[Nogrod]

NB. The groups are handled in the order they will meet each other in the first round of qualification matches after the group-stage; so group A is followed by group H, group B by group G etc.

These are only preliminary notions about the predictable strengths of the teams. More accurate analysis will follow as we get more friendlies under our belt.


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Group A

The first friendlies showed that the Shire-Bree united will be fighting for qualification for real. When in the mood, Bombadil (2+0) is as deadly a weapon in the offence as Fëanor and Túrin. Even if they had a loose game, scoring four goals is always a mark of some decent attacking skills and even if the two other contenders from group A aka. T-I-G and Angband both had tougher and different-mooded games, their scoring needs to rise a level before the group-stage if they wish to overrun the Shire-Bree Utd.

The AKM also takes note of the fresh performances of the Barrow-Wight (0+2) and Strider (1+1).

T-I-G left a pretty sloppy impression of themselves. Happily they are still testing players as fex. LomWight and GreenWight clearly don’t belong to this level of the game. Also, with the quality of their shots (too few of them) they mostly make the opponent’s goalkeeper look good.

Angband’s defence doesn’t look so solid many thought it would, but luckily it seems Carcaroth is playing the game on his level being one of the best goalies on the first round of friendlies (the AKM holds 80% saving-percentage to be a kind of borderline between good and bad goal-tending). But Angband’s attacking capabilities were hardly shown in their game against Doriath, so a lot remains unclear right now.

The Downer showed once again that they can be a nuisance – and if the opposing team doesn’t take them seriously, they can also score. But the results are the results and they tend to end being the losing side game after game. Especially the goal tending of Bubble Buddha is plain bad (33% - 2 saves from 6 shots!).


Group H

If Sauron wasn’t playing for Barad Dûr the AKM would be ready to write the team off from any considerations concerning their qualification from the group-phase. Yes we know they played the game on walking pace, but whatever their intention might be, it doesn’t look good, any way one tries to look at it.

Gondor on the contrary made an impressive play ending up equal with Armenelos in a somewhat competitive game, even if the equaliser was due more to the passivity of team Armenelos on the second half and the kind of gentlemanlike attitude of both teams. Hyermendacil showed some promising saves on the goal and that will give the team added confidence.

Minas tirith and Mordor draw their game playing a half-paced and half-hearted game. But it seemed Mordor was more the team in command of the game, basically letting Minas Tirith to equalise. Which doesn’t speak too well about the Gondorians.

Silent Watcher looks like a decent goalie for 1 million salary… which just goes to show how ridiculous some wages in this tournament are (Huan’s salary is 18 million and his percentage is 13% lower - the shots he faced sure had more quality, but still).


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Group B

Group B looks weaker than originally as only Eriador was able to pull out a win from the first round of friendlies – and even they didn’t impress anyone with their performance winning Isengard just 1-0.

The greatest disappointment sure was team Gondolin. With Gothmog and Maeglin (and their 20 million salaries) spearheading the offence, the footballing community of Arda had been looking forwards to some dazzling offensive play, but there was nothing of the sort to be seen. Now sure, Real Valinor is one of the favourites to win the tournament this year, but you rarely win if you can’t deliver more than three shots on goal, especially if the attack is the thing you have invested your money on.

It also looks that Arnor is not the solidly defending team it once was and it’s attack looks pretty pathetic as well. So unless Araphor finds himself again, or unless Isildur starts to show his qualities the first time, it will be bye-bye to team Arnor. Imladris isn’t a weak team but not a serious contender for top eight (or even 16 if you just counted the relative strengths of the teams – because of the group-settings they might go that far though) and it was clear Arnor had no way of beating them even if they had tried harder.

There are no great tales to be told about Inter Beleriand either. Everyone knew that from the two rivalling Beleriand-teams AC Beleriand are the “big guys”, but how easily they scored two on the first half and – even if they gave the chance to Inter on the second half – how easily they kept their sheet clean, just talks a lot both about the weakness of Inter’s defence and the sloppiness of Fingon and Maedhros at the moment. We say “at the moment” as we know they are both able to perform on a different level and if they find that gear Inter Beleriand may well fight for the second slot from group B.

Eriador didn’t do anything to impress anyone, but took a secure victory over Isengard with minimal effort. One must ask, why do teams play friendlies if they don’t practise or try anything, but maybe that was just getting used to the game after a year’s break, or something? Whatever the cause for their sloppiness, team Eriador will advance as the group winner quite easily – unless they become overconfident and play like in that first friendly when the tournament begins for real.


Group G

If teams from group B were disappointments, the teams from group G gave a lot more solid performances. As was to be expected. Looking at the first qualification rounds it looks like only Eriador has a say meeting any of the teams from group G. But who will they meet will be a tough one. Unlike group B, group G spells quality.

Even if they had an “open doors” game with the Shire-Bree Utd., Glaurung from Nargothrond is on fire! Scoring a hat-trick is always scoring a hat-trick – and with Felagund (0+2) and Gwindor (1+1) by his side, Nargothrond has shown they will be making the opposite defences sweat for their salary. Beör the Old was left quite alone in the goal and so his pretty bad saving-percentage might not give us a true picture of his current form, but it is a fact one should not forget either: Nargothrond’s defence doesn’t stand on the same level of quality as their offence.

Anfaughlith was probably the only team from group G that left the AKM a bit disappointed. Their defence seems to work all right – although T-I-G, at it’s current form, isn’t probably any decent yardstick to test it – but they sure have a lot to improve on offence. Like the AKM predicted already as the rosters were published, Thuringwethil is just a bit too alone in the offence. Spending ridiculous sums to defence thus comes biting them back.

Doriath on the other hand managed to surprise the AKM positively. In a pretty competitive, even if somewhat laid-back game they managed to score and keep their lead with tough defence for 45 minutes against Morgoth’s Angband. That speaks good for their chances to compete for qualification.

AC Beleriand in turned showed how good a team it is. In the rivalry game against Inter Beleriand they were on control through the game. They scored twice on the first half and then just shut Inter out of the game securing a clean victory. Fëanor (1+0), Eöl (0+1) and Beren (1+0) seem to be in shape once again, but the most positive news to AC was Marach’s performance on goal shutting out five shots and thus sharing the title of the best goalie of the round with Elros of Imladris.


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Group C

Unless Dwarves United starts to show a capability to also play the game this group looks like more or less settled already. Anduin did lose to Valimar only 0-1, but there’s little there to tell the future generations about. Amroth played a good game in the goal, but that’s more or less all there is. And it will not be enough.

Aule’s team of dwarves was a real disappointment in action. If the idea was, that by signing Legolas into attack they would overcome the dwarvish scoring problems, it seems to have been wishful thinking. Legolas is a quality player but even he can’t deliver it on his own. The dwarves in the midfield can suffocate an opponent’s play but they just don’t seem to have feet or quick reactions enough to feed a striker. Also the effectivity of Celebrimbor and Aule in the defence must be questioned when they give the opponent as qualityless as Misty Mts. to shoot a dozen of shots while they themselves shot only half of that. For their good fortune, Misty Mts. only managed three of those towards the goal.

Erebor and Wilderland met each other in the friendly game and were clearly careful not to give up their best tactics or the quality of their effort, but there are two things a keen eye notices immediately.

First Oromë seems to have found himself a team and an assistant (Elwë Greymantle) he really feels at home with. Two goals for the two guys looks pretty promising looking at the future – especially if Scatha and Galadriel will find their game as well. And the effectivity of their scoring was remarkable.

On the other hand, even with a kind of subdued play Erebor managed to shoot 16 shots (of which 9 towards the goal). They need to heighten the quality of their shots though – even if part of the explanation to them scoring only once must be Great Warg’s solid play on Wilderland goal. But what can be promised is, that Smaug and Thranduil will keep their opponent’s defences and goalies busy, and if they start to aim a bit better it will bring hard times to anyone opposing Erebor.


Group F

Group F has two clear favourites to advance from the group-stage and the two other teams need to perform anything short of miracles to seriously contest for those two places.

Saruman maybe The Wizard, and the former head of the White Council, but his adventures in the Arda Cup have always ended up as failures. And it looks like the history is repeating itself once again. Eriador sure is one of the possible teams to advance far in the tournament, especially because of Elrond at the goal – but if you only shoot twice against a goalie of that caliber your game is doomed. Losing to Eriador only 0-1 is a honourable defeat in principle, but looking at how lazily Eriador played the game (lazy first half, then a little period of some playing to score and then again pulling back) there’s not much to brag about that for Saruman.

Misty Mountains seems like the other drop-out from this group. One would have thought Durin’s Bane and Azog could get the ball rolling in offence, and in a way they did, shooting eleven shots – but only three on target. Instead of a precision attack you get an aerial bombardment. And even if there was some understandable rivalry between the teams in this game against the Dwarves, one straight red and five yellow cards is just too much for any team to play a succesful game.

Which analysis leaves us with the teams going through from group F.

Now the question on everyone’s lips before the games concerning Imladris was, whether Elrond’s children would be ready to take the responsibilty to lead the team without their father. The late signing of their uncle was seen by many as a panic reaction to a lack of leadership in Rivendell after the master had gone. Whatever the case it looks pretty good on Imladris right now. Elros was the security principle himself on the goal and all the children got their names on the scoreboard in the Imladris’ confident victory over Arnor. Whether their form will carry them further in the tournament only the time will tell, but they are clearly going through from the group-stage unless their first performance was a happy-go-lucky incident.

Rohan on the other hand might go relatively far this year – especially looking at the weakish opponents they will be facing in the first qualifiers. Sauron’s laid back Barad Dûr sure was no real test by any standard, but they took a convincing 2-0 victory shutting Barad Dûr totally out of the game after their second goal. The Mearas backline is back and it looks formidable. And with their relative strength on both offence and midfield team Rohan looks pretty dangerous this year. The strongest of the group F anyway.


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Group D

It would be nice to say that group D is anyone’s game, but it looks like both Valinor teams are going to have the best bet to advance. That is not to say Armenelos and Tirion have no chances, but it is to say that they need to really show some quality to pass the two Valinor-based teams.

You can imagine the row that will ensue if Armenelos is left into the group-stage. The island will just plain explode, especially as the games will take place there in front of the demanding home-audience. The Dunedáin are no simpletons, far from it, and they understand that their team has been thrown into the group of death, but nevertheless: losing is not an option to the Numenórians. They will just refuse to concentrate on that idea and thus – if they don’t qualify – the shock will be huge.

Now it is almost impossible to assess their current form on the basis of that friendly-friendly with their younger brothers from the mainland but the AKM has to note that – like it said already earlier – Ar Pharazôn and Ar Adunakhôr lack a boot to feed them. That is a problem they need to address if they wish to qualify.

Tirion’s draw with The Sea is as ambiguous as Armenelos’ one with Gondor. It seemed both teams were playing very amiably giving each other chances and not caring too much about actually winning. Tirion’s attack seems to be in a nice form already now, but their Achilles’ heel is the defence where they lose to basically everyone in group D with their cheap defenders and an overpaid (and card-magnet) eagle.

Ranking the Valinor-teams is not an easy task. Taking Real Valinor’s confident 3-1 win over Gondolin as a reason to put Real over FC - like the TTN does – is compelling as that kind of win over a former powerhouse looks very good indeed. But then again it looks like FC Valinor was more or less in total control over their game with The Havens, purposefully allowing Havens to come into the game after scoring themselves. And saying that Gondolin is the better team of the two the Valinor teams faced is basicallt stuff from historybooks. Gondolin has been great, but the last year was a disaster and it doesn’t look that good this year either.

Talking not of their opponents but the teams themselves, it looks clear both teams have dazzling attacks. Curufin (2+0) is one of the hottest strikers this early to the season and Celegorm (1+0), Yavanna (0+1) and Idril (0+1) have not gotten rust on their boots either. But the dynamic trio Miriel (0+1), Nerdanel (0+1) and Arien (1+0) look strong once again – and now they seem to have interesting support from the midfield from Nessa (1+0) and Enerdhil (1+0) – and Tilion (0+1) seems to have ample time to come to support the attacks from his position in the defence. So just looking at the players and their stats from previous years would push the balance towards Real Valinor, just for the wider base of excellence.

Thinking about the goalies would easily make the analyst go for FC Valinor in turn with Huan, the most succesful goalie, well the most succesful player, of the whole Arda Cup history, standing between the posts while Real has put Tulkas on goal. Tulkas is in one way the most powerful of the Valar, but is he a goal-keeper? That is a question. Who kept the twenty-million forwards Gothmog and Maeglin at bay only allowing them one goal? Well that was the Real defence as Tulkas only had to face three shots – of which he let in one.

But Huan wasn’t at his sharpest either – and as the AKM has said many times: Huan tends to be the winning goalie (and that is what counts in tournaments!), but he’s not the best there is – and if the defences start to break down he’s not going to hold the team on the surface alone, like goalies like Elrond, Manwë or Tar Atanamir can do on their best day.

So the AKM will not at this point make a prediction on which team wins group D, but holds it more or less a miracle if the winning team in this group is not one of the two Valinor-based teams.


Group E

Another “killer-group” became even more hairy with the confident performance of team Hithlum, even if the Downer is a team playing against which no one should judge anything. But Seeing all the forwards scoring (Húrin 2+1, Túrin 1+1, Hador Lorindol 1+0) and also Nienor (0+2) stepping up to the quality game is pretty encouraging for Hithlum. Their problem sure resides in the defence. Playing against The Downer might be frustrating, but nevertheless, letting them to shoot 7/16 is way too much – and even if Aradan played better some might have expected, he still had to pick the ball from behind him twice.

The Havens played decently but were clearly the underdogs against the powerful FC Valinor. Eärendil (1+0) and Tuor (1+0) seem to have found a decent feeder for them from Andreth (0+2) but their result was clearly more due to FC Valinor’s nice attitude than their own brilliance. When the serious games start The Havens might be the weakest link of this group – unless Hithlum’s defences collapse totally when the stakes get higher.

The Sea seems to be as balanced and dangerous team the AKM predicted. The Númenorians Tar Minastir (1+1) and Tar Aldarion (1+0) score (what a loss to Armenelos with their possible scoring problem!) and Ulmo threats to keep the downstairs clean from any opposition when they really start to play: the family-friendly “game” against Tirion is not counted as any test on their defences.

Valimar surely is the pre-tournament favourite to win this group and they did just what was predicted: winning Anduin 1-0 is just soo Manwë! So they play easily, make the goal to win, but nothing more, especially if the opposing team is a “goodie-team”. Minimum effort, maximum outcome – and no hard feelings to anyone if possible.

But like every year before, the AKM will not predict Manwë to go all the way. Especially this year the best teams from this and group D are of such top quality that Valimar either has to find a totally new gear and attitude to the game, or then they drop out of the competition pretty early after the group-stage – if not already there.



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The AKM will not make any official predictions to the outcome of the group-phase – or any power-ranking tables before more friendlies have been played and there is more to put into a prediction. But some of the AKM’s ideas – for the time being – sure are easy to read from the text above.