The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post - Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

Nilpaurion Felagund · 09-11-2009, 12:28 AM

Five innocents vs three Werewolves. We need to get one toDAY.

If we lynch the Ranger, we lose.

If we lynch an Ordo, it's 75% chance of them winning (killing the one not protected by the Ranger.)

If one of the innocents vote for a fellow innocent, all three can sneak a vote for the poor person and at worst have a coin's flip chance of winning the vote.

If there is a time to use that retraction, it's now. We need just two lynch candidates toDAY, so we won't have the Werewolves suddenly having a voting majority.

Sally voting early . . . that's two strikes for her. (Then again, a Werewolf would prefer to hold xyr vote in reserve rather than going first. But xe can also use a retraction.)

Damn it, I guess I'll have to try to stay up late for this . . .

09-11-2009, 12:28 AM	#640
Nilpaurion Felagund Scion of The Faithful Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: The brink, where hope and despair are akin. [The Philippines] Posts: 5,312	Five innocents vs three Werewolves. We need to get one toDAY. If we lynch the Ranger, we lose. If we lynch an Ordo, it's 75% chance of them winning (killing the one not protected by the Ranger.) If one of the innocents vote for a fellow innocent, all three can sneak a vote for the poor person and at worst have a coin's flip chance of winning the vote. If there is a time to use that retraction, it's now. We need just two lynch candidates toDAY, so we won't have the Werewolves suddenly having a voting majority. Sally voting early . . . that's two strikes for her. (Then again, a Werewolf would prefer to hold xyr vote in reserve rather than going first. But xe can also use a retraction.) Damn it, I guess I'll have to try to stay up late for this . . . __________________ フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good...