nargothrond (their only loss in the friendlies came to FC Valinor). With both first games drawn the stakes are getting higher. The winner of the game will have a lot safer feeling which kind of rises the chance of a draw here.

Being forced to a draw with Doriath AC Beleriand has clearly fallen in the rankings of most betting agencies, but there are still many who believe in the magic of Fëanor, and with mates like Eöl, Beren and Fingolfin it’s easy to see where that trust comes from. But will it be enough? AC Beleriand played fine in the friendlies and ended up in the top ten of every agency, mosty in the top five. But are they that good when games matter? The game against Doriath speaks differently – even if many admit Doriath’s capabilities may have been underestimated thus far.

But how about Nargothrond then? They are one of the top-scoring teams of the tournament this year with Gwindor and Glaurung leading the way – and Finrod Felagund tempts to rise to the occasion when needed (like we saw in the first game against Anfaughlith).

The AKM predicts: draw 2-2 (or if Fëanor gets wild: 3-2 to AC Bel.).


Group H

Barad-Dûr vs. Gondor

With Sauron aboard one should never underestimate the team he plays in. And the same holds true this time, even if they had to contend themselves with a draw against Minas Tirith on the first round. But whatever the case they just let the other team to make too many shots against their goal the Mumakîl to save.

Gondor on the other hand took a firm hold of the other place in the qualifiers beating Mordor 2-1 in the first game and being the favourites to win the group anyway they stand the favourites also for this game as with a win they would secure their place in the sweet sixteen.

But if Barad-Dûr has any wish to qualify, they will make a game of this forcing Gondor to really fight for the win. And Sauron is no quitter, so Gondor be warned!

The AKM predicts: Barad-Dûr wins 2-1.


Minas Tirith vs. Mordor

Minas Tirith and Mordor draw 1-1 in the first friendly. After that Minas Tirith’s stats look way better than Mordor’s – and them playing a draw with Barad-Dûr looks also better than Mordor losing their game to Gondor. So there is a favourite to win this game and that is Minas Tirith, especially now when it looks like both Boromir and Faramir have shown their qualities when it matters.

Now Shelob has also shown some signs of awakening scoring her second goal in the first game where it actually mattered. Will she be ab le to step up her pace and are the Nazgûls and orcs able to feed her well enough remains to be seen. But thus far it looks like Minas Tirith are the favourites. The added twist comes from the fact that if Mordor loses they will be removed from the tournament and they will do everything to avoid that, so Minas Tirithcan’t afford any loose or reckless playing this time.

The AKM predicts: Minas Tirith wins 2-1 (or draw 1-1).