[Boromir88]

TWO TOWERS NETWORK
Boromir the 88th

It's that time of season again. 2012 Arda Cup. Bigger. Better. And more unpredicatable then ever. We've thrown every advanced stat we could think of into the puzzle and there's still not a conclusive picture.

The Favorite = the team TTN feels has the greater expectation to win the group. This does not always mean the team TTN predicts will win the group, just the team that should win based on payroll, players, and looking at the friendlies/stats.

The Challenger = The team that we feel can challenge the favorite for 1st place in the group. But also have the great probability of advancing ahead of "The Upset."

The Upset = The team that is not favored to advance to the playoffs, but might pull off a surprise in the group matches, and knock out "The Challenger" or "The Favorite."

The Relegate = The team that will have an early exit from the tournament.

*TTN Note: Since the groups are not equally balanced, some groups may have multiple "Favorites," "Challengers"...etc and some groups may have no "Challengers", "Upsets," or "Relegates." Though we tried our best to avoid this situation, and clearly distinguish teams within their respective groups - no matter how insanely tough most groups are to call*

GROUP A

The Favorite: Angband. (TTN - 11. OFF - 30. DEF - 3. GK - 6)

We do think Morgoth held back the full offensive ability of Angband during the friendlies. They are certainly much better than the 30th rank indicates. It could be a clever scheme, as the tales of Elves and Men go...when Morgoth secretly holed up in his stronghold, away from the eyes of the Valar, and unleashed a fury of death and destruction upon Beleriand. So, we can't under-estimate what plots Morgoth has hatched while remaining reserved and defensive in the friendlies. Still if we're talking about a team that can win shooting matches, it won't be Angband. Sure they have some dangerous bite with the quick agility of Telvildo, and the intimidating power of a dragon (not to mention Morgoth), but there are some big weaknesses. Primarily, the rest of the team is not very threatening.

The Challenger: Tol In Gaurhoth (TTN - 25. OFF - 20. DEF - 24. GK - 11)

A really disappointing and disjointed friendly performance from TIG. Although, normally their key wolf players don't give an effort in friendly matches, trusting their natural talents are superior and they don't need "practice." The stats are a bit worse than they look. Scoring 5 goals, but giving up 7, and being outshot 44 to 56 is not a normal stat line for TIG-teams (even when they are giving a careless effort). However, most of that imbalance comes from the 3-1 loss to Real Valinor. TIG will lose to superior athletes, and their risky tactics makes them prone to losing games they should win. Looking at the Group A picture though, the wolves on the team can match Angband's talent, and also play a much better team game.

The Upset: Shire-Bree Utd. (TTN - 22. OFF - 7. DEF - 27. GK - 30)

This is an intriguing team, if one recalls Bywater from 2010. To the upset heard around Arda, when Bywater advanced, leaving Thangorodrim out of the playoffs. Granted, different year, different team make-ups, and Thangorodrim was without Morgoth. One might still wonder though, that if Angband comes in over-confident this pesky Shire team might surprise them again, especially since Bombadil has been a pain to Morgoth before (see 2009 Breeland v. Valimar). The 2010 Bywater team though, relied on some dirty back door trickery from the Valar to advance ahead of Thangorodrim and we can't see The Downer or Tol-in-Gaurhoth giving Shire-Bree the same kind treatment. Plus 2010 Bywater had a steady GK in Rosie Cotton, and GK will be Shire-Bree's undoing.

The Relegate: The Downer (TTN - 32. OFF - 23. DEF - 31. GK - 31)

Not much to add here. The Downer doesn't have the payroll, players, nor tactics to seriously contend at this level. We've seen some improvement in their actual focus to play the game, and thus a slight improvement in their overall performance, but not nearly enough. And still lack the discipline to beat anyone.

Round 1:

Angband 2 - 0 The Downer
Shire Bree 2 - 3 Tol In Gaurhoth

Group A Prediction:
1. Tol-in-Gaurhoth
2. Angband
3. Shire-Bree United
4. The Downer

GROUP B

The Favorite: Eriador. (TTM - 4. OFF - 19. DEF - 4. GK - 4)

Folks are wondering if Elrond is nursing an injury, or if the Underground's accusations of an illegal miruvor-steroid last year were correct, becuase he was only the 4th best keeper in the friendlies. Others are saying those folk are neurotic, because Elrond still had an 86.7 sv%. If Elrond is Eriador's biggest worry, than the future must be looking bright for them. This reminds me of the 2010 Gondolin team, maybe not the absolute best names on the pitch, but solid talent at every position. Proven strikers (Witch-King and Glorfindel) a midfield that doesn't squander possession, a foreseeing with tireless-horse defense (Gil-Galad, Malbeth, and Asfaloth), all backed by the best GK to ever play the game. If this team doesn't take 1st, and doesn't at least advance to the semis, it will be a colossal failure of ill-spent money.

The Upsets:

1. Gondolin. (TTN - 21. OFF - 9. DEF - 30. GK - 23)

No one in this group seems seriously able to challenge Eriador for 1st, but there are two teams that might, just yet, surprise us. First is Gondolin, who has the best striking duo of Group B. But Duilin in the mid-field is an underrated player. Back in his natural position of feeding passes to the star-strikers, Gondolin's mid field will be the key to advancing in this group.

2. Inter Beleriand. (TTN - 28. OFF - 27. DEF - 20. GK - 19)

Maedhros and Fingon have to be better than the 27th offense, then again, they might not be having the best chances because the mid-field is underperforming. (Haleth has to do better than 1 assist and 2 yellows). Still with a Balrog on the defense and Turgon manning the posts, they have good players in key positions and thus are an upset pick.

The Relegate: Arnor (TTN - 24. OFF - 22. DEF - 21. GK - 16)

Good competitors who are known for late game comebacks, but let's be honest, Isildur and Araphor are the weakest FWs in the group. Elendil has at best been inconsistant, and at worst, non-existant in Arda Cup play. Arvedui is capable of having great days in the GK, but also being extremely average, so arguably is the weakest GK in the group.

Round 1:
Inter Beleriand 2 - 2 Gondolin
Arnor 0 - 1 Eriador

Group B Predictions:
1. Eriador
2. Gondolin
3. Inter Beleriand
4. Arnor