[The Saucepan Man]

Here is a summary of the voting on Day 1 which, I believe, may well assist us in our deliberations today. It is in the order in which each vote was cast and identifies the state of the voting after each vote cast.

1. LMP for Gurthang (Gurthang 1)
2. Mithalwen for Gurthang (Gurthang 2)
3. CaptainofDespair for Mithalwen (Gurthang 2; Mithalwen 1)
4. SamwiseGamgee for Mithalwen (Gurthang 2; Mithalwen 2)
5. Durelin for Firefoot (Gurthang 2; Mithalwen 2; Firefoot 1)
6. Meneltarmacil for Mithalwen (Gurthang 2; Mithalwen 3; Firefoot 1)
7. Gil-Galad for Gurthang (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 3; Firefoot 1)
8. Boromir88 for Mithalwen (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 4; Firefoot 1)
9. Alcarillo for Mithalwen (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 5; Firefoot 1)
10. Nonnacedak for Mithalwen (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 6; Firefoot 1)
11. Mormegil for Meneltarmacil (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 6; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 1)
12. Laitaine for Alcarillo (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 6; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 1; Alcarillo 1)
13. Gurthang for Durelin (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 6; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 1; Alcarillo 1; Durelin 1)
14. Lalaith for Menltarmacil (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 6; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 2; Alcarillo 1; Durelin 1)
15. Arcticstorm for Mithalwen (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 7; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 2; Alcarillo 1; Durelin 1)
16. Dancing spawn for Mithalwen (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 8; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 2; Alcarillo 1; Durelin 1)
17. The Saucepan Man for Mithalwen (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 9; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 2; Alcarillo 1; Durelin 1)
18. Firefoot for Mithalwen (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 10; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 2; Alcarillo 1; Durelin 1)

Did not vote: Encaitare and wilwarin538 (although wilwa had earlier explained that she might not be able to vote).

Now, I believe that all of those who voted early on for Mithalwen are probably innocent of Werewolvery. The voting was too tight for another Wolf to risk casting a vote for her throughout much of the day. So I am fairly confident that the following are not Wolves (although any one of them, with the exception of course of Alcarillo, might still be the Black Beorning):

CaptainofDespair
SamwiseGamgee
Meneltarmacil
Boromir88
Alcarillo (as the Night’s events have so unfortunately proved)
Nonnacedak

CaptainofDespair and SamwiseGamgee could have been voting thinking that the votes would not accumulate as they did. But this would have been risky for a Wolf because much suspicion had already been cast in Mithalwen’s direction before the votes against her began to stack up.

I would also conclude that Gurthang is probably no Wolf because Mithalwen voted for him when there was a lot of suspicion against him. I do not believe that she would have voted for another Wolf in those circumstances.

Arcticstorm, dancing spawn, Firefoot and The Saucepan Man (yes, that’s me) all voted for Mithalwen when her death seemed likely or was a foregone conclusion, so their innocence is perhaps less easy to determine from the outcome. However, arctictorm and Firefoot both voiced firm suspicions against Mithalwen earlier in the Day. Dancing spawn’s vote sealed Mith’s fate and, although Mith was probably a gonner already given that I had indicated that I would most likely be voting for her and wilwa had said she was unlikely to vote, I really have no basis for suspecting her. Her contributions yesterday seemed sensible and helpful to our cause. As for me, I had already indicated that I would most probably be voting for Mithalwen before arcticstorm and dancing spawn voted. And I can assure you that I am neither Wolf nor Black Beorning.

In light of the above, I believe that we should today focus on those who went against the “bandwagonning” for Mithalwen. Of these, we can of course discount mormegil (who was in any event, as I have said, instrumental in flushing her out). The others are:

Durelin
Gil-Galad
Laitaine
Lalaith

Of these, I would say that Gil-Galad is particularly suspicious because he tried to switch the votes back on Gurthang just when they were beginning to gather for Mithalwen. With his vote, he brought it back to a tie between them. At the very least, he has a case to answer. I am also curious about Durelin’s seemingly random vote for Firefoot. She seemed very keen to divert the Village away from the ‘obvious’ suspects, one of whom we now know to have been a Wolf.

And we should not forget littlemanpoet who voted rashly yesterday for someone who I believe is not a Wolf, and who was mildly defended by Mithalwen.

The remaining two Villagers are Encaitare and wilwarin538, neither of whom voted. Wilwa gave advance warning that she might not be able to and, although that does not clear her, it makes her less suspicious in my eyes. Encaitare, on the other hand, contributed only once (and rather aggressively so) and chose not to vote. I suspect that she may be the Cobbler.

Based on the analysis above, my current main suspects are as follows (in order of suspicion):

1. Gil-Galad
2. Durelin
3. Laitaine
4. Encaitare
5. Lalaith
6. LMP

Of course, all of the above is aimed at hunting down a Wolf. I realise that it does not help us at all in identifying the Black Beorning. But then what do we have to go on as far as the Bear is concerned? I would dearly like to track him or her down too, but I fear it may be difficult. Does anyone have any ideas on that score?