[Nilpaurion Felagund]

A team of TENT and ArdaCup.com sports analysts will now bring you the most comprehensive and most accurate analysis of the Arda Cup groups.

After the team’s name is a list of the top three phantasy performers for the team (with their points per game and positions given).

GROUP A

Here we have two teams gutted after last year’s final four appearance, a team clearly improved in the offseason, and a bunch of jokers whose improvement or lack thereof cannot be quantified on the pitch.

• Angband

  4.5 GK Carcaroth
  3.75 DF Morgoth
  2.75 DF Balrog #1

  Angband has lost Ungoliant, Thuringwethil, and Tilion, but they have retained Morgoth, Ancalagon, and Tevildo. They have also been rejoined by Carcaroth after winning a title with Doriath—by the way, why is his wolvish partner-in-crime Draugluin not playing this year? Despite the loss of one of the greatest goalkeepers in Arda, they remain as stingy as ever in the friendlies, conceding only two goals in four games. But with the loss of midfield anchor Tilion they have struggled to score themselves, with only three goals in four games. Will they find the shooting touch come tourney time? It probably won’t matter soon, especially in this lousy group, but once the knockout games begin it will.
  
  
• Shire-Bree United

  6.5 FW Bombadil
  4.75 MF Barrow-Wight
  4.25 FW Strider

  Clearly one of the most improved teams from last year’s cup—only Nargothrond could rival them in that aspect. They’ve gained Bombadil, Khamûl, Barrow-Wight, another Nazgûl, and Strider in the offseason, and lost nothing of consequence. The new additions have proven themselves, especially their forward line-up, as they average almost three goals per game. They’ve been doing it mostly against lousy defences, though, and when they faced a good one in Eriador, they failed to deliver. Worse, their terrible defence from last year hasn’t been remedied, averaging more than three goals conceded per game. Clearly, they don’t have enough to beat Angband, so their tie with Tol-in-Gaurhoth will decide the group’s runners-up. That being said, we think they’re still on the outside looking in.
  
  
• The Downer

  3.75 MF Hookbill
  2.25 MF Lalwendë MP
  2 GK Bubble Buddha

  Nothing to see here that would interest a football fan—if you like slapstick antics and injuring pranks, then go ahead, watch their games. Otherwise move along.
  
  
• Tol-in-Gaurhoth

  5 GK ShastaWolf
  4.25 MF PhantomWolf
  3.5 FW NerWight

  For this team, the whole is much greater than the sum of its parts, so the biggest offseason loss for the Wolves was not any of their players, but their Wight-Wolf forms and seven of their Werewolves. ShastaWolf, one of the best GKs last year, is back between the posts, and so are PhantomWolf and NogWolf. But how will this disparate disjointed team of Wolves, Wights, and a Lion mesh? Unlike Angband, they have a chance of not making it past the group stage, so finding groove sooner is imperative for them.

Projected finish:
1. Angband
2. Tol-in-Gaurhoth
3. Shire-Bree United
4. The Downer

GROUP H

The token laughingstock group. None of the teams here will last long past the group stage, except perhaps Barad-dûr, but that’s only because of Sauron’s (distant) championship pedigree.

• Barad-dûr

  4.75 FW Sauron
  2 GK Mûmakil
  1.5 MF Berúthiel

  Sauron has always led a prolific offence—that’s what some of the GMs and team owners have said of him in the first ArdaCup.com Stats Report, and we agree. With Castamir and Berúthiel on his team, there’s the expectation that this will continue to hold true, their dismal friendly performance notwithstanding. If there’s anything about the Black Tower that worries us, it’s their defence. But that won’t matter yet, not in this group.
  
  
• Gondor

  4 MF Anarion
  3.5 GK Hyarmendacil
  3.25 MF Falastur

  Gondor had the best pre-tournament showing of the teams in this group, with three draws and one loss. Two of their draws came against Armenelos and Rohan, which might say something about their talent, if it weren’t for the fact that the two played friendly friendlies with their descendants/brothers-in-arms. When the games were serious they drew with Isengard (meh) and lost to Arnor (haha). Despite that, the fail in this group is so strong that they have a serious chance to qualify past the group stage.
  
  
• Minas Tirith

  3.75 MF Mardil
  3 GK Denethor
  2 DF Cirion

  In the two serious games Minas Tirith played in the friendlies, they lost to decent Anduin and even middling Isengard. Sure, this group is also full of decent to middling squads, but we’re betting Minas Tirith won’t beat even one of them.
  
  
• Mordor

  3.25 MF Nazgûl #4
  2.5 GK Silent Watcher
  1.5 FW Shelob

  They played seriously in all their friendly games, so at least their performance can be an accurate gauge of their skill level. They got demolished by Valimar (as expected), lost to Anduin, drew with Arnor, and was leading for a while against Minas Tirith. Happily, none of the teams in this group are as good as Valimar or even Anduin (which is number ten on our pre-tournament power rank), so they have a shot to play in the knockout stage.

Projected finish:
1. Barad-dûr
2. Gondor
3. Mordor
4. Minas Tirith