The nightguards basically work as village-elected ranger protections, so I think it would make most sense to vote for two people who are likely to be killed during the first night. This means we can rule out
Loslote,
Valier, and
Roa, since they're either new or haven't played in a long time, so it wouldn't be very nice for them to be killed right away. Although there are exceptions, the most common Night2-kills are either trailless (most likely), or with the intention to get rid of a dangerous opponent early. The latter is very difficult to predict for us, without knowledge of the wolves' identity, but the former we have a bit of a chance. Villagers who are mostly unhelpful shouldn't be protected, though - why protect someone who has a fair chance of becoming a problem to us? People who appear trailless to us (though, admittedly, other people might look trailless to the wolves), but are helpful (or promise to become helpful later) should be our guards.
On Day1, I would suggest a similar strategy for the captain, with the most suspicious individuals excepted. We don’t necessarily need the most innocent or most helpful or most talkative person in this role (not yet at any rate). Just someone who knows what he’s doing.
Candidates, in my opinion, are:
Inzil,
Kath,
Gwath,
Brinn, and
Fea. (
Nienna and
Sally belong in there, too, but I find them suspicious.)
I'm tending towards
Kath for captain,
Brinn for guard.
Wolves:
I have barely an idea. My only real opinion of anyone is that
Rune is neither wolf nor gifted. A wolf wouldn’t be so obvious, a gifted not so eager to be something special. Cobbler or ordo.
This is the reason, why
Sally’s bandwaggon vote on
Roa’s vote for him looks suspicious to me.
Nienna’s vote looks as bad, and she did several things that make my radar ping badly, but by now I know from experience that that’s what she does when she’s innocent. So
Sally ranks higher right now.
I don’t understand why it’s a problem if the same person is captain and lynched. The captain has the power to cancel the lynch, doesn’t he? Problem solved. But if the mod rules it otherwise, ok.