The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post - TIG: LXV

mormegil · 08-18-2009, 09:34 PM

Well I must thank two people, the ranger, as I am almost certain I was the wolf's target last night and the head of Boro's coin.

According to Nienna's count here is the votes from yesterday

Rikae--> Sally
Morm--> Form
Lommy--> Form
Alona--> No Vote
Nessa--> No Vote
Sally--> Morm
--Morm--Form
Autume--> Morm
--Rikae--Sally
Rikae --> Alona
Form--> Alona
Mac--> Alona
Nienna--> Morm
Morm--> Alona
Dury--> Alona
Nerwen--> Morm
--Sally-- Morm
Sally--> Morm

Alona voters: Durelin, Morm, Mac, Form, Rikae
Morm voters: Sally, Nerwen, Nienna, Autume, Mira (somehow not included on this list but was on an earlier list)
No votes were Alona and Nessa

Very interesting the way it played out. I am very much inclined to believe Durelin, Mac and Rikae innocent with Form a possible bear suspect.

Somehow my suspicion of Sally was not lessened at all

. Alona no voted which is odd too but would another wolf go along with that? I doubt it, too obvious for me I would think and I'm not sure Nessa is that bold. I am thinking her a bit more innocent.

Did Lommy vote?

I would be content to focus most all the attention on the Morm voters from yesterday and keep an eye on Form.

Here is somewhat of a wild plan that may work. We have 12 remaining villagers, 3 gifteds, a cobbler, bear, two wolves and 5 ordos including me. If the 3 gifted came forward, but no revealing their role, this is for two reasons. 1. With the hunter still at large the wolves and bear will have to second guess which one to kill. 2. The cobbler may decide to join the ranks of the proclaimed gifteds. However, if this were to happen we would need to decide if we want to believe the claim at all before the gifteds reveal their true role. I think the cobbler would be very obvious if she tries to reveal herself (I'm thinking Sally first then Nerwen as likely candidates). Anyway that would give 3 solid innocents of 12, if I am assumed innocent because of Shasta's protection last night, I had hoped he would have survived to verify the claim. Anyway, I think it reasonable to assume the worst case for me would be that I am the bear, with this plan in place we could fairly quickly eliminate the wolves and bear. There would be 4 to 5 known innocents, depending upon who you are. For the 4 other ordos they will know that they are innocent, ergo 5.

What say ye? Too soon for this? It would be that 1/3 of the village would be known innocents and then I think it would be fairly easy to ferret out the guilty based on voting patterns etc...

EDIT: Crossed with everybody since Boro's last post.

08-18-2009, 09:34 PM	#1126
mormegil Maundering Mage Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Texas Posts: 4,651	Well I must thank two people, the ranger, as I am almost certain I was the wolf's target last night and the head of Boro's coin. According to Nienna's count here is the votes from yesterday Rikae--> Sally Morm--> Form Lommy--> Form Alona--> No Vote Nessa--> No Vote Sally--> Morm --Morm--Form Autume--> Morm --Rikae--Sally Rikae --> Alona Form--> Alona Mac--> Alona Nienna--> Morm Morm--> Alona Dury--> Alona Nerwen--> Morm --Sally-- Morm Sally--> Morm Alona voters: Durelin, Morm, Mac, Form, Rikae Morm voters: Sally, Nerwen, Nienna, Autume, Mira (somehow not included on this list but was on an earlier list) No votes were Alona and Nessa Very interesting the way it played out. I am very much inclined to believe Durelin, Mac and Rikae innocent with Form a possible bear suspect. Somehow my suspicion of Sally was not lessened at all . Alona no voted which is odd too but would another wolf go along with that? I doubt it, too obvious for me I would think and I'm not sure Nessa is that bold. I am thinking her a bit more innocent. Did Lommy vote? I would be content to focus most all the attention on the Morm voters from yesterday and keep an eye on Form. Here is somewhat of a wild plan that may work. We have 12 remaining villagers, 3 gifteds, a cobbler, bear, two wolves and 5 ordos including me. If the 3 gifted came forward, but no revealing their role, this is for two reasons. 1. With the hunter still at large the wolves and bear will have to second guess which one to kill. 2. The cobbler may decide to join the ranks of the proclaimed gifteds. However, if this were to happen we would need to decide if we want to believe the claim at all before the gifteds reveal their true role. I think the cobbler would be very obvious if she tries to reveal herself (I'm thinking Sally first then Nerwen as likely candidates). Anyway that would give 3 solid innocents of 12, if I am assumed innocent because of Shasta's protection last night, I had hoped he would have survived to verify the claim. Anyway, I think it reasonable to assume the worst case for me would be that I am the bear, with this plan in place we could fairly quickly eliminate the wolves and bear. There would be 4 to 5 known innocents, depending upon who you are. For the 4 other ordos they will know that they are innocent, ergo 5. What say ye? Too soon for this? It would be that 1/3 of the village would be known innocents and then I think it would be fairly easy to ferret out the guilty based on voting patterns etc... EDIT: Crossed with everybody since Boro's last post. __________________ “I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”