[Sauron the White]

So, Boro, don't fancy sitting through three hours of Bilbo hiding from his neighbours with the tense point being the death of Frodo's parents? Nor me. The Star Wars analogy is spot on.

I do not think that focus has a snowballs chance of being the second movie.
Sauron, Dol Goldur, and the Council throwing him out of Mirkwood is what I would put my money on. That is far more interesting than Bilbo doing just about anything you can think of.