[Nienna]

Nilp: Edited for Smiles... again.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Hammers and pebbles.
Some baubles for a penny.
Won't you vote for me?

[lynch vote]++Nilpaurion Felagund[/lynch vote]

Self vote… typical Nilp I do believe.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

The one who protects
No need to reveal himself.
A fish in the sea,
Unless the sharks are lucky,
In our numbers he'll be safe.

Against ranger revealing.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

It doesn't matter if the cat is black or white, so long as it can't catch me.

This is interesting… doesn’t want to be caught.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

^ wilwa clarifying my haiku previous.

Well, that's all for me now. See you tomorrow--or not.

This is the first time he mentions ‘you’ not being around tomorrow… it just strikes me as weird.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

-------------------
|........................|
|......WOLF!!!......|
|........................|
-------------------

EDIT: clumsy fingers

… Flag trying to get us to lynch him…

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

^ Dunno if painting that red would be legal and all (see glossary: HIGHLIGHTING) so I won't, but it's a pretty flag, ain't it?

Lynch me pl0x.

(All right, seriously, I'll be gone now, just stole comp time while the parents are out watching soaps.)

More attempts at being lynched… but then he adds all right, seriously… so maybe he doesn’t want to be lynched…

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Too easy?

Yes it was…

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

If they had killed two last NIGHT, we would have had two leads to follow, plus Legate's innocence would have been proven.

The single kill is shocking, yes, but not without merit for them.

Notes the merit of the wolves only killing one… possibly the wolf who came up with the plan?

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Then again, I'm not able to make much out of our single *chortles* lead. Except that Mnemo was smart enough to come up with that plan. But she wasn't exactly quiet, was she? She polarised the village along two lines: those in favour, and those opposing. (Plus the usual slackers, but they're always there, so they don't count. )

Then again, nobody voted for her, nobody suspected her.

Theorizing on why Mnemo was killed.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Lynch tally with preliminary Kitanna-lysis

(Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, known innocents underlined, known baddies emphasised, person/s in the lead bolded.)

+3:29 Nilp – Nilp (Nilp – 1)
+18:19 Mnemo – wilwa (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1)
+18:50 Brinn – McCaber (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1)
+20:22 Nerwen – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 1)
+21:53 Shasta – Lommy (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 1, Lommy – 1)
+22:09 Kitanna – Brinn (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 1, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1)
+22:32 Boro – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 2, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1)

Tie breaker! Boro needs closer inspection, but for the moment I consider him an 'I dunno what he is.'

+22:50 Zil – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1)

Worrying bandwaggon-style vote.

+23:00 Greenie – Nogrod (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1)
+23:12 McCaber – wilwa (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 2, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1)
+23:43 Hakon – Legate (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 2, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1)
+23:55 Pitchie – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 2, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 4, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1)

Pitchie has been much helpful during the DAY's discussion; therefore I am inclined to think him 'clueless' innocent.

+23:57 Legate – wilwa (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 4, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1)
+23:57 Nienna – Zil (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 4, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1)
+23:59 wilwa – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 5, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1)

wilwa was in second place for most of the last hour. She said that her vote was to try to save herself. If she is a Wolf I would look more closely at Lommy and Sally (see below).

-0:00 Nogrod – Greenie (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 5, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1, Greenie – 1)

Not a Kitanna vote, but . . . Throwaway much? Last-minute Wolf-on-Wolf? (If I remember right it's also somewhat standard Nog to vote 'with principles.') An innocentish 'I don't know what he is', due to some good stuff said during the DAY.

-0:00 Lommy – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 6, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1, Greenie – 1)
-0:00 Sally – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 7, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1, Greenie – 1)

Doom, gloom, boom. The two lasses created a huge gap between wilwa and Kitanna during the very last minute, so . . . see above.

No vote: alonariel, Nessa

Lunch, Guard vote list, and more analysis. In that order.

Helpful, wary of Zil

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Guard tally with preliminary analysis.

(Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, known innocents underlined, known baddies emphasised, person/s in the lead bolded.)

. . .

. . .

. . .

I've decided not to run with it. You know why?

When we analyse the lynch vote we know at the end we'll get the identity of the 'winner', from which we can deduce intentions of those who cast votes for that person or the runner/s-up. In this case, however, we can't say for certain if the 'winner' is innocent or guilty, except if the Wolves do a double-kill (which they didn't!) Despite heavy prejudice for Legate's guilt, we still can't say that for certain.

However, the tally will become more useful once we get a Werewolf, since it's an additional form of interaction, from which we can deduce intentions. But that means first we have to get a Werewolf. Which the Guard tally will not help me with.

(Erm, anyhoo, does anyone know if the tie-breaking mechanism here is random or not?)

Postpartum possums. One gem from the Guard tally muck: I think Hakon is innocent.

Thinks Hakon is innocent but without saying much about it.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Vote time, I guess. My brother wants the comp soon.

It's either wilwa (to trace a connexion to Sally or Lommy) or Inziladun (possible Kitanna bandwaggon starter) for me. But since wilwa is speaking more sense:

[lynch vote]++Inziladun[/lynch vote]

And:

++wilwarin538.

I hope to be back in a few hours, but don't count on it. *mutters rebelliously about 6am DAY deadlines*

Good vote choices.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

And our Ranger wouldn't have guarded such an obvious target?

I know we have to test such an obvious state of things, but please, consider the alternatives. For all we know they're just setting things up in case we guard one of their fellows. Like, we lynch an innocent now, and then when we get another one-kill NIGHT we roll our eyes and say, 'they're bluffing again.'

If you're so intent to shed Legate's blood then at least spend some time looking at other things. We had a full DAY's vote (save two villagers), we had someone propose a bold plan (and the supporters and detractors thereof). There are lots of other things to look at, village, and we're spending too much time scrutinising but a part of it. Think about that.

*fondly remembers the times he has been tied to the stake just to test theories*

Is being quite helpful and reminding us that we don’t know Legate’s role just because of the guard vote thing… possible wolf setting himself up to look good later on.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Bah, humbug.

Well, we got one good thing out of yesterDAY. Nogrod shall be innocent until proven guilty. That's good, fellow villagers.

Why Lommy, though? Well, the only thing I can come up with is that there were only three non-Legate voters: himself, her, and . . . me. Paint a bulls-eye at me, will you? And on a bloody weekend, at that?

Be back with a lynch tally. *gags*

Thinks he will be suspected and yet no one does.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Lynch tally

(Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, known innocents underlined, known baddies emphasised, person/s in the lead bolded.)

+12:09 Nilp - Zil (Zil - 1)
+19:09 Nerwen - Legate (Zil - 1, Legate - 1)
+21:14 Boro - Legate (Zil - 1, Legate - 2)
+21:35 Greenie - Legate (Zil - 1, Legate - 3)
+22:11 Lommy - Zil (Zil - 2, Legate - 3)
+22:27 Nienna - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 4)
+23:00 wilwa - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 5)
+23:10 Brinn - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 6)
+23:34 Pitchie - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 7)
+23:39 McCaber - Zil (Zil - 3, Legate - 7)

Oh, there were four of us?

+23:47 Nessa - Legate (Zil - 3, Legate - 8)
+23:53 Nogrod - Legate (Zil - 3, Legate - 9)
+23:55 Zil - Legate (Zil - 3, Legate - 10)
+23:58 Legate - Zil (Zil - 4, Legate - 10)
+23:59 Sally - Legate (Zil - 4, Legate - 11)

No vote: alonariel, Shastanis Althreduin

What can we conclude from that? Hm . . .

You know it's a bad thing when you've just copy-pasted: ' - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 7)' after a majority of names, just changing the number at the end.

Intentions, intentions, intentions . . . well, at least some of you made reasonable arguments against Legate (e.g. Nogrod, who remains at the unknown edge of my 'good' book), but some . . . Angamandi, Nessa showed up, voted Legate, and disappeared!!!

The rest of the village falls in between. Except McCaber and I. Got your riot shields ready, buddy? We be seein' tomatoes.

EDIT: Added 'no vote'.

Talks about vote intentions without really ever getting into it.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

INTENTIONS AND CAPABILITIES OF THE VILLAGERS OF UPPER DOWNSBURY

Prepared by Da Fool

For internal circulation only. DO NOT DISTRIBUTE.

Section 1: Known and Suspected Capabilities of the Villagers of Upper Downsbury

All villagers of Upper Downsbury are capable of casting a single vote towards the person they wish to be executed at the end of the DAY, and another vote towards the person they wish to be protected during the NIGHT by the Night Guard.

Some villagers are capable of things beyond the casting votes (see appendix: Gifts and Curses) but there remain at this moment no irrefutable evidence to confirm the manifestation of such gift or curse in any individual in the village.

Section 2: Stated Intentions of the Villagers of Upper Downsbury

• Yavannië the 3th of the Year 2009 of the Seventh Age: The villager known as Legate of Amon Lanc (henceforth referred to as Legate) received the vote of the majority of the villagers of Upper Downsbury, leading to the deployment of the Night Guard around the premises of his domicile. It has been proven that this protection disables whatever gift or curse the guarded person may possess.
  
  There being four Werewolves in the village there is great prejudice towards the killing of two villagers during the NIGHT, save if one of their fellows has been protected by the Night Guard.
  
• Yavannië the 4th of the Year 2009 of the Seventh Age: The murder of the villager known as Mnemosyne has been announced by the Mayor of Upper Downsbury, Eönwë. Later in the DAY, due to the evidence of the single kill during the previous NIGHT and his being under the protection of the Night Guard, Legate received the vote of the majority of the villagers of Upper Downsbury, leading to his execution by drowning.

Below are the statements of most of the living villagers, indicating their reasons for believing Legate guilty or otherwise. Conspicuously absent is the statement of the villager known as alonariel, who has not broken silence since the beginning of the Werewolf invasion.

Taking the unwillingness of the Werewolves to hold back on a second kill as fact, the villager known as Sally comes to a logical conclusion that Legate must be a Werewolf unable to perform his NIGHT function. Said argument has been repeated numerous times by other villagers during the DAY, and shall henceforth be referred to as logical conclusion.

The villager known as Hakon uses his gut feel as evidence for Legate's guilt (said gut feeling has been indicated the previous day in this post. It is therefore important to determine if any plot has been made the previous DAY to give the appearance of substantiation to said feeling:

At the moment of the statement Legate has received four Guard votes from the following villagers: Brinniel, Nerwen, Shastanis Althreduin (henceforth known as Shasta), and Nogrod. There remain eight villagers to cast their Guard votes: Legate, wilwarin538 (henceforth known as wilwa), Pitchwife, alonariel, Thinlómien, Nessa Telrunya (henceforth known as Nessa), McCaber, and Nilpaurion Felagund (henceforth known as Nilp). However Nilp has stated his inability to continue participation in this post; furthermore alonariel and Nessa has not yet joined the discussion.

The possibility of a set-up exists but cannot be reasonable proven.

Logical conclusion.

The writer refrains from analysing his own posts, and leaves it to the village to generate their own analysis from said posts.

Logical conclusion, although considers the possibility of single-kill NIGHTs for framing up an innocent.

Logical conclusion.

Logical conclusion.

Logical conclusion.

The villager known as Inziladun indicates the impossibility of determining the truth behind the single-kill NIGHT without the death of Legate. Said argument has been repeated numerous times by other villagers during the DAY, and shall henceforth be referred to as Legate as test case.

Legate as test case.

During the previous DAY Legate indicated the possibility of using the Guard vote as a way to catch a possible Werewolf in this post, and further considered the possibility of Werewolves framing an innocent guarded during the Night in this post. The villager known as Boromir88 (henceforth referred to as Boro) considers the possibility of a Werewolf Legate setting up his own defence in case the events that had indeed transpired should come to pass.

The villager known as Nogrod did indicate in this post and this post his suspicions towards Legate. The rest of the post, however, indicates Legate as test case. As is with the statement of Hakon, it is important to determine if any plot has been made the previous DAY to give the appearance of substantiation to said suspicion:

Nogrod has stated his intention to join a Guard Legate bandwaggon in the first post aforementioned. At the moment of the statement Legate has received two Guard votes from the following villagers: Brinniel, and Nerwen. The writer has searched the archives of the discussion in order to find evidence for the formation of such a bandwaggon, and found the following:

• Mnemosyne indicating her intention to vote Boro, Nogrod, or Legate to be subject to the Night Guard in this post; however she ends up voting for Boromir in this post, before the time of Nogrod's statement.
  
  
• The villager known as Pitchwife indicating his intention to vote Boro, Mnemosyne, and Nogrod to be subject to the Night Guard in this post. He includes Legate in his list with reservation that he is not fully convinced of his innocence. He ends up voting for Boro in this post, after the time of Nogrod's statement.

The writer has therefore detected no clear indication of a Guard Legate bandwaggon previous to Nogrod's statement. However the effect of such a statement on the realisation of such a bandwaggon is unknowable at this time; it is possible to speculate that there may indeed be multiple Werewolves in the Guard Legate bandwaggon to give substantiation to Nogrod's statements. Whether such has been done with Nogrod's complicity or without it is unknowable at this time.

Pitchwife considers the possibility of an innocent Legate being framed, however ends with Legate as test case.

The villager known as McCaber indicated the possibility of a single-kill NIGHT to set up an innocent villager under Guard in this post.

This is only post so far of the villager known as Nessa. The writer sympathises with the interference of 'real life' with participation in the game, and hopes to hear more from her.

Section 3: Conclusions

It is impossible to draw a hidden intention from the stated intentions of the living villagers of Upper Downsbury due to the repetition of the stated intentions of the aforementioned villagers, mainly the logical conclusion and the Legate as test case. There have been some anomalies detected in some of the villagers; unfortunately such anomalies are beyond the scope of this paper and will be addressed at a future date.

Some conclusions about certain villagers drawn from the analysis is as follows:

• Despite complicity in the death of Legate, Boro's innocence can reasonably be proven by the case the latter has made regarding the former.
• It can be construed that Nogrod, and to a lesser extent, Hakon, have used the events of the first DAY to substantiate their suspicions and strengthen their suspicions against Legate. However the writer evaluates the possibility as unlikely, such being beyond the control of the two aforementioned, save by the possibility of some of those who voted to subject Legate to the Night Guard being Werewolves and fellows to either of the two aforementioned. The writer would like to add his evaluation that Hakon may have been the first and only subject of the dreams of the Seer Kitanna.
• McCaber, having foreseen the possibility of the use of the single-kill NIGHT to frame an innocent villager up, eschews voting for Legate for reasons of conscience. The meaning of such a statement is impossible to ascertain at this moment.

Appendix

• Gifts and Curses: read the bloody rules.

A creative way of giving most people’s reasons for voting as they did.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Phew.

Right, you got your dates horribly screwed up, but whatever. It's DAY 1 and DAY 2, for crying out loud.

Adam, you're not in this game.

So sue me.

I shall, soon as I get a large enough needle.

Anyway, the only person I can trust in this village right now is Boro, so:

++Boromir88

The 'anomalies detected in some of the villagers' that I mentioned in my conclusion is mainly Inziladun and his posting. Having never played with him before, I do not know his playing style, therefore I do not have a basis for comparison. But reading them it seems he's at the edge of the crowd surrounding Legate, not really supporting them, but not being indifferent to it either. It seems he voted for Inziladun because he's dead, anyway (q.v.), which is, of course, how a Werewolf would have treated someone they set up. Add to that my unalleviated suspicion from the previous DAY, he'll be the recipient of my vote again toDAY.

[lynch vote]++Inziladun[/lynch vote]

How come you didn't use those Latin abbreviations in your travesty of a white paper?

Oh, do be quiet. I'm tired, and I had to skip lunch for that. Be back the next DAY, Eru willing.

Votes to lynch Zil and protect Boro.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Here we go again.

Do my other posts not count? Do I have to wake up at 1 in the bloody morning just to please you with more posts?

A tad bit defensive when I asked him for a little more information on people.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

I was not convinced of his complete innocence, but, as I said in that big thing *waves vaguely* he's the only one to make a proper case against Legate. He didn't just say, 'Oh, but Legate, we have to lynch you to explain this headscratcher away', unlike what most of you did.

Just the Guard vote. It probably has to mean something. True, it might be that I'm looking at the wrong thing, and that Brinn is actually a Werewolf that Kitanna had dreamt of, but I don't think so.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Lynch tallies.

(Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, known innocents underlined, known baddies emphasised, person/s in the lead bolded.)

DAY 1:

+3:29 Nilp – Nilp (Nilp – 1)
+18:19 Mnemo – wilwa (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1)
+18:50 Brinn – McCaber (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1)
+20:22 Nerwen – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 1)
+21:53 Shasta – Lommy (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 1, Lommy – 1)
+22:09 Kitanna – Brinn (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 1, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1)
+22:32 Boro – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 2, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1)
+22:50 Zil – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1)
+23:00 Greenie – Nogrod (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1)
+23:12 McCaber – wilwa (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 2, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1)
+23:43 Hakon – Legate (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 2, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1)
+23:55 Pitchie – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 2, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 4, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1)
+23:57 Legate – wilwa (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 4, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1)
+23:57 Nienna – Zil (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 4, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1)
+23:59 wilwa – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 5, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1)
-0:00 Nogrod – Greenie (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 5, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1, Greenie – 1)
-0:00 Lommy – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 6, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1, Greenie – 1)
-0:00 Sally – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 7, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1, Greenie – 1)

No vote: alonariel, Nessa

DAY 2:

+12:09 Nilp - Zil (Zil - 1)
+19:09 Nerwen - Legate (Zil - 1, Legate - 1)
+21:14 Boro - Legate (Zil - 1, Legate - 2)
+21:35 Greenie - Legate (Zil - 1, Legate - 3)
+22:11 Lommy - Zil (Zil - 2, Legate - 3)
+22:27 Nienna - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 4)
+23:00 wilwa - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 5)
+23:10 Brinn - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 6)
+23:34 Pitchie - Legate (Zil - 2, Legate - 7)
+23:39 McCaber - Zil (Zil - 3, Legate - 7)
+23:47 Nessa - Legate (Zil- 3, Legate - 8)
+23:53 Nogrod - Legate (Zil - 3, Legate - 9)
+23:55 Zil - Legate (Zil - 3, Legate - 10)
+23:58 Legate - Zil (Zil - 4, Legate - 10)
+23:59 Sally - Legate (Zil - 4, Legate - 11)

No vote: alonariel, Shastanis Althreduin

DAY 3:

+10:15 Nilp - Zil (Zil - 1)
+17:28 Nerwen - Zil (Zil - 2)
+19:42 Zil - Brinn (Zil - 2, Brinn - 1)
+20:29 Nogrod - abstain (Zil - 2, Brinn - 1)
+21:56 Nienna - Zil (Zil - 3, Brinn - 1)
+21:59 wilwa - Zil (Zil - 4, Brinn - 1)
+22:31 Brinn - Zil (Zil - 5, Brinn - 1)
+22:52 Greenie - Sally (Zil - 5, Brinn - 1, Sally - 1)
+23:40 Pitchwife - Boro (Zil - 5, Brinn - 1, Sally - 1, Boro - 1)
+23:51 Hakon - Nienna (Zil - 5, Brinn - 1, Sally - 1, Boro - 1, Nienna - 1)

No vote: alonariel, Nessa, Shastanis Althreduin, McCaber, Boromir88

Vote tallies… good but without any thoughts attached.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Right. So. Since my analysis from the previous DAY still seems to be relevant toDAY, I shall post it here.

One of my best clues for catching Werewolves is the intention behind the vote. Not the given one, but what he actually wishes to accomplish with his vote, which is determined by the recipient, time it was cast, whether it created a tie or broke one, etc. A Werewolf would not put his fellow at unnecessary risk by casting a vote for him when there's a chance that he would be lynched as a result, and there is also a chance that an innocent can be lynched. That being said, it is a pity that Inziladun has participated in two fatal bandwaggons, where it has indeed been proven that the recipients of his votes are innocent, albeit dead ones. However it is to be noted that on DAY 1 he cast a vote for Boro to be Night Guarded, where there was still a chance that Boro might end up 'winning'. (Facts: Inziladun voted almost 3 hours before the deadline, putting Boro in solo second with 2 votes, behind Legate with 3. There were still 12 votes left to be cast.) Had Boro been Night Guarded, and there had been one kill the next NIGHT, would there have been any doubt as to Boro's fate?

Therefore, Boromir88 is 99% innocent to me. Only the Seer can correct me now, and she, unfortunately, is already dead.

On DAY 2 Inziladun cast a vote for Nogrod to be Night Guarded. He was at the end of a bandwaggon (he was 6th to vote), and it was nearly at the end of the DAY (5 minutes before the deadline). Now, the Werewolves do not know for certain what our reaction to a second one-kill NIGHT would have been, despite already having poisoned that well with Legate's body. Therefore having a fellow Night Guarded is still a risky proposition. However the vote's placement still allows for a possible Wolf-on-Wolf. Had Nogrod been lynched the next DAY, and had he turned out to be a Werewolf, then Inziladun would have looked good.

I have no conclusion on Nogrod's innocence or guilt based on Inziladun's vote, and will have to resort to other methods.

Brinniel was the only one to receive Inziladun's vote and survive. Take note that there were not votes for Brinn then, indeed hardly any suspicion. So why? Despite the two votes against him there were no indication that the bandwaggon would have been successful; therefore it would have been better to have voted for someone with suspicion. I have not yet analysed Brinn's voting/posting, something I hope to rectify later, so my only sign so far points against her.

Up-to-date analysis to follow.

Good thoughts on Boro’s innocence and Brinn needing to be looked at a bit closer.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Um, well, there are some people who seem to be blocked out my radar. Isabellkya was one, until recently. Another one is Greenie, all apologies to her. Good thing she has but a few posts, making this a quick analysis. Notes:

• DAY 1: (36) Disagreed with the Plan.
• (95, 120, 138) Seemed to have homed in on Nogrod.
• DAY 2: (218) Logical conclusion to the Legate question.
• (290) Voted for Nogrod to be Night Guarded.
• DAY 3: (411) Posted a list with a lot of unknowns (including Inziladun).
• (436) Voted for Sally when it was almost certainly impossible that she would be lynched. (The same, however, could have been said of me on DAY 2.)
• DAY 4: (482) Posted a new list, flipflopping on Hakon's innocence and moving Nogrod from Creepy to Unknown.

She seems to have avoided attention entirely, avoiding most lynching bandwaggons (except the Legate one). However his ever-changing stance on Nogrod's innocence is confusing--and troubling. Not enough to lynch, but--gah! why must there be more suspicious people than innocent-looking ones?

Cos humans are only human.

Umm… brings up a player definitely not playing… not sure why… possibly confusion. Analysis of Greenie which doesn’t paint her in the best of light.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

McCaber has less posts than most of the dead (non-modfired) villagers.

• DAY 1: (111) Described the possibility of a bluff with a Night-Guarded innocent and a one-kill NIGHT with startling prescience.
• (141) Voted for wilwa for 'silly discussion on the previous page.' (wilwa had no posts on the previous page, and her posts on the page before that is regarding the details and possible problems of the Plan, hardly silly discussion in my opinion. Take note that this was also the DAY Mnemo voted for wilwa due to her 'crack theory.')
• (null) Did not vote for anyone to be Night Guarded. (As did I, but only because I do not wish to spoil my beautiful self-vote. )
• DAY 2: (198) 'We have time for a Legate lynch toDay.' But observe his vote later that DAY.
• (305) Summarised a DAY 'more interesting than I had originally wanted.'
• (319) Guard vote for Nogrod, vanilla reasons. Lynch vote for Inziladun, despite his comments about a 'Legate lynch earlier.'
• DAY 3: (368) 'Told you so' statement. Made a roundabout declaration of innocence by stating that all four Wolves must have been in the Legate bandwaggon.
• (435) Believed Nogrod to be innocent. Commented on the Werewolves possible thought processes. (Him speaking about submarines as possible Werewolves, when it can be said that he is, in fact, one, points to intellectual honesty. Or a moment of boldness.) Commented on the long-dead Plan.
• DAY 4: (514) Comments on Hakon and Pitchwife. Created distance with the Hakon bandwaggon again.
• (null) No vote.

The most striking point against McCaber is his DAY 2 actions. We have his changing intentions regarding Legate, first saying that we have time to lynch him, and then when it seemed that his vote was no longer needed to lynch him, voted for someone else (a fellow Werewolf). To look good when saying 'I told you so'? To cover himself in case Inziladun gets lynched (which did happen eventually)? Lacking more concrete suspects, and since I might have no time to go back and post it--also, no time to read his rebuttal of my suspicions --I shall cast my vote for him. As in now:

[lynch vote]++McCaber[/lynch vote]

and

++Boromir88.

Analyse the data yourself. You'll believe me when I say he's innocent.

Interesting thoughts on McCaber then a lynch vote for him and a guard vote for Boro.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Analysis of the others with more posts will have to come tomorrow, provided you or I am still alive by then.

Another mention of ‘you’ being alive toMorrow…

On the whole I’m still on the fence about Nilp. I’m not really sure how a Nilp-wolf acts and if this is anything like that. He has been logical and maybe a little bit too perfect. Something is just rubbing me the wrong way…