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Old 09-19-2008, 01:57 PM   #538
Macalaure
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Macalaure is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Macalaure is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.Macalaure is a guest of Elrond in Rivendell.
Ordo -> Wolfisaloser
KI -> Boro
Ordo -> me
Ordo -> Rikae
WolfofDespair -> Day1
McCaber -> WolfofDespair (he calls it semi-random, which in the light of CoD's vote just preceding his makes sense)
Cobbler -> Brinn
Fea -> Boro (puts Boro in the lead over CoD)
Izzy -> WolfofDespair (Boro and CoD 2, unless Izzywolf really did try to do some backstabbing, this looks very innocent)
Ordo -> Brinn
me -> WolfofDespair (again, unless some backstabbing was planned, innocent-looking. I would say, though, that this vote is more likely to be a backstab than Izzy's, because it has more determination behind it, so to speak)
KI -> Gwath
Wolfisaloser -> Boro (I agree, this would have had to be a pretty insane move if Boro is a wolf)
Mith -> WolfofDespair (it would have been easy to avoid this vote, unless Mithwolf thought CoD would go down eventually anyway, and looking good at his expense worth it - seeing Sally's vote, however, this then must've been a plan of Mith alone, and no agreed strategy)
Boro -> Lalcobblë (it's still a throwaway)

The CoD-voters still look innocent, barring a wolf-on-wolf, or even a backstab. Fea's and Boro's vote look a lot less innocent. Sally's vote makes Boro look good.

Mith -> Gwath (bad reasoning to go along with it)
Boro -> Lalcobblë (his reasons at the time were thin, but now that we know her role, it's hard to argue against it)
Fea -> Boro (what to do with this one?)
Izzy -> Nogrod (and with this?)
Ordo -> Nogrod
McCaber -> Wolfisaloser (calculated wolf-on-wolf risk in a wide field of votes?)
Ordo -> McCaber
Seer -> Gwath
Wolfisaloser -> Nogrod
Lalcobblë -> McCaber (she obviously thought him innocent and tried to get rid of him... doesn't mean he is innocent, of course)
Ordo -> Wolfisaloser
me -> Gwath (in hindsight, choosing ordo over ordo, but as a wolf, I could also have stayed out of it all and see Nogrod die or voted Nogrod to save Sally. Of course, I suspected Sally before and one might wonder why I picked Gwath over her)
Nerwen -> Boro (throwaway)
KI -> Gwath

All early votes carry some amount of suspiciousness, especially Fea and Izzy's. Nerwen's looks bad. My choosing Gwath over Sally does have some smell. McCaber's could be wolvish, but out of all these, it's on the more innocent side.

Ordo -> Wolfisaloser
KI -> Nogrod
Boro -> Lalcobblë (Groundhog day...)
Fea -> Mith (?)
Lalcobblë -> Mith (cobblerish bandwaggoning. Mith did look innocent, but maybe this was enhanced by Lal thinking Fea might be a wolf)
Izzy -> Nogrod (not look good this one does)
McCaber -> Wolfisaloser (can McCaber really be so eager to be the last remaining one?)
Mith -> Lalcobblë (little surprise)
Nerwen -> Boro (another throwaway for the same person)
Wolfisaloser -> Nogrod
Seer -> Wolfisaloser
KI -> Wolfisaloser
me -> Wolfisaloser (sure, I voted a wolf, but only when it was clear where the train went (I did cross with Nogrod, though))

Izzy's and Nerwen's look bad. Fea's a little. Boro and Mith are middle-of-the-road-ish, McCaber's and mine are more innocent-ish, his more so.

Seer -> Lalcobblë
Lalcobblë -> Boro (she apparently thought that no wolf would go after a cobbler like that. Some do, though)
Boro -> McCaber (trap or no trap?)
KI -> Nerwen
Izzy -> Fea (her reason seems logical, all other options had a catch... except Boro - voting for him might or might not have been smart, but a throwaway?)
Fea -> Lalcobblë (she could have thought she was not the cobbler, or decided to make herself look better by giving a deciding vote for the cobbler)
McCaber -> Boro (retaliation, understandable? maybe. helpful? certainly no.)
Nerwen -> Lalcobblë (same as Fea, the alternative would have been Boro, which could have made a Nerewolf look bad later)
Mith -> McCaber (don't like this one, for the reason I stated against Boro in my last post)
me -> Lalcobblë (logical choice at this late point)
KI -> Lalcobblë

Hard to tell which votes were suspicious without a known wolf around. Mith's stands out a little and I hesitated too long.

Nerwen (1: n/a, 2: suspicious, 3: somewhat suspicious, 4: unsuspicious)
Izzy (1: innocent, 2: suspicious, 3: suspicious, 4: hard to tell)
Fea (1: somewhat suspicious, 2: suspicious, 3: somewhat suspicious, 4: unsuspicious)
Boro (1: somewhat suspicious, 2: a little suspicious, 3: neither, 4: who knows)
Mith (1: pretty innocent, 2: somewhat suspicious, 3: neither, 4: a bit suspicious)
me (1: quite innocent, 2: a little suspicious, 3: innocent-ish, 4: a bit suspicious)
McCaber (1: rather innocent, 2: more innocent, 3: innocent, 4: deeply unhelpful)

Nerwen's problem is that, unlike the rest, she does not have one piece of innocent-looking evidence for her. If she's not the wolf, it means that the wolf obtained one such.
Izzy and Mith lynched one wolf, McCaber and I two. Not one of these votes have a clear wolf-on-wolf feeling to it. Boro was seriously threatened by a vote from a wolf. Fea made a bluff that I have a hard time imagining a (lone!) wolf would have done.

I'm not really convinced of Nerwen's guilt, but something tells me we should lynch her before we check out the people looking innocent at first glance.
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