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Old 11-06-2010, 12:55 PM   #575
Pitchwife
Wight of the Old Forest
 
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Join Date: Dec 2008
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A Little Greenalysis

D1
Agrees with Volo that BW would be more honest in her suspicions than wolves, having no knowledge of others' roles, hence hard to catch. Wants to discuss cobblers rather than BW, concerned about cobblers and wolves working together because of Ferny's spying abilities. Doesn't like Eomer's and Glirdan's votes, they're too easy. OK with Nog, bad feeling about me for thinking too much from the wolves' POV. Votes Glirdan, because his random vote is excellent wolf-cover. (All fair enough for D1; I disagreed with her concentration on cobblers over the BW at the time, but it was an attempt to broaden the discussion, in so far OK.)

D2
Feels better about me, doesn't like the Aganwagon, is torn about Agan herself but thinks we have better options. Answers me about holes in Nog's arguments against Agan, Nog just doesn't look wolvish. Questions Eomer's and Form's votes: why does entertaining trump useful, and both too easy. We shouldn't focus on the BW, but it's OK to discuss whom the wolves might have targeted. Doesn't think Nog looked Seer-like. No vote. (No strong opinions or suspicions on anybody, but still good enough, I think.)

D3
Questions Form's quietness and vote. Paranoid that Form, Kath and Eomer could be wolves together. Questions Agan's reason to vote Volo 'for being weird', when he always is, then agrees she had a pretty sensible reason, i.e. that Volo suspected Agan for not suspecting Greenie.
A list: pretty much undecided, confused or no idea about most people; not surprised if Eomer is a wolf; both pro and con wolf points about Kath, namely she voted on principles instead of suspicion, which she could have done both as an innocent and as a wolf (she wavers a lot on this); slightly worried by Lottie but has nothing on her; sally's D1 vote not fabulous; feeling OK with Shasta; wilwa seems genuine.
Analyses TEW: his flip-flopping not evil in itself, but doesn't like his dropping earlier suspicions without explanation; not sure a wolf-TEW would be so openly inconsistent.
Could vote Eomer or TEW, Agan innocent, Shasta and Kath seem genuine but she's not certain, at a loss with Zil; quarrel between Agan and sally makes her feel worse about both; votes TEW in spite of his earlier doubts: his inconsistency too off to be genuine, and he's an unhelpful submarine.
(One thing I noticed about her that Day is the amount of uncertainty, flipflopping and maybe-maybe not in most of her posts. Could be a clueless ordo, could also be a wolf avoiding to take a clear stance or more likely a cobbler who doesn't yet know whose side to take. Her tone, however, doesn't really ring false in my ears.
About the vote - what I said about Lottie yesterDay also applies to Greenie, and as we know now Lottie was innocent, it makes me wonder whether Greenie may be, too, so I wouldn't condemn her on that alone.)

D4
Shasta: intends to vote him 'unless something even more drastic turns up', because it's a clear lead from the Seer, but we shouldn't talk about him all Day. sally's Agan-crusade not making sense; guesses sally is Ferny and has found Agan innocent, but not sure if that makes sense; sally's behaviour untypical for her innocent self and too attention-seeking for a wolf or BW.
Votes Shasta.
(Shasta and the sally-Agan thing were the big topics of the Day, and while everybody discussed the former, few people commented on the latter, so that would speak in her favour.)

D5
Doesn't get Agan's point that Shasta's comment linking himself and Nerwen was weird or suspicious. (I don't quite, either.) Still musing what made sally go so heavily after Agan. Agrees with Eomer to leave Lottie alone because TEW dreamed her innocent. Her intuition says to vote someone who isn't considered otherwise, e.g. Nerwen or wilwa, but she won't, having nothing on Nerwen and thinking wilwa innocent. (An odd remark - if she had no real suspicion of either, where did that intuition come from?)
Her big point yesterDay was that Shasta suspected both Agan and Eomer a lot but never voted either; this could be wolf-on-wolf, though probably not with both, hence maybe with neither. Shasta's connection to Agan looks worse, though Agan looks more innocent otherwise; Eomer more likely a wolf, more likely to be lynched, and something hasn't been right with him all the game, therefore she votes him. (Note how she first brings up this point against Agan and Eomer, then immediately questions it, but ends up voting Eomer nevertheless 'because he's more likely to be lynched' - rather bandwagony. I'm worried by how immediately Form latched onto this point, but that's rather a point against Form than against Greenie herself.)

Conclusion so far: Hard to say. Again, what most hits my eye is a lot of uncertainty and then jumping to conclusions in the thoughts leading up to her votes on D3 and D5 (at least it looks to me that way). If she's a confuzzled ordo I can totally sympathize with that, though it could of course be a mask... Still I have to say she sounds honest to me.
What mainly stands out from this is how she was mostly unsuspicious of Agan on D1 and 2, convinced of her innocence on D3, took her side against sally on D4, suddenly started suspecting her on D5 but still thought her more innocent than Eomer. If Agan should be a wolf, I could imagine Greenie as her packmate doing some passing wolf-on-wolf to cover that she was actually focussed on lynching Eomer.
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