[the phantom]

Now, I would like to put a stop to the idea that I am the bear. I thought I settled the matter fairly well in this post (read it again if you wish), but if you want further evidence look at what someone else said.

Posted by Holby-

As for myself I am most incline to believe The Phantom.

Thank you.

While I do think he is smart for a double-bluff...

...true...

...I think he definitely would think of all possibilities about drawing attention to himself, especially from the seer

Exactly! Of course I would've thought of that, and therefore would not have done it. Your analysis is perfect, Holby.

If I am a bear or wolf then I am a foolish one- and anyone who knows me knows I am not foolish. I'm not trying to sound arrogant, but the fact is I could do a much better job at werewolfing or werebearing than what I have done today, and anyone who has seen me in action knows it.

Now, I will get rid of the idea that I am the cobbler.

First, since when does the cobbler want the werecreatures to kill each other? He/she is on their side, so why would he/she ask the werebear to try and kill the wolves?

He/she wouldn't. He/she doesn't want any werecreatures to die.

Also- and most importantly- the cobbler's purpose is to cause confusion. That's what he/she is good for. Now- why in the world would a cobbler attempt to mess with people and confuse them so EARLY? At this point, we are all plenty confused! We have no information to work with- no votes, no deaths, no anything!

I ask you, what fool of a cobbler would try and make a move at this point in the game? It is irrational. A cobbler would want to bide his time and try and strike a blow at a critical juncture. Now is not a critical time. Now is simply a shot in the dark. A cobbler can't do much damage this early, so why try to and thus call attention to himself/herself?

Once again, I'm not trying to sound arrogant, but if I was the cobbler I would be playing much better than this, and you know it.