[Boromir88]

Ok, so who would want to target the phantom on Day 1.

Actually, I totally missed the Lovers thing. I thought the phantom was the seer. Turns out he was just the phantom. My bad.~Fea

I missed the lovers thing too, and now it makes sense why he said no Mac and no sally yesterday. But what made you think seer? I didn't see anything to suggest it. I would imagine if tp was a seer, he'd be out in the open, but he wouldn't make himself a target at night. Also, I doubt he'd draw that much attention about the cobbler. At least not the cobbler of this opera, who would be able to oust him to the wolves. That's my guess about it, I guess we should wait on tp though.

Sally - I've seen sally speak out strongly against tp being an early kill choice. She seems to generally enjoy keeping him around, at least for a couple days. The choice doesn't fit her. I also want to wait to hear some more from sally. I don't think her uncounted late vote should be a reason of suspicion, we're talking about missing the vote by a matter of seconds, and her last post you can tell she was in a rush. Her original vote for Nog, and then retract for Menel, should be looked into.

Lariren - well she's admitted to being completely terrified of him? Oh ok, but that's pretty weak. I have no guess as to what her thought process/style is yet.

Fea - she played a long with him yesterday, I forget who said it (tp maybe?) but she's perfectly capable of acting sweet and loving and then turning around, killing you at night. Similar to sally though, she just generally seems to like having tp around for a little while. I also ask, why not me last night (not to sound me-centered)? Fea was buttering me up as well.

Ilya - I'm sensing a theme here, because Ilya's even lamented about tp not being in villages before. Would she want to get rid of tp early?

Brinn - Somehow I don't see Brinn missing tp all that much, day 1 or day 5, wouldn't matter. Brinn's overall posting today makes me think she's innocent, but I could see this being a Brinn kill.

Kath - Same for Kath, I think she relishes for the chance to have killing power. She seemed to take delight in being able to get rid of me and Nogrod early, in our last stint, and I would expect the same if she had a chance of tp. I know when I have the power to kill, I look to get rid of Kath early, and now I sense the feeling is mutual.

Agan - Doesn't make sense as an Agan target early on. Unless tp was deemed a threat, but that could be said for anyone here. I haven't looked into Agan's posts too much yet, which is unusual as she usually makes a mark in me early. Her comment about laziness looks innocent, I can't picture Agan as a lazy wolf, but she hasn't been normal Agan. May I ask Agan, did your involvement in your last game wear you down a bit?

Gwath - Similar to Kath, his sig should explain it - that conniving, no good, yet brilliant werebear.

Shasta - The Shasta-tp fued seems to be well known. I can see tp being an early target for Shasta. But not for fueding reason, I picture Shasta to be far more calculating then getting rid of someone because of a fued. If Shasta is innocent, he'd want an innocent tp around, if a wolf, he'd want an innocent tp gone.

Strongbow - not sure about him. He's well read and got a great grasp on how people and things work. His cobbler post today looks earnest and honest, I don't have a grasp on him yet.

Macalaure - Kind of similar to Shasta, if a wolf, and if deemed a threat than I think he'd want tp gone fast. However, the way tp didn't want to see Mac (and sally for that matter) be lynched yesterday speaks towards Mac's innocence. Unless tp was targetted because the wolves thought he was the seer, but I'm not convinced that's why tp was targetted. Also, I'd imagine if Mac was a wolf, and believed someone to be the seer, he'd do a little more poking around to try to get the seer to let a hint slip.

Gollum - I have no idea about 'im.

tgwbs and Cailin - I put them together because for these two it's been so long since they've been here, I've forgotten a lot. Add on top of that, I could never get a good read on these two. See with tp, I expect ploys, traps, lots and lots of involvement, for good or bad I may be able to figure it out in a couple days. With Fea I expect chaos and plain out insanity. But for tgwbs and Cailin, I have no idea what you're going to get. The only way I've been able to spot a wolf Cailin was from the hunter's kill, and the only way I knew tgwbs was innocent was when he voted for himself.

That's what's running through my head, make of it what you will. There may not even be anything useful at all anyway. There are a couple variables that muddy it up. That is any critic would see tp as a threat, and thus know they would have to get rid of him sooner rather than later. How soon of would depend upon what they thought his role was...If they believed he was the seer they would want him gone right away, and with no Ranger in the way to stop it, they'd do it right away.

Edit: crossed with Lari and Mac

And Lari be my guest, I may not get to that until tomorrow - so there's your chance to get in something that hasn't already been posted 3 times