Alright, let's just say that Smaug lives and somehow Bilbo gets home. He gives the Ring to Frodo etc, etc, and you get to the council of Elrond. Since Smaug lives there is no King under the Mountain. Gloin and Gimli are therefore not at the council. So who is the ninth person in the Fellowship? Another Elf? Also this would also mean that Balin and co. probably would not have set out to get Moria back. How would this change the course of the Fellowship? Would the Balrog have been awakened in the first place? If not, Gandalf would not have been lost. How about in Lothlorien? If they had had Gandalf and no dwarf would they have had more welcome? And all this is assuming Smaug did not go after the elves of the woodland realm. I don't know why he would but if he did would Aragorn have brought Gollum to them? I think not. Also, Legolas would not have then been at the Council of Elrond. What I'm trying to say is that Smaug living would have completely changed the course of LotR.
I think also that Sauron would have enlisted Smaug's help in the War, and also would have covered up his weak spot. I can hardly see Sauron sending an extremely powerful tool of his into battle with an obvious weak spot.
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