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skip spence · 08-26-2010, 09:04 AM

Okay, I’ve been looking at the voting yesterDay to see what can be learned from it, trying to be reasonably objective. We must also remember that DL is in the middle of the night for the Europeans and that they therefore as a general rule must vote earlier than the North American who often can be around up until the DL.

*First there was Eomer giving Greenie an early vote. To me it looked like a random yet honest vote. But it is of course possible that he’s wolf trying to look inconspicuous too.

*Then Greenie votes Fea, because she stood out for being smug and confessing to be a wolf. Looks potentially a bit opportunistic too me (in the scenario that Fea is innocent and she is not), but I understand she had to be in bed early and can perhaps be excused for being a bit hasty.

*Third to vote is Pitch who puts Fea in a tight spot, giving her a second vote. Her post are “content-free and studiedly inscrutable” and her defence of earlier post are “over-defensive”. As a second vote for anyone at this point can be crucial this vote should be remembered.

*Then Agan votes Sally because she is very quiet and because Agan don’t want to be part of a Fea bandwagon. Agan also states that she considered voting Elf-warrior for the same reasons.

I then give Elf-warrior his first vote.

*Sally votes Pitch because “[his] case against Fea puts him on my hit list, because....well, it's just not quite right somehow”

*With less than an hour until the DL, Fea gives Elf his second vote. “not because I particularly suspect her (I reserve opinions until Day 2, as everyone knows) but because I have nobody better to vote for” It’s notable how careful she is not to mention self-preservation, as this surely is an issue at this point?

Now with less than 10 minutes left of the Day, almost than half the village - and at least one wolf - is yet to vote, so anything can still happen. Vote tally at this point: 2 Fea, 2 Elf, 1 Pitch, 1 Greenie, 1 Sally

*Elf is first to make the move, going for Fea to save his own furry backside. This decision makes me think better of Fea, as there were other alternatives the wolf could have gone for as well. It doesn’t clear her.

*Next to vote is Wilwa who in a rather non-committing way opens up the Pitch-alternative by giving him a second vote, something which can be seen as an indirect support for Elf, which also Agan has pointed out. Wilwa states that she feels pretty good about the girls on the line, and has already said she’d probably vote for either Elf of Pitch. If she really wanted Fea to live a vote on Elf and not Pitch would make more sense to me. Yet she goes for Pitch.

*Then, just before the bell tolls, Lottieand Boro seals Elf-wolf’s fate. Although anything is possible, I really don’t think they would've made that choice if either one of them are wolves. Unless Fea, or to a lesser degree Pitch, is also a wolf, in which case it would make perfect sense.

People I feel slightly better about now: Fea (more for Elf's vote on her that her vote on him), Boro and Lottie

People I feel more worried about: Wilwa (and I don't really like her accusation of Lottie either) Edit: and, I forgot (thanks Nerwen!), Sally, who also appears with a plead not too lynch Wolf, I mean Elf. But too obvious if she also is a wolf perhaps?

08-26-2010, 09:04 AM	#124
skip spence shadow of a doubt Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: Back on the streets Posts: 1,125	Okay, I’ve been looking at the voting yesterDay to see what can be learned from it, trying to be reasonably objective. We must also remember that DL is in the middle of the night for the Europeans and that they therefore as a general rule must vote earlier than the North American who often can be around up until the DL. First there was Eomer* giving Greenie an early vote. To me it looked like a random yet honest vote. But it is of course possible that he’s wolf trying to look inconspicuous too. Then Greenie* votes Fea, because she stood out for being smug and confessing to be a wolf. Looks potentially a bit opportunistic too me (in the scenario that Fea is innocent and she is not), but I understand she had to be in bed early and can perhaps be excused for being a bit hasty. Third to vote is Pitch* who puts Fea in a tight spot, giving her a second vote. Her post are “content-free and studiedly inscrutable” and her defence of earlier post are “over-defensive”. As a second vote for anyone at this point can be crucial this vote should be remembered. Then Agan votes Sally* because she is very quiet and because Agan don’t want to be part of a Fea bandwagon. Agan also states that she considered voting Elf-warrior for the same reasons. I then give Elf-warrior his first vote. *Sally votes Pitch because “[his] case against Fea puts him on my hit list, because....well, it's just not quite right somehow” With less than an hour until the DL, Fea* gives Elf his second vote. “not because I particularly suspect her (I reserve opinions until Day 2, as everyone knows) but because I have nobody better to vote for” It’s notable how careful she is not to mention self-preservation, as this surely is an issue at this point? Now with less than 10 minutes left of the Day, almost than half the village - and at least one wolf - is yet to vote, so anything can still happen. Vote tally at this point: 2 Fea, 2 Elf, 1 Pitch, 1 Greenie, 1 Sally *Elf is first to make the move, going for Fea to save his own furry backside. This decision makes me think better of Fea, as there were other alternatives the wolf could have gone for as well. It doesn’t clear her. Next to vote is Wilwa* who in a rather non-committing way opens up the Pitch-alternative by giving him a second vote, something which can be seen as an indirect support for Elf, which also Agan has pointed out. Wilwa states that she feels pretty good about the girls on the line, and has already said she’d probably vote for either Elf of Pitch. If she really wanted Fea to live a vote on Elf and not Pitch would make more sense to me. Yet she goes for Pitch. Then, just before the bell tolls, Lottieand Boro* seals Elf-wolf’s fate. Although anything is possible, I really don’t think they would've made that choice if either one of them are wolves. Unless Fea, or to a lesser degree Pitch, is also a wolf, in which case it would make perfect sense. People I feel slightly better about now: Fea (more for Elf's vote on her that her vote on him), Boro and Lottie People I feel more worried about: Wilwa (and I don't really like her accusation of Lottie either) Edit: and, I forgot (thanks Nerwen!), Sally, who also appears with a plead not too lynch Wolf, I mean Elf. But too obvious if she also is a wolf perhaps? __________________ "You can always come back, but you can't come back all the way" ~ Bob Dylan Last edited by skip spence; 08-26-2010 at 09:07 AM.