Anfauglith vs
Doriath
[Projected formation.
Doriath in silver and blue;
Anfauglith in black and brown.]
Formation:
As usual Anfauglith would try to pack the midfield with their 4-5-1. But despite the advantage in numbers they wouldn’t be able to dominate possession against an excellent passing team like Doriath, so they’d have to do what they did successfully against Nargothrond—disrupt passing lanes and never give Daeron the time to decide the right pass.
After some adjustments, Doriath’s 4-2-3-1 has proven successful in containing AC Beleriand’s attacking depth. Wingers Beleg and Lúthien have especially proven effective in neutralising fullbacks Fingolfin and Ecthelion. They would have double duty again, preventing the Balrogs from pressing forward as well as providing attacking width to open space for Mablung and Nellas. And since Doriath would likely dominate possession, Melian would have time to press forward and provide the extra player needed to punch through Anfauglith’s defence.
Tactics:
Thuringwethil has proven herself to be the complete lone forward—strong, fast, and aerially dominant. Most of her shots in the game against Nargothrond came when she was the only brown shirt in the penalty area, yet she managed to confound single-handedly Nargothrond’s back four, scoring a brace in the process. She’d likely have a tougher time breaking Doriath’s defence if Melian decides to guard her personally, as she did against AC Beleriand’s Fëanor, but Melian would also be needed to help her outnumbered midfielders maintain possession. In any case Anfauglith has no need to change their counter-attacking long ball strategy that has proven effective against Nargothrond’s attacking game.
As was the case in their tie with AC Beleriand, Melian’s adjustments would be the key to this game. Should she remain in full-time defence, or should she bomb downfield and overload Anfauglith’s right flank, opening the gates to Ungoliant’s goal? Whatever she does, she should expect Anfauglith to adjust as well, and quickly—Gorgol and Balrog #4’s double marking of Nargothrond’s Gwindor successfully took the winger out of play after his excellent opening spell.
AC Beleriand vs
Nargothrond
[Projected formation.
AC Beleriand in red and white;
Nargothrond in green and yellow.]
Formation:
AC Beleriand’s 4-4-2 diamond has proven effective in choking Doriath’s possession game, reducing the forest realm squad to playing a counter-attacking strategy (which, however, they executed well). Their problem was lack of attacking width after Beleg and Lúthien successfully pinned Fingolfin and Ecthelion to the back line. As a result, when Doriath had adjusted to Beren’s forays from midfield, their attacks were reduced to Fëanor solo runs and increasingly inaccurate Eöl passes behind the defence. Fingolfin would be taken out of the offence again, since Nargothrond winger Gwindor would most likely be a handful for him, but Ecthelion can exploit Finrod’s tendency to drift inwards to push forward, giving a different look to AC Beleriand’s attack.
Normally, a 4-3-3 playing against a 4-4-2 diamond, despite having a disadvantage in midfield, would have advantage in the flanks, since a full back in the 4-3-3 would not have to guard a winger (all of the midfielders in a 4-4-2 diamond play in the centre) and could therefore push forward with impunity, but as mentioned in ArdaCup.com Stats Report #5, Nargothrond's defenders have no instinct for attack—in fact, they are hardly sufficient for their main task, having struggled to contain Anfauglith’s lone striker Thuringwethil.
Tactics:
AC Beleriand would be wise stick to its attacking strategy, especially after seeing the dismal performance of the Nargothrond back four against the Anfauglith forward Thuringwethil. If the Nargothrond midfield sits deeper to help their defence then their attackers would be starved of the ball (unless Finrod links the midfielders and the forwards, but that would simply result in another problem: giving Ecthelion freedom to move forward). Nargothrond could play the same long-ball strategy Anfauglith used against them, and that Doriath used to some effect against AC Beleriand, but they have never used such a strategy before in the friendlies, even in their game against FC Valinor. While Glaurung would be suitable for such a strategy (being able to outpace and/or outmuscle his possible markers Imlach and Rochallor), using a play outside of the regular playbook might be disastrous if they could not execute it properly. The onus lies heavily on Finrod's shoulders—what could he do to offset his disadvantage in the defence and midfield?