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Now, Herr Phantom, you talk of striking a deal with the devil? But I put it to you, good sir, that you are in fact the devil himself, that is: the bear!
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Don't be silly. As you are aware, I am a very logical person. No matter what I am, werewolf, werebear, or villager, you can bet that anything I do is meant to help myself in a logical fashion. And my proposition to the werebear would be incredibly illogical if I was indeed the werebear.
The fact is, because the werebear has no teammates, he/she does not care who dies in each round of voting and such, therefore it is nearly impossible to spot the werebear based on votes. Because of this, the werebear will blend in with everyone else, and there is no way to stop him/her from doing this. It is obviously the safest way for the werebear to behave.
The moment I tried to make a deal with the bear, I
KNEW someone would accuse me of pulling a double bluff. My deal calls attention to me- it draws a line between the werebear and I. There is NO WAY the actual werebear would do something like this.
There is no reason for the bear to "bluff" or "double bluff". There is no advantage to be gained. All the werebear has to do is play like everyone else. It would be stupid of him/her to come out and draw attention to himself/herself- even in an attempted double bluff. The risk is not worth it.
What I have done makes it much more likely that the seer will dream of me tonight- something that the bear would want to avoid at all costs.
The fact is, if I was the bear, I would not have been stupid enough to link myself to the bear. It is not logical. And I'm slightly upset that you would think that I am truly that stupid.
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I am more suspicious of those who have hardly said a thing
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I agree with this point,
Wilwa.
If we are going to randomly kill someone, it makes sense (to me anyway) to kill someone quiet.
I say this because loud people always give you information to work with. Everyone knows that I am going to say plenty.
The Saucepan Man and
mormegil are also known for being extremely outspoken. This means that we are going to provide you with evidence to use either for us or against us. You will have an idea of where we stand.
That is not true of the quiet folk, which is why they are dangerous. They give us no information to base our accusations on.
When in doubt, lynch someone who you think won't say all that much. I know it seems pretty mean- but no matter who we lynch it'll be pretty mean since we obviously have no suspects at this time.
I have to be going, but I will be back towards the end of the day to help wrap things up.