[Nogrod]

The AKM thinks that the reshuffling of the teams and the introducing of a salary-cap have been good things as the tournament looks really interesting this year and predicting the winner, or even the top four or eight, looks more challenging than ever before. But it looks also, that some of the group-selections are more or less questionable – looking from the point of view of fairness, that is. Some groups just have the word ‘death’ written over them. More of that later.

But here’s our preliminary view of the groups before the friendlies kick into motion and we get some real statistics to go on speculating about. After the friendlies the AKM will come up with a more definitive and grounded prediction as to the group phase results.



Group A

Well, this is an odd one. The Downer is a team that puzzled everyone last year and there sure is no looking at their overall salary to predict their quality. But unless things have drastically changed they will not qualify – even if they may tease the other teams considerably on their way and maybe cause some upsets that way with the opponents taking the wrong attitude towards them from the beginning.

Shire-Bree United looks stronger this year in comparison to many other teams that have weakened, and the fact that Bombadil agrees to play with just 5 million makes the overall team look much more inexpensive than it really is (he could have made a deal for 15-20 million basically anywhere). Although the AKM thinks Aragorn (or Strider, or Elessar, what have you) is strongly overrated by many in the footballing circles and the Barrow-Wight has rarely shown forwards any brilliance either. So a lot of their performance will be decided by Bombadill’s interest to play on the game-day and Khamûl’s ability to do it on his own if none is helping.

But there are two long-time favourites in this group as well: Morgoth is not used to be left into the group-phase, and neither is the another oddity, the Tol-In-Gaurhoth team. It would be a surprise if these two would not make their way forwards from the group, but Shire-Bree might make them play it for real to advance, especially if old Tom decides to take this tournament seriously. The creature with an interest-span of a goldfish (on things other than Goldberry) is their asset and problem at the same time.

One questionmark is the ability of the T-I-G team to mould themselves into a team with all this testing of players during the friendlies designed to do just that. Maybe that – and the ruling that they can only have four werewolves in their team – could be their undergoing? They are a werewolf team and with most players forced to play as wights their strength will be a lot diminished.

With team Angband, Melkor, a Balrog first of his name (after Gothmog) and Carcaroth will make sure scoring against them will be a task indeed, but will Tevildo and Ancalagon have enough support from Ulfang and the other easterling midfielders for the team to score enough? Could it be Melkor saved money in a wrong place not hiring one or two strong enough midfielders to feed the strikers?


Group B

This is an interesting group – though not one of the highest quality. It’s hard to see Eriador being left into the group-stage with Elrond tending the goal and Glorfindel and the Witch King taking care of the offence, especially when they have not been compromising in the defence either.

But the fight over the second place will be interesting indeed. The Arnorians have proven themselves to be sturdy fighters also in the footballfield when they get their act right (like team Norbury showed). The relatively cheap overall price-tag may be misleading as these men may be playing for honour as well. Although, and to be fair, none of them except Araphor have shown a consistent top-quality game in previous years. Especially both Isildur and Elendil have not excelled the way many have wished them to (and Isildur’s two year contract with Barad-Dûr was clearly a mistake both morally and sportingly).

Gondolin used to be one of the powerhouses of the Arda football and they will not go down without a fight this year either, especially energized by the last year’s disaster – but will they have enough talent on board this year? Could it be their team is a bit overpriced? Rôg sure is worth the 10 million he earns, but paying Gothmog and Maeglin 20? When in flames they are top scorers, no doubt, but 20 million a piece? The sense of security and immunity from disaster has failed Gondolin before…

That leaves us to the third contender for the second place, Inter Beleriand. Their budget is the lowest of all, but with Maedhros and Fingon in the attack and Turgon at the goal – and a defence led by a Balrog (even if balrogs sometimes are over-rated) they will fight seriously for the second place as well.


Group C

The first idea looking at this group is the overpaying policies of the team Dwarves United. But then again they have managed to recruit Aulë himself to the team (or did he recruit the team for himself this time?) – and with him Celebrimbor – and Legolas as a striker (who’s probably there only to accompany Gimli) they actually do have some quality as well.

Another overpaid team is Erebor. The Great Eagles sure are formidable but surely not the lock of defense they are thought to be. Thranduil and Smaug will score, but not perhaps enough to qualify. A lot will depend on their midfield’s, especially Bolg’s and Bard’s, ability to rise to the occasion feeding their strikers.

But the other teams are not that much more impressive either. Wilderland boasts forward-looking players like Scatha, Orömë, Galadriel and Elwë Singollo, but unless they can make the ents rise to the occasion the defence looks pretty random indeed. The most pathetic team though seems to be the team Anduin: Grimbeorn, Boromir and Haldir can score at times, but the line-up is just too thin for them to advance. Even if Celeborn and Fram are quality defenders, the two of them can’t hold the enemy back for eternity.


Group D

There have been close groups in groups A to C, with varied qualities, but group D just spells excellence and death as one of the serious contenders for the final four will be dropped after the group-stage. For the footballing community and the lovers of the game this group causes pure outrage and a lot of gray hairs! On another note one could say, that if you’re after the best football in the group stage, you should get your tickets to the island of Númenor immediately. They will be sold in a record time!

Just imagine putting any one of the top three teams from here to any other group and you’d find them among the two most probably to advance – and even the fourth team of this group would be a serious contender in any of the other groups.

Group D has the second most expensive team (FC Valinor, 113), the third (Armenelos, 108) and the fifth (Real Valinor, 104), and Tirion is paying its top players clearly under the rates they would deserve in any other team (Ingwë, Aredhel, Finwë and Eonwë have all settled to 10 million a piece to pay Thorondor 14!). Especially Aredhel’s salary of 10 million looks out of balance as she could have called for 15 anywhere.

But who would then qualify from this nightmarish group?

Armenelos has the home-ground advantage and there clearly is a feeling there that this year they’re going to come back to the brightest spots of the tournament. But who will feed the score-hungry and –able strikers Pharazôn and Adunakhôr with no Elros or Sauron to do it? Tar Atanamir will surely do his part in reducing the opposition’s goals into minimum with the help of Tar-Telperion led experienced top-quality defence.

But then again, Huan has never played in a team that would have ended outside the top four –being possibly the only one player to achieve that. With his close companies Celegorm and Curufin, the frightening duo to anyone opposing them, going forwards with the aid from likes of Yavanna and Idril, their forward capacity looks like a solid one. The defence might be the weak spot there – remembering that Huan always performs the best behind a solid one. But having Maglor, Penlod and Indis there would be a great asset to many a team competing this year. So even that is a relative “defect”.

The AKM’s favourite to win this group though is Real Valinor. Tulkas is playing the goalie this year and that surely raises some eyebrows, but none dare to think he would be lousy in defensive mode: it’s hard to see his pride and fury admitting any goals. But the defensive line in front of him looks impressive indeed with Caranthir and Tilion also able to score. Not that scoring ability was the weak point of the team in any case: with the crushing trio Nerdanel, Miriel and Arien, Real Valinor has probably the strongest attack of any team competing this year. So if something fails Real Valinor this year, it will be defence and goal-tending… but that looks stretching a possible weakness.

And Tirion will not give up either even if they start up with a lot more cheaper team… for even they would be strong contenders for the place in the next round in almost any other group.


Group E

Group E at the Havens will witness another spectacle of many great teams fighting it out for the two places to qualify. The home team is as good as it could be, but it clearly is the favourite to stay in the group phase – even with Eärendil and Tuor in the front and Cirdan at the goal.

Team Hithlum isn’t one of the most expensive teams either, but there will be Túrin and Húrin, and they will have Hador Lorindol, who played a really strong tournament last year, playing alongside them. So look forwards to them scoring a lot. The question only becomes, can they score more than they allow? It would be an upset indeed if Túrin, probably the strongest scorer in Arda Cup history, was left into the group phase!

The possible surprises for this group might be in teams Valimar and The Sea being heavily overpayed, which is possible. But not probable.

Team Valimar’s cheapest player is Celebrian with 8 million. All the others check 10 million each for the tournament but Manwë (15) and his grim brother Mandos (14). Now surely it will be tough to any one team to play against Valimar, not to talk of scoring against them. But do they have the flare it takes to go it all the way? This time Manwë’s team can’t use the tactics “play nicely against the good guys and be ruthless against the bad” as they will only meet the so called good teams in the beginning of the tournamnet – and those good teams they’re facing are not giving in to them an inch to play the gentleman’s game.

The Sea will be a tough contender this year as well. With the robbing of some top Númenorian quality players to add to his own trusted minions Ulmo has finally formed a team that might go far in the tournament. With a solid defence and aggressively productive strikers they are one of the teams who seem to have found balance. Only Voronwë at the goal poses some questions as to his reliability, but the Ulmo-led defence of Ossë, Uinen and Salmar should be able to aid him enough to keep the scoring opportunities of the opponents as low as possible.

The tough thing then is, that the two best of this group will meet the two best from group D!

“Whatever doesn’t kill you, makes you stronger” says the proverb and the AKM is ready to predict already now, that the two teams emerging as winners from the clash of the two best teams of these two groups (D & E) will be strong candidates to win the whole tournament. There’s no question about that.


Group F

There are two clear favourites to qualify from group F: Rohan and Imladris. Misty Mts. and Isengard will not go down without a fight and will inflict any harm they can to their opposing sides, but in the end their material is just too shallow and narrow for them to even dream of qualifying. Yes, Durin’s Bane and Azog are decent scorers, and Caradhras and Saruman know a trick or two on stopping the enemy. But it is just not enough.

The decision by Elrond to leave Imladris has been the talk of Arda ever since it was made public. Now it is then declared his brother is going to step into his shoes. That sounds like poetically right, but one must question placing Elros back in between the posts (he did tend the goal for the -08 Armenelos team that reached the fourth place) when he was quite spectacular last year playing forward. Elladan and Elrohir have Arwen to support them, but are they yet ready to take the charge? Signing Varda to lead the defence gives it some added credence, and Imladris should handle it to the next round. But will they have quality enough to go much further?

Rohan in turn looks like trying to reach for the miracle of 2009 (playing as team Edoras back then) with Theoden at the goal, the great mearas Shadowfax and Felarof leading the defence and Eorl the attack (Eomer and Aldor in the midfield are also playing from the -09 team). Compared to that team they have lost Eowyn and Elfwine, but they have signed in Gandalf, Radagast and the King of the Dead. So if they get the ball rolling like they did in -09, they might be on the road farther than other teams in this group. They sure are the AKM’s favourites to win group F.


Group G

This is a good and tricksy one again. Team Doriath looks financial-wise the weakest team of the group, but even more one must ask how a team with three broken fellowships will do: Melian plays without Elwë on her side, Lúthien without Beren and Beleg without Túrin. But the three form a considerably tough core to a team with Dior keeping the goal. Thus none should write Doriath out from the Game of Qualification even if some other teams might be the favourites in this group.

Even if the AKM thinks the balrogs are a bit overrated as defenders, it is quite clear that running three of them in to the field to defend a goal tended by Ungoliant herself makes up for a formidable defence the opponents will have hard times scoring against. But it seems the money to buy talent into team Anfaughlith has ended there. Thuringwethil is a crafty and deadly striker but she is plain alone there and is more or less wasted.

Nargothrond and AC Beleriand on the other hand look like attacking-machines aka. teams that have spent most of their money on the other end of the pitch. And thus Anfaughlith’s tactics of going for the defence looks like the right one. But will it be enough? The AKM predicts no.

Nargothrond is going into offence with a deadly trio Glaurung (16), Finrod Felagund (14) and Gwindor (11, and underpaid). Alongside Real Valinor’s trio (Nerdanel, Miriel, Arien), the AKM considers Nargothrond’s trio the best of the tournament (Hithlum’s Húrin, Hador and Túrin isn’t weak either…). But AC Beleriand will march Fëanor (22) himself to the attack alongside Eöl (15) – and when they are supported from the midfield by none other than Beren (12) – they sure score back against any team.

So the difference between Nargothrond and AC Beleriand will be played on the defence. Neither team has a magical goalie even if both Beör and Marach are quality keepers. But the reason why AC Beleriand is the AKM’s favourite to win this group is in the fact that while there is no clear lead in Nargothrond’s defensive line-up, AC has both Fingolfin and Echtelion to lead there.


Group H

If proven wrong, the AKM’s editor in chief is happy to eat his hat, but group H is just pathetic. Put in there one at the time, all four teams from groups D, E and G would qualify without a problem from group H. It also seems that the teams qualifying from group A will be having easy time to continue further in the tournament from the first play-off round. The only team that could even dream of challenging any other team on the play-off round is team Mordor – unless Sauron is able to pull off some really astonishing magic.

To pull off a little from the above. The team spirit built up by Minas Tirith by the collective ownership and even pay for all the players might, just might, create a team-spirit miracle Edoras enjoyed on 09 and Norbury on -10. That is a thing not to be forgotten – if not over-estimated either – as sometimes a strong team spirit can rise even a mediocre team into a succesful flow-like state. Whether the capital of Gondor is even near that will be seen as the results of the friendlies start unfolding.

Sauron is a questionmark as well. He’s seldom been a bad strategist and then the question becomes whether he has some aces hidden in his sleeves – or whether he is somehow playing a much more complicated game here where the sporting results of this year are second rate issues.

Yet another interesting question is how will five Nazgûl’s play it together? If they can pull out some extra-value from their co-operation the team might surprise some. Also it is clear Mordor’s total financial value has little or nothing to do with their worth as a team. Paying The Watcher and the Fellbeast 1 million each is just a bad joke they seem to have agreed on… for some reason.



~*~

There was the AKM's preliminary look at the groups.

As the friendlies start rolling we'll get some answers to our beliefs, doubts and predictions. And before the tournament begins, the AKM will be publishing a full, stats-backed prediction for all the groups as well as the hottest hints to the players every phantasy-player should consider as their choices.

And naturally, the AKM will be reporting & commenting on the friendlies as they start being played.

Enjoy the Arda Cup 2012 - with the AKM!